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Using Open Data to Detect Organized Crime Threats

Factors Driving Future Crime

HenrikLegindLarsen • José MaríaBlanco

UsingOpenDatatoDetect OrganizedCrimeThreats

FactorsDrivingFutureCrime

Editors

AalborgUniversity

Esbjerg Denmark

José MaríaBlanco SpanishLawEnforcementAgency GuardiaCivil

Madrid Spain

RaquelPastorPastor IsdefeS.A. Madrid Spain

RonaldR.Yager MachineIntelligenceInstitute IonaCollege NewRochelle,NY USA

ISBN978-3-319-52702-4ISBN978-3-319-52703-1(eBook) DOI10.1007/978-3-319-52703-1

LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2017930272

© SpringerInternationalPublishingAG2017

Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpart ofthematerialisconcerned,specificallytherightsoftranslation,reprinting,reuseofillustrations, recitation,broadcasting,reproductiononmicrofilmsorinanyotherphysicalway,andtransmission orinformationstorageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilar methodologynowknownorhereafterdeveloped.

Theuseofgeneraldescriptivenames,registerednames,trademarks,servicemarks,etc.inthis publicationdoesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexemptfrom therelevantprotectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse.

Thepublisher,theauthorsandtheeditorsaresafetoassumethattheadviceandinformationinthis bookarebelievedtobetrueandaccurateatthedateofpublication.Neitherthepublishernorthe authorsortheeditorsgiveawarranty,expressorimplied,withrespecttothematerialcontainedhereinor foranyerrorsoromissionsthatmayhavebeenmade.Thepublisherremainsneutralwithregardto jurisdictionalclaimsinpublishedmapsandinstitutionalaffiliations.

Printedonacid-freepaper

ThisSpringerimprintispublishedbySpringerNature

TheregisteredcompanyisSpringerInternationalPublishingAG

Theregisteredcompanyaddressis:Gewerbestrasse11,6330Cham,Switzerland

Foreword

Terrorismandseriousandorganizedcrimeremainamongthethreatsofgreatest concerninmodernsociety.Regardlessofwhethertheyaremotivatedbyprofitor extremism,criminalandterroristnetworksareextremely flexibleandhave repeatedlyshowntheirabilitytoevolverapidlyinresponsetoenvironmental changes.Increasingmobilityandthetremendousopportunitiesofferedbytechnologyarecontributingtothisrapidadaptation.

Lawenforcementagenciesarethereforefacingnewthreatswhichareemerging atanacceleratedpace.Increasingly,thesethreatsarenotcontainedwithinasingle jurisdiction,andthepublicfundsavailabletotacklethemhave,inmanycases,been reducedduetotheeconomicdownturnofthelastfewyears.Theonlypossible answerisforlawenforcementtocomplementtraditionalmethodsbyexploitingall opportunitiesofferedbynewtechnologiesandtheever-growingamountofopen sourceinformationavailable.Clearly,gainingaccesstoallpossiblesourcesof informationisnotenough;itmustalsobepossibletoanalyzeandderivemeaning fromincreasinglylargeanddiversedatasets.

IncooperationwithlawenforcementagenciesthroughoutEurope,thepartners oftheePOOLICEconsortiumdevelopedtheprototypeofanenvironmentalscanningsystemtoexploreopensourceinformationinordertodetectnewemerging terroristandseriousandorganizedcrimethreats.Theideawastocombinestate-of –the-arttechnologiesandconcepts(includingstatisticalandtextdataanalysis)with socialsciencemodelingoftheappearanceandevolutionofcrimephenomena. Identifyingmacro-environmentalfactorsinfluencingtheemergenceofcrime,as wellasdefiningthedegreeoftheirimpact,wasoneofthemostchallengingaspects oftheproject.TheePOOLICEinitiativewasaremarkableopportunitytointensify thecooperationbetweenlawenforcement,academia,andtheprivatesector.The mostpromisingnewtechnologiesinthe fieldsofinformationmanagementanddata fusionwereappliedtodevelopasystemoftoolsforthegatheringofinformationvia theInternet,turningitintoactionableintelligenceandprovidingalertsonemerging threats.Thelawenforcementpartnerscontributedusecases,sharingtheirexperienceabouthowcrimeevolves,howcriminalstargettheirvictims,andhowthey

organizetheiractivities.TheEUCommissionacknowledgedthesystemtobea successfulproofoftheconcept.

Ihopethattheresultsoftheprojectwillleadtoafunctionalsoftwaresolution whichouranalystscanuseinthefuturetosupportlawenforcementdecision making.Morebroadly,cross-borderandcross-sectorpartnershipsandinnovative approachessuchasthosedescribedinthisbookwillbecrucialtotheabilityoflaw enforcementagenciestopreventandcombatcrimeinthedigitalage.

