Shrugging Off War, Buyer Demand Continues to Strengthen Moving Deeper into Spring
Despite significant negative economic effects from the Iran war – rising interest rates; volatile financial markets; soaring oil and gas prices; and fears of increased inflation –Bay Area real estate markets saw relatively little impact in March. What effects that occurred usually impacted less expensive markets more sensitive to interest rate increases. So far, there has been no reaction comparable to what occurred last year with the tariff shock, and as of April 8th , virtually all economic indicators were turning in positive directions with the cease fire announcement.
The numbers of new listings, listings for sale and listings going into contract in March climbed substantially from February. Overbidding increased and listings sold faster. The second quarter is usually the most active of the year, often seeing the highest median sales prices.
As has been the case for the last 2 years, affluent markets typically remained more heated than less expensive markets, and house and townhouse markets considerably stronger than condo markets.
Report created in good faith using data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last period figures are preliminary estimates based on data available early in the following month. All numbers approximate and may change with latereported activity.
12 Months House Sales by City*
Santa Clara County HOUSE Prices
Median HOUSE Sales Prices & Highest Sales, $5 Million+*
Los Altos Hills
Los Altos
Saratoga
Palo Alto
Cupertino
Los Gatos/M.S.
Mountain View
Sunnyvale
Almaden Vly, S.J.
Willow Glen, S.J.
Campbell
Santa Clara (city)
Cambrian, S.J.
Evergreen, S.J.
San Martin
Berryessa, S.J. Milpitas
Blossom Vly, S.J.
Morgan Hill
Santa Teresa, S.J.
Central San Jose
South San Jose Gilroy
Alum Rock, S.J.
$5,438,000
$4,820,000
$4,300,000
$3,890,000
$3,415,000
$3,300,000
$2,700,000
$2,686,500
$2,300,000
$2,150,000
$2,129,000
$2,035,000
$1,865,000
$1,800,000
$1,695,000
$1,662,500
$1,600,000
$1,535,000
$1,500,000
$1,410,000
$1,250,000
$1,150,000
$1,125,000
$1,052,000
High Price Sale: $19,500,000
High Price Sale: $12,000,000
High Price Sale: $20,000,000
High Price Sale: $21,250,000
High Price Sale: $6,550,000
High Price Sale: $11,350,000
High Price Sale: $6,398,000
High Price Sale: $7,200,000
High Price Sale: $8,600,000
High Price Sale: $6,150,000
High Price Sale: $5,200,000
High Price Sale: $5,000,000
High Price Sale: $8,150,000
12 months sales through mid-March 2026*
Median house price in the Bay Area is approx. $1,300,000.
Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less. It is a general statistic that typically disguises a very wide range of prices in the underlying sales. It can be affected by a variety of factors, including market conditions, location, and median house and lot sizes.
This chart pertains to HOUSE sales only. The median condo sales price in the county was $750,000 and for townhouses, $1,271,500.
*12 months sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by mid-March 2026. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate. Not all sales are reported to MLS, and new sales are reported constantly.
Santa Clara County HOUSE Values
Median Dollar per Square Foot, 12 Months Sales*
Palo Alto
Los Altos
Cupertino
Mountain View
Los Altos Hills
Sunnyvale Saratoga
Los Gatos/M.S.
Santa Clara (city)
Cambrian, S.J. Campbell
Willow Glen, S.J.
Almaden Vly, S.J.
Berryessa, S.J. Milpitas
Evergreen, S.J.
Central S.J.
Blossom Vly, S.J.
Santa Teresa, S.J.
San Martin
Alum Rock, S.J.
South San Jose
Morgan Hill
Gilroy
$2,006
$1,885
12 months sales through mid-March 2026*
This chart pertains to HOUSE sales. The median condo $/sq.ft. value in the county was $684, and for townhouses, $825. per square foot
DOLLAR PER SQUARE FOOT ($/sq.ft.) is based upon interior living space and does not include garages, storage rooms, patios, decks or lot sizes. All things being equal, a smaller house will sell for a higher $/sq.ft.
*12 months sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by mid-March 2026. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.
Santa Clara County HOUSE Sizes
Median House Square Footage*
Los Altos Hills
Los Altos Saratoga
Los Gatos/M.S.
Morgan Hill
Gilroy
Almaden Vly, S.J.
San Martin Cupertino
Palo Alto
Evergreen, S.J.
Willow Glen, S.J.
Mountain View
Santa Teresa, S.J.
Blossom Vly, S.J. Sunnyvale
Berryessa, S.J. Campbell Milpitas
Cambrian, S.J.
Santa Clara (city)
South San Jose
Central S.J.
Alum Rock, S.J.
