OECD Economic Surveys OECD Economic Surveys FRANCE
France
Executive Summary
NCH N
U
IO
• Activity bounced back strongly after a deep recession • Ensuring a steady and inclusive recovery • Reforming public finance • Towards more inclusive and sustainable growth • Speeding-up the green transition
LA
November 2021 NOVEMBER 2021
VE S R
2 . OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF FRANCE – EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Key recommendations
Ensuring a strong and resilient recovery • Provide increasingly selective fiscal support as the economic recovery gains traction. • Ensure swift and effective implementation of the recovery plan. • Encourage the take-up of the new, simplified preventive procedures and strengthen the capacity of commercial courts. Strengthening the effectiveness of fiscal policy • Develop a strategy to stabilise and gradually lower the public debt ratio. • Publish long-term debt projections based on assumptions validated by the fiscal council. • Lower gradually and significantly public spending through a medium-term consolidation strategy based on spending reviews and improved expenditure allocation. • Implement a multiannual expenditure rule that encompasses the entire public sector. • Reduce tax expenditure, in particular those that do not benefit low-income households or measures that encourage excessive household saving. • Encourage a rise in the effective age of exit from the labour market, notably by increasing the minimum retirement age in line with life expectancy. Recalibrating the economy for greener growth • Make the eligibility criteria for the conversion premium and the ecological malus scale more stringent. • Make aid conditional on achieving a minimum energy efficiency standard and tighten controls on major projects. • Reallocate support to the agricultural sector towards payments for agri-environmental services. • Link economic incentives with measures to increase their social acceptability when needed. • Gradually withdraw exemptions and reduced rates on environmental taxes. • Prioritise the progressive alignment of carbon prices across sectors while resuming the gradual upward trend of the carbon component of energy taxes. Boosting employment and productivity • Reform the financing of job seekers’s support to ensure it is in line with economic conditions. • Ensure that measures to expand the youth guarantee scheme combine a financial allowance for those who needs it, support to enter the labour market and streamlined procedures. • Increase the share of work-based training for apprentices. • Provide financial support for training in digital technologies for small businesses. Enhancing equal access to opportunities • Speed up the development of additional childcare services for low-income households and in the poorest neighbourhoods. • Strengthen outreach and accessibility schemes by implementing a quantitative follow-up of local access to public services. • Refocus housing supply subsidies on the most densely populated areas.
OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF FRANCE – EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . 3
Activity bounced back strongly after a deep recession Economic policies reacted swiftly and strongly to the crisis, and activity has rebounded quickly. The recession associated with the pandemic was severe. From March 2020 to end-June 2021, sanitary restrictions tightly constrained economic activity, although their impact gradually declined, leading to a steep rebound (Figure 1). Strong public support measures limited the economic and social shock. Since 2020, the short-time work scheme has protected employment and household incomes. The solidarity fund, tax deferrals, and state-backed loans have supported corporate liquidity and profitability, reducing bankruptcies. Direct fiscal support for economic activity reached 3.1% of GDP in 2020 and 4.1% in 2021. In a welcome move, the measures are becoming more selective as the recovery gains traction, and the EUR 100 billion recovery plan and the 2030 investment plan rightly focus on environmental and digital transitions.
Table 1. Domestic demand drives the recovery
Domestic demand is driving the recovery (Table 1). With the economy reopening, domestic demand and employment bounced back rapidly in 2021. The emergency measures and the recovery plan, combined with accommodative monetary policy, are adding support to consumption and investment. In 2022, the gradual reduction of savings accumulated during the crisis is set to sustain consumption, while exports and investment should benefit from improving external demand.
