Shrugging Off War, Buyer Demand Continues to Strengthen Moving Deeper into Spring
Despite significant negative economic effects from the Iran war – rising interest rates; volatile financial markets; soaring oil and gas prices; and fears of increased inflation –Bay Area real estate markets saw relatively little impact in March. What effects that occurred typically landed more heavily on less expensive markets more sensitive to interest rate increases. It is also possible that some sellers may have delayed listing their homes as they waited for more clarity regarding economic conditions. But so far, there has been no reaction comparable to what occurred last year with the tariff shock, and as of April 8th , virtually all economic indicators were turning in positive directions with the cease fire announcement.
Moving into spring, the number of listings going into contact climbed significantly month over month, which is the usual seasonal trend, and was steady year over yearbut the number of listings fell substantially from March 2025. As buyers competed for a greatly reduced supply of homes for sale, the Q1 median house sales price jumped; absorption rates and overbidding increased; price reductions fell; and listings went into contract faster.
As has been the case for the last 2 years, affluent markets remained more heated than less expensive markets, and house markets considerably stronger than condo markets.
Report created in good faith using data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last period figures are preliminary estimates based on data available early in the following month. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported activity.
Lamorinda & Diablo Valley Home Sales
12 Months House Sales by Community*
This chart pertains to house sales. There were also 899 condo and co-op sales (50% in Rossmoor), and 431 townhouse and duet sales in the period.
*12 months sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by mid-March 2026. Data based upon sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales. Not all sales are reported to MLS. Danville & Blackhawk refer to MLS areas.
Lamorinda & Diablo Valley Home Prices
Median House Sales Prices & Highest Sales*
Rossmoor Pleasant Hill Walnut Creek San Ramon Moraga Orinda Lafayette Danville Blackhawk Alamo Diablo
$1,900,000 $2,008,000 $2,020,000 $2,395,000 $2,467,500 $3,350,000
$566,000 $1,135,000 $1,518,000 $1,750,700 $1,815,000
High Price Sale: $11,250,000
High Price Sale: $7,625,000
High Price Sale: $5,000,000
12 months sales through mid-March 2026*
Price Sale: $3,400,000
High Price Sale: $7,175,000 High Price Sale: $18,000,000 High Price Sale: $7,900,000 High Price Sale: $4,150,000
Price Sale: $3,600,000
Price Sale: $2,255,000
Price Sale: $2,675,000
Median house sales price in the Bay Area is approx. $1,300,000.
This chart applies to HOUSE sales (except for Rossmoor). The regional median condo/co-op sales price was $590,000, and the median townhouse price was $960,000.
Lamorinda & Diablo Valley Home Values
Median House Dollar per Square Foot Value, 12 Months Sales*
Orinda Moraga Danville Alamo Lafayette Diablo
$858
per square foot
$797 $837 $853
$789
$783
Walnut Creek San Ramon
$746 $746
Rossmoor Pleasant Hill Blackhawk
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon interior living space and doesn’t include garages, attics, basements, rooms built without permit, decks, patios or lot size (though all those can add value). All things being equal, a smaller home will typically sell for a higher dollar per square foot value.
This chart applies to HOUSE sales (except for Rossmoor). The regional median condo/co-op $/sq.ft. value was $524, and the median townhouse $/sq.ft. value was $601.
$675 $737
$477
Rossmoor median CONDO/CO-OP $/sq.ft. value
Lamorinda & Diablo Valley Home Sizes
Median House Square Footage, 12 Months Sales*
Square footage calculations are based upon interior living space and don’t include garages, attics, basements, decks, patios or lot size.
This chart applies to HOUSE sales (except for Rossmoor). The regional median condo/co-op size was 1141 sq.ft., and the median townhouse size was 1555 sq.ft.
Median house size in the Bay Area is approx. 1800 sq.ft.
Lamorinda Residential Market
2026 YTD Home Sales by Price Segment*
$3,000,000 - $3,999,999 $4,000,000+
Lafayette, Moraga & Orinda
of sales under $1,000,000 were condos and townhouses.
*Sales and listings pending sale reported to NorCal MLS Alliance by 3/31/26. Not all sales are reported to MLS. Listings pending sale may not close, and pending-sale list prices may not reflect final closing prices. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. Percentages rounded and may not add up to 100%.
Lamorinda House Values
House Median Sales Prices by Quarter
$1,800,000
Because of the relatively low sales volumes in the region, its median sales price is more prone to anomalous fluctuations.
Lamorinda refers to the communities of Lafayette, Moraga/Canyon and Orinda. Q2 2022 Peak
The Q1 2026 median house sales price soared from Q4 2025, which is not unusual, and rose 6.5% year over year.