Saratoga
Los
12 Months Sales*
Comparing median sales prices between markets is not apples to apples, since the median size of homes vary so widely. Square footage is based upon interior living space and doesn’t include garages, attics, basements, rooms built without permit, decks, patios or lot size (though all these can add value).
This chart pertains to HOUSE sales. The median condo-sale size in the county was 1097 sq.ft., and for townhouses, 1543 sq.ft.
*12 months sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by midMarch 2026. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate. Not all sales are reported to MLS.
Los Altos Hills had a median lot size of 1.1 acres square feet
Santa Clara County Major Townhouse Markets
Median TOWNHOUSE Sales Prices for Selected Cities/Towns/Neighborhoods*
Saratoga
Los Altos
Palo Alto
Los Gatos/M.S.
Mountain View
Cupertino
Sunnyvale
Santa Clara (city)
Campbell
Milpitas
Willow Glen, S.J.
Berryessa, S.J.
Cambrian, S.J.
Evergreen, S.J.
Santa Teresa, S.J.
South San Jose
Central San Jose
Morgan Hill
Blossom Vly, S.J.
$2,000,000
$1,952,500
$1,860,000
$1,600,000
$1,575,000
$1,500,000
$1,484,500
$1,329,500
$1,285,000
$1,210,000
$1,180,000
$1,085,000
$1,033,000
$999,000
$957,500
$957,500
$945,000
$907,000
$865,000
Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less. It is a general statistic that typically disguises a very wide range of prices in the underlying sales.
Median townhouse size varies between markets as well as the year of construction and other characteristics.
12 months sales through mid-March 2026*
*12 months sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by mid-March 2026. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate. Not all sales are reported to MLS, and new sales are reported constantly.
Santa Clara County Major CONDO Markets
Median CONDO Sales Prices for Selected Cities/Towns/Neighborhoods*
Los Altos
Palo Alto
Cupertino
Saratoga
Morgan Hill
Milpitas
Sunnyvale
Santa Teresa, S.J.
Mountain View
Berryessa, S.J.
Evergreen, S.J.
Willow Glen, S.J.
South San Jose
Central San Jose
Santa Clara (city)
Campbell
Blossom Vly, S.J.
$1,804,000
$1,370,000
$1,152,500
$1,065,000
$880,000
$874,000 $875,000
$860,000
$825,000
$800,000
$750,000
$725,000
$725,000
$700,000
$700,000
$697,000
$600,000
Alum Rock, S.J.
$495,000
12 months sales through mid-March 2026*
Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less. It is a general statistic that typically disguises a very wide range of prices in the underlying sales.
Median condo size varies between markets as well as the year of construction and other characteristics.
The median condo sold in the 12-month period was a 2BR/2BA unit of 1103 sq.ft.
*12 months sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by mid-March 2026. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate. Not all sales are reported to MLS, and new sales are reported constantly.
Santa Clara County House Price Trend*
Median
House
Sales Prices,
Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that typically disguises a wide range of prices in the underlying sales. Seasonal fluctuations are common, and it’s not unusual for median sales prices to peak for the year in spring (Q2).
2015 – Present, by Quarter Pandemic hits
High-tech boom Pandemic boom AI boom Q2 2025
The Q1 2026 median house sales price was essentially unchanged on a year-over-year basis.* Q2 2022
Appreciation is typically measured year over year to account for market seasonality. Q2 2024 Q2 2021 Q2 2018 Q2 2019
*As reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Median sales price can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. All numbers approximate and subject to revision. Last quarter may change due to late reported sales.
Santa Clara County Townhouse Price Trend*
Median Townhouse Sales Prices, 2016 – Present, by Quarter
Year over year, the Q1 2026 median townhouse sales price fell about 3%. Median sales prices often rise and fall according to seasonal supply and demand trends and often peak for the year in Q2.
*As reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. All numbers approximate and subject to revision. Late reported sales may alter final quarter number.
Santa Clara County Condo Price Trend*
Median Condo Sales Prices, 2016 – Present, by Quarter
Year over year, the Q1 2026 median condo sales price dropped about 6.5%.* Q2 2024
Generally speaking, over the last 5-6 years, Bay Area median condo sales prices have not seen the appreciation rates common in house markets. Q2 2018
*As reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value.
76% of sales under $1,000,000 were condos and townhouses.
*Sales and listings pending sale reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by 3/31/26. Not all sales are reported to MLS. Listings pending sale may not close, and pending-sale list prices may not reflect final closing prices. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. Percentages rounded and may not add up to 100%.
