Shrugging Off War, Buyer Demand Continues to Strengthen Moving Deeper into Spring
Despite significant negative economic effects from the Iran war – rising interest rates; volatile financial markets; soaring oil and gas prices; and fears of increased inflation –Bay Area real estate markets saw relatively little impact in March. What effects that occurred usually landed more heavily on less expensive markets more sensitive to interest rate increases. It is also possible that some sellers may have delayed listing their homes as they waited for more clarity regarding economic conditions. But so far, there has been no reaction comparable to what occurred last year with the tariff shock, and as of April 8th , virtually all economic indicators were turning in positive directions with the cease fire announcement.
Moving into spring, the number of listings going into contract climbed significantly month over month and year over year – but the number of listings on the market fell dramatically from last year. As buyers competed for a reduced supply of homes for sale, the absorption rate and overbidding increased, listings went into contract faster, and price reductions declined from last year. This pressure of demand may lead to increased price appreciation in the second quarter.
As has been the case for the last 2 years, affluent markets remained more heated than less expensive markets, and house markets considerably stronger than condo markets.
Report created in good faith using data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last period figures are preliminary estimates based on data available early in the following month. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported activity.
Oakland-Berkeley, Inner East Bay
Median House Sales Prices, 12 Months Sales*
Piedmont
Claremont Hills
Thousand Oaks
Rockridge
Berkeley Hills
All Berkeley
Central Berkeley
Elmwood
Kensington
Lakeshore/Grand Ave
City of Alameda
Albany
Montclair
Temescal/ Bushrod
El Cerrito
West Berkeley
Glenview/ Oakmore
Point Richmond
Maxwell Park
All Oakland
NoBe
Oak Knoll
All Richmond
Fruitvale
South Oakland
$2,727,500
$2,330,000
$1,850,000
$1,850,000
$1,600,000
$1,600,000
$1,575,000
$1,550,000
$1,507,500
$1,500,000
$1,390,000
$1,320,000
$1,300,000
$1,258,000
$1,209,000
$1,200,000
$1,107,500
$1,034,000
$940,000
$900,000
$832,000
$796,000
$650,000
$554,500
$500,000
High Sale: $13,900,000
High Sale: $8,100,000
High Sale: $5,800,000
High Sale: $7,325,000
High Sale: $8,100,000
High Sale: $4,700,000
High Sale: $4,700,000
High Sale: $5,800,000
Selected City & Neighborhood Markets** With High Sales of $4 Million+*
12 months sales through mid-March 2026*
Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that disguises a wide range of prices in the underlying sales.
This chart illustrates median HOUSE sales prices. The regional median condo sales price was $500,000, and for townhouses, $822,500.
**Neighborhood descriptions stand for zip codes and MLS map areas that often contain different, adjacent neighborhoods. How these values apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Oakland-Berkeley, Inner East Bay
Claremont Hills
City of Alameda Kensington
Temescal/ Bushrod
El Cerrito
Lakeshore/Grand Ave
Glenview/ Oakmore
Median House $/Sq.Ft. Values, 12 Months Sales* $444
Selected City & Neighborhood Markets**
DOLLAR PER SQUARE FOOT ($/sq.ft.) is based upon interior living space and does not include garages, attics, rooms built without permit, storage rooms, patios, decks or lot sizes. All things being equal, a smaller house will typically sell for a higher $/sq.ft. value. per square foot
All
South
This chart illustrates median HOUSE $/sq.ft. values. The median condo $/sq.ft. value in the region was $514, and for townhouses, $536.
**Neighborhood descriptions stand for zip codes and MLS map areas that often contain a number of different, adjacent neighborhoods.
Oakland-Berkeley, Inner East Bay
Median House Size (Square Footage)*
Claremont Hills
Piedmont
Montclair
Lakeshore/Grand Ave
Rockridge
Berkeley
Kensington Thousand
Elmwood
El Cerrito
Selected City & Neighborhood Markets**
Glenview/ Oakmore
Temescal/ Bushrod
Square footage is calculated based on interior living space and does not include garages, attics, rooms built without permit, storage rooms, patios, decks or lot sizes.
This chart illustrates median HOUSE size.
Median condo size in the region was 1004 sq.ft., and for townhouses, 1584 sq.ft.
**Neighborhood descriptions typically stand for zip codes and MLS map areas that often contain a number of different, adjacent neighborhoods.
