Shrugging Off War, Buyer Demand Continues to Strengthen Moving Deeper into Spring
Despite significant negative economic effects from the Iran war – rising interest rates; volatile financial markets; soaring oil and gas prices; and fears of increased inflation –Bay Area real estate markets saw relatively little impact in March. What effects that occurred usually impacted less expensive markets more sensitive to interest rate increases. It is also possible that some sellers may have delayed listing their homes as they waited for more clarity regarding economic conditions. But so far, there has been no reaction comparable to what occurred last year with the tariff shock, and as of April 8th , virtually all economic indicators were turning in positive directions with the cease fire announcement.
The number of listings going into contract, total sales and luxury home sales in March climbed significantly month over month and year over year, but the number of listings for sale did not keep pace. As buyers competed for an inadequate supply of homes for sale, the absorption rate and overbidding increased and listings sold faster. This pressure of rising demand may lead to increased price appreciation in the second quarter. As has been the case for the last 2 years, affluent markets typically remained more heated than less expensive markets, and house markets considerably stronger than condo markets.
Report created in good faith using data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last period figures are preliminary estimates based on data available early in the following month. All numbers approximate and may change with latereported activity.
This chart pertains to HOUSE sales. There were also
San Mateo County Home Prices
Median House Sales Prices & High Sales, $10 Million+*
Atherton
Hillsborough
Portola Valley
Woodside
Menlo Park
Burlingame
San Carlos
Redwood Shores
Belmont
Redwood City
Foster City
Millbrae
San Mateo (city)
Half Moon Bay
El Granada
San Bruno
Pacifica
Brisbane
South SF
Daly City
East Palo Alto
Pescadero
$10,200,000
$5,650,000
$4,262,500
$3,885,000
$3,300,000
$3,000,000
$2,650,000
$2,590,000
$2,400,000
$2,250,000
$2,200,000
$2,200,000
$2,150,000
$1,788,000
$1,450,000
$1,450,000
$1,330,000
$1,280,000
$1,280,000
$1,210,000
$1,099,500
$1,000,000
High Price Sale: $45,500,000
High Price Sale: $25,000,000
High Price Sale: $56,000,000
High Price Sale: $85,000,000
High Price Sale: $12,000,000
High Price Sale: $17,000,000
12 months sales through mid-March 2026*
Includes Moss Beach and Montara
Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less. It is a general statistic that typically disguises a very wide range of prices in the underlying sales. It can be affected by a variety of factors, including market conditions and location, as well as median house and lot sizes.
This chart pertains to HOUSE sales only. The median condo sales price in the county was $770,000 and for townhouses, $1,371,500.
Many factors affect home values: architectural style, quality of construction, square footage, condition, amenities, light, views, privacy, outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on.
*12 months sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by mid-March 2026. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate. Not all sales are reported to MLS.
San Mateo County House Values
Median Dollar per Square Foot Values*
Atherton
Menlo Park
Portola Valley
Hillsborough
Burlingame
San Carlos
Woodside
Belmont
San Mateo (city)
Redwood Shores
Redwood City
Millbrae
Foster City
San Bruno
South SF
Pacifica
Half Moon Bay
El Granada
East Palo Alto
Daly City
Brisbane
$2,180
$1,652
$1,587
$1,507
$1,491
$1,400
$1,332
$1,255
$1,244
$1,242
$1,217
$812
$810
*12 months sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by mid-March 2026. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.
12 Months Sales*
DOLLAR PER SQUARE FOOT ($/sq.ft.) is based upon interior living space and does not include garages, storage rooms, patios, decks or lot size. All things being equal, a smaller house will typically sell for a higher $/sq.ft.
This chart pertains to HOUSE sales. The median condo $/sq.ft. value in the county was $729, and for townhouses, $867. Includes Moss Beach and Montara per square foot
San Mateo County Home Sizes
Median House Square Footage*
Atherton
Hillsborough
Portola
Woodside
Half
Burlingame
Belmont
Redwood Shores
San
Menlo
Foster
Redwood
Brisbane
Comparing median prices between markets is not apples to apples, since the median size of homes vary so widely. Square footage is based upon interior living space and doesn’t include garages, attics, basements, rooms built without permit, decks, patios or lot size (though these can all add value). square feet
12 Months Sales* Includes Moss Beach and Montara
This chart pertains to HOUSE sales. The median condo-sale size in the county was 1090 sq.ft., and for townhouses, 1540 sq.ft.
