Shrugging Off War, Buyer Demand Continues to Strengthen Moving Deeper into Spring
Despite significant negative economic effects from the Iran war – rising interest rates; volatile financial markets; soaring oil and gas prices; and fears of increased inflation –Bay Area real estate markets saw relatively little impact in March. What effects that occurred usually landed more heavily on less expensive markets more sensitive to interest rate increases. It is also possible that some sellers may have delayed listing their homes as they waited for more clarity regarding economic conditions. But so far, there has been no reaction comparable to what occurred last year with the tariff shock, and as of April 8th , virtually all economic indicators were turning in positive directions with the cease fire announcement.
Moving into spring, both the number of new listings and the number of homes going into contract climbed significantly month over month. The absorption rate and overbidding increased, listings went into contract faster, and price reductions fell year over year. This increased activity and pressure of demand may lead to renewed price appreciation in the second quarter.
As has been the case for the last 2 years, affluent markets typically remained more heated than less expensive markets, and house markets considerably stronger than condo markets.
Report created in good faith using data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last period figures are preliminary estimates based on data available early in the following month. All numbers approximate and may change with latereported activity.
Marin County Home Sales
12 Months House Sales by Market*
This chart pertains to HOUSE sales. There were also 365 condo sales and 150 townhouse sales in the period.
Greenbrae (34), San Geronimo Valley (32), Ross (31), Inverness (15), Stinson Beach (14), Dillon Beach (11), Bolinas (11), Pt. Reyes (5), Nicasio (3)
Marin County Market
Median House Sales Prices & High Sales, $5 Million+*
Belvedere
Stinson Beach
Tiburon
Ross
Kentfield
Larkspur
Sausalito
Mill Valley
Greenbrae
Bolinas
Corte Madera
San Anselmo
Central San Rafael
Inverness
N. San Rafael
Dillon Beach
Novato
Fairfax
San Geronimo Vly
$5,970,000
$4,936,500
$3,650,000
$3,400,000
$3,100,000
$2,600,000
$2,375,000
$2,275,000
$2,175,000
$2,000,000
$1,950,000
$1,850,000
$1,490,000
$1,420,000
$1,360,000
$1,300,000
$1,250,000
$1,150,000
$1,095,000
High Price Sale: $15,000,000
High Price Sale: $14,500,000
High Price Sale: $13,217,000
High Price Sale: $15,700,000
High Price Sale: $13,000,000
High Price Sale: $10,250,000
High Price Sale: $7,500,000
High Price Sale: $11,500,000
High Price Sale: $5,625,000
High Price Sale: $6,850,000
12 months sales through mid-March 2026*
High Price Sale: $5,100,000
Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that typically disguises a huge range of prices in the underlying sales. It can be affected by a variety of factors, including location, median home size, lot size, quality of construction, amenities, views, parking and so on.
This chart applies to HOUSE sales. The median condo sales price was $639,000, and the median townhouse price was $857,000. The majority of condo and townhouse sales were in San Rafael and Novato.
Markets with lower sales volumes often see more fluctuation in their median sales prices.
Marin County Home Values
Median House $/Sq.Ft. Values*
Stinson Beach
Belvedere
Tiburon Ross
Larkspur
Corte Madera
Kentfield
Mill Valley
Inverness
Sausalito
Greenbrae
San Anselmo
San Rafael
Dillon Beach
Fairfax
San Geronimo Vly
Novato
$2,631
$1,884
$1,423
$1,262
$1,180
$1,124
$1,095
$1,072
$1,072
$1,063
$1,009
$879
$780
$754
$753
$683
$608
12 Months Sales*
DOLLAR PER SQUARE FOOT ($/sq.ft.) is based upon interior living space and does not include garages, storage rooms, patios, decks or lot sizes. All things being equal, a smaller house will sell for a higher $/sq.ft.
