March 2026 Report with market data through February
The Market Begins to Wake Up
The number of homes for sale and accepted-offer activity began to rebound in February from the mid-winter lows. Spring and summer are typically the most active selling seasons of the year and on current trends, conditions are expected to begin to generate upward pressure on home values.
The wild card in coming months is what sustained effects, if any, the Iran war
may have on inflation, interest rates, financial markets and consumer confidence. There may be no significant impact on housing, unlike the tariff shock which caused an abrupt slowdown in last year’s spring market.
Report created in good faith using data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last period figures are preliminary estimates based on data available early in the following month. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported activity.
Mortgage Interest Rates, August 2022 to 2026 YTD
30-Year Conforming Fixed-Rate Loans, Weekly Average Readings*
Rates vary widely according to the property, price, borrower and lender.
Per Freddie Mac (FHLMC), on March 5, 2026, the weeklyaverage, 30-year,conforming-loaninterest rate, illustrated on this chart, was 6%, essentially unchanged from the previous week. (However, as of 3/6/26, the daily average rate has risen to 6.14%, increasing 15 basis points since the Iran war began.)*
3/30/23
*Freddie Mac (FHLMC), 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Weekly Average: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
Crude Oil, Price per Barrel
Since February 2, 2026*
Dramatic ups and downs in oil prices, if sustained, can have considerable effects on consumer prices, transportation costs, inflation, consumer confidence and financial markets.
*Per Yahoo! Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF/history/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers should be considered approximate.
Updated through March 6, 2026
Iran war begins
Financial Markets, 2025 – 2026
YTD
Percentage Increases in S&P 500 & Nasdaq since 1/2/25
Nasdaq Index: % Change since 01/25
S&P 500 Index: % Change since 01/25
Large changes in stock markets can dramatically affect household wealth, consumer confidence and housing markets, especially more affluent markets.
Data per MarketWatch.com, https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/comp/downloaddata and https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/download-data. Data from source deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Financial market values change constantly and all numbers to be considered approximate.
The county 3-month-rolling median house sales price in February 2026 was down about 1.5% year over year. Median sales prices often peak in late spring or summer.
Median sales price is that price where half the homessoldformoreand half for less. It is a very general statistic that typically disguises a wide range of prices in the underlying sales. Besides changes in fair market value, median sales prices often rise and fall due to seasonal and short-term factors.
Appreciation is typically measured year over year to account for market seasonality.
3-Month Rolling House Sales, since 2017 $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $1,000,000 $950,000 $900,000 $850,000 $800,000 $750,000 $700,000 $650,000 $600,000
through February 2026
Carmel-Pebble Beach Region: Home Price Trends
3-Month Rolling Median House Sales Price
Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less and is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common. Longer-term trends are much more meaningful than short-term changes.
Due to the relatively small sales volumes and wide range of sales prices, the regional median sales price can fluctuate from period to period.
Reflecting house sales in Carmel, Carmel Valley, Carmel Highlands, Pebble Beach, Monterey and Pacific Grove. $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $2,000,000 $1,800,000 $1,600,000 $1,400,000 $1,000,000 $2,200,000 $1,200,000
Monterey
3-Month Rolling Median Dollar per Square Foot Values*
Median $/sq.ft. value is a very general statistic, disguising an enormous range of values in the underlying sales. It is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, which explain many of the regular ups and downs in this chart. Longer-term trends are much more meaningful than short-term changes.
Carmel-Pebble Beach-City of Monterey-Pacific GroveRegion Monterey County - All
Median House Sales Prices: 3-Bedroom & 4-Bedroom Homes
by Greater Bay Area County, 12 Months Sales*
San Mateo
Santa Clara
San Francisco
Carmel-Pebble
Beach Region
$2,400,000
$1,830,000
$2,160,000
$1,880,000
$2,091,000
$1,580,000
$1,900,000
$1,500,000
$1,787,500
$1,325,000
$1,550,000
$1,175,000
$1,360,000
$1,206,000
$1,107,500
$875,000
$971,500
$780,000
$970,000
$852,500
$857,500
$785,000
TheCarmel-PebbleBeachregion also includes Carmel Valley, Pacific Grove & the City of Monterey.
Median House Sales Prices
4BR/3BA, 2000 - 2300 Sq.Ft. House
3BR/2BA, 1400 - 1750 Sq.Ft. House
Median price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that typically disguises an enormous range of sales prices in the individual underlying sales. Counties and regions contain submarkets of widely different values. How these prices apply to any particular home is unknown without a comparative market analysis.
Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance in the 12 months through 2/28/26. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all sales are reported to MLS. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
Marin
Alameda
Napa
Contra Costa Monterey (all)
Sonoma
Santa Cruz
Median House Dollar per Square Foot Values
$1,209
$1,009
$1,155
$1,132
$981 $951
Carmel-Pebble Beach Region
$962 $893
$865
$810
$758
$730
Santa Cruz
Marin Alameda Napa
Monterey (all) Sonoma
$743
$644
$558
$528
$556
$446
$509
$404
Contra Costa
$501
by Greater Bay Area County, 12 Months Sales* Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance in the 12 months through 2/28/26. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all sales are reported to MLS. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
TheCarmel-Pebble Beach region also includes Carmel Valley, Pacific Grove & the City of Monterey.
Median House $/Sq.Ft. Values
3BR/2BA, 1400 - 1750 Sq.Ft. House
4BR/3BA, 2000 - 2300 Sq.Ft. House
$/sq.ft. is based upon interior living space and doesn’t
include garages, attics, basements, rooms built without permit, decks or lot size. All things being equal, a smaller home will typically sell for a higher $/sq.ft. value.
