Shrugging Off War, Buyer Demand Continues to Strengthen Moving Deeper into Spring
Despite significant negative economic effects from the Iran war – rising interest rates; volatile financial markets; soaring oil and gas prices; and fears of increased inflation –Bay Area real estate markets saw relatively little impact in March. What effects that occurred usually landed more heavily on less expensive markets more sensitive to interest rate increases. It is also possible that some sellers may have delayed listing their homes as they waited for more clarity regarding economic conditions. But so far, there has been no reaction comparable to what occurred last year with the tariff shock, and as of April 8th , virtually all economic indicators were turning in positive directions with the cease fire announcement.
Moving into spring, the number of listings going into contract climbed significantly year over year, but the number of new listings declined. This affected the balance between supply and demand, and the absorption rate increased and listings went into contract faster. Total sales volume as well as luxury sales jumped. This pressure of demand may lead to renewed price appreciation in the second quarter.
Report created in good faith using data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last period figures are preliminary estimates based on data available early in the following month. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported activity.
Monterey County House Sales
12 Months Sales by City/Region*
*12 months sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by mid-March 2026. Data based upon sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. Not all sales are reported to MLS.
There were also 219 condo sales and 57 townhouse sales in the county during the period.
Big Sur Coast (13), East Garrison (12), Gonzales (10), Castroville (7), Carmel Highlands (1)
Monterey County Home Prices
Median House Sales Prices, 12 Months Sales*
Pebble Beach
Carmel
Carmel Valley
Big Sur Coast
Pacific Grove
City of Monterey
East Garrison
Marina
Prunedale, Elkhorn
Castroville Seaside
Soledad Gonzales Salinas
Greenfield
King City
$2,795,000
$2,695,000
$1,650,000
$1,430,000
$1,361,000
$1,302,000
$1,060,000
$950,000
$880,000
$821,500
$785,000
$785,000
$677,500
$675,000
$555,000
$552,000
High Price Sale: $25,750,000
High Price Sale: $17,500,000
High Price Sale: $7,820,000
High Price Sale: $17,000,000
High Price Sale: $7,300,000
High Price Sale: $6,450,000
High Price Sale: $2,265,000
High Price Sale: $2,750,000
High Price Sale: $2,675,000
12 months sales through mid-March 2026*
High Price Sale: $3,220,000
Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that typically disguises a very wide range of prices in the underlying sales. Median sales prices sometimes fluctuate for reasons other than changes in fair market value.
This chart reflects median HOUSE sales prices. The median condo sales price in Monterey County was $700,000 in the period, and for townhouses, $900,000.
There was 1 sale reported for Carmel Highlands at $14,750,000.
Monterey County Home Values
Median House $/Sq.Ft. Values, 12 Months Sales*
How these values apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Carmel
Pebble Beach
Pacific Grove
City of Monterey
Carmel Valley
Seaside
Prunedale, Elkhorn
Marina
Salinas
East Garrison
Gonzales
Greenfield
Soledad
$1,331
$1,156
$1,065
$722
$720
$688
$545
$532
$504
$481
$396
$390
$377
King City
$353
DOLLAR PER SQUARE FOOT ($/sq.ft.) is based upon interior living space and does not include garages, attics, rooms built without permit, storage rooms, patios, decks or lot sizes (though all these can add value). All things being equal, a smaller house will typically sell for a higher $/sq.ft. per square foot *12
This chart illustrates HOUSE values. The median condo $/sq.ft. value in Monterey County was $638 in the period, and for townhouses, $598.
Monterey County Home Size
Median House Square Footage, 12 Months Sales*
Square footage is calculated on interior living space and doesn’t include garages, attics, basements, rooms built without permit, decks, patios or lot size. square feet
This chart illustrates median HOUSE size. The median condo size was 1100 square feet in the period, and for townhouses, 1481 sq.ft.
Markets with significantly larger lot sizes than normal are delineated.
Monterey County Median House Sales Prices
By Quarter, since 2017
Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that typically disguises a wide range of prices in the underlying sales. Besides changes in fair market value, median sales prices often rise and fall due to seasonal and short-term factors.
Pandemic hits
The county median house sales price in Q1 2026 was essentially unchanged year-over-year. Q3 2025
Q2 2024
Appreciation is typically measured year over year to account for market seasonality.
This analysis covers the cities of Monterey, Carmel, Carmel Valley, Carmel Highlands, Pebble Beach & Pacific Grove. Pandemic hits
Quarterly and seasonal fluctuations are common in this region. Outsized spikes up or down should be treated with caution until substantiated over the longer term.
