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Poland Real GDP growth is projected to slow to 0.9% in 2023 as high uncertainty, high inflation and tighter monetary policy weaken demand growth, before recovering to 2.1% in 2024. EU Recovery and Resilience funds are expected to boost investment, but further delays would entail lower growth. Inflation peaked earlier this year, but it is likely to remain elevated and above target by the end of 2024 as domestic inflationary pressure from robust labour markets and fiscal spending continues. Interest rates should be raised further to prevent persistently high inflation. Fiscal policy needs to be well calibrated to avoid adding inflationary pressure in the economy while ensuring fiscal support better targets vulnerable households. In the medium term, accelerated decarbonisation and digitalisation, supported by policies to improve skills, would boost energy security and lead to greener and stronger economic growth. The domestic economy has weakened amid high inflation and uncertainty Output grew by 5.4% in 2022 but quarterly growth was volatile, and the economy slowed considerably over the year, due to falling private consumption and slowing investment and inventory growth. While GDP rose by 3.8% in the first quarter of 2023 relative to the previous quarter, output levels were broadly flat compared to a year ago. Consumer and business confidence have improved somewhat, but they remain below levels seen before Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. Retail sales and industrial production point to continued weakness in output. Headline inflation peaked in February but is still high, at 13% in May, pushed up by food and energy. Core inflation remains elevated, at 12.2% in April.
Poland
1. Year-on-year percentage changes. 2. Consumer price index excluding food and energy. Source: OECD Economic Outlook 113 database; and OECD calculations. StatLink 2 https://stat.link/1r6pja
OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, VOLUME 2023 ISSUE 1: PRELIMINARY VERSION © OECD 2023