Shrugging
Off War,
Buyer Demand Continues to Strengthen Moving Deeper
into Spring
Despite significant negative economic effects from the Iran war – rising interest rates; volatile financial markets; soaring oil and gas prices; and fears of increased inflation –Bay Area real estate markets saw relatively little impact in March. So far, there has been no reaction comparable to what occurred last year with the tariff shock, and as of April 8th , virtually all economic indicators were turning in positive directions with the cease fire announcement.
Moving into spring, the numbers of new listings, of homes going into contract, and of closed sales climbed significantly month over month and year over year. The absorption rate ticked up and listings went into contract faster. This increased activity may lead to renewed price appreciation in the second quarter.
Report created in good faith using data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last period figures are preliminary estimates based on data available early in the following month. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported activity.
Napa County House Sales
12 Months Sales by City & Town*
*12 months sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by mid-March 2026. Data based upon sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
Yountville, Angwin, Berryessa, Pope Valley
Though its real estate is diverse and complex – with a huge range in home values – Napa County has the smallest county market by number of home sales in the Bay Area, and its sales are dominated by the City of Napa.
This chart reflects HOUSE sales. There were also 87 condo sales and 36 townhouse sales in the period.
City of Napa
Napa & Sonoma Counties, Selected Markets
Median House Sales Prices, 12 Months Sales*
Median Sales Price
St. Helena
Yountville
Glen Ellen Calistoga
Sebastopol
Healdsburg
Sonoma (city)
Petaluma
Napa (city) Angwin
Santa Rosa
American Cyn.
Berryessa
$1,996,000
$1,381,000
$1,320,000
$1,318,500
$1,211,000
$1,150,000
$1,100,000
$955,000
$950,000
$930,000
$755,000
$725,000
$620,000
Highest Sale
High Price Sale in Period: $12,750,000
High Price Sale in Period: $4,300,000
High Price Sale in Period: $11,550,000
High Price Sale in Period: $4,875,000
High Price Sale in Period: $5,000,000
High Price Sale in Period: $15,000,000
High Price Sale in Period: $10,346,000
High Price Sale in Period: $10,000,000
12 months sales through mid-March 2026*
High Price Sale in Period: $11,000,000
High Price Sale in Period: $6,750,000
Rutherford only had 2 sales during the period @ $1,400,000 & $2,450,000.
Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that typically disguises a huge range of prices in the underlying sales. It can be affected by a variety of factors, including location, median home size, lot size, quality of construction, amenities, views, parking and so on.
This chart reflects median HOUSE sales prices. The median Napa County condo sales price was $740,000 during the period, and for townhouses, $667,500.
Napa & Sonoma Counties, Selected Markets
Median House $/Sq.Ft. Value, 12 Months Sales*
Median $/Sq.Ft.
Sebastopol Calistoga Healdsburg St. Helena Yountville
Glen Ellen
Sonoma (city)
$622
Santa Rosa Napa (city)
American Cyn. Angwin
Berryessa
$347
DOLLAR PER SQUARE FOOT ($/sq.ft.) is based upon interior living space and does not include garages, rooms built without permit, storage rooms, patios, decks or lot sizes. All things being equal, a smaller house will sell for a higher $/sq.ft.
Some of these markets have low sales volumes, which make median home prices, values and sizes more subject to anomalous fluctuation from period to period.
Napa County
2026 YTD Home Sales by Price Segment*
$5,000,000+
$3,000,000 - $4,999,999
$2,000,000 - $2,999,999
$1,500,000 - $1,999,999
Sales by Property Type*
• House 87%
• Condo 8%
• Townhouse 4%
$1,000,000 - $1,499,999
$750,000 –$999,999
Napa County has an unusually wide range of home values, from among the more affordable in the Bay Area to among the most expensive.
*Sales and listings pending sale reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by 3/31/26. Not all sales are reported to MLS. Listings pending sale may not close, and pending-sale list prices may not reflect final closing prices. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. Percentages rounded and may not add up to 100%.
Napa County Home Price Appreciation
Median House Sales Prices by Quarter, 2015 - Present
Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that disguises a wide range of prices in the underlying sales.
Because of the relatively low number of sales in Napa, significant fluctuations in median sales price are common. Unlike most Bay Area counties, which typically see peak prices in Q2, in Napa, it’s more often Q3. Longer-term trends are more meaningful than short-term changes.