This region is the most expensive in the county, so we have broken out its values separately here. Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that disguises a wide range of prices in the underlying sales.
Appreciation is typically measured year over year to account for market seasonality.
As reported to MLSLISTINGS, per Broker Metrics. Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. All numbers approximate and subject to revision. Last quarter may change with late reported sales.
3-Month Rolling Median Dollar per Square Foot Values*
Median $/sq.ft. value is a very general statistic, disguising an enormous range of values in the underlying sales. It is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, which explain many of the regular ups and downs in this chart. Longer-term trends are much more meaningful than short-term changes.
Carmel-Pebble Beach-City of Monterey-Pacific Grove Region
Monterey County - All
recession & foreclosure crisis
through March 2026
Monterey County
2026 YTD Home Sales by Price Segment*
$2,000,000 - $2,999,999 $5,000,000+
$3,000,000 - $4,999,999
$1,500,000 - $1,999,999 Under $750,000
Monterey County has an unusually wide range of home values, from among the most affordable in the greater Bay Area to among the most expensive.
Sales by Property Type*
• House 85%
• Condo 12%
• Townhouse 3%
$1,000,000 - $1,499,999
$750,000 –$999,999
*Sales and listings pending sale reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by 3/31/26. Not all sales are reported to MLS. Listings pending sale may not close, and pending-sale list prices may not reflect final closing prices. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. Percentages rounded and may not add up to 100%.
New Listings Coming on Market
Monterey County Market Dynamics & Seasonality
The number of new listings in March 2026 declined slightly from February and was down 10% year over year.
Monterey County Homes Market
As of 4/1/26, the number of listings was essentially unchanged from the previous month, but slightly higher year over year. Listing inventory will normally rise quickly through late summer or fall.*
The # of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the # of new listings coming on market, 2) how quickly buyers put them into contract, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling their homes off the market without selling. Updated April 1, 2026
* Active/Coming-Soon listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to
All numbers approximate. The number of active listings constantly
5%
Pending Ratio Monterey County Market Dynamics*
March 2021
Spring 2019
March 2020
Pandemic hits ▲
Pandemic boom
Spring 2022
The pending ratio is a version of absorption rate: The higher the percentage, the greater the demand as compared to the supply of listings available to buy. The ratio has been climbing moving deeper into the new year.
April 2023
March 2024
March 2025
▲ Interest rates soar
The pending ratio is the ratio of the pending listing count (listings in contract) to the active listing count within the month.
Updated through March 2026
*August figure estimated using data available in early September. Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, listings posted on site. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
Monthly Home Sales Volume
Monterey County Market Dynamics & Seasonality
July 2020
Aug. 2021
NOTE: Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month. Monterey County often sees substantial, but not particularly meaningful, monthly fluctuations in sales volume.
The number of home sales in March 2026 surged higher from February and year over year. May 2024 February
December
Oct. 2025
Pandemic boom: Historic lows in interest rates | Interest rate changes impact the market January April 2025
Sales of houses, condos, townhouses reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last month estimated based on available information and may change with late reported sales. All numbers approximate.
Updated through March 2026
Monterey County Luxury Home Sales
Homes Selling for $5 Million+ since 2020
Closed sales mostly reflect accepted-offer activity in the previous month. Luxury home sales can fluctuate significantly from month to month but typically hit their low count in midwinter and then climb moving into spring. In recent years, fall has seen high sales volumes.
The number of $5 million+ home sales in March 2026 surged higher to its highest month-ofMarch total since 2022.
Home sales reported to Norcal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last month estimated from available data and may change with late-reported sales. All numbers approximate. Not all sales are reported to MLS.
Price Reductions on Active Listings
Monterey County Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Sept. 2022
Aug.-Sept. 2021
Aug.-Oct. 2023
The number of price reductions typically ebbs and flows by season but can also be affected by specific events in the economy and the market. The number usually peaks in late summer or fall.
Sept. 2025
Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/,
Oct. 2024
Updated through March 2026
Overbidding List Prices in Monterey County
Percentage of Home Sales Closing over List Price
Sales in 1 month mostly reflect market dynamics in the previous month. Seasonal ebbs and flows are typical.
July 2021
April 2022
Higher overbidding percentages signify more competition for new listings. Overbidding usually peaks during the spring selling season, but monthly fluctuations are common. 25% of sales sold over asking price in March 2026.
