San Francisco Market Report - March 2026.pdf

San Francisco Real Estate

March 2026 Report with market data through February

The Market Continues to Accelerate in Possibly the Hottest Market in the Country

Moving into spring, soaring buyer demand vs. an extremely inadequate supply of homes for sale continues to foster ferocious buyer competition, faster sales, more overbidding and rapidly rising home prices. Luxury home sales rose over 200% year over year to hit their highest month-of-February count ever. The upcoming months are typically among the most active of the year and median home sales prices often hit their calendar-year highs in spring – though that did not happen in 2025 due to autumn’s enormous AI-driven market boom. As has been the case in recent years, houses are seeing stronger market conditions than condos, but SF’s condo market is also rebounding dramatically. More affluent buyers continue to play an outsized role in demand and home- price appreciation.

The wild card in coming months is what sustained effects, if any, the Iran war

may have on inflation, interest rates, financial markets and consumer confidence. Barring an extreme decline in economic conditions, we currently consider a significant negative impact on the city’s housing market unlikely.

Report created in good faith using data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last period figures are preliminary estimates based on data available early in the following month. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported activity.

San Francisco HOUSE Price Trendssince 1990

Monthly Median House Sales Prices, 3-Month Rolling

The 3-month-rolling median house sales price in February 2026, $1,750,000, illustrated here, rose 16% year-over-year. On a single-month basis (not 3-month-rolling) the median house sales price in February, $1,963,000, rose almost 23% year over year. Median sales prices typically peak in spring.

Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less.It isa very generalstatistic, disguising an enormous range of sales prices in the underlying sales. It is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, which explain many of the regular ups and downs in this chart. Median sales prices typically peak for the year in spring.

$1,600,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000

$800,000 $1,400,000

San Francisco CONDO Price Trends

Median Condo Sales Price, 3-Month Rolling since 2005

The 3-month-rolling median condo sales price in

February 2026, $1,137,500 – illustrated on this chart – rose over 8% year over year. (The single month median condo price, $1,225,000, rose 12%.)

In the last 5-6 years, SF median condo sales prices have not seen the appreciation rates common in its house market, but they are appreciating rapidly now.

Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic, often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, and longer-term trends are more meaningful than short-term changes.

$900,000 $800,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $1,300,000 $1,200,000 $1,100,000 $1,000,000 $700,000

3-Month-Rolling,MedianDollarperSquareFoot Values*

Median $/sq.ft. value is a general statistic, disguising an enormous range of values in the underlying sales. It is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, which explain many of the regular ups and downs in this chart.

2005-2006-2007-2008

Great recession & foreclosure crisis

The 3-month-rolling median $/sq.ft. house value in February 2026 rose about 12% year over year; the median condo value rose about 4%.

San Francisco CONDO Prices: Downtown vs. Non-Downtown

12-Month-Rolling, Median 2-Bedroom Condo Sales Prices since 2005*

Comparing median 2-bedroom condo sales prices in the greater Downtown/South of Market/Civic Center area (the center of large-project, newcondo construction, office buildings and high-tech employment) – the blue line – with the rest of San Francisco (mostly smaller, older buildings, in less urban environments) – the green line.

Median sales prices also vary widely within these two broad regions.

Condo Market in Non-Downtown Area

Greater Downtown/SoMa Condo Market

NOTE: 12-month-rolling sales data smooths the median sales price trend lines and removes seasonality from the analysis, but it can lag short-term changes. Updated through February 2026

$900,000 $800,000 $700,000 $1,400,000 $1,300,000 $1,200,000

$600,000 $1,100,000

$1,000,000

Median Dollar per Square Foot Value by Home Size

San Francisco 2024 & 2025 Sales, and Year-over-Year Percentage Change*

Dollar per Square Foot is based upon interior living space and doesn’t include garages, attics,

basements, rooms built without permit, decks, patios or lot size (though these can add value).

All things being equal, a smaller home will typically sell for a higher dollar per square foot value.

But larger homes are typically located in more affluent and expensive neighborhoods, and these saw the highest 2024 to 2025 appreciation rates. $1,129

$1,056 $1,062 $1,063 $1,067 $1,038 $1,000

969

*Sales reported to NorCal Alliance.Year-over-yearchangesin $/sq.ft.canbeaffected by otherfactorsbesides changesin fairmarketvalue.Howthese valuesapply toanyspecifichomeis unknown withouta comparative marketanalysis.Data derived from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and is subject to revision. All numbers approximate.

$1,266 $1,471

San Francisco Luxury Home Sales

Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month. The market for luxury homes fluctuates by season, with spring and fall typically the most active markets of the year. $5 million+ home sales in February 2026 were 220% higher than in February 2025, and the highest month-of-February count ever.

