San Mateo County Real Estate
March 2026 Report with market data through February
The Market Accelerates
Moving into spring, rising buyer demand vs. an inadequate supply of homes for sale is creating a rapidly heating market characterized by increasing buyer competition, faster sales and more overbidding of asking price. The upcoming months are typically the most active of the year and on current trends, conditions are expected to generate continuing upward pressure on home values. Median home sales prices often hit their calendar-year highs in spring, due to the severe imbalance between supply and demand, as well as a seasonal surge in luxury home sales. As was the case last year, houses are seeing much stronger market conditions than condos, and more affluent buyers continue to play an outsized role in demand and home-price appreciation. The wild card in coming months is what sustained effects, if any, the Iran war may have on inflation, interest rates, financial markets and consumer confidence. Barring an extreme decline in economic conditions, we currently consider a substantial negative impact on the county’s housing market unlikely.
Report created in good faith using data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last period figures are preliminary estimates based on data available early in the following month. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported activity.
Mortgage Interest Rates, August 2022 to 2026 YTD
30-Year Conforming Fixed-Rate Loans, Weekly Average Readings*
Rates vary widely according to the property, price, borrower and lender.
Per Freddie Mac (FHLMC), on March 5, 2026, the weeklyaverage, 30-year,conforming-loaninterest rate, illustrated on this chart, was 6%, essentially unchanged from the previous week. (However, as of 3/6/26, the daily average rate has risen to 6.14%, increasing 15 basis points since the Iran war began.)*
3/30/23
*Freddie Mac (FHLMC), 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Weekly Average: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
Crude Oil, Price per Barrel
Since February 2, 2026*
Dramatic ups and downs in oil prices, if sustained, can have considerable effects on consumer prices, transportation costs, inflation, consumer confidence and financial markets.
*Per Yahoo! Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF/history/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers should be considered approximate.
Updated through March 6, 2026
Iran war begins
Financial Markets, 2025 – 2026
YTD
Percentage Increases in S&P 500 & Nasdaq since 1/2/25
Nasdaq Index: % Change since 01/25
S&P 500 Index: % Change since 01/25
Large changes in stock markets can dramatically affect household wealth, consumer confidence and housing markets, especially more affluent markets.
Data per MarketWatch.com, https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/comp/downloaddata and https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/download-data. Data from source deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Financial market values change constantly and all numbers to be considered approximate.
San Mateo County House Price Trendssince 2005
Monthly Median House Sales Prices, 3-Month Rolling*
The county ’s 3-month-rolling median
house sales price in February 2026 rose about 4% year over year. Median sales prices typically peak in late spring.
Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic, disguising an enormous range of sales prices in the underlying sales. It is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, which explain many of the regular ups and downs in this chart.
High-tech boom
$2,000,000 $1,800,000 $1,600,000 $1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $-
*3-month-rolling
San
Mateo County Condo Price Trendssince 2005
3-Month-Rolling Median Condo Sales Price
Year over year, the 3-monthrolling median condo sales price in February 2026 fell about 6%.
Generally speaking, over the last 5-6 years, Bay Area median condo sales prices have not seen the appreciation rates common in house markets. Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic, often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, and longer-term trends are more meaningful than short-term changes. $900,000 $800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000
Great recession
Pandemic hits
Appreciation is typically measured year over year to account for market seasonality.
Updated through February 2026
3-Month-Rolling,MedianDollarperSquare Foot Values*
Median $/sq.ft. value is a very general statistic, disguising an enormous range of values in the underlying sales. It is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value (such as changes in the median size of homes sold). Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, which explain many of the regular ups and downs in this chart. Longer-term trends are much more meaningful than short-term changes.
Houses Condos
*3-month rolling median sales values reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Analysis
and
Median Dollar per Square Foot Value by Home Size
SanMateoCounty2024&2025Sales,and Year-over-YearPercentage Change*
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon interior living space and doesn’t include garages, attics, basements, rooms built without permit, decks, patios or lot size (though these can add value). All things being equal, a smaller home will typically sell for a higher dollar per square foot value. But the largest homes are usually located in more affluent and expensive markets, often on larger lots, and these saw the highest 2024 to 2025 appreciation rates.