June 2023
April 2024
More overbidding ▲
May 2019
Pandemic hits ▲
| Interest rate changes impact the market
April 2025
Updated through March 2026
Sales data reported to NORCAL MLS® ALLIANCE, per Infosparks. Reflecting the percentage of sales closing at sales prices over the final list prices. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
Average Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage
Monterey County Over/Under Bidding: Market Dynamics & Seasonality
April 2022
100% = an average sales price at original list price. 98% = an average sales price 2% below asking price. More expensive homes, on average, see lower SP/LP percentages than more affordable homes.
The average home sale sold about 4% below list price in March 2026.
June 2023
April 2024
Pandemic hits
| Interest rate changes impact the market
April 2025
Updated through March 2026
Median Days on Market: Speed of Sale
Monterey County: Market Dynamics & Seasonality
A measurement of how quickly the listings which sell go into contract, this statistic ebbs and flows per seasonal demand trends, and is a lagging indicator of market conditions. More affordable homes typically sell more quickly than luxury homes.
Homes typically sell fastest in spring as buyers respond to the rush of new listings. In midwinter, sales are dominated by listings that have been on the market for longer periods of time.
Pandemic boom
Sales of houses, condos, townhouses reported to NorCal MLS
per Infosparks. Data derived from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to
All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported
Selected
Economic Data
Mortgage Interest Rates, August 2022 to 2026 YTD
30-Year Conforming Fixed-Rate Loans, Weekly Average Readings*
Rates vary widely according to the property, price, borrower and lender.
Per Freddie Mac (FHLMC), on April 2, 2026, the weekly average, 30-year, conforming-loan interest rate rose to 6.46%, up from 5.98% before the Iran war began. The cease fire announced on 4/7/26 may exert downward pressure on interest rates.* Jan. 2026
war begins↑
*Freddie Mac (FHLMC), 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Weekly Average: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
Financial Markets,
2025 – 2026 YTD
Percentage Increases in S&P 500 & Nasdaq since 1/2/25
Nasdaq Index: % Change since 01/25
S&P 500 Index: % Change since 01/25
Tariff shock ►
Updated mid-day 4/8/26
Large changes in stock markets can dramatically affect household wealth, consumer confidence and housing markets, especially more affluent markets. Iran war begins ↑
Cease fire announced ↑
Data per MarketWatch.com, https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/comp/downloaddata and https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/download-data. Data from source deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Financial market values change constantly and all numbers to be considered approximate.
Crude Oil, Price per Barrel
Since February 2, 2026*
Dramatic ups and downs in oil prices can have considerable effects on manufacturer & consumer prices, transportation costs, inflation, consumer confidence and financial markets. Prices have often been volatile even on an intra-day basis as events, predictions, threats and announcements change.
| Iran war begins
Updated mid-day April 8, 2026
Cease fire announced |
*Per Yahoo! Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF/history/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers should be considered approximate.
Any impact of the Iran war ceasefire has not yet shown up in gas prices.
Updated mid-day 4/8/26
* U.S. Energy Information Administration, US Regular All Formulations Gas Price: Weighted average based on sampling of approximately 900 retail outlets. Not seasonally adjusted. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW and daily updates per https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors.
Economic Policy Uncertainty Index*
By Month since January 2000
The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reading has plummeted since the April 2025 tariff shock but rebounded higher in 2026 to a level very high by longterm standards. Still, the increase since the Iran war began has been muted.
The Economic Uncertainty Index is constructed from data analysis of 1) an index of search results from 10 large newspapers for terms related to economic and policy uncertainty, 2) reports by the Congressional Budget Office, and 3) the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters.*
Dotcom crash & 9/11
Tariff shock ►
Subprime crash & great recession
*Source: 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty' by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, 3component index, www.PolicyUncertainty.com, https://www.policyuncertainty.com/us_monthly.html.
Federal Funds Interest Rate since 1981
& Economic Interventions by Federal Reserve Bank*
Updated March 18, 2026
◄ Early 1980’s: Fed aggressively raises fed funds target rate to lower inflation rate
In September 2024, the Fed reduced the rate by a half point, and then by a quarter point in November and December. In September, October and December 2025, the rate was reduced by a quarter point each time. There were no changes in January or February 2026. Additional adjustments in 2026 are a topic of much discussion and uncertainty. Early 1990’s recession: Fed drops target interest rate 18 times, 1990-92
2022/2023: Acting to counter inflation, Fed increases target rate 11 times, then pauses 8/2023 – 8/2024
Subprime crash: Fed drops rate 10 times to effectively zero in 2007-08
2019, 2020, 2021: With the pandemic, the Fed drops the rate to effectively zero
High-tech & pandemic booms
Subprime boom
* Per Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and New York; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS; Last reading per https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr. Other data referenced from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.
Photo use under the Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