Consumer price index Public deficit (% of GDP)
Risks remain high. Demand for some services and transport equipment depends on the health situation. The negative risks associated with private debt have also increased for some businesses and households. However, growth could surprise on the upside if household confidence improved more rapidly than expected and encouraged a greater reduction in accumulated savings. Figure 1. The economic contraction was severe Real GDP, index 2015Q1 = 100
120
Italy Germany
115
FRANCE OECD
110 105 100 95 90 85
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Source: OECD, Economic Outlook and updates
2021
2022
2020
2021
2022
Gross domestic product (GDP) Private consumption
-8.2
5.8
4.0
-7.3
4.4
6.5
Public consumption Gross fixed capital formation Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Unemployment
-3.0
4.4
0.3
-10.4
9.8
2.0
-16.6
9.4
8.2
-12.0
7.6
7.9
8.0
8.8
8.7
0.5
1.4
0.8
-9.3
-8.4
-4.8
116.3
117.6
116.0
Gross debt (Maastricht definition, % of GDP)
Source: OECD, Economic Outlook and updates
4 . OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF FRANCE – EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
INTRODUCTION . 5
Ensuring a steady and inclusive recovery The marked and impressive acceleration of the vaccination campaign will support a steady recovery. Yet, poor municipalities and the eldery have still comparatively low vaccination rates and efforts to reach the most exposed and vulnerable should be strengthened. Ensuring a swift and effective implementation of the recovery plan should allow the economic rebound to turn into durable growth. For the same reason, a premature withdrawal of support for households and businesses should be avoided as it could push viable businesses into bankruptcy. However, fiscal support needs to become increasingly selective as the recovery gains traction. High corporate debt and heterogeneous businesses’ conditions could eventually put some firms into difficulties. This calls for strengthening businesses’ equity, and ensuring early and swift resolution processes for non-viable firms. Simplified preventive procedures introduced in 2021 will facilitate earlier and more effective restructuring. However, insolvency proceedings were lengthy before the crisis and strengthening the capacity of commercial courts would speed up the restructuring of distressed firms. Boosting training and job transition support is crucial. Despite a high unemployment rate, labour market shortages have risen. Recent reforms have improved access to professional training and its quality, but the crisis has delayed their implementation. The 2021 strategy for retraining workers is welcome. Yet, even before the crisis, the school-to-work transition was difficult (Figure 2). The foreseen expansion of the youth guarantee scheme will have to combine a financial allowance for those who need it, greater support to enter the labour market and streamlined procedures. At the same time, the financing of unemployment insurance and activation programmes appears pro-cyclical and measures should ensure that their financing is better in line with economic conditions.
Figure 2. Employment among young and older people is weak Employment by age, as a % of the population, 2019 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
France
1519
2024
2529
2534
Germany
3539
4044
4549
OECD
5054
5559
Source: OECD (2021), Labour Market Statistics (database)
6064
6569
OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF FRANCE – EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . 5
Reforming public finance Public debt has increased markedly during the crisis. Developing a strategy to stabilise and gradually lower public debt is necessary to put it on a sustainable path since ageing-related expenditures are expected to increase. Public spending is high (Figure 3) and some expenditures are not effective. Educational outcomes largely reflect the family environment and business innovation does not fully reflect high R&D support. Moreover, tax expenditures such as those on overtime, reduced rates of value-added tax or fossilfuel subsidies do not support long-term growth. It is necessary to lower gradually and significantly public spending through a medium-term consolidation strategy based on spending reviews and improved expenditure allocation. The pension system requires further reforms. The effective age of exit from the labour market is the second lowest of all OECD countries and has an adverse effect on potential growth. At the same time, life expectancy at age 65 is the second highest of the OECD. Increasing the minimum retirement age in line with life expectancy, and better integrating older workers into firms would encourage a rise in the effective age of exit from the labour market.
Figure 3. Public spending is high % of GDP, 2016-20 70
60
raise awareness around sustainability issues.
50 40 30 20
Source: OECD, Economic Outlook and updates
FRA
DNK
ITA
DEU
ESP
NLD
GBR
CAN
OECD
0
USA
10
JPN
The governance of public finance is fragmented across sectors and levels of government. It does not allow a full evaluation of some policies. A multiannual expenditure rule that encompasses the entire public sector, whose implementation would be assessed by the fiscal council (HCFP), would make for better coordination of sectoral expenditures. Additionally, the current debt projections are limited to 5 years and publishing long-term debt projections, whose assumptions would be validated by the HCFP, would
6. OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF FRANCE – EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
INTRODUCTION . 7
Towards more inclusive and sustainable growth Boosting employment and productivity is a priority. Welcome reforms have lowered labour costs and increased the in-work bonus for low-paid workers, while also improving the financing and targeting of education and vocational training. However, too many workers have inadequate skills and their employment rate remains low. The measures proposed in this Survey to improve employment and productivity further could increase GDP per capita by 1.2% after 10 years. Early and initial education are key to strengthen skills and equity. Limited school closures have helped to maintain learning outcomes during the crisis, but they have weighed more on less performant children. Disadvantaged households have also less access to formal childcare, which calls for speeding up the development of additional childcare services for low-income households and in the poorest neighbourhoods. Action must be taken to lower the risk of school dropouts, as well as to improve the relationships between business and the education system. Apprenticeship could be developed further, as planned in the reform of vocational education, by increasing the share of work-based training. The diffusion of digital technologies remains unequal, hindering productivity gains (Figure 4). Many small businesses lags behind the adoption of these new digital technologies and will require additional support for training their workers.