Median House Sales Prices: 3-Bedroom & 4-Bedroom Homes
by Greater Bay Area County, 12 Months Sales*
$2,400,000
$1,830,000
$2,160,000
$1,880,000
$2,091,000
$1,580,000
$1,787,500
$1,325,000
$1,550,000
$1,175,000
$1,360,000
$1,206,000
$1,107,500
$875,000
$971,500
$780,000
$970,000
$852,500
$857,500
$785,000
$680,000
$565,000
Median House Sales Prices
4BR/3BA, 2000 - 2300 Sq.Ft. House
3BR/2BA, 1400 - 1750 Sq.Ft. House
Median price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that typically disguises an enormous range of sales prices in the individual underlying sales. Counties contain submarkets of widely different values. How these prices apply to any particular home is unknown without a comparative market analysis.
Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance in the 12 months through 2/28/26. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all sales are reported to MLS. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
Contra Costa Monterey Sonoma Solano
San Mateo
Santa Clara
San Francisco
Marin Alameda
Santa Cruz
Napa
Median House Dollar per Square Foot Values
by Greater Bay Area County, 12 Months Sales*
$1,209
$1,009
$1,155
$1,132
$981
$951
$865
$810
$758
$730
$743
$644
$558
$528
Median House $/Sq.Ft. Values
4BR/3BA, 2000 - 2300 Sq.Ft. House Napa
$556
$446
$509
$404
$501 $451
$362
3BR/2BA, 1400 - 1750 Sq.Ft. House
$/sq.ft. is based upon interior living space and doesn’t include garages, attics, basements, rooms built without permit, decks or lot size. All things being equal, a smaller home will typically sell for a higher $/sq.ft. value.
Counties contain submarkets of widely different values. How these values apply to any particular home is unknown without a comparative market analysis.
New Listings Coming on Market
San Mateo County Market Dynamics & Seasonality
The number of new listings typically climbs through spring, declines in mid-summer, rebounds in September, and plunges in December.
The number of new listings coming on market ebbs and flows by seasonal trends, though it can be affected by specific market dynamics.
The number of new listings in February 2026 continued to rise and was up slightly year over year. It should continue to rise in coming months. April 2025 Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/,
San Mateo County Homes Market
As of 3/1/26, the number of listings was climbing, but slightly lower year over year. Listing inventory will usually continue to increase through summer or fall.*
The # of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the # of new listings coming on market, 2) how quickly buyers put them into contract, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling their homes off the market without selling.
* Active/Coming-Soon listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance. Data from sources deemed reliable butmaycontain errorsand subject torevision. Not alllistingsarepostedtoMLS.Allnumbers approximate. The number of active listings constantly changes.
MSImeasures how long it would taketo sell thecurrent inventory of active listings at the 12-month rate of sale. The lower the MSI, the stronger the buyer demand as compared to the supply of listings on the market.
As buyers jump back into the market in the new year faster than sellers list their homes, March is typically one of the months in which the supply of listings is lowest as compared to demand. Most of these are exceptionally low MSI readings, signifying very heated/competitive markets –especially for houses.
Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers
Absorption rate is the comparison of buyer demand vs. the supply of homes on the market: The higher the percentage, the more heated and competitive the market. Absorption rate usually increases in spring.
*MLSLISTINGS reported data for houses, condos and townhouses, per Broker Metrics. Last month’s data estimated using available data, may change with late reported
and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
Months
Supply of Inventory (MSI) – of Active Listings on Market
San Mateo County Real Estate Market since 2018, 3-Month Rolling Average
MSI measures how long it would take to sell the current inventory of active listings at the current rate of sale. The lower the MSI, the stronger the buyer demand as compared to the supply of listings on the market. By long-term, national trends, the current reading remains very low.
Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month. The number of sales in February 2026 rebounded from the January low and rose 14% year over year. Sales volume should increase quickly in coming months.
