of Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley and Menlo Park.
2025 was a year of substantial political and economic volatility, which negatively affected manyBay Area markets. But the Stanford Circle region – by farthe most affluent and expensive housing market in the region – remained one of the strongest in the country. Its median home values hit new highs, the number of homes sold rose 6%, $5 million+ sales increased 21%, and $10 million+ sales, 29%. Overbidding and speed-of-sale statistics were essentially unchanged from 2024.
Generally speaking, more expensive markets around the country, powered by rising demand from affluent buyers seeing substantial increases in household wealth from stock market gains, performed better than more affordable markets, which tended to be more impacted by concerns regarding inflation, affordability and employment. The Stanford Circle market epitomized this trend, being supercharged in recent years by the AI boom and the staggering amounts of new wealth it has generated.
As 2026 begins, interest rates are near multi-year lows and stock markets are at or close to all-time peaks. Early in the new year, it is common for buyers, re-energized to move forward with major life decisions, to jump back into the market faster than sellers list their homes for sale. This disparity of increasing demand versus a low supply of new listings usually runs through the spring, typically making these months the most heated of the year.
This report includes an image link to our comprehensive review of regional city and town home values and market dynamics.
Report created in good faith using data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last period figures are preliminary estimates based on data available early in the following month. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported activity.
Mortgage
Interest Rates in 2025 – 2026 YTD
30-YearConformingFixed-RateLoans,WeeklyAverageReadings* price, borrower and lender.
Per Freddie Mac (FHLMC), on January 8, 2026, the weekly average, 30-year, conforming-loaninterest rate was 6.16%, very close to its 2-year low.
*Freddie Mac (FHLMC), 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Weekly Average: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. Data from sources deemed reliable. Different sources of mortgage data sometimes vary in their determinations of daily and weekly rates. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers approximate.
Financial
Markets, 2025 – 2026 YTD
Percentage Increases in S&P 500 & Nasdaq since 1/2/25
Nasdaq Index: % Change since 01/25
S&P 500 Index: % Change since 01/25
Large changes in stock markets can dramatically affect household wealth, consumer confidence and housing markets, especially more affluent markets.
Tariff shock
►
Economic Policy Uncertainty Index*
By Month since January 2000
The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reading in November 2025 ticked up slightly. It has plummeted since April’s tariff shock but remains elevated by long-term norms.
The Economic Uncertainty Index is constructed from data analysis of 1) an index of search results from 10 large newspapers for terms related to economic and policy uncertainty, 2) reports by the Congressional Budget Office, and 3) the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters.*
*Source: 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty' by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, 3component index, www.PolicyUncertainty.com, https://www.policyuncertainty.com/us_monthly.html. Data from sources deemed reliable, but numbers to be considered approximate and subject to revision.
The median house sales price in 2025 was up 3.8% from 2024 to hit a new all-time high. The median house $/sq.ft. value (not illustrated here), at $1815/sq.ft., rose 3.7%.
Median prices are generalities, most useful to discern broad market trends. They can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. The region contains cities, towns and neighborhoods of widely varying values.
* Sales reported to MLS in Palo Altos, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Atherton, Portola Valley, Woodside and Menlo Park, per NorCal MLS Alliance by early January 2026. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain
and is
Stanford Circle: Year-over-Year Appreciation Rates since 1998
Y-o-Y Percentage Change in Annual Median HOUSE Sales Price*
Median sales prices in the region had a huge (outsized) reaction to the dotcom boom & crash.
Annual appreciation rates often varied widely between submarkets within the county. How this chart applies to any particular property is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis. Annual data may disguise significant changes in price appreciation trends within the calendar year.
Pandemic boom
Recovery & high-tech boom
*Pertaining
Stanford Circle Home Values
MedianHouseSalesPrices–12Months Sales*
In very expensive markets with low sales volumes, median sales prices can sometimes fluctuate dramatically without great reference to changes in fair market value.
Median Sales Price Highest Sale Reported to MLS*
Atherton
$8,888,888 High Sale in Period: $45,500,000
Los Altos Hills
$5,487,500
High Sale in Period: $19,500,000
Los Altos
$4,858,000
High Sale in Period: $12,000,000
Portola Valley
$4,215,000
High Sale in Period: $56,000,000
Woodside
$3,850,000
High Sale in Period: $85,000,000
Palo Alto
$3,840,000
Menlo Park
$3,300,000
High Sale in Period: $19,200,000
High Sale in Period: $10,500,000
12 months sales through mid-December 2025
Median house price in the Bay Area is approx. $1,300,000.
Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less. It is a general statistic that typically disguises a very wide range of prices in the underlying sales.
This chart pertains to HOUSE sales only. The mediancondo salespriceintheregionwas $1,400,000 and for townhouses, $2,010,000.
*12 months sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by mid-December 2025. Data derived from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all sales are reported to MLS, and new sales are reported constantly. All numbers approximate. How these prices apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis
Stanford Circle Residential Market
2025 Home Sales by Price Segment*
$10,000,000+
$8,000,000 – $9,999,999
Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley
Stanford Circle Homes Market
The quantity of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the number of new listings coming on market, 2) how quickly buyers put them into contract, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling their homes off market without selling.