TheHague,NetherlandsRobWainwright DirectorofEuropol

Preface

Incounteringseriousandorganizedcrime,includingterrorism,foresightof emergingthreatsisextremelyimportantasitprovidesastrategicadvantageoverthe potentialadversaries,allowingthesecurityandlawenforcementforcestoorganize theircapacityasneededtomeetthethreats.Theemergenceofsuchthreatsistoa highdegreedrivenbythedevelopmentofacombinationofcertainfactorsinthe environmentofthePESTLE(political,economic,socialanddemographic,technological,legal,andenvironmental)situationinaregion.

Opendataprovidearichbasisforextractinginformationandderivingstrategic intelligence,allowingustospotdevelopmentofsuchcrime-relevantfactorsearly andtherebytoforeseethreatsthatarelikelytoemerge.Forourpurpose,theopen datacomprisepubliclyavailabledataandinformationinanyform,inparticular electronicallythroughtheInternet,whichcanbeaccessedlegallyandethically.

Duetothehugeamountofopensourceinformation,invariousformsandof variousqualities,thereisaneedforasystemsolutionformonitoringthesources andextractingvalidrelevantinformationinduetime.TheprojectePOOLICE (www.epoolice.eu),isaprojectinthe7thFrameworkProgrammeoftheEuropean Union,aimedatdevelopingsuchasolution.

Thisbookcontainsacollectionofpapersonatopicconsideredparticularly importantforthispurpose,namely “factorsdrivingfuturecrime, ” whichwasthe topicofoneoftheePOOLICEworkshopsheldasdiscussionforaamongtechnicians,lawenforcementagencies,andotherstakeholders.Theaimoftheworkshop wastohighlightandreviewsomefactorsconsideredascatalyzeroforganized crime.Theobjectivewastoevaluatethetrendoftheselectedfactors,identifythe potentialweaksignals,andsuggesttheappropriateresponse(e.g.,combinationof technologicalresourcesandhumanactorsthatservestoimprovetheprocessof assessingneworganizedcrimethreats).

Thisbookcomprisesbothrelevanttheory(strategicanalysis,measuresofcrime, methodology,etc.)andpresentationofpracticalcaseswithfocusonrelevant aspectsofthesecases.Itdescribesseveralinterestingresultsandideasthatwere presentedanddiscussedduringtheworkshop.Severalissuesandquestionsprovide challengesforfuturework.Thisbookisorganizedasfollows:

Chapters1–2IntroduceSomeKeyConcepts

Chapter “OrganisedCrimeasaFrameworkConcept” providesanoverviewofthe situationoftheresearchoforganizedcrimeinitsdifferentdimensions.Itprovidesa discussionoforganizedcrimeasareferenceframework,inordertodelimitthe scopeofthiscrimeascomplexcriminologicalphenomena,andthenpresentsand analyzessomekeyissuesinorganizedcrimeresearch.

Chapter “MeasuringOrganisedCrime:ComplexitiesoftheQuantitativeand FactorialAnalysis” focussesonthemeasurementoforganizedcrimeandtheneed foraquantitativeapproach;itfurtherproposesanddiscussesamethodological approachtoquantitativedataandthedevelopmentoftrustworthyindicators.

Chapters3–9FocusMethodologicalAspects

Chapter “ScanningofOpenDataforDetectionofEmergingOrganizedCrime Threats TheePOOLICEProject” presentstheePOOLICEprojectthatwasaimed atdevelopingefficientandeffectivesystemforscanningtheopendatadetection emergingorganizedcrimethreats.Itintroducestheproblemandthemethodological frameworkconsideredandoutlinestheprinciplesofthesolutiondevelopedand howtheprojectwasorganized.

Chapter “ForesightandtheFutureofCrime:AdvancingEnvironmentalScanning Approaches” introducesandprovidesadetailedoutlineofenvironmentalscanning andtheearlywarningsystems’ frameworkforcrimedetectionandpreventionina predictivepolicingcontextusingforesightmethodologysuchasweaksignals, facilitatingfactors,horizonscanning,andleadingindicators.

Chapter “BigData FightingOrganizedCrimeThreatsWhilePreserving Privacy” dealswiththechallengeofbalancingprivacyandnationalsecurityin connectionwithbigdata-drivensense-makingsystemsforcrime fighting. Throughout,itreferstotheprototypesystemfromtheePOOLICEprojectto illustratethevariousissuesdiscussed.

Chapter “HorizonScanningforLawEnforcementAgencies:IdentifyingFactors DrivingtheFutureofOrganizedCrime” proposesandarticulatesamethodologyfor lawenforcementagenciestoidentifyfactorsdrivingfuturecrime.Forthispurpose, itoutlinestheuseofhorizonscanningforOpenSourcesofInformation(OSINF), i.e.,opendata,leadingtothedevelopmentofactionableOpenSourcesof Intelligence(OSINT),whichisfastbecominganintegralpartoftheprevention, investigation,anddetectionofcontemporaryorganizedcrime.