Counties contain submarkets of widely different values. How these values apply to any particular home is unknown without a comparative market analysis.
New Listings Coming on Market
Monterey County Market Dynamics & Seasonality
The number of new listings in February 2026
continued to rise and was up 11% year over year. New-listing activity will almost certainly increase in coming months.
The number of new listings coming on market ebbs and flows by seasonal trends, though it can be affected by specific market dynamics.
Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, listings posted on site. Data from sources deemed
Monterey County Homes Market
st Active & Coming-Soon Listings on 1 of Month
As of 3/1/26, the number of listings was climbing slowly, and higher year over year.
Listing inventory will normally continue to rise through late summer or fall.*
The # of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the # of new listings coming on market, 2) how quickly buyers put them into contract, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling their homes off the market without selling.
* Active/Coming-Soon listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all listings are posted to MLS. All numbers approximate. The number of active listings constantly changes.
MSI measures how long it would take to sell the current inventory of active listings at the 12-month rate of sale. The lower the MSI, the stronger the buyer demand as compared to the supply of listings on the market.
These MSI readings are low to exceptionally low by long-term norms, but 2-BR and 3-BR house markets are especially heated. It is not unusual for the largest, most expensive homes to have higher MSI readings.
The number of listings going into contract in February 2026 increased from January and about 10% year over year.
The pending ratio is a version of absorption rate: The higher the percentage, the greater the demand as compared to the supply of listings available to buy.
Pandemic hits
The pending ratio is the ratio of the pending listing count (listings in contract) to the active listing count within the month.
*August figure estimated using data available in early September. Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, listings posted on site. Data from sources deemed reliable but maycontainerrorsandsubjectto revision. All numbersapproximate.
Monthly Home Sales Volume
Monterey County Market Dynamics & Seasonality
NOTE: Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offersin theprevious month. Monterey Countyoften sees substantial, but not particularly meaningful, monthly fluctuations in sales volume. The number of home sales in February 2026 began its new year rebound from the midwinter low in January.
Monterey County Luxury Home Sales
Closed sales mostly reflect accepted-offer activity in the previous month. Luxury home sales can fluctuate significantly from month to
but typically hit their
count in mid-
and then climb moving into spring. In recent years, fall has seen high sales volumes.
Price Reductions on Active Listings Monterey
The number of price reductions typically ebbs and flows by season but can also be affected by specific events in the economy and the market. The number usually peaks in late summer or fall.
Overbidding List Prices in Monterey County
Percentage of Home Sales Closing over List Price
Sales in 1 month mostly reflect market dynamics in the previous month.
Seasonal ebbs and flows are typical.
More overbidding
Higher overbidding percentages signify more competition for new listings. Overbidding usually peaks during the spring selling season, but monthly fluctuations are common. 25% of sales sold over asking price in February 2026.
Average Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage
Monterey County Over/Under Bidding: Market Dynamics & Seasonality
100% = an average sales price at original listprice.98% = anaverage salesprice2% below asking price. More expensive homes, on average, see lower SP/LP percentages than more affordable homes.
The average home sale sold about 4% below list price in February 2026.
Median Days on Market: Speed of Sale
Monterey County: Market Dynamics & Seasonality
A measurement of how quickly the listings which sell go into contract, this statistic ebbs and flows per seasonal demand trends, and is a lagging indicator of market conditions. More affordable homes typically sell more quickly than luxury homes.
Homes typically sell fastest in spring as buyers respond to the rush of new listings. In midwinter, sales are dominated by listings that have been on the market for longer periods of time.
Additional Economic Data
VIX Volatility Index*
By Day in 2025
“The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, is a real-time market index representing the [stock] market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days. Investors use the VIX to measure the level of risk, fear, or stress in the market when making investment decisions.” Quote from Investopedia
► On 3/6/26, the VIX Volatility Index hit its highest point since the tariff shock in April 2025.
Mar-25
*CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), per https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/vix_historical_data/ and/or Yahoo! Finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/history/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers approximate.
The CAPE ratio is a stock market valuation measure created by economist Robert Shiller. It is defined as the current price of the S&P 500 divided by the moving-average of 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings and is principally used to assess likely future returns over longer periods. A higher CAPE ratio can suggest investors are expecting higher future growth, or that the stock market is overvalued.
As of early 2026, the CAPE ratio has been running at its highest readings since the dotcom bubble.
Economic Policy Uncertainty Index*
By Month since January 2000
The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reading has plummeted since the April 2025 tariff shock butreboundedhigher in JanuaryandFebruary2026 toa level very high by long-term standards. This chart pre-dates the start of the Iran war.
Tariff shock►
The Economic Uncertainty Index is constructed from data analysis of 1) an index of search results from 10 large newspapers for terms related to economic and policy uncertainty, 2) reports by the Congressional Budget Office, and 3) the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters.*
*Source: 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty' by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, 3component index, www.PolicyUncertainty.com, https://www.policyuncertainty.com/us_monthly.html.
U.S. Jobs Report*
MonthlyChangeinNumber of Jobs, in Thousands*
Note: BLS often revises its monthly estimates, sometimes very substantially.
*U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “All employees, thousands, total nonfarm, seasonally adjusted”: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output view=net 1mth. Last 2 readings are labeled “preliminary” and often substantially revised. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. Monthly Change in U.S. NonFarm Employment, in Thousands Employment trends and job security continue to be major concerns of consumers and economists.
Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities,
views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.
Photo use under the Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