This chart applies to HOUSE sales. The county median condo $/sq.ft. value was $589, and for townhouses, $562. *12 months sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by mid-March 2026. Data
Marin County Home Size
Median house size in the Bay Area was approx. 1800 sq.ft.
Comparing median house sales prices between markets is not apples to apples, since the median size of houses sold can vary so widely.
Square footage is calculated on interior living space and doesn’t include garages, attics, basements, rooms built without permit, decks, patios or lot size.
Marin County Residential Market
$5,000,000+
$4,000,000 - $4,999,999
$3,000,000 - $3,999,999
*Sales and listings pending sale reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by 3/31/26. Not all sales are reported to MLS. Listings pending sale may not close, and pending-sale list prices may not reflect final closing prices. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. Percentages rounded and may not add
Marin County House Price Appreciation
Median House Sales Prices since 2015, by Quarter
Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that disguises a wide range of prices in the underlying sales. Among other factors, changes in the median size of homes sold within different periods can affect median sales values.
It’s not unusual for median sales prices to peak for the year in spring (Q2).
Pandemic hits
Year over year, the Q1 2026 median house sales price was unchanged. Q2 2022 Peak
$1,700,500 $1,550,000 $1,642,500 $1,805,000 $1,700,000 $1,678,000 $1,595,000 $1,800,000 $1,701,000 $1,700,000 $1,600,000 $1,800,000 $1,600,000 $1,640,000 $1,750,000 $2,000,000 $1,750,000 $1,607,500 $1,730,000 $1,722,500 $1,550,000 $1,437,500 $1,525,000 $1,355,000 $1,300,000 $1,300,000 $1,260,000 $1,356,000 $1,232,500 $1,275,000 $1,295,000 $1,400,000 $1,291,250 $1,230,000 $1,205,000 $1,287,500 $1,185,000 $1,122,000 $1,195,000 $1,225,000 $1,103,000 $1,150,500 $1,050,000 $1,015,000$1,108,000 $800,000 $900,000 $1,000,000 $1,100,000 $1,200,000 $1,300,000 $1,400,000 $1,500,000 $1,600,000 $1,700,000 $1,800,000 $1,900,000 $2,000,000
Appreciation is typically measured year over year to account for market seasonality.
Marin County House Value Trends since 2005
3-Month-Rolling Median Dollar per Square Foot Values*
Median $/sq.ft. value is a very general statistic, disguising an enormous range of values in the underlying sales. It is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, which explain many of the regular ups and downs in this chart. Longer-term trends are much more meaningful than short-term changes.
Median sales prices and median $/sq.ft. values don’t always move in lockstep, since factors such as the median size of homes sold can affect them differently.
2007
Year over year, the Q1 2026 median house $/sq.ft. value rose about 1.5%.
2022
2019
2023 2024
Pandemic boom 2025
Pandemic
hits ▲
Great recession & foreclosure crisis
*3-month rolling median house sales values reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
Updated through March 2026
$450,000 $500,000 $550,000 $600,000 $650,000 $700,000 $750,000 $800,000
Marin County Condo Price Trend by Quarter
Median Condo Sales Prices since 2016
Condo sales make up less than 20% of the Marin County home market, and anomalous fluctuations in median sales price are common due to the relatively low sales volumes spread across very different markets.
Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value.
Pandemic hits
Q3
2022
Generally speaking, condo markets have been much weaker than house markets around the Bay Area.
As
New Listings Coming on Market
Marin County Market Dynamics & Seasonality*
*Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/,
Marin County Homes Market
As of 4/1/26, the number of listings was climbing, and slightly higher year over year. Listing inventory will almost certainly continue to rise through summer or fall.*
The quantity of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the number of new listings coming on market, 2) how quickly buyers put them into contract, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling homes off the market without selling. Updated April 1, 2026
* Active/Coming-Soon listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all listings are posted to
All numbers approximate. The number of active listings constantly changes.