Median House Sales Prices: 3-Bedroom & 4-Bedroom Homes

by Greater Bay Area County, 12 Months Sales*

$2,400,000

$1,830,000

$2,160,000

$1,880,000

$2,091,000

$1,580,000

$1,787,500

$1,325,000

$1,550,000

$1,175,000

$1,360,000

$1,206,000

$1,107,500

$875,000

$971,500

$780,000

$970,000

$852,500

$857,500

$785,000

$680,000

$565,000

Median House Sales Prices

4BR/3BA, 2000 - 2300 Sq.Ft. House

3BR/2BA, 1400 - 1750 Sq.Ft. House

Median price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that typically disguises an enormous range of sales prices in the individual underlying sales. Counties contain submarkets of widely different values. How these prices apply to any particular home is unknown without a comparative market analysis.

Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance in the 12 months through 2/28/26. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all sales are reported to MLS. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.

Median House Dollar per Square Foot Values

by Greater Bay Area County, 12 Months Sales*

$1,209

$1,009

$1,155

$1,132

$981

$951

$865

$810

$758

$730

$743

$644

$558

$528

Median House $/Sq.Ft. Values

4BR/3BA, 2000 - 2300 Sq.Ft. House Napa

$556

$446

$509

$404

$501 $451

$362

3BR/2BA, 1400 - 1750 Sq.Ft. House

$/sq.ft. is based upon interior living space and doesn’t include garages, attics, basements, rooms built without permit, decks or lot size. All things being equal, a smaller home will typically sell for a higher $/sq.ft. value.

Counties contain submarkets of widely different values. How these values apply to any particular home is unknown without a comparative market analysis.

New Listings Coming on Market

San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality*

The number of new listings typically climbs through spring, declines in mid-summer, soars in September, and plunges in December.

The number of new listings in February 2026 ticked up slightly from January but was essentially unchanged year over year. It should rise in coming months.

*August figure estimated using data available in early September. Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, listings posted on site. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. May not include “coming-soon” listings. All numbers approximate.

San Francisco Homes Market

The # of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the # of new listings coming on market, 2) how quickly buyers put them into contract, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling their homes off the market without selling.

As of 3/1/26, the number of listings was climbing, but plunged 29% lower year over year. Listing inventory will typically continue to rise through fall.*

* Houses, condos, co-ops, TICs, townhouses: Active/Coming-Soon listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance. Does not include new-project condosnot listedonMLS. Data fromsourcesdeemedreliablebutmaycontain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. The # of active listings changes constantly.

San Francisco: Supply vs. Demand

MSI measures how long it would take to sell the current inventory of active listings at the 12-month rate of sale. The lower the MSI, the stronger the buyer demand as compared to the supply of listings on the market.

As buyers jump back into the market in the new year faster than sellers list their homes, March is typically one of the months in which the supply of listings is lowest as compared to demand. These extremely low listing counts and MSI readings signify exceptionally heated and competitive markets across the board but especially for houses.

Demand, as measured by the number of listings going into contract, typically climbs through spring, declines in summer, rebounds in early fall, and plunges in December.

Sales activity in SF rebounded dramatically in February 2026 as the new year’s market gained steam. Even though the number of listings was lower year over year, the number of homes going into contract rose.

Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers

SanFrancisco: AbsorptionRatebyMonth

Absorption rate measures buyer demand vs. the supply of listings for sale: The higher the percentage, the more heated and competitive the market. The SF market shifted dramatically in fall 2025. With inventory declining and demand increasing, the absorption rate in February 2026 was about 60% higher than in February 2025.

*SFARMLS reported data, per Broker Metrics. Not

Overbidding List Prices in San Francisco

Percentage of Home Sales Closing over List Price

More overbidding

This statistic fluctuates according to seasonal demand trends and is a lagging indicator of market activity 3-6 weeks earlier.

Overbidding is generally caused by buyer competition for new listings. The overall overbidding percentage in February 2026 was 64% of sales, the highest % since mid-2022. For houses alone, it was 77% of sales, and for condos, 54%.

2023

May Oct. Updated through February 2026 Nov.

Average Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage

San Francisco Over/Under Bidding: Market

Dynamics

&

Seasonality

Thisstatisticcanbedistortedbystrategic

underpricing strategies by listing agents.

100% = an average sales price at original list price.

The average Sales Price to Original List Price

Percentage in February 2026 was 10% above list price, the highest reading since spring 2022. For houses alone the average was 16.5% above list price, and for condos, 4.5% over list price.

Average Days on Market – Speed of Sale

San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality

Measuring how long it takes for sold listings to accept offers. Homes usually sell fastest in spring and early autumn – with the rush of new listings – and slowest in mid-winter (when the inventory of listings is at its oldest).

