In 2025, Bay Area real estate markets started the year seeing strong buyer demand, but had the wind taken out of their sails by the political/economic uncertainty that soared in early spring. Then, in midlate summer, stock markets rebounded to hit new highs, and interest rates began a sustained decline, initiating a shift in the psychology of buyers and sellers that is still developing. Still, national consumer confidence readings showed a significant split between the outlooks of more and less affluent households, and that affected market segments in different ways. Generally speaking, more expensive markets, powered by increasing demand from affluent buyers seeing substantial increases in household wealth from stock market gains, performed better than more affordable markets, which tended to be more impacted by concerns regarding inflation, affordability and employment. Of course, Marin is a very affluent market. Most of the analyses in this report focus on annual statistics, which, of course, summarize a year of rapidly changing economic conditions. Overall, as measured by a range of standard indicators, the 2025 real estate market was similar to 2024, maybe slightly cooler. The median house sales price was essentially unchanged. As 2026 begins, interest rates are near multi-year lows and stock markets are at or close to all-time peaks. Early in the new year, it is common for buyers, re-energized to move forward with major life decisions, to jump back into the market faster than sellers list their homes for sale. This disparity of increasing demand versus a low supply of new listings usually runs through the spring, typically making these months the most heated selling season of the year. Last year, this was upended by the tariff shock. Barring new, unexpected economic alarms, we expect this spring to be much stronger. NOTE: This report includes an image link to our comprehensive review of city and town home values and market dynamics. Report createdingood faithusing data fromsources deemedreliable but may containerrorsand subject to revision. Last period figures are preliminary estimates based on data available early in the following month. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported activity.
Mortgage
Interest Rates in 2025 – 2026 YTD
30-YearConformingFixed-RateLoans,WeeklyAverageReadings* price, borrower and lender.
Per Freddie Mac (FHLMC), on January 8, 2026, the weekly average, 30-year, conforming-loaninterest rate was 6.16%, very close to its 2-year low.
*Freddie Mac (FHLMC), 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Weekly Average: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. Data from sources deemed reliable. Different sources of mortgage data sometimes vary in their determinations of daily and weekly rates. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers approximate.
Financial
Markets, 2025 – 2026 YTD
Percentage Increases in S&P 500 & Nasdaq since 1/2/25
Nasdaq Index: % Change since 01/25
S&P 500 Index: % Change since 01/25
Large changes in stock markets can dramatically affect household wealth, consumer confidence and housing markets, especially more affluent markets.
Tariff shock
►
Economic Policy Uncertainty Index*
By Month since January 2000
The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reading in November 2025 ticked up slightly. It has plummeted since April’s tariff shock, though remains elevated by long-term norms.
The Economic Uncertainty Index is constructed from data analysis of 1) an index of search results from 10 large newspapers for terms related to economic and policy uncertainty, 2) reports by the Congressional Budget Office, and 3) the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters.*
*Source: 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty' by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, 3component index, www.PolicyUncertainty.com, https://www.policyuncertainty.com/us_monthly.html.
from sources deemed reliable, but numbers to be considered approximate and subject to revision.
County Median Home Sales Price by Year Annual Median House Sales Prices, 1990 – Present
Median prices are generalities, most useful to discern broad market trends. They can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. The county contains cities, towns and neighborhoods of widely varying values.
The median house sales price in 2025 was essentially unchanged from 2024.
Early 90’s recession, after 80’s boom to dotcom boom
*Per CA. Association of Realtors annual historical survey for existing single-family dwellings. Last year an estimate based on sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by early January. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales. Various sources of data may calculate median sales prices slightly differently.
Marin County Year-over-Year Appreciation Rates since 1990
Subprime
rates, per CA Association of Realtors or NorCal MLS Alliance. Percentage-change labels rounded to nearest
Annual Median House Sales Prices
byBayAreaCounty+Sacramento,2012–2025*
Due to specific market conditions and economic factors – such as the pandemic boom, interest rate changes, stock markets, the AI boom – appreciation rates between counties vary year-to-year, but over the longer term, county home prices throughout the region tend to move roughly in parallel.
