Lamorinda refers to the communities of Lafayette, Moraga/Canyon and Orinda, but this report will sometimes use county data for greater context.
March 2026 Report with market data through February
The Market Accelerates
Moving into spring, rising buyer demand vs. an inadequate supply of homes for sale is creating a rapidly heating market characterized by increasing buyer competition, faster sales and more overbidding of asking price. The upcoming months are typically the most active of the year and on current trends, conditions are expected to generate continuing upward pressure on home values. Median home sales prices often hit their calendar-year highs in spring, due to the severe imbalance between supply and demand, as well as a seasonal surge in luxury home sales. As was the case last year, more affluent buyers continue to play an outsized role in demand and home-price appreciation. The wild card in coming months is what sustained effects, if any, the Iran war may have on inflation, interest rates, financial markets and consumer confidence. There may be no significant impact on housing, unlike the tariff shock which caused an abrupt slowdown in last year’s spring market.
Report created in good faith using data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last period figures are preliminary estimates based on data available early in the following month. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported activity.
Mortgage Interest Rates, August 2022 to 2026 YTD
30-Year Conforming Fixed-Rate Loans, Weekly Average Readings*
Rates vary widely according to the property, price, borrower and lender.
Per Freddie Mac (FHLMC), on March 5, 2026, the weeklyaverage, 30-year,conforming-loaninterest rate, illustrated on this chart, was 6%, essentially unchanged from the previous week. (However, as of 3/6/26, the daily average rate has risen to 6.14%, increasing 15 basis points since the Iran war began.)*
3/30/23
*Freddie Mac (FHLMC), 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Weekly Average: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
Crude Oil, Price per Barrel
Since February 2, 2026*
Dramatic ups and downs in oil prices, if sustained, can have considerable effects on consumer prices, transportation costs, inflation, consumer confidence and financial markets.
*Per Yahoo! Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF/history/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers should be considered approximate.
Updated through March 6, 2026
Iran war begins
Financial Markets, 2025 – 2026
YTD
Percentage Increases in S&P 500 & Nasdaq since 1/2/25
Nasdaq Index: % Change since 01/25
S&P 500 Index: % Change since 01/25
Large changes in stock markets can dramatically affect household wealth, consumer confidence and housing markets, especially more affluent markets.
Data per MarketWatch.com, https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/comp/downloaddata and https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/download-data. Data from source deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Financial market values change constantly and all numbers to be considered approximate.
3-Month Rolling Median House Sales Prices*
Moraga/Canyon, Orinda
The 3-month-rolling median house sales price in February 2026 jumped 11% year over year.
Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic, disguising an enormous range of sales prices in the underlying sales. It is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, which explain many of the regular ups and downs in this chart.
Important: Due to low sales volumes, Lamorinda can be prone to dramatic fluctuations in its median sales price .
Appreciation is typically measured year over year to account for market seasonality.
*3-month rolling median house sales prices reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks, large sample of regional sales. Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
3-MonthRollingMedianDollarperSquare Foot Values*
Lafayette, Moraga/Canyon, Orinda
Median $/sq.ft. value is a very general statistic, disguising an enormous range of values in the underlying sales. It is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, which explain many of the regular ups and downs in this chart. Longer-term trends are much more meaningful than short-term changes.
Median sales prices and median $/sq.ft. values don’t always move in lockstep, since factors such as the median size of homes sold can affect them differently.
house
Analysis may contain
Median House Sales Prices: 3-Bedroom & 4-Bedroom Homes by Bay Area County, 12 Months Sales*
LamorindareferstoLafayette,Moraga & Orinda
San Mateo
Santa Clara
$2,400,000
$1,830,000
$2,160,000
$1,880,000
San Francisco
Marin
$2,091,000
$1,580,000
$1,787,500
$1,325,000
$1,775,000
$1,457,500
$1,550,000
$1,175,000
Napa
Contra Costa (all)
Sonoma Solano
$1,107,500
$875,000
$971,500
$780,000
$857,500
$785,000
$680,000
$565,000
Median House Sales Prices
4BR/3BA, 2000 - 2300 Sq.Ft. House
3BR/2BA, 1400 - 1750 Sq.Ft. House
Median price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that typically disguises an enormous range of sales prices in the individual underlying sales. Counties and regions contain submarkets of widely different values. How these prices apply to any particular home is unknown without a comparative market analysis.
Lamorinda
Alameda
Median House Dollar per Square Foot Values
Santa Clara San Mateo
$1,209
$1,009
$1,155
$1,132
$981
$951
$925
$848
$865
$810
$758
$730
Santa Cruz
San Francisco Lamorinda Marin Alameda Napa Sonoma
Contra Costa (all) Solano
$743
$644
$558
$528
$509
$404
$501
$451
$362
$317
by Bay Area County, 12 Months Sales* Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance in the 12 months through 2/28/26. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all sales are reported to MLS. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
Lamorinda refers to Lafayette, Moraga & Orinda
Median House $/Sq.Ft. Values
3BR/2BA, 1400 - 1750 Sq.Ft. House
4BR/3BA, 2000 - 2300 Sq.Ft. House
$/sq.ft. is based upon interior living space and doesn’t include garages, attics, basements, rooms built without permit, decks or lot size. All things being equal, a smaller home will typically sell for a higher $/sq.ft. value.
