How to adapt fisheries to climate change? Issues note Climate change is one of the major issues facing the fisheries sector. Variations in ocean water temperatures and changes in currents and acidification as well as extreme weather events, have, and will increasingly have, significant impacts for fish stocks and the fishing industry in both the short and long term. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) forecasts that mean sea surface temperatures will increase by between 0.33°C and 1.29°C by 2050, relative to 1986-2005 averages under best- and worst-case emissions scenarios (RCP 2.6 and 8.5). Increasing sea surface temperature will lead to changes in where fish are found as well as their size, growth rates and survival, with global fisheries catches forecast to decrease by between 3.4% and 24.1% by the end of the century. The resulting geographical redistribution of fish stocks will be uneven. Higher latitude regions are expected to see an increase in catch potential, while tropical regions could see a decrease. Further, by 2030, almost one in four transboundary stocks are expected to move, shifting the balance of fish stocks across maritime borders. Different fisheries will thus be affected at different times and in different ways, complicating the work of fisheries managers and potentially undermining the resilience of the sector. While policy responses for specific fisheries will vary, generally, the measures needed to adapt align with fisheries management good practice – including scientific and regulatory measures to ensure healthy and resilient stocks; governance measures to ensure co-operation between different jurisdictions; and support, which could also be non-sectoral, to help fishers, fish industries and dependent communities adjust to changing circumstances. This note provided background material for the ‘Climate Change and Fisheries’ workshop, which was held back-to-back with the 132nd meeting of the OECD Fisheries Committee, on 21 November 2023. 1 The paper gives a brief overview of the expected impacts of climate change on fisheries, impacts that have already been observed in COFI Members and Partners, and the range of policy responses available to help fisheries adapt to these changes.
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The OECD Secretariat warmly thanks all presenters and workshop participants, as well as OECD colleagues from the Agriculture and Resources Policies Division (TAD/ARP) and the Climate, Biodiversity and Water Division (ENV/CBW), for their input and feedback in the preparation of this note. The programme of the workshop is provided at the end of this note for reference. This note does not necessarily represent the view of the OECD or that of its members.