Marin County Real Estate March 2026 Report with market data through February
The Market Accelerates
Moving into spring, rising buyer demand vs. an inadequate supply of homes for sale is creating a rapidly heating market characterized by increasing buyer competition, faster sales and more overbidding of asking price. The upcoming months are typically the most active of the year and on current trends, conditions are expected to generate continuing upward pressure on home values. Median home sales prices often hit their calendar-year highs in spring, due to the severe imbalance between supply and demand, as well as a seasonal surge in luxury home sales. As was the case last year, houses are seeing stronger market conditions than condos, and more affluent buyers continue to play an outsized role in demand and home-price appreciation. The wild card in coming months is what sustained effects, if any, the Iran war may have on inflation, interest rates, financial markets and consumer confidence. There may be no significant impact on housing, unlike the tariff shock which caused an abrupt slowdown in last year’s spring market.
Report created in good faith using data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last period figures are preliminary estimates based on data available early in the following month. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported activity.
Mortgage Interest Rates, August 2022 to 2026 YTD
30-Year Conforming Fixed-Rate Loans, Weekly Average Readings*
Rates vary widely according to the property, price, borrower and lender.
Per Freddie Mac (FHLMC), on March 5, 2026, the weeklyaverage, 30-year,conforming-loaninterest rate, illustrated on this chart, was 6%, essentially unchanged from the previous week. (However, as of 3/6/26, the daily average rate has risen to 6.14%, increasing 15 basis points since the Iran war began.)*
3/30/23
*Freddie Mac (FHLMC), 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Weekly Average: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
Crude Oil, Price per Barrel
Since February 2, 2026*
Dramatic ups and downs in oil prices, if sustained, can have considerable effects on consumer prices, transportation costs, inflation, consumer confidence and financial markets.
*Per Yahoo! Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF/history/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers should be considered approximate.
Updated through March 6, 2026
Iran war begins
Financial Markets, 2025 – 2026
YTD
Percentage Increases in S&P 500 & Nasdaq since 1/2/25
Nasdaq Index: % Change since 01/25
S&P 500 Index: % Change since 01/25
Large changes in stock markets can dramatically affect household wealth, consumer confidence and housing markets, especially more affluent markets.
Data per MarketWatch.com, https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/comp/downloaddata and https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/download-data. Data from source deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Financial market values change constantly and all numbers to be considered approximate.
Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic, disguising an enormous range of sales prices in the underlying sales. It is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, which explain many of the regular ups and downs in this chart.
The 3-month-rolling median house sales price in February 2026 rose about 1.5% year over year. Median sales prices typically peak in spring.
recession
Appreciation is typically measured year over year to account for market seasonality.
through February 2026
$$800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $1,800,000 $1,600,000 $1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $2,000,000
Marin County House Value Trendssince 2005
3-Month-RollingMedianDollarperSquareFoot Values*
Median $/sq.ft. value is a very general statistic, disguising an enormous range of values in the underlying sales. It is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, which explain many of the regular ups and downs in this chart. Longer-term trends are much more meaningful than short-term changes.
Median sales prices and median $/sq.ft. values don’t always move in lockstep, since factors such as the median size of homes sold can affect them differently.
The 3-month-rolling median house $/sq.ft. value in February 2026 was essentially unchanged year over year.
Median Dollar per Square Foot Value by House Size
MarinCounty 2024&2025Sales,andYear-over-YearPercentageChange*
$944
$875 $852
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon interior living space and doesn’t include garages, attics, basements, rooms built without permit, decks, patios or lot size (though these can add significant value). All things being equal, a smaller home will typically sell for a higher dollar per square foot value. But the largest homes are usually located in more affluent, more expensive markets on bigger lots, and they saw the highest 2024 to 2025 appreciation rates.
reported to NorCal Alliance.Year-over-year
Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic, often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. In Marin it is often subject to large anomalous fluctuations due to the relatively low number of sales across markets of very different values.
The 3-month-rolling median condo sales price in February 2026 was down about 13% from February 2025 – but this statistic often sees large anomalous fluctuations.
