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Web: oe.cd/mexico
The recovery is underway Real GDP Index 2019Q4 = 100 110
110 MEX
OECD
105
105
100
100
95
95
90
90
85
85
80
80
2020
Note: Shaded area represents a forecast. Source: OECD Economic Outlook 110 database.
2021
2022
2
Exports of the manufacturing sector have recovered quickly Manufacturing exports Index, 2013 = 100, s.a. 180
180
160
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60 40 20 0 2013
60
Total manufacturing
40
Automotive
20
Non-automotive manufacturing 2015
2017
2019
2021
0
Source: INEGI. 3
Inflation has picked up Y-o-y % changes 8 7
8 Headline inflation
Core inflation
Inflation expectations
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0 2015
2016
2017
Note: Shaded area represents the central bank target range. Source: Banxico.
2018
2019
2020
2021
0 2022
4
Maintaining fiscal sustainability
5
Public debt is expected to stabilise Public debt % of GDP 90 80
Current policies
Downside risk scenario
90
Growth enhancing scenario
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10 2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
10 2050
Note: In the current policies scenario real GDP growth and inflation follow OECD projections until 2023 and then gradually converge towards potential output growth and the inflation target rate of 3%; the exchange rate between the Mexican peso and US dollar is kept constant. The interest rate yields is assumed to shift vertically following changes in inflation. The government primary balance follows forecasts from the Secretaría de Hacienda. The downside risk scenario assumes a one-off shock of 10% to the exchange rate with the US dollar and a permanent upward vertical shift of 100 basis points in the yield curve, with respect to the current policies scenario. In the growth enhancing scenario a higher GDP growth is assumed over the period 2022-2031 under the hypothesis that structural reforms were implemented. All scenarios include aging costs. Source: OECD calculations. Data prior to 2020 are from SHCP and refer to central government debt.
6
Public spending is low Public expenditure % of GDP, 2020 70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
KOR IRL CHL MEX COL TUR CHE LAC ARG NZL BRA AUS USA ISR JPN NLD OECD LUX PRT ISL GBR DEU ESP CAN SWE DNK FIN ITA AUT NOR GRC BEL FRA
70
Note: LAC is an unweighted average of Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Argentina and Brazil. OECD is an unweighted average. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2021.
7
There is room to boost tax revenues Tax revenues % of GDP, 2019 50
45
45
40
40
35
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
MEX COL CHL IRL TUR CRI USA LAC KOR CHE AUS ARG ISR JPN NZL GBR BRA OECD CAN PRT ESP CZE POL HUN DEU NLD GRC NOR FIN ITA AUT BEL SWE FRA DNK
50
Note: LAC refers to Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Argentina and Brazil. All averages are unweighted. It includes taxes on income and capital gains, taxes on goods and service, social security contributions, payroll taxes and property taxes. Source: OECD Revenue Statistics database.
8
The property tax is underused Property taxes % of GDP, 2019 or latest year 2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
MEX
CRI
CHL
LAC
COL
OECD
Note: LAC is an unweighted average of Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Argentina and Brazil. OECD is an unweighted average of all member countries with available data. Source: OECD Global Revenue Statistics database.
0.0
9
Restarting investment and boosting productivity
10
The economy has underperformed Index of real PPP-adjusted GDP per capita, 2000 = 100 225
225 MEX
CHL
Dynamic Asia
CRI
200
200
175
175
150
150
125
125
100
100
75 2000
2005
2010
Note: Dynamic Asia includes India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. Source: World Bank World Development Indicators.
2015
2020
75
11
Investment has been weak Gross fixed capital formation Index, 2015Q1 = 100 140
140 MEX
130
OECD
130
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60 2015
2016
Source: OECD Economic Outlook database.
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
60
12
Productivity is low Labour productivity 1000s of PPP-adjusted USD per capita, 2020 or latest year 60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
Note: OECD is an unweighted average of all OECD member countries with available data. Source: OECD Productivity database. 13
Informality is high % of informal employment in total employment 2020 or latest year 70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
CHL
TUR
CRI
ARG
BRA
MEX
COL
0
Note: Data for Costa Rica and Chile excludes own-use production workers and data for Argentina includes only main cities or metropolitan areas. Source: ILO. 14
Boosting opportunities for all
15
Educational inequalities can be reduced Mean score in reading, math and science in PISA, 2018 550
550
500
500
450
450
400
400
350
350
300
300
MEX (25th)
COL
CRI
MEX
CHL
MEX (75th)
OECD
PRT
USA
CZE
POL
CAN
Note: MEX (25th) refers to the score at which 25% of students scored lower; similarly, MEX (75th) refers to the score at which 75% of students scored lower. Source: OECD PISA 2018.
16
Women’s labour market participation should increase % of female population aged 15-64, 2020 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20
0
TUR MEX CHL ITA CRI BRA COL KOR GRC POL BEL HUN IRL SVK FRA ISR USA ESP LUX OECD CZE PRT SVN AUT JPN AUS CAN GBR LVA DEU NOR DNK NZL FIN EST NLD LTU CHE SWE ISL
10
Source: OECD Labour Force Statistics. 17
There is room to raise access to finance % aged over 15 with account at financial institution, 2017 100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
PER
COL
MEX
PRY
ARG
URY
CRI
BRA
Notes: Data for Mexico refer to 2018 and to adult population between 18 and 79 years of age. Source: World Bank Global Findex database; Comisión Nacional Valores y Bolsa.
CHL
USA
FRA
GBR
0
18
Access to fixed broadband lags behind Fixed broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants, by speed tiers June 2019 60
60 <100 Mbps
≥ 100 Mbps
Breakdown not available 50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
COL MEX TUR CHL POL LVA LTU SVK ITA AUT IRL CZE OECD FIN JPN EST ESP USA AUS PRT GRC CAN SWE GBR DEU KOR NOR NLD DNK FRA CHE
50
Notes: Mbps = megabits per second. Source: OECD Broadband Portal (database).
19
There is scope to increase renewables Share of renewable energy in total energy supply, % 14
14 MEX
OECD
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0 2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Note: OECD is an unweighted average of all OECD member countries with available data. Source: OECD Green Growth Indicators.
2014
2016
2018
0 2020
20
For more information
www.oecd.org/economy/mexico-economic-snapshot/ OECD Economics OECD Disclaimers: The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.
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