In 2025, Bay Area real estate markets started the year seeing strong buyer demand, but had the wind taken out of their sails by the political/economic uncertainty that soared in early spring. Then, in midlate summer, stock markets rebounded to hit new highs, and interest rates began a sustained decline, initiating a shift in the psychology of buyers and sellers that is still developing. Still, national consumer confidence readings showed a significant split between the outlooks of more and less affluent households, and that affected market segments in different ways. Generally speaking, more expensive markets, powered by increasing demand from affluent buyers seeing substantial increases in household wealth from stock market gains, performed better than more affordable markets, which tended to be more impacted by concerns regarding inflation, affordability and employment. Of course, many of Monterey’s markets are very affluent. Most of the analyses in this report focus on annual statistics, which, of course, summarize a year of rapidly changing economic conditions. Overall, as measured by a range of standard indicators, the 2025 real estate market was very similar to 2024, and the median house sales price was unchanged. As 2026 begins, interest rates are near multi-year lows and stock markets are at or close to all-time peaks. Early in the new year, it is common for buyers, re-energized to move forward with major life decisions, to jump back into the market faster than sellers list their homes for sale. This disparity of increasing demand versus a low supply of new listings usually runs through the spring, typically making these months the most heated selling season of the year. Last year, this was upended by the tariff shock. Barring new, unexpected economic alarms, we expect this spring to be much stronger. NOTE: This report includes an image link to our comprehensive review of city and town home values and market dynamics.
Report created in good faith using data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last period figures are preliminary estimates based on data available early in the following month. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported activity.
Mortgage
Interest Rates in 2025 – 2026 YTD
30-YearConformingFixed-RateLoans,WeeklyAverageReadings* price, borrower and lender.
Per Freddie Mac (FHLMC), on January 8, 2026, the weekly average, 30-year, conforming-loaninterest rate was 6.16%, very close to its 2-year low.
*Freddie Mac (FHLMC), 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Weekly Average: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. Data from sources deemed reliable. Different sources of mortgage data sometimes vary in their determinations of daily and weekly rates. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers approximate.
Financial
Markets, 2025 – 2026 YTD
Percentage Increases in S&P 500 & Nasdaq since 1/2/25
Nasdaq Index: % Change since 01/25
S&P 500 Index: % Change since 01/25
Large changes in stock markets can dramatically affect household wealth, consumer confidence and housing markets, especially more affluent markets.
Tariff shock
►
Economic Policy Uncertainty Index*
By Month since January 2000
The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reading in November 2025 ticked up slightly. It has plummeted since April’s tariff shock, though remains elevated by long-term norms.
The Economic Uncertainty Index is constructed from data analysis of 1) an index of search results from 10 large newspapers for terms related to economic and policy uncertainty, 2) reports by the Congressional Budget Office, and 3) the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters.*
*Source: 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty' by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, 3component index, www.PolicyUncertainty.com, https://www.policyuncertainty.com/us_monthly.html.
from sources deemed reliable, but numbers to be considered approximate and subject to revision.
Monterey
$600,000
Median prices are generalities, most useful to discern broad market trends. They can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. The county contains cities, towns, neighborhoods of widely varying values.
2005-2007
The 2025 median house sales price was unchanged from 2024.
$400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0
Mid-90’s recovery to dotcom boom
Early 90’s recession, after 80’s boom
Subprime bubble
Market crash, foreclosure crisis
Recovery, high-tech, pandemic booms
*Per CA. Association of Realtors annual historical survey for existing single-family dwellings. 2025 an estimate based on sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by early Jan. 2026. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales. Various sources of data may calculate median sales prices slightly differently.
Monterey County Year-over-Year Appreciation Rates since 1990
Y-o-Y Percentage Change in Annual Median HOUSE Sales Price*
Early 1990’s recession
foreclosure prices ▼►
Foreclosure
Dotcom boom Subprime bubble
High-tech
Annual appreciation rates often varied widely between submarkets within the county. How this chart applies to any particular property is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
*Sales reported to MLS: year-over-year median existing house sales price appreciation rates, per CA Association of Realtors Annual Historical Survey. 2025 estimated using sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by early January 2026. Percentage-change labels typically rounded
and subject
and
Carmel, Carmel Valley, Pebble Beach, City of Monterey and Pacific Grove
The 2025 median house sales
Median prices are generalities, most useful to discern broad market trends. They can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. The region contains cities, towns and neighborhoods of widely varying values. price in the region was essentially unchanged from 2024.
* Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance in Carmel, Carmel Valley, Pebble Beach, City of Monterey and Pacific Grove by early January 2026. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and is subject to revision. All numbers approximate. Last period reading may change with late-reported sales.
Carmel-Pebble Beach-City of Monterey Region*
Y-o-YPercentageChangeinAnnualMedianHOUSESalesPrice since 1998*
Annual appreciation rates often varied widely between submarkets within the county. How this chart applies to any particular property is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
*Pertaining to Carmel, Carmel Valley, Carmel Highlands, Pebble Beach, City of Monterey, Pacific Grove. Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by early January 2026: Year-over-year
Monterey County: Median House $/Sq.Ft. Values
Median House Values by Year since 2005*
Carmel-Pebble Beach-Pacific Grove Monterey County (All)
The Carmel - Pebble Beach - Pacific Grove region includes Carmel Valley and the City of Monterey. Median values are generalities, most useful to discern broad market trends. They can be affected by other factors besides changesin fair market value (suchas changes inthe median size ofhomessold).
*Per NorCal MLS Alliance Infosparks calculations, for sales reported to MLS. Median
Median prices are generalities, most useful to discern broad market trends. They can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value.
Median condo sales prices fell in many Bay Area markets in 2025. The decline was small in Monterey.
Per sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance. Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
How these prices apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
High Price Sale: $2,675,000
High Price Sale: $3,220,000
12 months sales through mid-December 2025
Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that typically disguises a very wide range of prices in the underlying sales. Median sales prices sometimes fluctuate for reasons other than changes in fair market value.
This chart reflects median HOUSE sales prices.
The median condo sales price in Monterey County was $716,000 in the period, and for townhouses, $900,000. There was 1 sale reported for Carmel Highlands at $14,750,000.
Monterey County Residential Market
2025 Home Sales by Price Segment*
$3,000,000 - $4,999,999
$2,000,000$2,999,999
$1,500,000 - $1,999,999
$1,000,000
13 sales were reported for $10 million+ $5,000,000+
Monterey County Homes Market
As is the normal seasonal trend, the number of listings for sale on January 1st fell to its annual low count. Inventory will now start to rapidly increase.
The # of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the # of new listings coming on market, 2) how quickly buyers put them into contract, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling their homes off the market without selling.
* Active/Coming-Soon listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all listings are posted to MLS. All numbers approximate. The number of active listings constantly changes.
Monthly Home Sales Volume
Monterey County Market Dynamics & Seasonality
NOTE: Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month. Monterey County often sees substantial, but not particularly meaningful, monthly fluctuations in sales volume.
The number of home sales in December 2025 jumped 14% year over year.
Monterey County Annual Sales Volume
Number of Home Sales by Year, since 2005*
Annu a l SalesSalesvolumeisaffectedby both buyer demand and the numberof listings available to purchase, which are deeply impactedbypositiveandnegative economic conditions.
2025 sales volumeincreasedfrom 2024but remained farbelowhistoricalstandards.
*All attached and detached residential home sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance per Infosparks calculations. Data from sources deemed
Monterey County: Annual Sales - $5,000,000+
Number of Luxury Home Sales by Year, since 2005*
Sales: $5 Million+ Sales: $10 Million+
Sales of higher-price homes are affected by buyer demand, the number of listings available to purchase, and appreciation trends –all of which are impacted by economic and demographic conditions. As appreciation occurs over time, homes that would have sold for under $5 million, then sell for over that price threshold (and vice versa if prices fall).
*All attached and detached residential home sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance per Infosparks calculations. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, with last year’s total estimated based on available data in early January and may change due to late-reported sales. Not all luxury home sales are reported to MLS.
Monterey
*Average
but
NorCal
All
This statistic is an indicator of the strength of buyer demand vs. the supply of homes for sale, measuring – for homes sold – the average time between a listing coming on market and offer acceptance.
The market typi call y sees substantial seasonal
variations in this metric, which do not appear in this annual trend chart. On average, more expensive homes usually take substantially longer to sell than more affordable homes.
Monterey County – Overbidding Asking Price
Generally speaking, the stronger the demand as compared to the supply of homes for sale, the more buyers compete to win the sale by overbidding asking price. Expensive homes typically see lower overbidding percentages than more affordable homes.
*Sales over final list price: All attached and detached residential home sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance per Infosparks calculations. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change due to late- reported sales. Not all sales are reported to MLS.
100% = an average sales price at the original asking price; 101% = an
average 1% over asking; 96% = an average 4%belowasking. Overbidding percentages are typically lower for luxuryhomesandhigherinmore affordable price segments than the percentagesillustrated here.