3-Month Rolling Median Condo Sales Price $800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $200,000 $300,000
Great recession
About 55% of Marin’s condo sales occur in San Rafael and Novato.
Updated through February 2026
and may change with
Median
House Sales Prices: 3-Bedroom & 4-Bedroom Homes by Bay Area County, 12 Months Sales*
San Mateo
$2,400,000
$1,830,000
$2,297,500
$1,700,000
$2,160,000
$1,880,000
$2,091,000
$1,580,000
$1,550,000
$1,175,000
Santa Cruz
$1,450,000
$1,210,000
$1,360,000
$1,206,000
$1,107,500
Median House Sales Prices
4BR/3BA, 2000 - 2300 Sq.Ft. House
3BR/2BA, 1400 - 1750 Sq.Ft. House
Contra Costa Sonoma Solano
$875,000
$971,500
$780,000
$857,500
$785,000
$680,000
$565,000 Napa
Median price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that typically disguises an enormous range of sales prices in the individual underlying sales. Counties and regions contain submarkets of widely different values. How these prices apply to any particularhome isunknownwithoutacomparative market analysis.
South Marin
Santa Clara
San Francisco Alameda
North Marin
Ross/Kentfield to Sausalito
San Rafael/San Anselmo to Novato
Median House Dollar per Square Foot Values
by Bay Area County, 12 Months Sales*
Santa Clara San Mateo
South Marin
$1,209
$1,009
$1,155
$1,132
$1,104
$1,052
San Francisco
North Marin Alameda
Ross/Kentfield to Sausalito
$981 $951 $787 $674
$758
$730
Santa Cruz
$743
$644
$558
San Rafael/San Anselmo to Novato
Median House $/Sq.Ft. Values
3BR/2BA, 1400 - 1750 Sq.Ft. House
4BR/3BA, 2000 - 2300 Sq.Ft. House
Contra Costa Solano
$528
$509
$404
$501
$451
$362
$317 Napa Sonoma
$/sq.ft. is based upon interior living space and doesn’t include garages, attics, basements, rooms built without permit, decks or lot size. All things being equal, a smaller home will typically sell for a higher $/sq.ft. value.
Counties and regions contain submarkets of widely different values. How these values apply to any particular home is unknown without a comparative market analysis.
New Listings Coming on Market
Marin County Market Dynamics & Seasonality*
The number of new listings coming on market ebbs and flows by seasonal trends, though it can be affected by specific market dynamics.
The number of new listings in February 2026 increased from the January but fell year over year. New-listing activity will normally rise rapidly in coming months.
*Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, listings posted on site, or per Broker Metrics. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. May not include “coming-soon” listings. All numbers are approximate and may change with late-reported activity.
As of 3/1/26, the number of listings was climbing, but 13% lower year over year. Listing inventory will almost certainly continue to rise through summer or fall.* numberof newlistings coming on market,2) howquickly buyers put them into contract, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling homes off the market without selling.
The quantity of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the
* Active/Coming-Soon listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all listings are posted to MLS. All numbers approximate. The number of active listings constantly changes.
Marin County: Supply vs. Demand
#ofListingson Marketvs.AverageMonthlySales*
MSI measures how long it would take tosell the current inventory of active listings at the 12-month rate of sale. The lower the MSI, the stronger the buyer demand as compared to the supply of listings on the market.
As buyers jump back into the market in the new year faster than sellers list their homes, March is typically one of the months in which the supply of listings is lowest as compared to demand. Most of these are exceptionally low MSI readings, signifying very heated/competitive markets.
Overbidding List Prices in Marin County
Percentage of Home Sales Closing over List Price
Sales in 1 month mostly reflect market dynamics in the previous month. Seasonal ebbs and flows are common.
Higher overbidding percentages signify more buyer competition for new listings. The percentage usually runs lowest in mid-winter, and highest in spring. In February 2026, 43% of sales sold over list price, rebounding dramatically from January’s low.
More overbidding
April 2023
2024
Average Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage
Marin County Over/Under Bidding: Market Dynamics & Seasonality Sales in 1 month mostly
100% = an average sales price at original list price. 102% = an average sales price 2% over asking price; 98% = 2% below asking price. Overbidding usually peaks in spring. reflect market dynamics in the previous month.