Inner East Bay Residential Market
2026 YTD Home Sales by Price Segment*
$3,000,000 - $3,999,999
$2,000,000 - $2,999,999
$750,000 –$999,999
Sales
by Property Type*
• House 76%
• Condo 18%
• Townhouse 5%
Oakland, Piedmont, City of Alameda, Berkeley, Emeryville, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito & Richmond
$4,000,000+
34% of sales under $750,000 were condos; 59% were generally small houses in Oakland & Richmond (with a median size of 1144 sq.ft.).
*Sales and listings pending sale reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by 3/31/26. Not all sales are reported to MLS. Listings pending sale may not close, and pending-sale list prices may not reflect final closing prices. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. Percentages rounded and may not add up to 100%.
Median House Sales Price
Inner East Bay Market Dynamics by QUARTER*
Reflecting Oakland, Piedmont, City of Alameda, Berkeley, Emeryville, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito & Richmond. Pandemic hits
Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that typically disguises a wide range of prices in the underlying sales.
It’s not unusual for median sales prices to peak for the calendar year in Q2.
The Q1 2026 median house sales declined about 2.5% year-over-year, but prices in more affluent neighborhoods are generally rising, out-performing less affluent markets.
Median HOUSE Sales Price since 2020
Inner East Bay Market Dynamics by MONTH*
Reflecting Oakland, Piedmont, City of Alameda, Berkeley, Emeryville, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito & Richmond.
April-May 2022
Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month.
Median house sales prices typically peak for the calendar year in spring.
In March 2026, the monthly median house sales price, $1,200,000, was unchanged year over year.
March 2026
Updated through March 2026
$700,000 $800,000 $900,000 $1,000,000 $1,100,000 $1,200,000 $1,300,000 $1,400,000
Average House Dollar per Square Foot Values
Oakland-Berkeley Inner East Bay Region by Quarter
The Q1 2026 median house $/sq.ft. value was slightly higher year-over-year.
Oakland, Piedmont, City of Alameda, Berkeley, Albany, Emeryville, Kensington, El Cerrito & Richmond.
Dollar per Square Foot is calculated on interior living space and doesn’t include garages, attics, basements, rooms built without permit, decks, patios or lot size (though all these can add value).
Median Condo Sales Price by Quarter
Oakland-Berkeley Inner East Bay Region
The median condo sales price in Q1 2026 dropped approximately 6.5% year over year. Generally speaking, Bay Area condo markets have been significantly weaker than house markets.
Reflecting the combined markets of Oakland, Piedmont, city of Alameda, Berkeley, Albany, Emeryville, Kensington, El Cerrito & Richmond.
Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less. Quarterly and seasonal fluctuations are common: The region has seen unusually large quarterly fluctuations in recent years.
$300,000 $325,000 $350,000 $375,000 $400,000 $425,000 $450,000 $475,000 $500,000 $525,000 $550,000 $575,000 $600,000 $625,000 $650,000
New Listings Coming on Market by Month
Oakland-Berkeley Inner East Bay: Market Seasonality
Spring-SummerFall 2021 June 2022
Oakland, Berkeley, Piedmont, City of Alameda, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito, Richmond
The number of new listings in March 2026 continued to rise but fell about 10% year over year.
Sept. 2023
The number of new listings coming on market ebbs and flows by seasonal trends, though it can be affected by specific market dynamics.
Inner East Bay Homes Market
As of 4/1/26, the number of listings was climbing, but 25% lower year over year. Listing inventory will typically continue to rise through fall.*
Pertaining to Oakland, Berkeley, Piedmont, City of Alameda, Albany, Emeryville, Kensington, El Cerrito & Richmond.
The quantity of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the number of new listings coming on market, 2) how quickly buyers put them into contract, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling their homes off market without selling.
Updated on April 1, 2026
* Active/Coming-Soon listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all listings are posted to MLS. All numbers approximate. The number of active listings constantly changes.
Oakland, Piedmont, City of Alameda, Berkeley, Emeryville, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito & Richmond
← 51% of listings under $750,000 were condos; 42% were typically small houses in Oakland & Richmond (median size of 1126 sq.ft.). Inventory in the higher price segments is desperately low.
Listings by Property Type*
Listing Accepting Offers (Going into Contract)
East Bay: Market Dynamics/Seasonality
Oakland, Piedmont, city of Alameda, Berkeley, Emeryville, Albany, Emeryville, Kensington, El Cerrito, Richmond June 2021 Oct. 2021 March 2022
Moving into spring, the number of listings going into contract in March 2026 jumped from February, rising about 11% year over year.
Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers
Inner East Bay Region: Absorption Rate by Month
Oakland, Piedmont, City of Alameda, Berkeley, Emeryville, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito & Richmond
Absorption rate is the comparison of buyer demand vs. the supply of homes for sale: The higher the percentage, the more heated and competitive the market.
As the increase in demand and a decrease in supply has been causing the absorption rate to surge higher.
Historic lows in interest rates | Interest rate changes impact the market
Pandemic hits
*EastBayMLS reported data for houses, condos and townhouses, per Broker Metrics. Last month’s data estimated using available data, may change with late reported activity. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
Months Supply
of Inventory (of Active Listings on Market)
Inner East Bay Real Estate Market since 2018, 3-Month Rolling Average
MSI measures how long it would take to sell the current inventory of active listings at the current rate of sale. The lower the MSI, the stronger the buyer demand as compared to the supply of listings on the market. This statistic fluctuates according to seasonal trends in listing and sales activity.
MSI has been falling since last summer when the market began to rebound from the tariff shock. By long-term national norms, the region’s MSI reading is very low.
| Pandemic boom ►
Pandemic hits Spring 2018 Spring 2019 Spring 2021 –Spring 2022
Reflecting the combined markets of Oakland, Piedmont, City of Alameda, Berkeley, Emeryville, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito & Richmond.
2023
| Interest rates soar
3-month rolling average monthly data for residential transactions reported to EastBayMLS, per Broker Metrics. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported activity.
Average Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage
Inner East Bay Market Over/Under Bidding*
This statistic is affected by the heat of buyer demand, as well as by strategic underpricing by sellers and listing agents. Oakland, Piedmont, City of Alameda, Berkeley, Emeryville, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito, Richmond
April 2022
100% = an average sales price at original list price. 110% = an average sales price 10% over asking price.
In March 2026, the average home sale sold for 15% over list price but houses alone averaged a sales price 19% over list price (with 79% of house sales selling above LP), and condos averaged a sales price 1% over list price (with 52% of condo sales selling above LP).
March 2026
Updated through March 2026
*Large sample of sales of houses, condos, townhouses reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Data derived from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
Average Days on Market – Speed of Sale Inner East Bay: Market Dynamics & Seasonality
A measurement of how quickly the listings which sell go into contract, this statistic typically ebbs and flows per seasonal trends.
Jan. 2023
Jan. 2021 Jan. 2022
Oakland, Piedmont, City of Alameda, Berkeley, Emeryville, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito, Richmond
Homes typically sell fastest in spring as buyers respond to the rush of new listings. In midwinter, sales are dominated by listings that have been on the market for longer periods of time.
Updated through March 2026
Large sample of sales of houses, condos, townhouses reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Data derived from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
Price Reductions on Active Listings
Alameda County Market Dynamics & Seasonality
The number of price reductions typically ebbs and flows by season – peaking in late summer or fall – but can also be affected by specific events in the economy and the market. Year over year, price reductions declined 16% in March 2026. Sept. 2021 July-Aug. 2022
Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/,
Monthly Sales Volume
Inner East Bay Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Reflecting the combined markets of Oakland, Piedmont, city of Alameda, Berkeley, Albany, Emeryville, Kensington, El Cerrito & Richmond June 2021
Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month.
Sales in March 2026 continued their rebound from January’s low.
Peak of pandemic boom
| Interest rate changes impact the market
Sales volume typically ebbs and flows according to seasonal supply & demand trends.
through March 2026
Inner East Bay: Higher Price & Luxury Home Sales
Homes Selling for $2.5 Million+ since January 2021
Reflecting the combined markets of Oakland, Piedmont, City of Alameda, Berkeley, Emeryville, Albany, Kensington, El Cerrito & Richmond
Closed sales mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month. Higher-price sales typically climb through late spring.
Selected Economic & Demographic Data
Alameda County Population Trends since 2010
U.S. Census Estimates, July 1st to July 1st
Population changes are driven by domestic and foreign migration into and out of the county, and by natural causes, i.e., births less deaths.
Pandemic hits ▲
Changes measured from July 1st of previous year to July 1st of labeled year.