Pertaining to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley
As is the normal seasonal trend, the number of listings for sale on January 1st fell to its annual low count. Inventory will start to rapidly increase.*
* Active/Coming-Soon listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all listings are posted to MLS. All numbers approximate. The number of active listings constantly changes.
New Listings Coming on Market by Year
Stanford Circle Market Dynamics*
Home Sales Volume
StanfordCircleMarketDynamics & Seasonality
Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month. The number of home sales in December 2025 was essentially unchanged year over year. January typically sees the lowest sales count of the year due to the holiday slowdown in December and early January.
Pertaining to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley
Stanford Circle: Annual Home Sales Volume
Reflecting the markets of Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley, Menlo Park.
condo, and
Stanford Circle: Annual Sales -
Number of Luxury Home Sales by Year, since 2015*
Reflecting the markets of Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley, Menlo Park.
Sales of higher-price homes are affected by buyer demand, the number of listings available to purchase, and appreciation trends – all of which are impacted by economic and demographic conditions. As appreciation occurs over time, homes that would have sold for under $5 million, then sell for over that price threshold (and vice versa if prices fall).
*All attached and detached residential home sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, with last year’s total estimated based on available data in early January and may change due to late-reported sales. Not all luxury home sales are reported to MLS.
Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley and Menlo Park
Stanford Circle – Overbidding Asking Price
over
Generally speaking, the stronger the demand as compared to the supply of homes for sale, the more buyers compete to win the sale by overbidding asking price. The most expensive homes typically see much less overbidding than more affordable homes.
Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley and Menlo Park
Stanford Circle: Overbidding & Underbidding
100% =anaverage salesprice atoriginal asking price; 105% = an average price 5% above asking; 97% = an average 3% below asking.
Pertaining to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley
Market recovery and high-tech boom
*The ratio of sales price to the original list price: All attached and detached residential home sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance per Infosparks calculations. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Percentages rounded. All numbers approximate and may change due to late-reported sales. Not all sales are reported to MLS.
Bay Area Median House Values by County
2025 Sales By Bedroom/Bath Count*
County/Region
Stanford Circle
Alameda County
Contra Costa
Marin County
Monterey County
Napa County
San Francisco
San Mateo County
Santa Clara County
4 Bedroom, 3 Bath Houses
$4,480,000
$1,626,500
$1,075,000
$1,905,000
$1,092,500
$1,110,000
$2,200,000
$2,622,500
$2,210,000
Santa Cruz County
$1,550,000
Sonoma County
$920,000
$1850/sq.ft.
$739/sq.ft.
$478/sq.ft.
$793/sq.ft.
$471/sq.ft.
$511/sq.ft.
$974/sq.ft.
$1103/sq.ft.
$1023/sq.ft.
$677/sq.ft.
Stanford Circle pertains to Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley, and Menlo Park
$423/sq.ft.
5+ Bedroom, 4+ Bath Houses, 3000+ sq.ft.
$7,645,000
$2,750,000
$2,650,000
$642/sq.ft.
$939/sq.ft.
$719/sq.ft.
$941/sq.ft.
$1232/sq.ft.
$1375/sq.ft.
$1158/sq.ft. $616/sq.ft. $513/sq.ft.
*Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance in 2025 through mid-December 2025. Counties and regions contain submarkets of widely varying values. “Fixer-uppers” excluded. Median values fluctuate for reasons besides changes in fair market value. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and data constantly changes as new sales occur. Not all sales are reported to MLS.
Bay Area Median House Values by County
2025 Sales By Bedroom/Bath Count*
County/Region
Stanford Circle
Alameda County
Contra Costa
Marin County
Monterey County
Napa County
San Francisco
San Mateo County
Santa Clara County
Santa Cruz County
2 Bedroom, 1-2 Bath Houses
Median value is that value at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic.
*Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance in 2025 through mid-December 2025. Counties and regions contain submarkets of widely varying values. “Fixer-uppers” excluded. Median values fluctuate for reasons besides changes in fair market value. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and data constantly changes as new sales occur. Not all sales are reported to MLS.
$784/sq.ft.
$528/sq.ft.
$859/sq.ft.
$573/sq.ft.
$597/sq.ft.
$1005/sq.ft.
$1153/sq.ft.
$1249/sq.ft.
$758/sq.ft.
$532/sq.ft.
Bay Area Median Condo & Townhouse Values
County/Region
2 Bedroom, 2 Bath Condos
Median Sales Price
$1,360,000
$600,000
$549,500
$705,000
$840,000
$967,500
$1,258,000
$865,500
$1058/sq.ft.
$558/sq.ft.
$497/sq.ft.
$661/sq.ft.
$642/sq.ft.
$929/sq.ft.
$1051/sq.ft.
$742/sq.ft.
$694/sq.ft.
3 Bedroom, 2-3 Bath Townhouses
$1232/sq.ft.
$608/sq.ft.
$524/sq.ft.
$561/sq.ft.
$580/sq.ft.
$887/sq.ft.
$841/sq.ft.
$635/sq.ft.
Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities,
views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.
Photo use under the Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