Chapter “Macro-environmentalFactorsDrivingOrganisedCrime” proposesa newmethodologicalmodel,asanintelligenceprocess,foranalyzingthefutureof organizedcrimeinthetimesofVUCA(volatility,uncertainty,complexity,and ambiguity)environments.Themodelprovidesaschematicviewontrendsand securityoutcomesfordifferentPESTLEdimensions.Foreachtrend,theframework

appliedshowsdrivers,indicators,degreeofevidence,timerangeandoutcomes, qualifi edbythedegreeofuncertainty.Thismodelallowsmonitoringfuture developmentofidenti fiedtrends,generatingknowledgeandintelligencetosupport decisionmaking.

Chapter “ExtractingFutureCrimeIndicatorsfromSocialMedia” introducesa genericintelligence-drivenprocessforextractingindicatorsfromsocialmedia, describesaconcreteimplementation,andillustratesitsinterestandstrengthontwo experiments.Basedontheexperimental findings,itproposesagenericframework fortheconstructionofcrimeindicatorsfromsocialmediafeeds.

Chapter “OrganisedCrime,WildCardsandDystopias” considersthechallenges forforesightoffutureorganizedcrimethreatsandpresentsamethodological approach,includingtechniquesandtoolsthatcanhelptocreatethisvisionofthe futurefromthefuture(andnotfromthepresent,asproposedinpreviouschapters): wildcards,scenarios,backcasting, “whatif,” anddystopias.Imaginationandcreativitymustbeapartofthesourcesofknowledgeandthemethodological approachesareneededtounderstandandmanagethefuture.

Chapters10–12PresentandAnalyzeSomeConcreteUseCases

Chapter “OperationGolf:AHumanTraffickingCaseStudy” presentsaUKand RomaniaJointInvestigation,OperationGolf,tacklingRomanianorganizedcrime andchildtrafficking.Itprovidesdetailedinformationabouthowtheinvestigation wasorganizedandrun,aswellasabouttheoutcomeoftheinvestigation.Ina prologuebytheeditors,itisoutlinedhowopendataintelligencecanhelpsuch investigationsinseveralways.

Chapter “RadicalizationinaRegionalContext:FuturePerspectiveonPossible TerroristThreatsandRadicalization” dealswithseveraltheoriesofradicalization andtheextremistideologiesbehind.Itpresentsanumberofpossiblefutureradicalizationscenariosandhighlightsdriversandindicators.Italsofocusesontherole ofthemediatoillustratetheuseandabuseofthemediabyviolentextremistgroups.

Chapter “WhyDoLinksBetweenTerrorismandCrimeIncrease?” examinesthe nexusterrorcrimeandthevariousinsightsinthe field,itspossibleforms,andthe maincriminalactivitiesinvolved.Thefactorsandenhancersofthecurrentconvergencebetweenterrorismandcrimeareanalyzed.Specialattentionisgiventothe causesthatenableandpromptterroristinvolvementincriminalactsandrelationshipswithcriminalgroups.

Esbjerg,DenmarkHenrikLegindLarsen Madrid,SpainJosé MaríaBlanco Madrid,SpainRaquelPastorPastor NewRochelle,NY,USARonaldR.Yager

PartIKeyConcepts OrganisedCrimeasaFrameworkConcept

AndreaGimenez-SalinasFramis

MeasuringOrganisedCrime:ComplexitiesoftheQuantitative andFactorialAnalysis ........................................

DanielSansó-RubertPascual

PartIIMethodology

ScanningofOpenDataforDetectionofEmergingOrganized CrimeThreats TheePOOLICEProject

RaquelPastorPastorandHenrikLegindLarsen

ForesightandtheFutureofCrime:AdvancingEnvironmental ScanningApproaches

MartinKruseandAdamD.M.Svendsen

BigData FightingOrganizedCrimeThreatsWhilePreserving Privacy

AnneGerdes

HorizonScanningforLawEnforcementAgencies: IdentifyingFactorsDrivingtheFutureofOrganizedCrime ..........

TimothyIngleandAndrewStaniforth

Macro-environmentalFactorsDrivingOrganisedCrime

José MaríaBlancoandJéssicaCohen

ExtractingFutureCrimeIndicatorsfromSocialMedia

ThomasDelavallade,PierreBertrandandVincentThouvenot

OrganisedCrime,WildCardsandDystopias

José MaríaBlancoandJéssicaCohen

PartIIIUse-Cases

OperationGolf:AHumanTraffickingCaseStudy

BernieGravett

RadicalizationinaRegionalContext:FuturePerspective onPossibleTerroristThreatsandRadicalization

HolgerNitsch

WhyDoLinksBetweenTerrorismandCrimeIncrease?

LuisdelaCorteIbáñezandHristinaHristovaGergova

EditorsandContributors

AbouttheEditors

HenrikLegindLarsen, professor,AalborgUniversity,Denmark,andCEOofLegind Technologies,Denmark,wasscientific-technicalmanageroftheePOOLICEprojectandorganizer oftheworkshoponFactorsDrivingFutureCrimethatgaverisetothisbook.Hismainresearchis inintelligentinformationsystems, flexibleinformationaccess,andfuzzylogic-basedtechnologies. Heisco-founderoftheinternationalconferencesseriesonFlexibleQueryAnsweringSystems (FQAS)andservedasgeneralchairofseveralconferencesinthisseries.Heismemberofthe editorialboardsofthejournalsFuzzySetsandSystemandInternationalJournalofUncertainty, Fuzziness,andKnowledge-basedSystems.Hisscienti ficpublicationcomprises78papers.