$1,600,000
$1,400,000
Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that can be affected by a number of factors besides changes in fair market value. It’s not unusual for median prices to peak in Q2, though that did not occur in 2025. Pandemic hits
Appreciation is typically measured year over year to account for market seasonality. The median size of homes sold can vary significantly between periods.
$1,200,000
$1,000,000
EastBayMLS data per Broker Metrics deemed reliable but may contain errors and is subject to revision. Many factors besides changes in fair market value can affect median sales prices. All numbers approximate, and last period reading may change with late-reported sales.
Lamorinda House Values by Quarter
Average Dollar per Square Foot Values
Dollar per Square Foot is calculated on interior living space and doesn’t include garages, attics, basements, rooms built without permit, decks, patios or lot size (though all these can add value).
These values reflect the combined dollar per square foot values for the entire region. Seasonal factors often play a role in quarterly values.
Note: Median sales prices and $/sq.ft. values can be affected differently by different factors (such as changes in median home size).
Lamorinda refers to the communities of Lafayette, Moraga and Orinda.
New Listings Coming on Market
Lamorinda Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Lafayette, Moraga/Canyon, Orinda
Lamorinda Homes Market
As of 4/1/26, the number of listings was slowly climbing, but 27% lower year over year. Listing inventory will almost certainly continue to rise through summer or fall.*
Lafayette, Moraga and Orinda
The quantity of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the number of new listings coming on market, 2) how quickly buyers put them into contract, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling their homes off market without selling. Updated April 1, 2026
* Active/Coming-Soon listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all listings are posted to MLS. All numbers approximate. The number of active listings constantly changes.
Homes for Sale in Lamorinda
Lafayette, Moraga & Orinda
Lamorinda Market Dynamics & Seasonality*
The number of homes going into contract in March 2026 surged higher from February but was essentially unchanged year over year.
through March 2026
Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers
Lamorinda: Absorption Rate by Month
May 2021 March 2022
| Historic lows in interest rates |
| Pandemic hits
May 2023
Absorption rate is the comparison of buyer demand vs. the supply of homes for sale: The higher the percentage, the more heated and competitive the market.
Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda March 2024
| Interest rate changes impact the market
Feb. 2025 Tariff shock
Updated through March 2026
*EastBayMLS reported data for houses, condos and townhouses, per Broker Metrics. Last month’s data estimated using available data, may change with late reported activity. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda
Because it is a relatively small market, Lamorinda is more prone to fluctuation in its monthly statistics.
Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month. Sales volume in March 2026 continued to rise moving into spring.
Updated through March 2026
Lamorinda: Luxury Home Sales by Month
Homes Selling for $3 Million+
2022
Lafayette, Moraga/Canyon, Orinda
Closed sales mostly reflect accepted-offer activity in the previous month. The luxury home market typically ebbs and flows by season, hitting its nadir in mid-winter and its peak in spring.
Due to its relatively low number of sales, Lamorinda is more prone to fluctuation in its monthly statistics.
Overbidding List Prices in Lamorinda
Percentage of Home Sales Closing over List Price, since 2020
Lafayette, Moraga/Canyon & Orinda
Higher overbidding percentages signify more buyer competition for new listings. The percentage is usually at its lowest in mid-winter, and its highest in spring. 38% of sales sold over list price in March 2026.
through March 2026
Infosparks.
Lamorinda Market Dynamics & Seasonality: Over/Under Bidding
This statistic typically ebbs and flows per seasonal demand trends. It is a lagging indicator of market activity 3-6 weeks earlier.
Pandemic hits
Lafayette, Moraga/Canyon and Orinda
100% = an average sales price at original list price. 110% = an average sales price 10% over asking price; 98% = 2% below asking price. April
In March 2026, the average home sale sold about 2% above asking price, hitting its highest reading since spring 2025.
Updated through March 2026
Average Days on Market: Speed of Sale
Lamorinda: Market Dynamics & Seasonality
A measurement of how quickly the listings which sell go into contract. This statistic typically ebbs and flows per seasonal demand trends and is a lagging indicator of market activity 3 to 6 weeks earlier.
Jan. 2022
Pandemic Year 1
Homes typically sell fastest in spring as buyers respond to the rush of new listings. In midwinter, sales are dominated by listings that have been on the market for longer periods of time.
The average home sale went into contract in 27 days in March 2026, essentially unchanged year over year.
Lafayette, Moraga and Orinda
Updated through March 2026
Large sample of sales of houses, condos, townhouses reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks, or to EastBayMLS per Broker Metrics. Data derived from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
Price Reductions on Active Listings
Contra Costa County Market Dynamics & Seasonality
July 2022
The number of price reductions typically ebbs and flows by season but can also be affected by specific events in the economy and the market.
