The real estate market began its usual mid-winter holiday season slowdown in November, marked by a substantial decline in both listing and sales activity. This contraction typically accelerates through December - normally the year's slowest month - before the market begins to wake up in mid-January. Although the inventory of new listings shrinks, December presents the period when motivated buyers can typically negotiate most aggressively, particularly on properties with extended days-on-market. As is virtually always the case, well-priced and prepared, and effectively marketed new listings can still sell quickly, often above the asking price. Our focus now shifts toward the New Year's market. In the past, the beginning of the year frequently ushered in a substantially higher level of demand that continued to build into spring. This occurred in early 2025 until affected by the "tariff shock" and subsequent economic reactions, initiating a significant slowdown in April. This report reviews a wide range of real estate market indicators through November. Our January report will provide an analysis of 2025's conditions and trends in the longer-term context of previous years. In the broader financial landscape, the first week of December saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq largely recover from their substantial declines in November; and the 30-year mortgage rate was close to a 14month low. While consumer confidence showed a modest rise from November, it remains very low by long-term standards. Attention is now focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision regarding an end-of-year benchmark-rate reduction, and the subsequent inflation report due later in the month.
Report created in good faith using data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last period figures are preliminary estimates based on data available early in the following month. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported activity.
Sonoma County Home Sales Breakdown
Sonoma County’s Biggest Sales of the Year*
As reported to MLS
Sonoma County House Price Trends since 1990
Monthly Median House Sales Prices, 3-Month Rolling
Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less, and is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. It is a very general statistic, disguising an enormous range of sales prices in the underlying sales. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, and not particularly meaningful unless substantiated over the longer term.
2005-2006
The 3-month-rolling median sales price about 2% lower year over year. house in November 2025 was
2022 – 2025 crisis to account for market seasonality.
2018
Foreclosure
Appreciation is typically measured year over year Pandemic hits Updated through November 2025
3-month rolling average of monthly median sales prices for “existing” houses, per CA Association of Realtors, or median house sales prices per NorCal MLS Alliance. Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
The 3-month-rolling median house $/sq.ft.valueinNovember 2025was essentially unchanged year over year.
Median $/sq.ft. value is a very general statistic, disguising an enormous range of values in the underlying sales. It is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, which explain many of the regular ups and downs in this chart. Longer-term trends are much more meaningful than short-term changes.
*3-month rolling median house sales values reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
New Listings Coming on Market
Sonoma County Market Dynamics & Seasonality
The number of new listings in November 2025 plummeted from October, a typical seasonal trend. New listing activity typically hits its nadir in December.
The number of new listings coming on market ebbs and flows by seasonal trends, though it can be affected by specific market dynamics.
Last month estimated based on data available early the next month. Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, listings posted on site. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. May not include “coming-soon” listings. All numbers are approximate.
Sonoma County Homes Market
On 12/1/25, the number of listings for sale plunged from a month earlier but was 14% higher year over year. 87% of listings were houses, 9% condos, and 4% townhouses. Listing inventory will typically plummet within the month of December.*
The # of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the # of new listings coming on market, 2) how quickly buyers put them into contract, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling their homes off the market without selling.
* Active/Coming-Soon listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all listings are posted to MLS. All numbers approximate. The number of active listings constantly changes.
Sonoma & Napa Counties: Homes for Sale
Listings over 90 Days on Market by Price Segment*
As of 12/2/25, 66% of active listings have been on the market for over 2 months without selling; 49% for over 3 months; and 25% for over 6 months.*
$2m to $2,999,999
$3m to $4,999,999
$5,000,000+
As
Listing Accepting Offers (Going into Contract)
The # of listings going into contract measures buyer demand, but can be impacted by the supply of new listings available to buy.
The number of listings going into contract in November 2025 continued to decline from the spring peak but rose substantially year over year. Accepted-offer activity usually hits its low count in December.