José MaríaBlanco istheheadoftheCentreofAnalysisandForesightinGuardiaCivil, co-directorofStrategicStudiesandIntelligenceintheInstituteofForensicSciencesandSecurity (UniversityAutónoma,Madrid),adviserintheUniversitaryInstituteofHomelandSecurity,editor oftheacademic–professionaljournal “CuadernosdelaGuardiaCivil,” professorofintelligence studies,terrorism,andorganizedcrimeinseveraluniversities,researcherinEuropeanUnion fundedprojects,andeditorofthebook “SeguridadNacional:amenazasyrespuestas,” ed.LID (2015).Hehaspublishedseveralpapers,articles,andreportsinmedia,thinktanks,andacademic journals.

RaquelPastorPastor receivedherM.Sc.degreeintelecommunicationsengineeringfrom PolytechnicUniversityofMadrid.Shehasaprofessionalcareerofover25years,havingworked bothnationallyandinternationallyatprivateandpublicsectors.ShejoinedIsdefe,Spanish state-ownedcompanyofDefenceMinistry,in2003asresponsiblefortheSoftwareEngineering GroupwithintheDefenceandSecurityDirectorate,andworkedonseveralintelligenceand electronicwarfareprojectsfortheSpanishDefenceMinistry.AscontractmanagerofFP7 EuropeanOSINTprojectswithintheSurveillanceTechnologiesDepartmentofIsdefe,sheworked asWPleaderinEuropeanFP7co-fundedVIRTUOSOprojectonOSINTandIntelligent surveillanceandenhancingbordersecurityandshemanagedasprojectcoordinatortheEuropean FP7ePOOLICEproject,onEarlyWarningandEnvironmentalScanningforthedetectionof organizedcrimethreats.

RonaldR.Yager isdirectoroftheMachineIntelligenceInstituteandProfessorofInformation SystemsatIonaCollege.HeiseditorandchiefoftheInternationalJournalofIntelligentSystems. Hehaspublishedover500papersandeditedover30booksinareasrelatedtofuzzysets,human behavioralmodeling,decisionmakingunderuncertainty,andthefusionofinformation.Heis amongtheworld’smosthighlycitedresearcherswithover57,000citationsinGoogleScholar.

HewastherecipientoftheIEEEComputationalIntelligenceSocietyPioneerawardinFuzzy Systems.Hereceivedthespecialhonorarymedalofthe50thAnniversaryofthePolishAcademy ofSciences.HereceivedtheLifetimeOutstandingAchievementAwardfromInternationalthe FuzzySystemsAssociation.Herecentlyreceivedhonorarydoctoratedegrees,honoriscausa,from theAzerbaijanTechnicalUniversityandtheStateUniversityofInformationTechnologies,Sofia Bulgaria.Dr.YagerisafellowoftheIEEE,theNewYorkAcademyofSciences,andtheFuzzy SystemsAssociation.HehasservedattheNationalScienceFoundationasprogramdirectorinthe InformationSciencesprogram.HewasaNASA/Stanfordvisitingfellowandaresearchassociate attheUniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley.HehasbeenalectureratNATOAdvancedStudy Institutes.HewasaprogramdirectorattheNationalScienceFoundation.Hewasavisiting distinguishedscientistatKingSaudUniversity,RiyadhSaudiArabia.Hewasanadjunctprofessor atAalborgUniversityinDenmark.HereceivedhisundergraduatedegreefromtheCityCollegeof NewYorkandhisPh.D.fromthePolytechnicInstituteNewYorkUniversity.Heisthe2016 recipientoftheIEEEFrankRosenblattAward,themostprestigioushonorgivenoutbytheIEEE ComputationalIntelligentSociety.HerecentlyeditedavolumeentitledIntelligentMethodsfor CyberWarfare.

Contributors

PierreBertrand ThalesCommunicationandSecurity,Gennevilliers,France

José MaríaBlanco CentreofAnalysisandForesight,GuardiaCivil,Madrid, Spain

JéssicaCohen InternationalSecurityIntelligenceAnalyst,PrivateSector,Madrid, Spain

LuisdelaCorteIbáñez UniversidadAutónomadeMadrid,Madrid,Spain

ThomasDelavallade ThalesCommunicationandSecurity,Gennevilliers,France

AndreaGimenez-SalinasFramis UniversidadAutónomaofMadrid,Madrid, Spain

AnneGerdes DepartmentofDesignandCommunication,UniversityofSouthern Denmark,Kolding,Denmark