The number of county price reductions in March 2026 fell 20% year over year. June 2025
July 2024
Oct. 2023
Aug. 2021
Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/,
Updated through March 2026
Selected Economic & Demographic Data
Contra Costa County Population Trends since 2010
U.S. Census Estimates, July 1st to July 1st
Changes measured from July 1st of previous year to July 1st of labeled year. Population changes are driven by domestic and foreign migration into and out of the county, and by natural causes, i.e. births less deaths.
1,052,540 1,065,440 1,077,548 1,093,401 1,108,876 1,124,405
Pandemic hits ▲
2024 to 2025, the county saw negative domestic migration (-6721), positive foreign migration (+4331), and more births than deaths (+2868). In California, net foreign immigration plunged approximately 65% in the last 12-month period and is expected to decline further in the period underway.
Contra Costa since the pandemic struck: -44,619 in net domestic migration, +32,655 in net foreign migration, and +14,796 in natural change.
Estimates as of July 1 of each year. 2020-2025 data published March 26, 2026, by U.S. Census. The Census often revises numbers in subsequent estimates. All numbers to be considered approximate. Census numbers may not total perfectly due to “Population change that cannot be attributed to any specific demographic component.”
1,000,000 1,025,000 1,050,000 1,075,000 1,100,000 1,125,000 1,150,000 1,175,000
Mortgage Interest Rates, August 2022 to 2026 YTD
30-Year Conforming Fixed-Rate Loans, Weekly Average Readings*
Rates vary widely according to the property, price, borrower and lender.
Per Freddie Mac (FHLMC), on April 2, 2026, the weekly average, 30-year, conforming-loan interest rate rose to 6.46%, up from 5.98% before the Iran war began. The cease fire announced on 4/7/26 may exert downward pressure on interest rates.* Jan. 2026
war begins↑
*Freddie Mac (FHLMC), 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Weekly Average: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
Financial Markets,
2025 – 2026 YTD
Percentage Increases in S&P 500 & Nasdaq since 1/2/25
Nasdaq Index: % Change since 01/25
S&P 500 Index: % Change since 01/25
Tariff shock ►
Updated mid-day 4/8/26
Large changes in stock markets can dramatically affect household wealth, consumer confidence and housing markets, especially more affluent markets. Iran war begins ↑
Cease fire announced ↑
Data per MarketWatch.com, https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/comp/downloaddata and https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/download-data. Data from source deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Financial market values change constantly and all numbers to be considered approximate.
Crude Oil, Price per Barrel
Since February 2, 2026*
Dramatic ups and downs in oil prices can have considerable effects on manufacturer & consumer prices, transportation costs, inflation, consumer confidence and financial markets. Prices have often been volatile even on an intra-day basis as events, predictions, threats and announcements change.
| Iran war begins
Updated mid-day April 8, 2026
Cease fire announced |
*Per Yahoo! Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF/history/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers should be considered approximate.
Any impact of the Iran war ceasefire has not yet shown up in gas prices.
Updated mid-day 4/8/26
* U.S. Energy Information Administration, US Regular All Formulations Gas Price: Weighted average based on sampling of approximately 900 retail outlets. Not seasonally adjusted. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW and daily updates per https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors.
Economic Policy Uncertainty Index*
By Month since January 2000
The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reading has plummeted since the April 2025 tariff shock but rebounded higher in 2026 to a level very high by longterm standards. Still, the increase since the Iran war began has been muted.
The Economic Uncertainty Index is constructed from data analysis of 1) an index of search results from 10 large newspapers for terms related to economic and policy uncertainty, 2) reports by the Congressional Budget Office, and 3) the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters.*
Dotcom crash & 9/11
Tariff shock ►
Subprime crash & great recession
*Source: 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty' by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, 3component index, www.PolicyUncertainty.com, https://www.policyuncertainty.com/us_monthly.html.
Federal Funds Interest Rate since 1981
& Economic Interventions by Federal Reserve Bank*
Updated March 18, 2026
◄ Early 1980’s: Fed aggressively raises fed funds target rate to lower inflation rate
In September 2024, the Fed reduced the rate by a half point, and then by a quarter point in November and December. In September, October and December 2025, the rate was reduced by a quarter point each time. There were no changes in January or February 2026. Additional adjustments in 2026 are a topic of much discussion and uncertainty. Early 1990’s recession: Fed drops target interest rate 18 times, 1990-92
Dotcom crash, 9/11 attack: Fed drops fed fund rate 12 times, 2001-02
Junk bond boom
Dotcom boom
2022/2023: Acting to counter inflation, Fed increases target rate 11 times, then pauses 8/2023 – 8/2024
Subprime crash: Fed drops rate 10 times to effectively zero in 2007-08
2019, 2020, 2021: With the pandemic, the Fed drops the rate to effectively zero
High-tech & pandemic booms
Subprime boom
* Per Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and New York; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS; Last reading per https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr. Other data referenced from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.
Photo use under the Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.