May
Months
By national norms, the current MSI reading would be considered to indicate a relatively low supply of listings for sale, but with the increase in inventory, it was the highest November reading in 6-7 years. MSI readings are lower in more affordable price segments, and higher for luxury homes.
MSI measures how long it would take to sell the current inventory of active listings at the current rate of sale. The lower the MSI, the stronger the buyer demand as compared to the supply of listings on the market.
3-month rolling average monthly data for residential transactions reported to Bareis MLS, perBroker Metrics.Datafrom sourcesdeemed reliable,butmaycontainerrorsand subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported activity.
Absorption
SonomaCountyMarketDynamics & Seasonality
Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offersinthe previous month. The number of sales in November 2025 dropped from October but was essentially unchanged from November 2024.
Sonoma County Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Luxury home sales usually ebb and flow according to seasonal trends, peaking for the year in late spring or summer.
Year-to-date 2025 $2m+ sales through November increased about 13% from the same period of 2024. (YTD $5m+ sales, not illustrated here, are up 22% from the same period of 2024.)
Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous
January sales generally reflect December’s market slowdown.
Median Days on Market – Speed of Sale
SonomaCounty:MarketDynamics&Seasonalityby Month
A measurement of how quickly the listings which sell go into contract. More affordable homes usually sell much more quickly than luxury homes.
Homes usually sell fastest in spring as buyers respond to the rush of new listings. In November 2025, the median days-on-market reading was 53 days, 13 days more than in November 2024.
Overbidding List Prices in Sonoma County
Sales in 1 month mostly reflect market dynamics in the previous month.
Seasonal ebbs and flows are typical.
More overbidding
Percentage of Home Sales Closing over List Price Sales data reported to NORCAL MLS® ALLIANCE, per Infosparks. Reflecting the percentage of sales closing at sales prices over the final list prices. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
Higher overbidding percentages signify more competition for new listings. 24% of home sales in November 2025 sold for over list price, down from 32% in November 2024.
Average Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage (SP/LP %)
Sonoma County Over/Under Bidding: Market Dynamics & Seasonality
100% = an average sales price at original list price. 104% = an average sales price 4% over asking price; 96% = 4% below asking price.
overbidding normally hits its low point for the year in mid-winter, and its high point in spring. The average home sale in November 2025 sold about 5% under list price. Reflecting supply and demand dynamics,
Per Freddie Mac (FHLMC), on December 4, 2025, the weekly average, 30-year, conforming-loan interest rate was 6.19%, very close to its 14-month low.
The Fed’s next decision regarding another benchmark rate reduction is due 12/10/25.
*Freddie Mac (FHLMC), 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Weekly Average: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. Data from sources deemed reliable. Different sources of mortgage data sometimes vary in their determinations of daily and weekly rates. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers approximate.
Financial
Markets, 2024 – 2025 YTD
Nasdaq Index: % Change since 01/24
S&P 500 Index: % Change since 01/24 Data
VIX Volatility Index*
By Day in 2025
“The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, is a real-time market index representing the [stock] market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days. Investors use the VIX to measure the level of risk, fear, or stress in the market when making investment decisions.” Quote from
Investopedia
*CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), per https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/vix_historical_data/ and/or Yahoo! Finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/history/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers approximate.
S&P 500 Cyclically-Adjusted Price to Earnings (CAPE) Ratio*
The CAPE ratio is a stock market valuation measure created by economist Robert Shiller. It is defined as the current price of the S&P 500 divided by the moving-average of 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings and is principally used to assess likely future returns over longer periods. A higher CAPE ratio can suggest investors are expecting higher future growth, or that the stock market is overvalued.
As of December 1, 2025, the CAPE ratio is at its highest reading since the dotcom bubble.
Data per https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/cryptocurrency/btc/historical. Data from source deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Cryptocurrency values change constantly and all numbers to be considered approximate.
Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities,
views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.
Photo use under the Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