Year over year, the Q1 2026 median house sales price fell about 4%. Q3 2022 Q3 2023 Q3 2021
Appreciation is typically measured year over year to account for market seasonality. Q3
Pandemic hits
As reported to Bareis MLS, per Broker Metrics or Infosparks. Median sales prices can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer-term trends are more meaningful than short term fluctuations. All numbers approximate and subject to revision. Last period reading may change with late-reported sales.
3-Month Rolling Median Dollar per Square Foot Values*
Median $/sq.ft. value is a very general statistic, disguising an enormous range of values in the underlying sales. It is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, which explain many of the regular ups and downs in this chart. Longer-term trends are much more meaningful than short-term changes.
Note: Median sales prices and median $/sq.ft. values don’t always move in lockstep, since factors such as the median size of homes sold can affect them differently.
The 3-month-rolling median house $/sq.ft. value in March 2026 fell about 2% year over year.
Great recession & foreclosure crisis
*3-month rolling median house sales values reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
Updated through March 2026
New Listings Coming on Market
Napa County Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Napa County Homes Market
Active & Coming-Soon Listings on 1st of Month*
As of 4/1/26, the number of listings jumped from the previous month and about 7% higher year over year. Listing inventory will typically continue to rise through fall.*
The quantity of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the number of new listings coming on market, 2) how quickly buyers put them into contract, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling their homes off the market without selling. Updated April 1, 2026
* Active/Coming-Soon listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all listings are posted to MLS. All numbers approximate. The number of
Homes for Sale in Napa County
Homes priced over $5 million make up 10% of listings, but only 2% of sales.
3% of listings were priced at $10 million+
Listings Accepting Offers (Going into Contract)
Napa County Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Due to its relatively low number of sales, Napa County is more prone to fluctuation in its monthly statistics. Generally speaking, spring-summer is typically its period of highest activity.
Fueled by the surge in new listings, the number of listings going into contract in March 2026 rose 23% year over year.
|
through March 2026
Percentage
of Listings Accepting Offers
Napa County: Absorption Rate by Month
Bareis MLS reported data for houses, condos and townhouses, per Broker Metrics. Last month’s data estimated using available data, may change with late reported activity. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. March 2021 March 2022
Absorption rate is the comparison of buyer demand vs. the supply of homes for sale: The higher the percentage, the more heated and competitive the market. Aug. 2020 March 2025 Oct. 2025
March 2023 | Pandemic hits Pandemic boom | Interest rate changes impact the market
March 2024 Updated through March 2026
Monthly Sales Volume
Napa County Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month. January’s low count generally reflects the slow holiday market in December and early January.
The number of sales in March 2026 continued to rebound from the January low and rose about 21% year over year.
| Interest rate changes impact the market
Updated through March 2026
Higher Price & Luxury Home Sales, $2 Million+
Napa County Market Dynamics & Seasonality
June – Aug. 2021
Aug. 2022
Luxury home sales usually ebb and flow according to seasonal trends, but large monthly fluctuations are not uncommon in Napa.
Sales of houses, condos, townhouses reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last month estimated based on available information and may change with late reported sales. All numbers approximate.
Price Reductions
Overbidding List Prices in Napa County
Percentage of Home Sales Closing over List Price
Higher overbidding percentages signify more competition for new listings, and they typically surge moving into spring. The % is higher for more affordable homes and lower for more expensive properties. Overall, 11% of sales in March 2026 sold over list price.
May 2024
Average Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage
Napa County Over/Under Bidding: Market Dynamics & Seasonality
100% = an average sales price at original list price. 97% = an average sales price 3% below asking price. Overbidding usually peaks in spring. More affordable homes typically sell at higher sales-price-to-listprice percentages than luxury homes.
Pandemic boom
Updated through March 2026 April 2024 Spring 2025
Median Days on Market – Speed of Sale
Napa County: Market Dynamics & Seasonality
A measurement of how quickly the listings which sell go into contract. Generally speaking, more affordable homes sell much more quickly than luxury homes.
Jan. 2023
Jan. 2021
Jan. 2022
Due to the relatively low number of sales in Napa County, anomalous fluctuations in monthly statistics are not uncommon.
Homes typically sell fastest in spring as buyers respond to the rush of new listings. In midwinter, sales are dominated by listings that have been on the market for longer periods of time.
through March 2026
Sales of houses, condos, townhouses reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Data derived from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
Selected Economic & Demographic Data
Napa County Population Trends since 2010
U.S. Census Estimates, July 1st to July 1st
Changes measured from July 1st of previous year to July 1st of labeled year.