Figure 4. There is room to boost firms’ adoption of digital technologies % of businesses, 2020
Efforts to support vulnerable regions and households should be stepped up. The crisis risks widening social and territorial inequalities. Providing equitable access to essential services, notably through the “France Services” network, would require to strengthen outreach and accessibility schemes by implementing a quantitative follow-up of local access to public services. The short supply of housing in dynamic areas also prevents higher housing mobility, especially for young people. Focusing support for housing supply on very densely populated areas would raise mobility and employment opportunities.
60
% 80
% France
OECD
5 best
40 20 0
Training to develop ICT-related skills
Online sales
Cloud computing
Source: OECD (2021), ICT Access and Usage (database)
OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF FRANCE – EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . 7
Speeding-up the green transition Investment in the green transition should continue to reduce greenhouse gases and pollution. The pace of transition towards a greener economy must accelerate. Even though France is one of the lowest greenhouse-gas-emitting countries in the OECD, its emissions have fallen slowly. Artificial areas, transport demand and waste are steadily increasing. Intensive agriculture and the use of chemical inputs have reduced biodiversity and deteriorated air quality (Figure 5). The environmental transition is one of the main pillar of the recovery plan. It allocates EUR 30 billion (1.2% of 2019 GDP) to green investment. However, the transition will be successful only if the mechanisms that are put in place are effective. Green private investment must increase, and further incentives would boost households and businesses behavioural changes. Phasing-out tax breaks and reduced rates, and subsequently rising green tax rates, notably carbon prices, are needed. To prevent an increase in inequality and to promote the social acceptability of such measures, support should be provided to the most vulnerable households and businesses. In particular, developing generous and targeted help-to-buy schemes, for cleaner equipments, would effectively complement environmental taxes. Containing the growing demand for transport and the associated pollution should be a priority. The recent increase in electric car sales has not been sufficient to curb the rise in road transport emissions. Schemes to support the purchase of less polluting vehicles are not ambitious enough. The eligibility criteria for the conversion premium and the ecological malus scale should become more stringent. Improving the energy efficiency of buildings would reduce energy consumption. Emissions from buildings have barely evolved. Policies to support building energy renovation works do not encourage efficient overall energy renovations. Public support should be conditional on achieving a minimum energy efficiency standard and tight controls on major projects. Production of renewable energies must increase. France plans to reduce the share of nuclear power, which does not emit greenhouse gases. In order to comply with emissionreduction targets, renewable energies must be developed further, notably though higher support for renewable thermal energy.
Land use should take better into account the benefits of biodiversity. The environmental offset required for major development projects is not demanding enough. Land use taxes should also be reconsidered to encourage sustainable land use. In the agriculture sector, public support often comes without meaningful environmental condition. Reallocating agricultural support towards payments for agri-environmental services would encourage more sustainable practices. Figure 5. Biodiversity on farmland is falling Annual variation 2008-2019, %
0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.5 -3.0 -3.5 -4.0
France
OCDE
Source: OECD (2021), OECD Agri-environmental indicators
OECD Economic Surveys
FRANCE
The French economy rebounded quickly following the coronavirus crisis, in particular thanks to the acceleration of the vaccination campaign and strong public support measures. Rapid and effective implementation of the recovery and investment plans would help support stronger and more sustainable growth. However, public spending has reached an exceptionally high level, with a mixed performance, which calls for reorganising the fiscal framework to ensure the sustainability of public finances. Education and labour market integration policies will need to be better targeted, with specific training efforts for young people and older workers. Reinforced support for the most vulnerable and less qualified should reduce inequalities, including territorial ones. The transition to a greener economy is the other key challenge that France must take on. Strengthening green investments is crucial to accelerate the pace of emission cuts, as well as putting in place the necessary incentives to foster behaviourial changes, if necessary with targeted support for the most vulnerable. SPECIAL FEATURE: STEERING THE RECOVERY TOWARDS AN ECOLOGICAL TRANSITION
oe.cd/france
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