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San Francisco Market Report- April 2026

Page 1


Shrugging Off War, the SF Market Only Gets More Heated

The median HOUSE sales price in March 2026 hit $2,150,000, up 18% year-over-year, exceeding the previous peak of $2,050,000 in April 2022. The median CONDO sales price was $1,357,500, up 27% year-over-year, marking the second-highest monthly price ever after the $1,375,000 peak in April 2022.

22 luxury HOUSE sales of $5 million+ were reported in March 2026, up 83% year-overyear, surpassing the previous peak of 21 sales in June 2021. 24 luxury CONDO sales of $3 million+ were reported in March, up 380% year-over-year, exceeding the previous high of 17 sales in August 2021.

The number of homes listed for sale fell 28% year over year. The inadequate supply of listings – especially of houses – compared to soaring demand continues to pressurize the market as buyers compete furiously for scarce listings.

85% of house sales sold over list price with an average sale price 23% over list price, tied with April 2022 for highest overbid percentage ever. 62% of condo sales sold over list price with an average sale price 7% over list price, the highest overbid % since 2019.

The average days on market to acceptance of offer was 29 days in March 2026, the fastest rate of sale since spring 2022. Price reductions fell 39% from March 2025.

Report created in good faith using data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last period figures are preliminary estimates based on data available early in the following month. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported activity.

San Francisco HOUSE Prices

Median HOUSE Sales Prices – Selected Neighborhoods*

Presidio Heights

Pacific Heights

Cow Hollow

Sea Cliff

Russian Hill Marina

Lake Street/Jordan Park

Cole Vly-Ashbury Hghts.

Lower Pacific Heights

St. Francis Wood

Eureka Valley

Noe Valley

West Portal

Inner Richmond

Lone Mountain

Mt. Davidson Mnr.

Diamond Heights

Ingleside Terrace

Corona Heights Forest Hill

Inner Parkside

Inner Sunset

Golden Gate Heights

Glen Park

Central Richmond

$8,091,000

$6,997,500

$6,450,000

$4,644,000

$4,100,000

$3,900,000

$3,675,000

$3,500,000

$3,500,000

$3,492,500

$2,971,500

$2,750,000

$2,740,000

$2,650,000

$2,346,000

$2,317,500

$2,300,000

$2,275,000

$2,246,000

$2,138,000

$2,050,000

$2,027,500

$2,000,000

$2,000,000

$1,959,000

High Sale: $19,000,000

12 Months Sales*

House Market Dynamics

High Sale: $42,000,000 (off-MLS); $26,500,000 (MLS)

High Sale: $16,800,000

High Sale: $9,600,000

High Sale: $7,500,000

High Sale: $6,000,000

High Sale: $7,900,000 High Sale: $9,500,000 High Sale: $9,350,000 High Sale: $4,995,000

High Sale: $8,160,000

High Sale: $9,600,000

High Sale: $5,500,000

This is a sampling of values across some of San Francisco’s 70+ neighborhoods, w/high sales prices of $4.995 million+*

Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general measurement of value that disguises a wide range of prices in the underlying sales, and how it applies to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

Many factors affect home values: architectural style, quality of construction, square footage, condition, amenities, light, views, privacy, outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on.

High Sale: $12,489,000

San Francisco HOUSE Prices

Median HOUSE Sales Prices – Selected Neighborhoods*

Outer Richmond

Potrero Hill

Lake Shore

Midtown Terrace

Miraloma Park

Inner Mission

Westwood Park

Parkside (Central)

Bernal Heights

Central Sunset

Outer Sunset

Outer Parkside

Merced Heights Sunnyside

Mission Terrace

Oceanview

Ingleside Heights

Ingleside

Portola

Outer Mission

Excelsior

Crocker Amazon

Visitacion Valley

Silver Terrace

Bayview

$1,895,000

$1,880,000

$1,851,000

$1,850,000

$1,850,000

$1,800,000

$1,725,000

$1,675,000

$1,670,000

$1,642,000

$1,550,000

$1,488,000

$1,485,000

$1,300,000

$1,287,500

$1,247,500

$1,230,000

$1,207,000

$1,200,000

$1,155,000

$1,110,000

$1,075,000

$975,000

$940,000

$915,000

12 Months Sales*

House Market Dynamics

This is a sampling of values across some of San Francisco’s 70+ neighborhoods, w/high sales prices of $4.995 million+*

High Sale: $4,995,000

Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less.