BernieGravett SpecialistPolicingConsultancyLtd.,Oxfordshire,UK

HristinaHristovaGergova PrivateSector,Madrid,Spain

TimothyIngle WestYorkshirePolice,Wakefield,England,UK

MartinKruse CopenhagenInstituteforFuturesStudies,Copenhagen,Denmark

HenrikLegindLarsen DepartmentofElectronicSystems,AalborgUniversity, Aalborg,Denmark

HolgerNitsch DepartmentforPolicing,CollegeforPublicAdministrationin Bavaria,Bavaria,Germany

DanielSansó-RubertPascual SecurityStudiesCenter(CESEG),Universityof SantiagodeCompostela,SantiagodeCompostela,Spain

RaquelPastorPastor ISDEFE,Madrid,Spain

AndrewStaniforth WestYorkshirePolice,Wakefield,England,UK

AdamD.M.Svendsen CopenhagenInstituteforFuturesStudies,Copenhagen, Denmark

VincentThouvenot ThalesCommunicationandSecurity,Gennevilliers,France

KeyConcepts

OrganisedCrimeasaFramework Concept

1Introduction

Thesubjectoforganisedcrimehastraditionallyattractedtheattentionofexperts andlaypersons.Evidenceofthisisthevastnumberofseriesand filmsonthe televisionandintheatresonthesubjectofmafi aorganisationsandthemystery surroundingcriminalorganisations.However,itisaparticularlydifficult fieldfrom anacademicperspective,andverylimitedresultshavebeenaccomplishedin comparisonwithotherareasofcrime,suchasjuveniledelinquencyorcommon crime,whichisunderstoodasindividualcrimeagainstsexualfreedom,physical integrityorproperty(Gimenez-Salinasetal. 2009;DelaCorteand Gimenez-Salinas 2010).

Thestudyoforganisedcrimedatesbacktothe1920swhenFredericTrasher (1927)andLadesco(1929) fi rststartedresearchingthesubject.However,inthe earlydecades,researchwasgenerallymoredescriptiveandofferedscarceempirical resultsthatcouldbeusedtosupporttheoreticalconstructions(vonLampe 2011). Overtheyears,therewasaperiodduringwhichthefocuswasprimarilyondefining thisphenomenonand findingavalidconceptacademically.Hagan(2006)provided agoodsummaryofthedifferentdefi nitionsrepresentingawiderangeofconcepts whichdebatewas finallysettledbytheUnitedNationsConventionagainst TransnationalOrganisedCrimein2000.Bycontrast,inthelastdecadestherehave beenmoreempiricalstudiesinthe fi eldoforganisedcrime,althoughtheresultsare stillalongwayfromreachingthetheoreticalconclusionsofotherareasofcrime. Thereasonsforthisarethreefold:

(a)Thisisanewarea,incomparisonwithotherswhichconsensusontheir distinctivenessandconceptualdefinitiondatesbackto2000ifweconsiderthisdate asamilestoneintermsofinternationalconsensusregardingthedefinitionof

A.G.-S.Framis(&)

UniversidadAutónomaofMadrid,Madrid,Spain e-mail:andrea.gimenezsalinas@inv.uam.es

© SpringerInternationalPublishingAG2017

H.L.Larsenetal.(eds.), UsingOpenDatatoDetect OrganizedCrimeThreats,DOI10.1007/978-3-319-52703-1_1

organisedcrime(bytheUnitedNationsConvention).(b)Theempiricalinvestigationoftheseorganisationsisespeciallycomplicatedandsometimesdangerous, andtherisksinvolvedlimitthepossibilityofstudyingandaccessingsamplesof subjectsandorganisationswhichcanbeusedtofurtherdevelopourknowledgein these fields,respectively.(c)Finally,theresultsoftheresearchtodatearejust theoreticaldevelopmentsthatenforcementofficersorpoliticians finddifficultto applywhentakingdecisionsonthematter,andthus,futureinvestigationsshould focusonbridgingthegapbetweenresearchandpractice.

Wenowprovideabriefoverviewofthesituationoftheresearchoforganisedcrime initsdifferentdimensions.Firstly,weprovideadefinitionasareferenceframework andtodelimitthescopeofthismatterwithinthecurrentlyexistingcriminological phenomena.Inaddition,weanalysesomeotherlinesofinvestigationoforganised crime:hownon-conventionalcrimesismeasured(vanDijk 2007),whichcurrent toolsarefarfromperfecttocalibratethedimensionsofacomplexphenomenon;the genesisofthisphenomenaandthecriminogeniccreationandinfluenceofcriminal organisations;andtheprogressintermsofanindividualexplanationforatypeof crime,whichisverydifferenttocommoncrimebecauseitrequiresahigherdegreeof qualifi cation,planning,expertiseandinternationalcontacts.