& great
Market recovery/hightech boom
*The ratio of sales price to the original list price: All attached and detached residential home sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance per Infosparks calculations. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Percentages rounded. All numbers approximate and may change due to late-reported sales. Not all sales are reported to MLS.
Annual Number of Price Reductions
3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000
Bay Area Median House Values by County
2025 Sales By Bedroom/Bath Count*
County/Region
Alameda County
Contra Costa
Marin County
Carmel-Pebble
Beach Region
4 Bedroom, 3 Bath Houses
$1,626,500
$1,075,000
$1,905,000
$2,000,000
$739/sq.ft.
$478/sq.ft.
$793/sq.ft.
$909/sq.ft.
The “Carmel-Pebble Beach Region” includes the City of Monterey, Carmel Valley, Carmel Highlands & Pacific Grove. “More affordable Monterey” covers the rest of the county.
5+ Bedroom, 4+ Bath Houses, 3000+ sq.ft.
$2,750,000
Monterey County
More Affordable Napa County
San Francisco
San Mateo County
Santa Clara County
Santa Cruz County
Sonoma County
$970,000
$1,110,000
$2,200,000
$2,622,500
$2,210,000
$1,550,000
$920,000
$428/sq.ft.
$511/sq.ft.
$974/sq.ft.
$1103/sq.ft.
$1023/sq.ft.
$677/sq.ft.
$423/sq.ft. per Square Foot Price
$3,772,500
$5,830,000
$2,650,000 Too
$4,000,000
$5,500,000
$939/sq.ft.
$965/sq.ft.
$513/sq.ft. per Square Foot
$941/sq.ft.
$1232/sq.ft.
$1375/sq.ft.
$1158/sq.ft.
$616/sq.ft.
*Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance in 2025 through mid-December 2025. Counties and regions contain submarkets of widely varying values. “Fixer-uppers” excluded. Median values fluctuate for reasons besides changes in fair market value. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and data constantly changes as new sales occur. Not all sales are reported to MLS.
Bay Area Median House Values by County
2025 Sales By Bedroom/Bath Count*
2 Bedroom, 1-2 Bath Houses
County/Region
Alameda County
$575,000
Marin County
Carmel-Pebble
Santa Clara County
Santa Cruz County
Sonoma
$1,225,000
$1,300,000
$976/sq.ft.
$1156/sq.ft.
$606/sq.ft. $775/sq.ft.
$1083/sq.ft.
$1292/sq.ft.
$1197/sq.ft.
$792/sq.ft.
The “Carmel-Pebble Beach Region” includes the City of Monterey, Carmel Valley, Carmel Highlands & Pacific Grove. “More affordable Monterey” covers the rest of the county.
3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Houses
*Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance in 2025 through mid-December 2025. Counties and regions contain submarkets of widely varying values. “Fixer-uppers” excluded. Median values fluctuate for reasons besides changes in fair market value. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and data constantly changes as new sales occur. Not all sales are reported to MLS.
$524/sq.ft.
$597/sq.ft.
$1005/sq.ft.
$1153/sq.ft.
$1249/sq.ft.
$758/sq.ft.
$532/sq.ft.
Bay Area Median Condo & Townhouse Values
2025 Sales By Property Type & Bedroom/Bath Count*
2 Bedroom, 2 Bath Condos
County/Region
Alameda County
Contra Costa
Marin County
Carmel-Pebble
Beach Region
More Affordable
Monterey County
Napa County
San Francisco
San Mateo County
Santa Clara County
Santa Cruz County
Sonoma County
$558/sq.ft.
$497/sq.ft.
$661/sq.ft.
$715/sq.ft.
$450/sq.ft.
$929/sq.ft.
$1051/sq.ft.
$742/sq.ft.
The “Carmel-Pebble Beach Region” includes the City of Monterey, Carmel Valley, Carmel Highlands & Pacific Grove. “More affordable Monterey” covers the rest of the county.
3 Bedroom, 2-3 Bath Townhouses
MedianDollar per Square Foot
$608/sq.ft.
$524/sq.ft.
$561/sq.ft.
$685/sq.ft.
*Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance in 2025 through mid-December 2025. Counties and regions contain submarkets of widely varying values. “Fixer-uppers” excluded. Median values fluctuate for reasons besides changes in fair market value. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and data constantly changes as new sales occur. Not all sales are reported to MLS.
$386/sq.ft.
Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities,
views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.
Photo use under the Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