Population changes are driven by domestic and foreign migration into and out of the county, and by natural causes, i.e., births less deaths.
Wine Country wildfires |
Pandemic hits ▲
2024 to 2025, the county saw negative domestic migration (-213), positive foreign migration (+46), and slightly fewer births than deaths (-7).
Since the pandemic struck: -6310 in net domestic migration, +1580 in net foreign migration, and -377 in natural change.
Estimates as of July 1 of each year. 2020-2025 data published March 26, 2026, by U.S. Census. The Census often revises numbers in subsequent estimates. All numbers to be considered approximate. Census numbers may not total perfectly due to “Population change that cannot be attributed to any specific demographic component.”
Mortgage Interest Rates, August 2022 to 2026 YTD
30-Year Conforming Fixed-Rate Loans, Weekly Average Readings*
Rates vary widely according to the property, price, borrower and lender.
Per Freddie Mac (FHLMC), on April 2, 2026, the weekly average, 30-year, conforming-loan interest rate rose to 6.46%, up from 5.98% before the Iran war began. The cease fire announced on 4/7/26 may exert downward pressure on interest rates.* Jan. 2026
war begins↑
*Freddie Mac (FHLMC), 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Weekly Average: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
Financial Markets,
2025 – 2026 YTD
Percentage Increases in S&P 500 & Nasdaq since 1/2/25
Nasdaq Index: % Change since 01/25
S&P 500 Index: % Change since 01/25
Tariff shock ►
Updated mid-day 4/8/26
Large changes in stock markets can dramatically affect household wealth, consumer confidence and housing markets, especially more affluent markets. Iran war begins ↑
Cease fire announced ↑
Data per MarketWatch.com, https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/comp/downloaddata and https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/download-data. Data from source deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Financial market values change constantly and all numbers to be considered approximate.
Crude Oil, Price per Barrel
Since February 2, 2026*
Dramatic ups and downs in oil prices can have considerable effects on manufacturer & consumer prices, transportation costs, inflation, consumer confidence and financial markets. Prices have often been volatile even on an intra-day basis as events, predictions, threats and announcements change.
| Iran war begins
Updated mid-day April 8, 2026
Cease fire announced |
*Per Yahoo! Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF/history/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers should be considered approximate.
Any impact of the Iran war ceasefire has not yet shown up in gas prices.
Updated mid-day 4/8/26
* U.S. Energy Information Administration, US Regular All Formulations Gas Price: Weighted average based on sampling of approximately 900 retail outlets. Not seasonally adjusted. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW and daily updates per https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors.
Economic Policy Uncertainty Index*
By Month since January 2000
The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reading has plummeted since the April 2025 tariff shock but rebounded higher in 2026 to a level very high by longterm standards. Still, the increase since the Iran war began has been muted.
The Economic Uncertainty Index is constructed from data analysis of 1) an index of search results from 10 large newspapers for terms related to economic and policy uncertainty, 2) reports by the Congressional Budget Office, and 3) the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters.*
Dotcom crash & 9/11
Tariff shock ►
Subprime crash & great recession
*Source: 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty' by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, 3component index, www.PolicyUncertainty.com, https://www.policyuncertainty.com/us_monthly.html.
Federal Funds Interest Rate since 1981
& Economic Interventions by Federal Reserve Bank*
Updated March 18, 2026
◄ Early 1980’s: Fed aggressively raises fed funds target rate to lower inflation rate
In September 2024, the Fed reduced the rate by a half point, and then by a quarter point in November and December. In September, October and December 2025, the rate was reduced by a quarter point each time. There were no changes in January or February 2026. Additional adjustments in 2026 are a topic of much discussion and uncertainty. Early 1990’s recession: Fed drops target interest rate 18 times, 1990-92
Dotcom crash, 9/11 attack: Fed drops fed fund rate 12 times, 2001-02
Junk bond boom
Dotcom boom
2022/2023: Acting to counter inflation, Fed increases target rate 11 times, then pauses 8/2023 – 8/2024
Subprime crash: Fed drops rate 10 times to effectively zero in 2007-08
2019, 2020, 2021: With the pandemic, the Fed drops the rate to effectively zero
High-tech & pandemic booms
Subprime boom
* Per Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and New York; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS; Last reading per https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr. Other data referenced from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market.
City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.
Photo use under the Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.