2OriginandMeaningsoftheConceptofOrganised Crime

Sincethetermorganisedcrime firstappearedintheUSAinthe1920s,theconcept hassignificantlychangedbecauseofhowitisperceivedbysocietyandbythe authoritiesinchargeof fightingit.Inthese90years,therehasbeena firstdiscovery stage,thenastageoflocalconcernaboutforeignorganisationssettingupon Americansoilandalaststage,inwhichorganisedcrimebecameaninternational conceptwithmultipleethnicorigins.InEurope,however,moreimportancehas beengiventotheeconomicapproachoforganisedcrimeintegratedinthemarket economy.Anexaminationofthesephasesiscarefullybasedonthedescription providedbyvonLampe(2001),whocarriedoutaninterestingquantitativeand qualitativestudyoftheconceptovertimeandintheUSA,usingmediaanddocumentarysources.

Thenotionoforganisedcrimewas firstusedattheChicagoCrimeCommission, whichwascreatedin1919bybankers,businesspersonsandlawyerstopromote legislativereformonthesubjectofcrime(vonLampe 2002).Thisconceptwas coinedinamuchwidersensethanitscurrentmeaning,duetoinexperienceandits noveltythen.Theinitialconcerncentredontheemergenceofa “professional criminality”,formedbyalargenumbercriminalsthatprofitedgreatlyfromcrimes totheamazementofthegeneralpublic,whiletheauthoritiestooknoaction.These criminalswouldtakeadvantageoftheexistingpowervacuumstoprofi tfrom criminalactivitysuchascrimesagainstproperty.

Tenyearslater,therealthreatofthisphenomenabegantoemergeandanyprior positiveconnotationsbegantofade.Thisiswhentalkofracketeeringorcrime syndicates firstbegan,whichthroughbusinessassociationsandtradeunionstriedto controlthemarketandbribedbusinesspersons(Lashly 1930).Thus,furthersteps weretakenintermsofrepressionbydemandingsterneractionandgreater involvementbylawenforcement.Afterthisstage,thedebatewentquietforseveral yearsuntilitpickedupagainintenselyinthe1950swhentheKefauverSenate Committeewassetuptoinvestigateinter-statecommercebyorganisedcrimeinthe USA.TheconclusionsofthisCommitteein1951hadamajorimpactbecausethey revealedthatnumerousorganisedcrimegroupshadcometogethertocreatea “sinistercriminalorganisationknownastheMafia,whosetentaclesarefoundin manylargecities… Itsleadersareusuallyfoundincontrolofthemostlucrative rackets” (USSenate 1951).Consequently,organisedcrimeceasedtobealocal probleminjustonestateandbecamepartoftheItalian-AmericanMafia.Onthe otherhand,thecommittee’sconclusionscameatatimewhenanationalmeetingof Italian-AmericanmembersoftheMafi awasdiscoveredtohavetakenplacenear ApalachinintheStateofNewYork.Inthesameway,theMcClellanCommitteeset upin1960gainedmoreknowledgeoftheCosaNostrathroughthetestimonyofa memberoftheorganisation,JosephValachi,whotestifiedagainstsomeimportant leadersandrevealedtheinternalworkingsoftheorganisation.

Theserevelationsweregivenascienti ficsystematisationbyDonaldCresseyina booktitled ThetheftoftheNation (1979),whosedecisiontoincludealienconspiracy inthenotionoforganisedcrimewasessential(Paoli 2002)evenifitwasmuch disputedbymostAmericansocialscientistswhobelieveditwasideological,politicallymotivatedandlackingempiricalrigour(Smith 1976;Moore 1974;Hawkins 1969).Inresponsetothisrejection,theseauthorsoptedforotherapproachessuchas thenotionof “illicitenterprise”,assimilatingorganisedcrimetothebusinesssurroundings.Fromthatmoment,someauthorsbegantoexplorethemosteconomic aspectofthisconcept,focusingespeciallyontheillicitactivity,whichgenerateda financialbenefit:theprovisionofgoodsandillicitservicesovernationalitiesand culturalaspects(Smith 1976;BlockandChambliss 1981;Hagan 1983).

Theeconomicperceptionoforganisedcrimealsoinspiredthestudieson organisedcrimeinEuropeinthe1970sand80sbyauthorssuchasArlacchi(1986) orSmith(1980),whoarguedthatmodernmembersoftheMafiahadtransformed theirstrategiesandfunctionsalongwitheconomicmodernisation,makingtheir activitymoreentrepreneurialthanintermediaryorbasedonprotection.Other authorsfollowedthiseconomicapproachyetdisagreedwithArlacchi,becausethey believedthatthesefunctionswerepresentfromtheearlydaysoftheMafia (Catanzaro 1991).

Bothaspectsaresignificantinorganisedcrime,beitthepersonswhoformthe grouportheillicitcriminalactivitiescarriedouttoultimatelyobtaina financial benefit.Thisiswhybothconceptswereultimatelyconsideredessentialforthe notionoforganisedcrime,eventhoughinthe1990scomparingorganisedcrime withlegitimatecompaniesprevailedoverthenotionofmafia,whichwasnolonger associatedwiththeItalianmodel,butratherdefinedanycriminalorganisation

irrespectiveofthenationalityofitsmembers(Paoli 2002).Theconceptoforganisedcrimewasnotfreeofcontroversyafterthe1990s.Fromthe1990stothe2000s, thecoreofthescientificdebateonthisphenomenacentredonadefi nitionthatcould encompassalltheaspectsanddimensionsoforganisedcrime.Wenowexplainthe maindimensionsofcriminalbehaviour,thedifferenceswithotherrelatedgroup phenomenaandtheagreedandestablisheddefi nitionstodate.