3-Month Rolling, Median Dollar per Square Foot Values*
Median $/sq.ft. value is a very general statistic, disguising an enormous range of values in the underlying sales. It is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, which explain many of the regular ups and downs in this chart. Longer-term trends are much more meaningful than short-term changes.
DOLLAR PER SQUARE FOOT ($/sq.ft.) is based upon interior living space and does not include garages, storage rooms, patios, decks or lot size.
2007
Great recession & foreclosure crisis 2018
Pandemic hits ▲
2022
*3-month rolling median house sales values reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
Updated through March 2026
Overbidding List Prices in Santa Clara County
Percentage of Home Sales Closing over List Price, since 2018
Sales in 1 month mostly reflect market dynamics in the previous month.
Higher overbidding percentages signify more competition for new listings. 66% of all home sales sold for over list price in March 2026. By property type, 71% of houses, 72% of townhouses, and 39% of condos sold over asking.
Average Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage
Santa Clara County Over/Under Bidding: Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Overbidding statistics can be affected by strategic underpricing strategies.
100% = an average sales price at original list price. 110% = an average sales price 10% over asking price; 96% = 4% below asking price. March 2022 Sales
The average home sale sold about 4.5% over list price in March 2026. By property type: Houses sold about 6% over list price, townhouses, 4% over LP, and condos, 1% below LP.
April 2024
March 2020
Spring 2021
Pandemic boom
Spring 2019
Feb. 2025
April – Sept. 2023
| Interest rates soar | Pandemic hits
| Tariff shock
Updated through March 2026
New Listings Coming on Market
1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000
Santa Clara County Homes Market
Active & Coming-Soon Listings on 1st of Month*
1,074 1,390 1,801 2,059 2,041 1,674 1,617 1,496
As of 4/1/26, the number of listings was rapidly climbing and 12% higher year over year. Listing inventory will usually continue to rise through summer or fall.*
The # of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the # of new listings coming on market, 2) how quickly buyers put them into contract, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling their homes off the market without selling. Updated April 1, 2026
* Active/Coming-Soon listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all listings are posted to MLS. All numbers approximate. The number of active listings constantly changes.
Spring 2019
Santa Clara County Real Estate Market since 2018, 3-Month Rolling Average 0.0
The lower the MSI, the stronger the buyer demand as compared to the supply of listings on the market. By longterm, national norms, the current MSI reading indicates a very low supply of active listings, though it has been generally running higher than readings in the past 2-3 years.
| Pandemic boom ►
Market cools Market cools
Pandemic hits
Spring 2018
Spring 2025
Spring 2023
Spring 2024
Spring 2021Spring 2022
MSI measures how long it would take to sell the current inventory of active listings at the current rate of sale.
Updated through March 2026
3-month rolling average monthly data for residential transactions reported to MLSLISTINGS, per Broker Metrics. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported activity.
Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers (Going into Contract)
Santa Clara County: Absorption Rate by Month
March 2022
Spring 2021
Absorption rate is the comparison of buyer demand vs. the supply of homes on the market: The higher the percentage, the more heated and competitive the market. The absorption rate typically peaks in spring.
March 2024
May 2023
Feb. 2020
Spring 2019
Historic lows in interest rates
| Pandemic hits
| Interest rate changes impact the market
Feb. 2025 Tariff shock
*MLSLISTINGS reported data for houses, condos and townhouses, per Broker Metrics. Last month’s data estimated using available data, may change with late reported activity. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
Updated through March 2026
Monthly Home Sales Volume
Santa Clara County Market Dynamics & Seasonality
| Interest rate changes impact the market
Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month. Sales volume in March 2026 continued to climb moving into spring and rose about 5% year over year.
1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000
Santa Clara County Luxury Home Sales
Homes Selling for $5 Million+ since 2020
Closed sales mostly reflect acceptedoffer activity in the previous month.
The luxury home market is usually fiercely seasonal: Usually peaking in spring, slowing in summer, often rebounding in fall, and then plunging in mid-winter.
Santa Clara County Market Dynamics
The number of price reductions typically ebbs and flows by season but can also be affected by specific events in the economy and the market. It’s not unusual for price reductions to peak in late summer or autumn.
Price reductions in March 2026 rose 37% year over year. June 2025
Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, listings posted to site. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All
Average Days on Market: Speed of Sale
Santa Clara County: Market Dynamics & Seasonality
A measurement of how long it takes the homes that sell to go into contract, this statistic typically ebbs and flows per seasonal demand trends.