How these prices apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

San Francisco HOUSE Values

Median HOUSE $/Sq.Ft. Values – Selected Neighborhoods*

Presidio Heights

Eureka Valley Cow Hollow Pacific Heights

Noe Valley Sea Cliff Marina

Cole Vly-Ashbury Heights

Lake Street/Jordan Park

St. Francis Wood

Clarendon Heights

Inner Sunset

Outer Sunset

Bernal Heights

Potrero Hill

Inner Richmond

Midtown Terrace

West Portal

Miraloma Park

Excelsior Lake Shore Forest Hill

Visitacion Valley

Bayview

Median $/sq.ft. value is a very general measurement, and how it applies to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis. All things being equal, a smaller home will typically sell for a higher $/sq.ft. value –and median house sizes vary enormously between and within neighborhoods.

The calculation of dollar per square foot is based on interior living space and doesn’t include garages, attics, basements, rooms built without permit, decks, patios or lot size (though all these can add value to the home).

12 Months House Sales*

This is a sampling of values across some of San Francisco’s 70+ neighborhoods. /sq.ft.

San Francisco Median HOUSE Sizes

Median HOUSE Square Footage – Selected Neighborhoods*

Presidio Heights

Cow Hollow Pacific Heights

Lake Street/Jordan Park

Sea Cliff

St. Francis Wood

Inner Richmond Marina

Cole Vly-Ashbury Heights

Forest Hill

Noe & Eureka Valleys

Central Richmond

Potrero Hill

Miraloma Park

Lake Shore

Central Sunset

Ingleside

Visitacion

Comparing median sales prices between neighborhoods is not apples to apples, since the median sizes of homes (and other characteristics) vary so widely. Generally speaking, the most expensive neighborhoods have both the largest homes and the highest dollar per square foot values.

The median house size for the entire city is 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, 1806 sq.ft. with a median lot size is .06 acre.

Square footage is based upon interior living space and doesn’t include garages, attics, basements, rooms built without permit, decks, patios or lot size.

San Francisco CONDO Prices

Median CONDO Sales Prices – Selected Neighborhoods*

Presidio Heights

Cow Hollow Lake St./Jordan Park

Pacific Heights

Eureka Valley Marina

Noe Valley

Inner/Central Richmond

Russian Hill

Cole Vly-Ashbury Heights

Duboce Triangle NoPa

Inner Sunset

Mission Dolores

Alamo Square

Nob Hill

South Beach

Mission Bay Hayes Valley

Potrero Hill Dogpatch

Inner Mission

SoMa

Van Ness/Civic Center

Hunter's Point

$2,562,500

$1,780,000

$1,762,500

$1,750,000

$1,562,000

$1,533,000

$1,490,000

$1,435,000

$1,412,000

$1,405,000

$1,373,000

$1,350,000

$1,342,500

$1,338,000

$1,310,000

$1,250,000

$1,186,000

$1,181,500

$1,176,500

$1,170,000

$1,100,000

$915,000

$748,000

$722,000

$600,000

12 Months Sales*

Condo Market Dynamics

Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. Many factors affect condo prices: square footage, architectural style, views, quality of construction, the floor the unit is on, condition, HOA amenities and cost, deeded outdoor space, parking, and so on.