Markets with significantly larger median lot sizes than the county norm are delineated.
*12 months sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by mid-March 2026. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.
San Mateo County Condo & Townhouse Markets
Median Sales Prices: Selected Cities*
San Bruno
Daly City
San Mateo (city)
South SF
Millbrae
Redwood City
Foster City
Redwood Shores
San Carlos
Burlingame
Menlo Park
$457,000
$555,000
$738,000
$752,500
$760,000
$880,000
$888,000
$925,000
$1,009,000
$1,037,500
$1,130,000
Half Moon Bay
Pacifica
San Mateo (city)
Foster City
Redwood City
Redwood Shores
San Carlos
Menlo Park
$945,000
$1,250,000
$1,330,000
$1,395,000
$1,400,000
$1,480,000
$1,602,500
$2,250,000
12 Months Sales*
Median Condo Sales Prices: Selected Markets
Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less. It is a general statistic that typically disguises a very wide range of prices in the underlying sales. It can be affected by a variety of factors, including market conditions, location and median home sizes.
Median Townhouse Sales Prices: Selected Markets
San Mateo County Residential Market
2026 YTD Home Sales by Price Segment*
$10,000,000+
$5,000,000 - $9,999,999
$4,000,000 - $4,999,999
Sales by Property Type*
• House 75%
• Condo 17%
$3,000,000$3,999,999
$2,000,000 – $2,999,999
$1,500,000 - $1,999,999 Under $1,000,000
74% of sales under $1,000,000 were condos and townhouses.
$1,000,000 - $1,499,999
• Townhouse 8% *Sales and listings pending sale reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by 3/31/26. Not all sales are reported to MLS. Listings pending sale may not close, and pending-sale list prices may not reflect final closing prices. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. Percentages rounded and may not add up to 100%.
San Mateo County House Price Trends
Median
House Sales Prices, 2015 – Present, by Quarter
Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that disguises a wide range of prices in the underlying sales.
Seasonal fluctuations are common, and it’s not unusual for median sales prices to peak for the calendar year in spring (Q2).
$1,200,000
$1,000,000
$800,000
The Q1 2026 median house sales price rose about 3% year-over-year.
Pandemic hits
Appreciation is typically measured year over year to account for market seasonality.
$1,210,000 $1,146,500 $1,080,000 $1,085,000 $1,235,000 $1,210,000 $1,184,000 $1,175,000 $1,393,000 $1,308,000 $1,408,000 $1,480,000 $1,522,500 $1,500,000 $1,425,000 $1,410,000 $1,575,000 $1,450,000 $1,450,000 $1,525,000 $1,625,000 $1,664,944 $1,565,000 $1,750,000 $1,950,000 $1,900,500 $1,900,000 $1,980,000 $2,103,000 $1,780,000 $1,731,500 $1,740,000 $1,900,000
Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance. Median sales price can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. All numbers are approximate and subject to revision. Last quarter may change with late reported sales.
San Mateo County Condo Price Trends since 2005
3-Month-Rolling Median Condo Sales Price
Generally speaking, over the last 5-6 years, Bay Area median condo sales prices have not seen the appreciation rates common in house markets.
Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic, often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, and longer-term trends are more meaningful than short-term changes.
2007
Year over year, the 3-monthrolling median condo sales price in March 2026 fell about 8%.
2022
2018
Pandemic hits ▲ 2023
Great recession
Appreciation is typically measured year over year to account for market seasonality.
Updated through March 2026
$200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $700,000 $800,000 $900,000
3-Month-Rolling, Median Dollar per Square Foot Values*
Median $/sq.ft. value is a very general statistic, disguising an enormous range of values in the underlying sales. It is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value (such as changes in the median size of homes sold). Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, which explain many of the regular ups and downs in this chart. Longer-term trends are much more meaningful than short-term changes.