Home values vary widely across submarkets within the county markets.
The median house $/sq.ft. value in 2025 was slightly down from 2024.
Median values are generalities, most useful to discern broad market trends. They can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Values vary widely across submarkets within the county.
Marin County Median Condo Prices
Marin County Market
MedianHouseSalesPrices& High Sales, $5 Million+*
Belvedere
Stinson Beach
12 months sales through mid-December 2025
Larkspur
Mill
Sausalito
Greenbrae
Bolinas
Corte Madera
San Anselmo
Central San Rafael
Inverness
Dillon Beach
N. San Rafael
Novato
Fairfax
San Geronimo Vly
$5,800,000
$5,315,000
$3,600,000
$3,400,000
$2,900,000
$2,575,000
$2,293,500
$2,275,000
$2,200,000
$1,825,000
$1,825,000
$1,807,500
$1,467,500
$1,460,000
$1,400,000
$1,380,000
$1,250,000
$1,155,000
$1,055,000
Price Sale: $15,000,000
Price Sale: $14,500,000
Price Sale: $13,217,000 High Price Sale: $15,700,000 High Price Sale: $13,000,000 High Price Sale: $5,625,000
Median house price in the Bay Area is approx.
$11,500,000
Price Sale: $7,500,000
$5,100,000
$1,300,000.
Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that typically disguises a huge range of prices in the underlying sales. It can be affected by a variety of factors, including location, of median home size, lot size, quality construction, amenities, views, parking and so on.
This chart applies to HOUSE sales. The median condo sales price was $690,000, and the median townhouse price was $850,000. The majority of condo and townhouse sales were in San Rafael and Novato.
Markets with lower sales volumes often see more fluctuation in their median sales prices.
As is the normal seasonal trend, the number of listings for sale on January 1st fell to its annual low count. Inventory will now start to rapidly increase.
The quantity of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the number of new listings coming on market, 2) how quickly buyers put them into contract, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling homes off the market without selling.
* Active/Coming-Soon
0 500 3,500 3,000 2,500 1,500 1,000 2,000
Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month, i.e., they are a lagging indicator of market conditions. Sales volume typically hits it annual low in January, reflecting the holiday market slowdown in December and early January.
Marin County Annual Sales Volume
Number of Home Sales by Year, since 2005*
Annual Sales Sales volume is affected byboth buyerdemandand the number of listings availabletopurchase,whicharedeeply impacted by positiveand negative economicconditions.
number of sales in 2025 rose about 5% from 2024.
*All attached and detached residential home sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance per Infosparks calculations. Data from sources deemed
500 4,000 3,500 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000
3,000
Number of Luxury Home Sales by Year, since 2005*
Sales: $5 Million+
Sales: $10 Million+
Sales of higher-price homes are affected by buyer demand, the number of listings available to purchase, and appreciation trends –all of which are impacted by economic and demographic conditions. As appreciation occurs over time, homes that would have sold for under $5 million, then sell for over that price threshold (and vice versa if prices fall).
The number of $5 million+ home sales in 2025 was unchanged year over year, though $10 million+ sales rebounded.
*All attached and detached residential home sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance per Infosparks calculations. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, with last year’s total estimated based on available data in early January and may change due to late-reported sales. Not all luxury home sales are reported to MLS.
Marin County Residential Market
2025 Home Sales by Price Segment*
$5,000,000 - $7,499,999
$4,000,000 - $4,999,999
$3,000,000 - $3,999,999
$2,000,000 – $2,999,999
Condo 15%
Townhouse 6%
There were 17 reported sales of $10 million+.