Homes for Sale in Marin County
Overbidding List Prices in Marin County
Percentage of Home Sales Closing over List Price
May 2021
MidWinter Spring 2022
More overbidding ▲
Sales in 1 month mostly reflect market dynamics in the previous month. Seasonal ebbs and flows are common.
Higher overbidding percentages signify more buyer competition for new listings. The percentage usually runs lowest in mid-winter, and highest in spring. In March 2026, 45% of sales sold over list price, the highest % since spring 2025.
MidWinter April 2023
April 2025 Fall 2024 Fall 2023
| Peak of pandemic boom | Fall 2025
MidWinter April 2024 MidWinter
MidWinter
Updated through March 2026
Sales data reported to NORCAL MLS® ALLIANCE, per Infosparks. Reflecting the percentage of sales closing at sales prices over the final list prices. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
Average
Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage Marin County Over/Under Bidding: Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Sales in 1 month mostly reflect market dynamics in the previous month.
100% = an average sales price at original list price. 102% = an average sales price 2% over asking price; 98% = 2% below asking price. Overbidding usually peaks in spring.
In March 2026, the average home sale sold for about 1% over asking price.
through March 2026
Median Days on Market: Speed of Sale
Marin County: Market Dynamics & Seasonality
A measurement of how quickly the listings which sell go into contract, this statistic fluctuates dramatically according to seasonal demand trends and is a lagging indicator of market activity 3-6 weeks earlier.
Homes typically sell fastest in spring as buyers respond to the rush of new
In March 2026, median days on market fell rapidly as the market moved into spring.
Listings Accepting Offers (Going into Contract)
Marin County Market Dynamics & Seasonality
The number of listings going into contract in March 2026 surged higher from February and was slightly higher year over year.
Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers (Going into Contract)
Marin County: Absorption Rate by Month
April 2021
Pandemic boom: Extreme lows in interest rates
March 2022
March 2023
Absorption rate is the comparison of buyer demand vs. the supply of homes for sale: The higher the percentage, the more heated and competitive the market. The rate increased substantially in February and March as the 2026 market heated up.
March 2024
| Pandemic hits
| Interest rate changes impact the market
March 2025
*Bareis MLS reported data for houses, condos and townhouses, per Broker Metrics. Last month’s data estimated using available data, may change with late reported activity. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
Updated through March 2026
Marin County Real Estate Market since 2018, 3-Month Rolling Average
MSI measures how long it would take to sell the current inventory of active listings at the current rate of sale. The lower the MSI, the stronger the buyer demand as compared to the supply of listings on the market. MSI typically fluctuates to seasonal trends in listing and sales activity.
Monthly Sales Volume
Marin County Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month.
Sales volume commonly peaks in late spring.
through March 2026
Sales of houses, condos, townhouses reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last month estimated based on available information and may change with late reported sales. All numbers approximate.
Marin County Higher Price & Luxury Home Sales by Month
Homes Selling for $4 Million+ since 2020
Closed sales mostly reflect accepted-offer activity in the previous month. The luxury market typically ebbs and flows dramatically by season: Peaking in spring, hitting its low point in mid-winter.
Price Reductions on Active Listings
Marin County Market Dynamics & Seasonality
The number of price reductions in March 2026 fell 16% year over year.
The number of price reductions typically ebbs and flows by season, but can also be affected by specific events in the economy and the market. It’s not unusual for price reductions to peak in autumn. May 2025
Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/,
and
Updated through March 2026
Selected Economic & Demographic Data
Marin County Population Trends since 2010
U.S. Census Estimates, July 1st to July 1st
Population changes are driven by domestic and foreign migration into and out of the county, and by natural causes, i.e., births less deaths.
Changes measured from July 1st of previous year to July 1st of labeled year.
Pandemic hits ▲
2024 to 2025, the county saw negative domestic migration (-2764), positive foreign migration (+738), and more births than deaths (+28).
Since the pandemic struck: -15,150 in net domestic migration, +6230 in net foreign migration, and +227 in natural change.