2006-2007
*3-month rolling median sales values reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Analysis may contain
and
through March 2026
New Listings Coming on Market
San Mateo County Homes Market
As of 4/1/26, the number of listings was rapidly climbing, but slightly lower year over year. Listing inventory will usually continue to increase through summer or fall.*
The # of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the # of new listings coming on market, 2) how quickly buyers put them into contract, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling their homes off the market without selling. Updated April 1, 2026
* Active/Coming-Soon listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all listings are posted to MLS. All numbers approximate. The number of active listings constantly changes.
Homes for Sale in San Mateo County
Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers (Going into Contract)
San Mateo County: Absorption Rate by Month
March 2022
May 2021
Absorption rate is the comparison of buyer demand vs. the supply of homes on the market: The higher the percentage, the more heated and competitive the market.
Absorption rate has been rising moving deeper into the new year’s market.
March 2024
May 2023
Historic lows in interest rates
| Pandemic hits
| Interest rate changes impact the market
*MLSLISTINGS reported data for houses, condos and townhouses, per Broker Metrics. Last month’s data estimated using available data, may change with late reported activity. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
Updated through March 2026
Months
San Mateo County Real Estate Market since 2018, 3-Month Rolling Average
MSI measures how long it would take to sell the current inventory of active listings at the current rate of sale. The lower the MSI, the stronger the buyer demand as compared to the supply of listings on the market. By long-term, national trends, the current reading remains very low.
Monthly Sales Volume
San Mateo County Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month. The number of sales in March 2026 continued to climb and rose about 7% year over year.
Pandemic boom Interest rate changes impact the market
Sales of houses, condos, townhouses reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last month estimated based on available information and may change with late reported sales. All numbers approximate.
San Mateo County Luxury Home Sales
Homes Selling for $5 Million+
| Peak of pandemic boom |
June-Aug. 2023
The luxury home market is usually fiercely seasonal: High sales activity in spring, slowing in summer, typically rebounding in fall, and plunging in mid-winter. Luxury sales in March 2026 rose 27% year over year.
June 2024 Oct. 2024
Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month.
Updated through March 2026
Home sales reported to Norcal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last month estimated from available data and may change with late-reported sales. All numbers approximate.
Overbidding List Prices in San Mateo County
Percentage of Home Sales Closing over List Price
Sales in 1 month mostly reflect market dynamics in the previous month. Seasonal ebbs and flows are typical.
▲ Pandemic hits More overbidding ▲ Spring 2021
MidWinter Spring 2022
Peak of pandemic boom | Interest rates soar
MidWinter May 2023
Higher overbidding percentages signify more competition for new listings, and overbidding normally peaks in spring. In March 2026, 67% of home sales sold for over asking price. For houses alone, the percentage was 74%, for townhouses, 55%, and for condos, 34%.
Spring 2024
MidWinter
Sales data reported to NORCAL MLS® ALLIANCE, per Infosparks. Reflecting the percentage of sales closing at sales prices over the final list prices. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
MidWinter Spring 2025
MidWinter
Updated through March 2026
Average Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage
San Mateo County Market Dynamics & Seasonality
100% = an average sales price at original list price. 110% = an average sales price 10% over asking price; 96% = 4% below asking price. This statistic is a lagging indicator of market activity 3-6 weeks earlier.
End 2012-2018 high-tech boom
March 2022
Peak of pandemic boom
The average home sale in March 2026 sold 7% above list price, its highest % since spring 2022. Houses alone averaged a sales price about 9% over list price, townhouses 1.5% over LP, and condos 1% over LP.
| Interest rates soar
Updated through March 2026
Sales of houses, condos, townhouses reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Data derived from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late reported sales.
Average Days on Market: Speed of Sale
San Mateo County: Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Homes typically sell fastest in spring as buyers respond to the rush of new listings. In mid-winter, sales are dominated by listings that have been on the market for longer periods of time.
Avg. days on market in March 2026 was 21 days, but houses (19 days) and townhouses (17 days) sold faster than condos (29 days). Jan.
Updated through March 2026
Selected Economic & Demographic Data
San Mateo County Population Trends since 2010
U.S. Census Estimates, July 1st to July 1st
719,699
Pandemic hits ▲
Changes measured from July 1st of previous year to July 1st of labeled year.
728,344 739,224 748,661 757,204 765,055 767,906768,901768,410 764,810 762,639 739,463 732,245733,949 740,627
Population changes are driven by domestic and foreign migration into and out of the county, and by natural causes, i.e., births less deaths.