Jan.-Feb. 2021
Jan. 2023
Homes typically sell fastest in spring with the rush of new listings, and slowest in midwinter. In March 2026, the average days-onmarket was 22 days. By property type, the count for houses and townhouses was 18 days, and for condos, 42 days. Jan. 2025
Jan. 2024
Sales of houses, condos, townhouses reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks or to MLSLISTINGS per Broker Metrics. Data derived from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
Jan. 2026
Updated through March 2026
Selected Economic & Demographic Data
Santa Clara County Population Trends since 2010
U.S. Census Estimates, July 1st to July 1st
Population changes are driven by domestic and foreign migration into and out of the county, and by natural causes, i.e., births less deaths.
Pandemic hits ▲
Changes measured from July 1st of previous year to July 1st of labeled year.
1,786,040 1,812,054 1,837,853
2024 to 2025, the county saw negative domestic migration (-19,775), positive foreign migration (+18,658), and more births than deaths (+7608).
In California, net foreign immigration plunged approximately 65% in the last 12-month period and is expected to decline further in the period underway.
Santa Clara County since the pandemic struck: -175,636 in net domestic migration, +116,450 in net foreign migration, and +40,266 in natural change.
Estimates as of July 1 of each year. 2020-2025 data published March 26, 2026, by U.S. Census. The Census often revises numbers in subsequent estimates. All numbers to be considered approximate. Census numbers may not total perfectly due to “Population change that cannot be attributed to any specific demographic component.”
30-Year Conforming Fixed-Rate Loans, Weekly Average Readings*
Rates vary widely according to the property, price, borrower and lender.
Per Freddie Mac (FHLMC), on April 2, 2026, the weekly average, 30-year, conforming-loan interest rate rose to 6.46%, up from 5.98% before the Iran war began. The cease fire announced on 4/7/26 may exert downward pressure on interest rates.* Jan. 2026
war begins↑
*Freddie Mac (FHLMC), 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Weekly Average: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
Financial Markets,
2025 – 2026 YTD
Percentage Increases in S&P 500 & Nasdaq since 1/2/25
Nasdaq Index: % Change since 01/25
S&P 500 Index: % Change since 01/25
Tariff shock ►
Updated mid-day 4/8/26
Large changes in stock markets can dramatically affect household wealth, consumer confidence and housing markets, especially more affluent markets. Iran war begins ↑
Cease fire announced ↑
Data per MarketWatch.com, https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/comp/downloaddata and https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/download-data. Data from source deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Financial market values change constantly and all numbers to be considered approximate.
Crude Oil, Price per Barrel
Since February 2, 2026*
Dramatic ups and downs in oil prices can have considerable effects on manufacturer & consumer prices, transportation costs, inflation, consumer confidence and financial markets. Prices have often been volatile even on an intra-day basis as events, predictions, threats and announcements change.
| Iran war begins
Updated mid-day April 8, 2026
Cease fire announced |
*Per Yahoo! Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF/history/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers should be considered approximate.
Any impact of the Iran war ceasefire has not yet shown up in gas prices.
Updated mid-day 4/8/26
* U.S. Energy Information Administration, US Regular All Formulations Gas Price: Weighted average based on sampling of approximately 900 retail outlets. Not seasonally adjusted. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW and daily updates per https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors.
Economic Policy Uncertainty Index*
By Month since January 2000
The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reading has plummeted since the April 2025 tariff shock but rebounded higher in 2026 to a level very high by longterm standards. Still, the increase since the Iran war began has been muted.
The Economic Uncertainty Index is constructed from data analysis of 1) an index of search results from 10 large newspapers for terms related to economic and policy uncertainty, 2) reports by the Congressional Budget Office, and 3) the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters.*
Dotcom crash & 9/11
Tariff shock ►
Subprime crash & great recession
*Source: 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty' by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, 3component index, www.PolicyUncertainty.com, https://www.policyuncertainty.com/us_monthly.html.
Federal Funds Interest Rate since 1981
& Economic Interventions by Federal Reserve Bank*
Updated March 18, 2026
◄ Early 1980’s: Fed aggressively raises fed funds target rate to lower inflation rate
In September 2024, the Fed reduced the rate by a half point, and then by a quarter point in November and December. In September, October and December 2025, the rate was reduced by a quarter point each time. There were no changes in January or February 2026. Additional adjustments in 2026 are a topic of much discussion and uncertainty. Early 1990’s recession: Fed drops target interest rate 18 times, 1990-92
2022/2023: Acting to counter inflation, Fed increases target rate 11 times, then pauses 8/2023 – 8/2024
Subprime crash: Fed drops rate 10 times to effectively zero in 2007-08
2019, 2020, 2021: With the pandemic, the Fed drops the rate to effectively zero
High-tech & pandemic booms
Subprime boom
* Per Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and New York; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS; Last reading per https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr. Other data referenced from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market.
City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.
Photo use under the Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