3ConceptandDimensionsofOrganisedCrime

Thetypeofcriminalactivityanalysedinthischapterfallsintoacategorythat criminologycalls complexornon-conventionalcrime (vonLampe 2004;Vander Beker 2004;Albanese 2000, 2008).Thesearedifferenttoconventionaloffences, whicharemainlyunlawfulactscommittedbyasingleperpetrator,becauseofthe diversityofdimensionsandperpetratorsbehindthecriminalact.Thesemultiple dimensionsnotonlymakedefi ningthisparticularphenomenamoredifficult,but alsodirectlyaffectitsscientifi cassessment,descriptionandapproach (Gimenez-Salinasetal. 2009;vanDijk 2007).Inthisregard,organisedcrimetakes itsnamefromthefactthatoneofitsessentialconditionsisthatitisagroupof offenderswithdiversemembersandvariedcomplexity,whichmainactivityisthe continuousprovisionofgenerallyillegalgoodsorservices(illicitmarkets)and whichcarryouttheiractionsoractivitiesthroughcorruption,violence,penetration oflegitimatebusinessesandmoneylaundering(DelaCorteandGimenez-Salinas 2010;Gimenez-Salinasetal. 2009).Thus,organisedcrimecomprisesthree dimensions,eachofwhichhasitsowncomponentsanddynamics,whichneedtobe understoodinaglobalcontext.

(a)The fi rstdimensioncomprisesgroupsororganisationsoforganisedcrime, whichexistinmultipleformsdependingonhowmanymemberstheyhave, theirstructure,theirinternalhierarchy,members’ divisionoflabourandtheir localorinternationalpresence.

(b)Theseconddimensioncomprisesillegalmarketsortheprovisionofillegal goodsorservices,whichtheorganisationsdevelopastheirmainactivityto generateprofi ts.Theseillegalmarketscanexistindifferentformsandcanbe developedindifferentwaysdependingontheproductbeingtraded(drugs, weapons,alcohol,tobacco,protectedspecies,immigrants,organs,diamonds, amongmanyothers).Asanyothermarket,theirexistenceistheresultofan imbalancebetweenalimitedlegitimateofferanditscorrespondingdemand. Thisdisparitycanbecausedbydifferentcircumstances:theabsenceoforan insufficientlegitimateoffer,becauseitissubjecttoregulation,restrictionor control(weapons,immigrationetc.)orduetotheproduct’shigherprice becauseitissubjecttotaxesorlevies(e.g.tobaccooralcohol)(DelaCorteand Gimenez-Salinas 2010;vonLampe 2016).

(c)Thethirddimensioncomprisesactivitiesthat,inaninstrumentalway,organisationsgenerallycarryouttoremainundergroundinahostileenvironment subjecttoconstantsurveillance.Themostremarkablefeatureoftheseinstrumentalactivitiesisthattheyaregenerallyfoundtransversallyinallorganisationswithvariableintensitydependingonthecapacityandsizeofthe organisationandthebenefitsthatitslocalenvironmentoffers.Fouractivities areidenti fied:

• Corruption asameansofattainingareasofimmunitybybribingpolice agents,customsoffi cersoranyonewhohascontroloveroranywayof benefitingtheillegalbusiness,orbypayingpublicofficerstoallowthe organisationtodevelopitsbusiness(civilservantswhoknowinglygrant falseresidencepermitstohumantraffickersorlicencesorconcessionsto criminalorganisations,etc.).

• Violence isanothermethodusedbyorganisations,whichcarryouttheir activityinanenvironmentthatisregulatedbyalegalsystemtowhichthey cannotresorttoresolvetheirproblemsordisputes.Violenceisamethod that,fororganisedcrime,hasvarioususes,suchasresolvingexternaldisputes settinglimitsforcompetingorganisations enforcinginternaldisciplineordevelopingthebusinessitselfwhenthisrequiresanelementof violence,threatsandcoercion.Withregardtothelatter,werefer,for instance,toillegalbusinessessuchashumantraffickingforsexual exploitationorchildtrafficking.

• Penetrating or usingthelegaleconomy isastrategythatorganisationsoften usetoconcealtheirillegalactivities,launderillegallyearnedmoney,shift stolenorunlawfullyobtainedgoods.Thisincludes,forexample,cardealers whichareusedtosellstolenvehiclesorartgallerieswhichareusedforart traffi ckingpurposes.Itiscommonforthelegalandillegalactivitiesoflarge criminalorganisationstobeintermingled,andthisposesaseriousthreatto theeconomicsectorinwhichtheyareincluded,sincetheirpresenceand activitygivesrisetounfaircompetition.