This is a sampling of values across some of San Francisco’s 70+ neighborhoods.*

San Francisco CONDO Values

Median CONDO $/Sq.Ft. Values – Selected Neighborhoods*

Cow Hollow Marina

Presidio Heights

Pacific Heights

Russian Hill

Eureka Valley

Cole Vly-Ashbury Heights

Noe Valley

Lake St./Jordan Park

Hayes Valley

NoPa

South Beach

Nob Hill

Inner Sunset

Mission Bay Dogpatch

Alamo Square

Potrero Hill

Inner/Central Richmond

Yerba Buena

Inner Mission

Van Ness/Civic Center

SoMa

Hunter's Point

12 Months Sales* /sq.ft.

Condo Market Dynamics

The calculation of dollar per square foot is based on interior living space and doesn’t include common areas, parking spaces, rooms built without permit, storage rooms, decks or patios. All things being equal, a smaller unit will typically sell for a higher dollar per square foot value, but the floor a unit is on – and its views – can play a large role in condo values.

This is a sampling of values across some of San Francisco’s 70+ neighborhoods.

San Francisco House Price Trends

Median House Sales Prices since 2012, by QUARTER

Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less and can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. It is a very general statistic that disguises a wide range of prices in the underlying sales.

Seasonal fluctuations are common, and it’s not unusual for median sales prices to peak for the year in Q2, though that did not occur in 2025 due to the AI startup boom.

The Q1 2026 median house sales price jumped 22% year over year to its highest Q1 price ever, and just below its peak quarterly price in Q2 2022. Q2 2022

Appreciation is typically measured year over year to account for market seasonality.

$666,000$770,000$750,000$829,400$809,000$975,000$900,000$935,000$968,000$1,100,000$1,036,500$1,121,000$1,112,500$1,325,000$1,225,000$1,245,000$1,308,500$1,350,000$1,280,000$1,350,000$1,300,000$1,440,000$1,362,500$1,500,000$1,610,000$1,620,000$1,550,000$1,500,000$1,500,000$1,640,000$1,550,000$1,505,000$1,550,000$1,660,000$1,625,000$1,600,000$1,650,000$1,880,000$1,807,500$1,820,000$1,859,000$2,000,000$1,650,000$1,564,000$1,525,000$1,600,000$1,545,000$1,550,000$1,650,000$1,700,000$1,574,000$1,600,000$1,622,500$1,750,000$1,625,000$1,786,000$1,975,500 $400,000 $600,000 $800,000 $1,000,000 $1,200,000 $1,400,000 $1,600,000 $1,800,000 $2,000,000

Median HOUSE Sales Price since 2020

San Francisco Market Dynamics by MONTH*

Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month. Median house sales prices typically peak for the calendar year in spring.

April 2022

In March 2026, the monthly median house sales price, $2,150,000, hit a new high, exceeding the previous peak in April 2022 ($2,050,000).

Updated through March 2026

$1,000,000 $1,200,000 $1,400,000 $1,600,000 $1,800,000 $2,000,000

San Francisco Condo Price Appreciation

Median Condo Sales Prices since 2012, by QUARTER

Seasonal fluctuations are common. It is not unusual for median sales prices to peak for the calendar year in Q2. Different city districts have seen varying median price trends. Pandemic hits

The Q1 2026 median condo sales jumped 18% year over year to its highest 1st quarter price ever. Q2

$646,000$724,000$750,000$775,000$805,000$850,000$840,000$830,000$950,000$949,500$950,000$995,000$1,079,500$1,125,000$1,047,500$1,105,000$1,099,000$1,130,000$1,055,000$1,075,000$1,138,000$1,120,000$1,175,000$1,178,000$1,120,000$1,206,000$1,150,000$1,200,000$1,168,168$1,235,000$1,235,500$1,217,500$1,219,000$1,151,000$1,225,500$1,150,000$1,177,500$1,247,500$1,208,000$1,279,000$1,210,000$1,300,000$1,147,500$1,115,000$1,113,000$1,150,000$1,100,000$1,080,000$1,155,000$1,115,000$1,150,000$1,125,000

As reported to NORCAL MLS® ALLIANCE, per Infosparks. All numbers are approximate and subject to revision. Last quarter may change with late reported activity. Does not include new-project condo sales unreported to MLS.