2024 to 2025, the county saw negative domestic migration (-4110), positive foreign migration (+4737), and more births than deaths (+2279). In California, net foreign immigration plunged approximately 65% in the last 12-month period and is expected to decline further in the period underway.
San Mateo County since the pandemic struck: -66,727 in net domestic migration, +34,607 in net foreign migration, and +12,212 in natural change.
Estimates as of July 1 of each year. 2020-2025 data published March 26, 2026, by U.S. Census. The Census often revises numbers in subsequent estimates. All numbers to be considered approximate. Census numbers may not total perfectly due to “Population change that cannot be attributed to any specific demographic component.”
Mortgage Interest Rates, August 2022 to 2026 YTD
30-Year Conforming Fixed-Rate Loans, Weekly Average Readings*
Rates vary widely according to the property, price, borrower and lender.
Per Freddie Mac (FHLMC), on April 2, 2026, the weekly average, 30-year, conforming-loan interest rate rose to 6.46%, up from 5.98% before the Iran war began. The cease fire announced on 4/7/26 may exert downward pressure on interest rates.* Jan. 2026
war begins↑
*Freddie Mac (FHLMC), 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Weekly Average: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
Financial Markets,
2025 – 2026 YTD
Percentage Increases in S&P 500 & Nasdaq since 1/2/25
Nasdaq Index: % Change since 01/25
S&P 500 Index: % Change since 01/25
Tariff shock ►
Updated mid-day 4/8/26
Large changes in stock markets can dramatically affect household wealth, consumer confidence and housing markets, especially more affluent markets. Iran war begins ↑
Cease fire announced ↑
Data per MarketWatch.com, https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/comp/downloaddata and https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/download-data. Data from source deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Financial market values change constantly and all numbers to be considered approximate.
Crude Oil, Price per Barrel
Since February 2, 2026*
Dramatic ups and downs in oil prices can have considerable effects on manufacturer & consumer prices, transportation costs, inflation, consumer confidence and financial markets. Prices have often been volatile even on an intra-day basis as events, predictions, threats and announcements change.
| Iran war begins
Updated mid-day April 8, 2026
Cease fire announced |
*Per Yahoo! Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF/history/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers should be considered approximate.
Any impact of the Iran war ceasefire has not yet shown up in gas prices.
Updated mid-day 4/8/26
* U.S. Energy Information Administration, US Regular All Formulations Gas Price: Weighted average based on sampling of approximately 900 retail outlets. Not seasonally adjusted. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW and daily updates per https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors.
Economic Policy Uncertainty Index*
By Month since January 2000
The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reading has plummeted since the April 2025 tariff shock but rebounded higher in 2026 to a level very high by longterm standards. Still, the increase since the Iran war began has been muted.
The Economic Uncertainty Index is constructed from data analysis of 1) an index of search results from 10 large newspapers for terms related to economic and policy uncertainty, 2) reports by the Congressional Budget Office, and 3) the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters.*
Dotcom crash & 9/11
Tariff shock ►
Subprime crash & great recession
*Source: 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty' by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, 3component index, www.PolicyUncertainty.com, https://www.policyuncertainty.com/us_monthly.html.
Federal Funds Interest Rate since 1981
& Economic Interventions by Federal Reserve Bank*
Updated March 18, 2026
◄ Early 1980’s: Fed aggressively raises fed funds target rate to lower inflation rate
In September 2024, the Fed reduced the rate by a half point, and then by a quarter point in November and December. In September, October and December 2025, the rate was reduced by a quarter point each time. There were no changes in January or February 2026. Additional adjustments in 2026 are a topic of much discussion and uncertainty. Early 1990’s recession: Fed drops target interest rate 18 times, 1990-92
Dotcom crash, 9/11 attack: Fed drops fed fund rate 12 times, 2001-02
Junk bond boom
Dotcom boom
2022/2023: Acting to counter inflation, Fed increases target rate 11 times, then pauses 8/2023 – 8/2024
Subprime crash: Fed drops rate 10 times to effectively zero in 2007-08
2019, 2020, 2021: With the pandemic, the Fed drops the rate to effectively zero
High-tech & pandemic booms
Subprime boom
* Per Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and New York; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS; Last reading per https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr. Other data referenced from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.
Photo use under the Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.