This chart illustrates average days on market for all residential sales, but houses have been selling much, much faster than other property types. January sales mostly reflect market conditions in December, the slowest month of the year.

Price Reductions on Active Listings

San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality

The number of price reductions typically ebbs and flows by season but can also be affected by specific events in the economy and the market. They typically peak in October before the mid-winter holidays, though that did not occur in 2025 due to the tariff shock in spring and the heated fall market.

The number of price reductions in February 2026 declined 59% year over year.

Monthly Home Sales Volume*

San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality

Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month. Sales rebounded from the January low, but are being constrained by the exceedingly low inventory of listings for sale.

House sales made up approximately 44% of February 2026 sales; condos made up 46%; coops, 1.5%; TICs, 7%; and townhouses, 1%.

*Sales of houses, condos, townhouses reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Does not include new-project condo sales unreported to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last month estimated based on available information and may change with late reported sales. All numbers approximate.

Selected Economic & Demographic Data

San Francisco Population

Breakdown Estimates by Race/Ancestry

Native American, Native

Of residents of Asian heritage, by far the largest group is Chinese.

The Bay Area has one of the most diverse populations in the world.

Approximately 34% of the population was foreign-born.

U.S. Census 7/1/24 estimates. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Estimates published with significant margins of error and should be considered very approximate. Due to the way Census data is collected & sorted, percentages do not add up to 100%.

Of residents of Hispanic/Latino heritage, the largest group is Mexican.

As self-identified by residents: Categories as delineated by U.S. Census.

Mortgage Interest Rates, August 2022 to 2026 YTD

30-Year Conforming Fixed-Rate Loans, Weekly Average Readings*

Rates vary widely according to the property, price, borrower and lender.

Per Freddie Mac (FHLMC), on March 5, 2026, the weeklyaverage, 30-year,conforming-loaninterest rate, illustrated on this chart, was 6%, essentially unchanged from the previous week. (However, as of 3/6/26, the daily average rate has risen to 6.14%, increasing 15 basis points since the Iran war began.)*

3/30/23

*Freddie Mac (FHLMC), 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Weekly Average: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.

Crude Oil, Price per Barrel

Since February 2, 2026*

Dramatic ups and downs in oil prices, if sustained, can have considerable effects on consumer prices, transportation costs, inflation, consumer confidence and financial markets.

*Per Yahoo! Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF/history/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers should be considered approximate.

Updated through March 6, 2026

Iran war begins

Financial Markets, 2025 – 2026

YTD

Percentage Increases in S&P 500 & Nasdaq since 1/2/25

Nasdaq Index: % Change since 01/25

S&P 500 Index: % Change since 01/25

Large changes in stock markets can dramatically affect household wealth, consumer confidence and housing markets, especially more affluent markets.

Data per MarketWatch.com, https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/comp/downloaddata and https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/download-data. Data from source deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Financial market values change constantly and all numbers to be considered approximate.

VIX Volatility Index*

By Day in 2025

“The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, is a real-time market index representing the [stock] market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days. Investors use the VIX to measure the level of risk, fear, or stress in the market when making investment decisions.” Quote from Investopedia

► On 3/6/26, the VIX Volatility Index hit its highest point since the tariff shock in April 2025.

Mar-25

*CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), per https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/vix_historical_data/ and/or Yahoo! Finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/history/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers approximate.

The CAPE ratio is a stock market valuation measure created by economist Robert Shiller. It is defined as the current price of the S&P 500 divided by the moving-average of 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings and is principally used to assess likely future returns over longer periods. A higher CAPE ratio can suggest investors are expecting higher future growth, or that the stock market is overvalued.

As of early 2026, the CAPE ratio has been running at its highest readings since the dotcom bubble.

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index*

By Month since January 2000

The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reading has plummeted since the April 2025 tariff shock butreboundedhigher in JanuaryandFebruary2026 toa level very high by long-term standards. This chart pre-dates the start of the Iran war.

Tariff shock►

The Economic Uncertainty Index is constructed from data analysis of 1) an index of search results from 10 large newspapers for terms related to economic and policy uncertainty, 2) reports by the Congressional Budget Office, and 3) the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters.*

*Source: 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty' by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, 3component index, www.PolicyUncertainty.com, https://www.policyuncertainty.com/us_monthly.html.

U.S. Jobs Report*

MonthlyChangeinNumber of Jobs, in Thousands*

Note: BLS often revises its monthly estimates, sometimes very substantially.

*U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “All employees, thousands, total nonfarm, seasonally adjusted”: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output view=net 1mth. Last 2 readings are labeled “preliminary” and often substantially revised. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. Monthly Change in U.S. NonFarm Employment, in Thousands Employment trends and job security continue to be major concerns of consumers and economists.

Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities,

views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.

Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.

Photo use under the Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.