$500,000 $600,000 $700,000 $800,000 $900,000 $1,000,000 $1,100,000 $1,200,000 $1,300,000

Median CONDO Sales Price since 2020

San Francisco Market Dynamics by MONTH*

Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month.

April 2022

In March 2026, the monthly median condo sales price, $1,357,500, hit its second highest point ever. The peak price occurred in April 2022 ($1,375,000).

March 2026

Updated through March 2026

$800,000 $900,000 $1,000,000 $1,100,000 $1,200,000 $1,300,000

3-Month-Rolling, Median Dollar per Square Foot Values*

Median $/sq.ft. value is a general statistic, disguising an enormous range of values in the underlying sales. It is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, which explain many of the regular ups and downs in this chart.

2005-2006-2007-2008

The 3-month-rolling median $/sq.ft. house value in March 2026 rose about 12% year over year; the median condo value rose about 10.5%.

and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.

through March 2026

San Francisco Residential Market

2026 YTD Home Sales by Price Segment*

$4,000,000 - $4,999,999 $5,000,000+

$3,000,000 - $3,999,999

82% of sales under $1,000,000 were condos, co-ops and TICs.

Sales by Property Type*

• House 42%

• Condo 47%

• TIC 7%

• Co-op 2%

57% of sales of $1m - $1,499,999 were condos, co-ops and TICs.

• Townhouse 1% *Sales and listings pending sale reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by 3/31/26. Not all sales are reported to MLS, including many new-project condo sales. Listings pending sale may not close, and pending-sale list prices may not reflect final closing prices. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. Percentages rounded and may not add up to 100%.

New Listings Coming on Market

San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality*

The number of new listings typically climbs through spring, declines in mid-summer, soars in September, and plunges in December.

The number of new listings in March 2026 rose from February but fell 4% year over year.

San Francisco Homes Market

1,045 1,121 1,252 1,362 1,400 1,310 1,253 1,558 1,536 1,185

The # of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the # of new listings coming on market, 2) how quickly buyers put them into contract, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling their homes off the market without selling.

As of 4/1/26, the number of listings was slowly climbing, but declined 28% lower year over year. Listing inventory will typically continue to rise through fall.*

Updated April 1, 2026

2/1/22 3/1/22 4/1/22 5/1/22 6/1/22 7/1/22 8/1/22 9/1/22 10/1/22 11/1/22 12/1/22 1/1/23 2/1/23 3/1/23 4/1/23 5/1/23 6/1/23 7/1/23 8/1/23 9/1/23 10/1/23 11/1/23 12/1/23 1/1/24 2/1/24 3/1/24 4/1/24 5/1/24 6/1/24 7/1/24 8/1/24 9/1/24 10/1/24 11/1/24 12/1/24 1/1/25 2/1/25 3/1/25 4/1/25 5/1/25 6/1/25 7/1/25 8/1/25 9/1/25 10/1/25 11/1/25 12/1/25 1/1/26 2/1/26 3/1/26 4/1/26

* Houses, condos, co-ops, TICs, townhouses: Active/Coming-Soon listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance. Does not include new-project condos not listed on MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. The # of active listings changes constantly.

Homes for Sale in San Francisco

Listings Accepting Offers (Going into Contract)

San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality

Demand, as measured by the number of listings going into contract, typically climbs through spring, declines in summer, rebounds in early fall, and plunges in December. Sales activity in SF continued to surge in March 2026 as the market moved into spring. Even though the number of listings was much lower year over year, the number of homes going into contract rose about 13.5%.

Updated through March 2026

Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers

San Francisco: Absorption Rate by Month

Absorption rate measures buyer demand vs. the supply of listings for sale: The higher the percentage, the more heated and competitive the market. Absorption rates have surged higher on a year over year basis since autumn 2025.

Spring 2022

Spring 2023

2024

2025

2025

*SFARMLS reported data, per Broker Metrics. Not all new-condo project activity is reported to MLS. Last month’s data estimated using available data and may change with late reported activity. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.