San Mateo County Luxury Home Sales
Overbidding List Prices in San Mateo County
Percentage of Home Sales Closing over List Price
Sales in 1 month mostly reflect market
dynamics in the previous month. Seasonal ebbs and flows are typical.
Higher overbidding percentages signify more competition for new listings, and overbidding normally peaks in spring. In February 2026, 59% of home sales sold for over asking price. For houses alone, the percentage was 66%, for townhouses, 57%, and for condos, 26%.
Average Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage
San Mateo County Market Dynamics & Seasonality
100% = an average sales price at original list price. 110% = an average sales price 10% over asking price; 96% = 4% below asking price. This statistic is a lagging indicator of market activity 3-6 weeks earlier.
The average home sale in February 2026 sold about 5% above list price, a sharp increase from recent months. Houses alone averaged a sales price about 6.5% over list price, townhouses 2.5% over LP, and condos 3.5% below LP.
Average Days on Market: Speed of Sale
San Mateo County: Market Dynamics & Seasonality buyers respond to the rush of new listings. dominated by listings that have been on the market for longer periods of time. In mid-winter, sales are
Avg. days on market in February 2026 was 33 days, but houses (28 days) sold faster than townhouses (33 days) and much faster than condos (57 days). Homes
Time to acceptance of offer for sold listings
Price Reductions on Active Listings
San Mateo County Market Dynamics & Seasonality
The number of price reductions typically ebbs and flows by season but can also be affected by specific events in the economy and the market. Price reductions often peak in October before the midwinter holiday slowdown begins, though that did not occur in 2025 due to the tariff shock.
Additional Economic & Demographic Data
San Mateo County Population
Breakdown Estimates by Race/Ancestry
The Bay Area has one of the most diverse populations in the world.
Of residents of Hispanic/Latino heritage, the largest group is Mexican. Native American, Native Hawaiian & Pacific Islander
Asian
Of residents of Asian heritage, the 2 largest groups are Chinese & Filipino.
Approximately 36% of the population was foreign-born.
U.S. Census 7/1/24 estimates. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Estimates published with significant margins of error and should be considered very approximate. Due to the way Census data is collected & sorted, percentages do not add up to 100%.
As self-identified by residents: Categories as delineated by U.S. Census.
VIX Volatility Index*
By Day in 2025
“The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, is a real-time market index representing the [stock] market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days. Investors use the VIX to measure the level of risk, fear, or stress in the market when making investment decisions.” Quote from Investopedia
► On 3/6/26, the VIX Volatility Index hit its highest point since the tariff shock in April 2025.
Mar-25
*CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), per https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/vix_historical_data/ and/or Yahoo! Finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/history/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers approximate.
The CAPE ratio is a stock market valuation measure created by economist Robert Shiller. It is defined as the current price of the S&P 500 divided by the moving-average of 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings and is principally used to assess likely future returns over longer periods. A higher CAPE ratio can suggest investors are expecting higher future growth, or that the stock market is overvalued.
As of early 2026, the CAPE ratio has been running at its highest readings since the dotcom bubble.
Economic Policy Uncertainty Index*
By Month since January 2000
The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reading has plummeted since the April 2025 tariff shock butreboundedhigher in JanuaryandFebruary2026 toa level very high by long-term standards. This chart pre-dates the start of the Iran war.
Tariff shock►
The Economic Uncertainty Index is constructed from data analysis of 1) an index of search results from 10 large newspapers for terms related to economic and policy uncertainty, 2) reports by the Congressional Budget Office, and 3) the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters.*
*Source: 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty' by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, 3component index, www.PolicyUncertainty.com, https://www.policyuncertainty.com/us_monthly.html.
U.S. Jobs Report*
MonthlyChangeinNumber of Jobs, in Thousands*
Note: BLS often revises its monthly estimates, sometimes very substantially.
*U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “All employees, thousands, total nonfarm, seasonally adjusted”: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output view=net 1mth. Last 2 readings are labeled “preliminary” and often substantially revised. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. Monthly Change in U.S. NonFarm Employment, in Thousands Employment trends and job security continue to be major concerns of consumers and economists.
Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities,
views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.
Photo use under the Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.