Estimates as of July 1 of each year. 2020-2025 data published March 26, 2026, by U.S. Census. The Census often revises numbers in subsequent estimates. All numbers to be considered approximate. Census numbers may not total perfectly due to “Population change that cannot be attributed to any specific demographic component.”
Mortgage Interest Rates, August 2022 to 2026 YTD
30-Year Conforming Fixed-Rate Loans, Weekly Average Readings*
Rates vary widely according to the property, price, borrower and lender.
Per Freddie Mac (FHLMC), on April 2, 2026, the weekly average, 30-year, conforming-loan interest rate rose to 6.46%, up from 5.98% before the Iran war began. The cease fire announced on 4/7/26 may exert downward pressure on interest rates.* Jan. 2026
war begins↑
*Freddie Mac (FHLMC), 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Weekly Average: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
Financial Markets,
2025 – 2026 YTD
Percentage Increases in S&P 500 & Nasdaq since 1/2/25
Nasdaq Index: % Change since 01/25
S&P 500 Index: % Change since 01/25
Tariff shock ►
Updated mid-day 4/8/26
Large changes in stock markets can dramatically affect household wealth, consumer confidence and housing markets, especially more affluent markets. Iran war begins ↑
Cease fire announced ↑
Data per MarketWatch.com, https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/comp/downloaddata and https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/download-data. Data from source deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Financial market values change constantly and all numbers to be considered approximate.
Crude Oil, Price per Barrel
Since February 2, 2026*
Dramatic ups and downs in oil prices can have considerable effects on manufacturer & consumer prices, transportation costs, inflation, consumer confidence and financial markets. Prices have often been volatile even on an intra-day basis as events, predictions, threats and announcements change.
| Iran war begins
Updated mid-day April 8, 2026
Cease fire announced |
*Per Yahoo! Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF/history/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers should be considered approximate.
Any impact of the Iran war ceasefire has not yet shown up in gas prices.
Updated mid-day 4/8/26
* U.S. Energy Information Administration, US Regular All Formulations Gas Price: Weighted average based on sampling of approximately 900 retail outlets. Not seasonally adjusted. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW and daily updates per https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors.
Economic Policy Uncertainty Index*
By Month since January 2000
The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reading has plummeted since the April 2025 tariff shock but rebounded higher in 2026 to a level very high by longterm standards. Still, the increase since the Iran war began has been muted.
The Economic Uncertainty Index is constructed from data analysis of 1) an index of search results from 10 large newspapers for terms related to economic and policy uncertainty, 2) reports by the Congressional Budget Office, and 3) the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters.*
Dotcom crash & 9/11
Tariff shock ►
Subprime crash & great recession
*Source: 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty' by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, 3component index, www.PolicyUncertainty.com, https://www.policyuncertainty.com/us_monthly.html.
Federal Funds Interest Rate since 1981
& Economic Interventions by Federal Reserve Bank*
Updated March 18, 2026
◄ Early 1980’s: Fed aggressively raises fed funds target rate to lower inflation rate
In September 2024, the Fed reduced the rate by a half point, and then by a quarter point in November and December. In September, October and December 2025, the rate was reduced by a quarter point each time. There were no changes in January or February 2026. Additional adjustments in 2026 are a topic of much discussion and uncertainty. Early 1990’s recession: Fed drops target interest rate 18 times, 1990-92
Dotcom crash, 9/11 attack: Fed drops fed fund rate 12 times, 2001-02
Junk bond boom
Dotcom boom
2022/2023: Acting to counter inflation, Fed increases target rate 11 times, then pauses 8/2023 – 8/2024
Subprime crash: Fed drops rate 10 times to effectively zero in 2007-08
2019, 2020, 2021: With the pandemic, the Fed drops the rate to effectively zero
High-tech & pandemic booms
Subprime boom
* Per Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and New York; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS; Last reading per https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr. Other data referenced from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market.
City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.
Photo use under the Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.