Counties and regions contain submarkets of widely different values. How these values apply to any particular home is unknown without a comparative market analysis.
Overbidding List Prices in Lamorinda
Higher overbidding percentages signify more buyer competition for new listings. The percentage is usually at its lowest in mid-winter, and its highest in spring. As demand rebounded, 45% of sales sold over list price in February 2026.
Tariff shock
Average Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage
This statistic typically ebbs and flows per seasonal demand trends. It is a lagging indicator of market activity 3-6 weeks earlier.
Lafayette, Moraga/Canyon and Orinda
100% = an average sales price at original list price. 110% = an average sales price 10% over asking price; 98% = 2% below asking price. In February 2026, the average home sale sold about 1.5% above asking price, hitting its highest reading since spring 2025.
Average Days on Market: Speed of Sale
Lamorinda: Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Homes typically sell fastest in spring as buyers respond to the rush of new listings. In mid-winter, sales are dominated by listings that have been on the market for longer periods of time.
A measurement of how quickly the listings which sell go into contract. This statistic typically ebbs and flows per seasonal demand trends and is a lagging indicator of market activity 3 to 6 weeks earlier.
The average home sale went into contract in 28 days in February 2026, down 4 days year over year.
New Listings Coming on Market
Lamorinda Market Dynamics & Seasonality
The number of new listings coming on market ebbs and flows by seasonal trends. The number of new listings should rise rapidly in coming months, but the count in February 2026 was well down year over
Lamorinda Homes Market
Lafayette, Moraga and Orinda
As of 3/1/26, the number of listings was climbing, but substantially lower year over year. Listing inventory will almost certainly continue to rise through summer or fall.*
The quantity of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the number of new listings coming on market, 2) how quickly buyers put them into contract, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling their homes off market without selling.
* Active/Coming-Soon listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all listings are posted to MLS. All numbers approximate. The number of active listings constantly changes.
Lamorinda: Supply vs. Demand
The number of homes going into contract in February 2026 rose slightly from January, but market activity is being constrained by the
Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers
| Historic lows in interest rates | March
Pandemic
Absorption rate is the comparison of buyer demandvs.thesupplyof homes for sale: The
the
heated and
the
the market.
| Interest rate changes impact the market
*EastBayMLS reported data for houses, condos and townhouses, per Broker Metrics. Last month’s data estimated using available data, may change with late reported activity. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
Monthly Sales Volume – Longer-Term Trends
Lamorinda Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda
Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month. Sales volume in February 2026 rose higher from its annual low in January and was substantially higher year over year. Sales will almost certainly climb rapidly in coming months.
Because it is a relatively small market, Lamorinda is more prone to fluctuation in its monthly statistics.
Luxury Home Sales
Closed sales mostly reflect accepted-offer activity in the previous month. The luxury home market typically ebbs and flows by season, hitting its nadir in mid-winter and its peak in spring.
Price Reductions on Active Listings
The
Contra Costa County Market Dynamics & Seasonality
The number of county price reductions in February 2026 fell 9% year over year.
Selected Economic Data
VIX Volatility Index*
By Day in 2025
“The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, is a real-time market index representing the [stock] market’s expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days. Investors use the VIX to measure the level of risk, fear, or stress in the market when making investment decisions.” Quote from Investopedia
► On 3/6/26, the VIX Volatility Index hit its highest point since the tariff shock in April 2025.
Mar-25
*CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), per https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/vix_historical_data/ and/or Yahoo! Finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/history/. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers approximate.
The CAPE ratio is a stock market valuation measure created by economist Robert Shiller. It is defined as the current price of the S&P 500 divided by the moving-average of 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings and is principally used to assess likely future returns over longer periods. A higher CAPE ratio can suggest investors are expecting higher future growth, or that the stock market is overvalued.
As of early 2026, the CAPE ratio has been running at its highest readings since the dotcom bubble.
Economic Policy Uncertainty Index*
By Month since January 2000
The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reading has plummeted since the April 2025 tariff shock butreboundedhigher in JanuaryandFebruary2026 toa level very high by long-term standards. This chart pre-dates the start of the Iran war.
Tariff shock►
The Economic Uncertainty Index is constructed from data analysis of 1) an index of search results from 10 large newspapers for terms related to economic and policy uncertainty, 2) reports by the Congressional Budget Office, and 3) the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters.*
*Source: 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty' by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, 3component index, www.PolicyUncertainty.com, https://www.policyuncertainty.com/us_monthly.html.
U.S. Jobs Report*
MonthlyChangeinNumber of Jobs, in Thousands*
Note: BLS often revises its monthly estimates, sometimes very substantially.
*U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “All employees, thousands, total nonfarm, seasonally adjusted”: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output view=net 1mth. Last 2 readings are labeled “preliminary” and often substantially revised. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. Monthly Change in U.S. NonFarm Employment, in Thousands Employment trends and job security continue to be major concerns of consumers and economists.
Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities,
views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.
Photo use under the Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