The great majority of sales were under $1,000,000 condos and townhouses. $7,500,000 +
$1,500,000 - $1,999,999
$1,000,000 - $1,499,999
46% of home sales were in Novato & San Rafael, the county’s 2 largest markets.
Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers
Absorption rate is the comparison of buyer demand vs. the supply of homes for sale: The higher the percentage, the more heated and competitive the market.
Marin
This statistic is an indicator of the strength of buyer demand vs. the supply of homes for sale, measuring – for homes sold – the average time between a listing coming on market and offer acceptance.
The market typi call y sees substantial seasonal
variations in this metric, which do not appear in this annual trend chart. Generally speaking, more expensive homes usually take substantially longer to sell than more affordable homes.
Marin County – Overbidding Asking Price
Generally speaking, the stronger the demand as compared to the supply of homes for sale, the more buyers compete to win the sale by overbidding asking price. Expensive homes typically see less overbidding than more affordable homes.
*Sales over final list price: All attached and detached residential home sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance per Infosparks calculations. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change due to late- reported sales. Not all sales are reported to MLS.
Marin County: Overbidding & Underbidding
100% = an average sales price at the original asking price; 105% = an average sales price 5% above asking; 95% = an average sales price 5% below asking.
*The ratio of sales price to the original list price: All attached and detached residential home sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance per Infosparks calculations. Percentages rounded. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change due to late-reported sales. Not all sales are reported to MLS.
Annual Number of Price Reductions
Bay Area Median House Values by County
2025 Sales By Bedroom/Bath Count*
County
In alphabeticalorder
4 Bedroom, 3 Bath Houses
$1,626,500
$1,075,000
$2,850,000
$1,675,000
$2,622,500
$2,210,000
$1,550,000 $700,500
$920,000
More expensive Marin: Ross/Kentfield & South.
More affordable Marin: San Anselmo/San Rafael & North
5+ Bedroom, 4+ Bath Houses, 3000+ sq.ft.
$739/sq.ft.
$478/sq.ft.
$1118/sq.ft.
$664/sq.ft. $6,050,000
$1103/sq.ft.
$1023/sq.ft.
$677/sq.ft.
$317/sq.ft.
$423/sq.ft.
*Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance in 2025 through mid-December 2025. Counties contain submarkets of widely varying values. “Fixer-uppers” excluded. Median values fluctuate for reasons besides changes in fair market value. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain
and
$1375/sq.ft.
Bay Area Median House Values by County
2025 Sales By Bedroom/Bath Count*
County
In alphabeticalorder
2 Bedroom, 1-2 Bath Houses
$785,000
$575,000
$1,480,500
$561/sq.ft.
More expensive Marin: Ross/Kentfield & South.
More affordable Marin: San Anselmo/San Rafael & North
Solano County
Sonoma County
3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Houses
$784/sq.ft.
$1131/sq.ft.
$892/sq.ft.
$775/sq.ft.
$1083/sq.ft.
$1292/sq.ft.
$1197/sq.ft.
$792/sq.ft.
$350/sq.ft.
$577/sq.ft.
*Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance in 2025 through mid-December 2025. Counties contain submarkets of widely varying values. “Fixer-uppers” excluded. Median values fluctuate for reasons besides changes in fair market value. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Numbers approximate, and data constantly changes as new sales occur. Not all sales are reported to MLS.
$1005/sq.ft.
$1153/sq.ft.
$1249/sq.ft.
$758/sq.ft.
Bay Area Median Condo & Townhouse Values
2025 Sales By Property Type & Bedroom/Bath Count*
More expensive Marin: Ross/Kentfield & South.
More affordable Marin: San Anselmo/San Rafael & North
*Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance in 2025 through mid-December 2025. Counties contain submarkets of widely varying values. “Fixer-uppers” excluded. Median values fluctuate for reasons besides changes in fair market value. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Numbers approximate, and data constantly changes as new sales occur. Not all sales are reported to MLS.
Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities,
views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.
Photo use under the Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