Updated through March 2026

Overbidding List Prices in San Francisco

Percentage of Home Sales Closing over List Price

This statistic fluctuates according to seasonal demand trends and is a lagging indicator of market activity 3-6 weeks earlier.

Overbidding is generally caused by buyer competition for new listings. The overall overbidding percentage in March 2026 was 71% of sales, the highest % since spring 2022. For houses alone, it was 85% of sales, and for condos, 62%.

Sales data reported to NORCAL MLS® ALLIANCE, per Infosparks. Reflecting the percentage of sales closing at sales prices over the final list prices. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate and may change with late-reported sales.

Average Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage

San Francisco Over/Under Bidding: Market Dynamics & Seasonality

This statistic can be distorted by strategic underpricing strategies by listing agents.

Pandemic Year 1

Spring-Autumn 2021

April 2022

The average Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage in March 2026 was 13.5% above list price, the highest reading in 10 years. For houses alone the average was 23% over list price, and for condos, 7% over list price.

100% = an average sales price at original list price.

Spring-Autumn 2023

Spring 2024

Spring 2025 Fall 2025

Updated through March 2026

Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Data derived from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.

Average Days on Market – Speed of Sale

San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality

Measuring how long it takes for sold listings to accept offers. Homes usually sell fastest in spring and early autumn – with the rush of new listings – and slowest in mid-winter (when the inventory of listings is at its oldest).

Jan. 2021

Jan. 2023

Jan. 2022

Spring 2023

Jan. 2024

Average days on market in March 2026 – 29 days – hit the lowest reading since spring 2022. For houses alone, the reading was 20 days, and for condos, 34 days. Updated through March 2026 Spring 2024

Jan. 2026

Monthly Home Sales Volume*

San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality

Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month. Sales continued to rebound from the January low, but are being constrained by the exceedingly low inventory of listings for sale.

*Sales of houses, condos, townhouses reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Does not include new-project condo sales unreported to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last month estimated based on available information and may change with late reported sales. All numbers approximate.

through March 2026

San Francisco Luxury Home Sales

Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month. The market for luxury homes fluctuates by season, with spring and fall typically the most active markets of the year.

$5 million+ home sales in March 2026 tied the highest monthly counts ever.

| Peak of pandemic boom |

House, condo, co-op, TIC and townhouse sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Not all luxury home sales are reported to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable, but subject to error and revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.

through March 2026

San Francisco Luxury HOUSE Sales

Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month. The market for luxury homes fluctuates by season, with spring and fall typically the most active markets of the year.

Peak of pandemic boom

$5 million+ house sales in March 2026 hit the highest monthly count ever, slightly exceeding the previous peak in June 2021. June 2021 Updated through March 2026

San

Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month.

$3 million+ condo sales in March 2026 hit the highest monthly count ever, far exceeding the previous peak in August 21. Aug. 2021

Peak of pandemic boom

Price Reductions on Active Listings

San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality

Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/,

The number of price reductions typically ebbs and flows by season but can also be affected by specific events in the economy and the market. They typically peak in October before the mid-winter holidays.

The number of price reductions in March 2026 declined 39% year over year.

Selected Economic & Demographic Data

San Francisco Population Trends since 2010

U.S. Census Estimates, July 1st to July 1st 805,519 815,694 828,963 839,695 850,918 863,237

Pandemic hits ▲

Changes measured from July 1st of previous year to July 1st of labeled year.

Data pertaining to changes in rent rates, rental vacancy rates, and median household income indicates that the greatest loss of residents 2020-2021 was of tenants.

2024 to 2025, the county saw slightly negative domestic migration (-137), positive foreign migration (+4667), and more births than deaths (+574). Net foreign immigration in San Francisco plunged 64% in the last 12month period and is expected to decline further in the period underway. Since the pandemic struck: -83,697 in net domestic migration, +33,435 in net foreign migration, and +3776 in natural change.