In February 2026, the average home sale sold for about 1.5% below asking price.
through February 2026
Median Days on Market: Speed of Sale
Marin County: Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Homes typically sell fastest in spring as buyers respond to the rush of new listings. In midwinter, sales are dominated by listings that have been
for longer periods of time.
A measurement of how quickly the listings which sell go into contract, this statistic fluctuates dramatically according to seasonal demand trends and is a lagging indicator of market activity 3-6 weeks earlier.
Listings Accepting Offers (Going into Contract)
Marin County Market Dynamics & Seasonality
The number of listings going into contract in February 2026 surged higher from the January low and was significantly higher year over year. The count typically rises to peak in spring.
Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers
Absorption rate is the comparison of buyer demand vs. the supply of homes for sale: The higher the percentage, the more heated and competitive the market. The rate jumped higher in February 2026 as
grew
than supply.
*Bareis MLS reported data for houses, condos and townhouses, per Broker Metrics. Last month’s data estimated using available data, may change with late reported activity. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
Marin County Real Estate Market since 2018, 3-Month Rolling Average
By national standards, the county’s MSI reading is very low.
MSI measures how long it would take to sell the current inventory of active listings at the current rate of sale. The lower the MSI, the stronger the buyer demand as compared to the supply of listings on the market. MSI typically fluctuates to seasonal trends in listing and sales activity.
Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month. The number of sales in February 2026 jumped from the January low count and was about 30% higher year over year. Sales volume commonly peaks in late spring.
Marin County Higher Price & Luxury Home Sales by Month
Homes Selling for $4 Million+ since 2020
Closed sales mostly reflect accepted-offer activity in the previous month. The luxury market typically ebbs and flows dramatically by season: Peaking in spring, hitting its low point in mid-winter.
The number of price reductions in February 2026 fell 15% year over year.
Thenumberof price reductions typically ebbs and flows by season, but can also be affected by specific events in the economy and the market. It’s not
May unusual for price reductions to peak in autumn.
Tariff shock
Additional Economic Data
VIX Volatility Index*
By Day in 2025
“The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, is a real-time market index representing the [stock] market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days. Investors use the VIX to measure the level of risk, fear, or stress in the market when making investment decisions.” Quote from Investopedia
► On 3/6/26, the VIX Volatility Index hit its highest point since the tariff shock in April 2025.
Mar-25
*CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), per https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/vix_historical_data/ and/or Yahoo! Finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/history/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers approximate.
The CAPE ratio is a stock market valuation measure created by economist Robert Shiller. It is defined as the current price of the S&P 500 divided by the moving-average of 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings and is principally used to assess likely future returns over longer periods. A higher CAPE ratio can suggest investors are expecting higher future growth, or that the stock market is overvalued.
As of early 2026, the CAPE ratio has been running at its highest readings since the dotcom bubble.
Economic Policy Uncertainty Index*
By Month since January 2000
The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reading has plummeted since the April 2025 tariff shock butreboundedhigher in JanuaryandFebruary2026 toa level very high by long-term standards. This chart pre-dates the start of the Iran war.
Tariff shock►
The Economic Uncertainty Index is constructed from data analysis of 1) an index of search results from 10 large newspapers for terms related to economic and policy uncertainty, 2) reports by the Congressional Budget Office, and 3) the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters.*
*Source: 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty' by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, 3component index, www.PolicyUncertainty.com, https://www.policyuncertainty.com/us_monthly.html.
U.S. Jobs Report*
MonthlyChangeinNumber of Jobs, in Thousands*
Note: BLS often revises its monthly estimates, sometimes very substantially.
*U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “All employees, thousands, total nonfarm, seasonally adjusted”: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output view=net 1mth. Last 2 readings are labeled “preliminary” and often substantially revised. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. Monthly Change in U.S. NonFarm Employment, in Thousands Employment trends and job security continue to be major concerns of consumers and economists.
Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities,
views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.
Photo use under the Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.