1,512,986 1,530,915 1,553,764 1,579,593 1,607,792
2024 to 2025, the county saw negative domestic migration (-15,960), positive foreign migration (+10,373), and more births than deaths (+5593). In California, net foreign immigration plunged approximately 65% in the last 12-month period and is expected to decline further in the period underway.
Alameda County since the pandemic struck: -144,934 in net domestic migration, +70,599 in net foreign migration, and +29,794 in natural change.
1,644,275 1,633,138 1,633,055 1,636,624 1,636,630 1,500,000 1,525,000 1,550,000 1,575,000 1,600,000 1,625,000 1,650,000 1,675,000
Estimates as of July 1 of each year. 2020-2025 data published March 26, 2026, by U.S. Census. The Census often revises numbers in subsequent estimates. All numbers to be considered approximate. Census numbers may not total perfectly due to “Population change that cannot be attributed to any specific demographic component.”
Mortgage Interest Rates, August 2022 to 2026 YTD
30-Year Conforming Fixed-Rate Loans, Weekly Average Readings*
Rates vary widely according to the property, price, borrower and lender.
Per Freddie Mac (FHLMC), on April 2, 2026, the weekly average, 30-year, conforming-loan interest rate rose to 6.46%, up from 5.98% before the Iran war began. The cease fire announced on 4/7/26 may exert downward pressure on interest rates.* Jan. 2026
war begins↑
*Freddie Mac (FHLMC), 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Weekly Average: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
Financial Markets,
2025 – 2026 YTD
Percentage Increases in S&P 500 & Nasdaq since 1/2/25
Nasdaq Index: % Change since 01/25
S&P 500 Index: % Change since 01/25
Tariff shock ►
Updated mid-day 4/8/26
Large changes in stock markets can dramatically affect household wealth, consumer confidence and housing markets, especially more affluent markets. Iran war begins ↑
Cease fire announced ↑
Data per MarketWatch.com, https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/comp/downloaddata and https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/download-data. Data from source deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Financial market values change constantly and all numbers to be considered approximate.
Crude Oil, Price per Barrel
Since February 2, 2026*
Dramatic ups and downs in oil prices can have considerable effects on manufacturer & consumer prices, transportation costs, inflation, consumer confidence and financial markets. Prices have often been volatile even on an intra-day basis as events, predictions, threats and announcements change.
| Iran war begins
Updated mid-day April 8, 2026
Cease fire announced |
*Per Yahoo! Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF/history/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers should be considered approximate.
Any impact of the Iran war ceasefire has not yet shown up in gas prices.
Updated mid-day 4/8/26
* U.S. Energy Information Administration, US Regular All Formulations Gas Price: Weighted average based on sampling of approximately 900 retail outlets. Not seasonally adjusted. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW and daily updates per https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors.
Economic Policy Uncertainty Index*
By Month since January 2000
The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reading has plummeted since the April 2025 tariff shock but rebounded higher in 2026 to a level very high by longterm standards. Still, the increase since the Iran war began has been muted.
The Economic Uncertainty Index is constructed from data analysis of 1) an index of search results from 10 large newspapers for terms related to economic and policy uncertainty, 2) reports by the Congressional Budget Office, and 3) the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters.*
Dotcom crash & 9/11
Tariff shock ►
Subprime crash & great recession
*Source: 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty' by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, 3component index, www.PolicyUncertainty.com, https://www.policyuncertainty.com/us_monthly.html.
Federal Funds Interest Rate since 1981
& Economic Interventions by Federal Reserve Bank*
Updated March 18, 2026
◄ Early 1980’s: Fed aggressively raises fed funds target rate to lower inflation rate
In September 2024, the Fed reduced the rate by a half point, and then by a quarter point in November and December. In September, October and December 2025, the rate was reduced by a quarter point each time. There were no changes in January or February 2026. Additional adjustments in 2026 are a topic of much discussion and uncertainty. Early 1990’s recession: Fed drops target interest rate 18 times, 1990-92
Dotcom crash, 9/11 attack: Fed drops fed fund rate 12 times, 2001-02
Junk bond boom
Dotcom boom
2022/2023: Acting to counter inflation, Fed increases target rate 11 times, then pauses 8/2023 – 8/2024
Subprime crash: Fed drops rate 10 times to effectively zero in 2007-08
2019, 2020, 2021: With the pandemic, the Fed drops the rate to effectively zero
High-tech & pandemic booms
Subprime boom
* Per Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and New York; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS; Last reading per https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr. Other data referenced from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.
Photo use under the Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.