816,169813,266816,926 820,945 826,079 750,000 775,000 800,000 825,000 850,000 875,000

Estimates as of July 1 of each year. 2020-2025 data published March 26, 2026, by U.S. Census. The Census often revises numbers in subsequent estimates. All numbers to be considered approximate. Census numbers may not total perfectly due to “Population change that cannot be attributed to any specific demographic component.”

Mortgage Interest Rates, August 2022 to 2026 YTD

30-Year Conforming Fixed-Rate Loans, Weekly Average Readings*

Rates vary widely according to the property, price, borrower and lender.

Per Freddie Mac (FHLMC), on April 2, 2026, the weekly average, 30-year, conforming-loan interest rate rose to 6.46%, up from 5.98% before the Iran war began. The cease fire announced on 4/7/26 may exert downward pressure on interest rates.* Jan. 2026

war begins↑

*Freddie Mac (FHLMC), 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Weekly Average: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.

Financial Markets,

2025 – 2026 YTD

Percentage Increases in S&P 500 & Nasdaq since 1/2/25

Nasdaq Index: % Change since 01/25

S&P 500 Index: % Change since 01/25

Updated mid-day 4/8/26

Iran war begins ↑

Cease fire announced ↑

Tariff shock ►

Large changes in stock markets can dramatically affect household wealth, consumer confidence and housing markets, especially more affluent markets.

Data per MarketWatch.com, https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/comp/downloaddata and https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/download-data. Data from source deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Financial market values change constantly and all numbers to be considered approximate.

Crude Oil, Price per Barrel

Since February 2, 2026*

Dramatic ups and downs in oil prices can have considerable effects on manufacturer & consumer prices, transportation costs, inflation, consumer confidence and financial markets. Prices have often been volatile even on an intra-day basis as events, predictions, threats and announcements change.

| Iran war begins

Updated mid-day April 8, 2026

Cease fire announced |

*Per Yahoo! Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF/history/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers should be considered approximate.

Any impact of the Iran war ceasefire has not yet shown up in gas prices.

Updated mid-day 4/8/26

* U.S. Energy Information Administration, US Regular All Formulations Gas Price: Weighted average based on sampling of approximately 900 retail outlets. Not seasonally adjusted. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW and daily updates per https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors.

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index*

By Month since January 2000

The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reading has plummeted since the April 2025 tariff shock but rebounded higher in 2026 to a level very high by longterm standards. Still, the increase since the Iran war began has been muted.

The Economic Uncertainty Index is constructed from data analysis of 1) an index of search results from 10 large newspapers for terms related to economic and policy uncertainty, 2) reports by the Congressional Budget Office, and 3) the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters.*

Dotcom crash & 9/11

Tariff shock ►

Subprime crash & great recession

*Source: 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty' by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, 3component index, www.PolicyUncertainty.com, https://www.policyuncertainty.com/us_monthly.html.

Federal Funds Interest Rate since 1981

& Economic Interventions by Federal Reserve Bank*

Updated March 18, 2026

◄ Early 1980’s: Fed aggressively raises fed funds target rate to lower inflation rate

In September 2024, the Fed reduced the rate by a half point, and then by a quarter point in November and December. In September, October and December 2025, the rate was reduced by a quarter point each time. There were no changes in January or February 2026. Additional adjustments in 2026 are a topic of much discussion and uncertainty. Early 1990’s recession: Fed drops target interest rate 18 times, 1990-92

Dotcom crash, 9/11 attack: Fed drops fed fund rate 12 times, 2001-02

Junk bond boom

Dotcom boom

2022/2023: Acting to counter inflation, Fed increases target rate 11 times, then pauses 8/2023 – 8/2024

Subprime crash: Fed drops rate 10 times to effectively zero in 2007-08

2019, 2020, 2021: With the pandemic, the Fed drops the rate to effectively zero

High-tech & pandemic booms

Subprime boom

* Per Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and New York; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS; Last reading per https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr. Other data referenced from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.

Chart from “Status of the San Francisco Economy” issued by the SF Offices of the Controller and Economic Analysis. Data per SF Planning Department.

Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.

Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.

Photo use under the Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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