• Moneylaundering isanecessaryprocessfororganisationsthataccrueillicit benefitsandneedtousethemforlegalpurposes.Therefore,reasonably largeorganisationsrequiremoreorlesssophisticatedwaysofconcealingthe illegalsourceofthatincome;fromsendingthemoneytoothercountries covertlyandcircumventingthe financialsystem,tomorecomplexways suchasusingshellcompaniesortaxhavenjurisdictions.

Bydefiningorganisedcrime,theconceptualbarriersbetweenorganisedcrime andothersimilarcriminalbehaviourcanbeframedanddelimitated,suchasterrorismorjuvenilegangs,whichsharesometraitswithorganisedcrime.Allthree casesincludeagroupasaunitofactivesubjectswhoparticipateincriminal activities.However,thedifferencemainlycentresonthegoalspursuedwiththe illegalactivities.Organisedcrimeonlyseeksaneconomicgain,whileterrorist groupshaveanideologicalorpoliticalelement,andmoneyorwealthisonlyan

instrumentalmeansofachievingtheiraims.Ontheotherhand,theaimofjuvenile gangsistobuildtheirownidentity,andanalternativemeansandstyleoflifefor theirmembers(VazquezGonzálezandSerrano 2007).

Despitetheirdifferentaims,otheraspectsoftheirmeansormethodscouldbe similar,especiallybetweenorganisedcrimeandterroristgroups.Werefer,for instance,tothemethodsof financing,thewaysofimplementingorganisational disciplineorviolenceasawayofsendingoutmessagestothepublicorasasignof authorityandstrengthtosocietyandtothoseinpower.Aclearexampleofsimilar meansbetweenterrorismandorganisedcrimeisthekillingsandassassinations committedbyorganisedcrimeinMexico,whenFelipeCalderónwasinpower. Theseaimedtocoerceandthreatensocietyanddirectlylockhornswiththegovernment.Ontheotherhand,theconceptualbarriersdescribedabovearesometimes difficulttodiscernfromreality,andsomeorganisationscanbefoundinbetween bothphenomena,formingatypeofhybridcategory.TheColombiangroup,known asFARC,isagoodexampleofthis.Itstartedoffasaterroristgroupbutbecamean organisedcrimegroupduetoitsmaininvolvementindrugtrafficking;orthe18th StreetorMaraSalvatruchagangs,whichstartedoffasjuvenilegangsbuthave becomefully-fledgedorganisedgroups.

Sofarwehavecoveredthecriminologicaldefi nitionoforganisedcriminal groupsregardingwhichthereiscurrentlyconsensusincriminologicalliterature (Finckenauer 2010)aftermanyyearsofconceptualdebate.However,whenthis definitionistransposedtonationalandinternationallegislations,consensusisnotas straightforward,especiallywithregardtothedefiningcharacteristicsoforganised crimeorganisations.

Ontheonehand,someinternationaldefinitions,suchasthatderivingfromthe UnitedNationsConventionagainstTransnationalOrganizedCrime(2000),state thatanorganisedcriminalgroupis “astructuredgroupofthreeormorepersons, existingforaperiodoftimeandactinginconcertwiththeaimofcommittingoneor moreseriouscrimesoroffences[…],inordertoobtain,directlyorindirectly,a financialorothermaterialbenefi t”.Inthesamevein,accordingtoCouncil FrameworkDecision2008/841/JHA,acriminalorganisationis “astructured association,establishedoveraperiodoftime,ofmorethantwopersonsactingin concertwithaviewtocommittingoffenceswhicharepunishablebydeprivationof libertyoradetentionorderofamaximumofatleastfouryearsoramoreserious penalty,toobtain,directlyorindirectly,a financialorothermaterialbenefi t”.These twodefinitionsaresimilar,eventhoughtheydonotcomprisealltheindicators mentionedabove,suchasthecharacteristicsofcriminalorganisations;theyonly refertothegroup,thecontinualandseriousactivity,anditsaim.Moreinlinewith theabovementionedcriminologicalconceptaretheindicatorsusedbyEuropolto classifyorganisedcrimeorganisations.Inthisregard,Europolrequiresthecoexistenceoffourmandatoryandsomeotheroptionalindicators.Thefourmandatory indicatorsarethefollowing:thecollaborationoftwoormorepeople,thequestfora meansofpower,continuityovertimeandthesuspicionofparticipationinserious crimes.Atleasttwoofthefollowingoptionalindicatorsarealsorequired:distributionofspecifi ctasks,controlmechanismsandinternaldiscipline,international

activity,useofviolenceandintimidation,useofbusinessandeconomicstructures, involvementinmoneylaundering,andpoliticalandmediainfluence.

Asshown,theconceptoforganisedcrimeisfarfromstraightforwardandismade upofnumerousdimensions,allofwhichareimportantforitsexistenceanddevelopment.Ontheotherhand,eachofthesedimensionsisnotstaticbutratherconstitutesgradualdimensions,whichareconsistentwiththesizeandcomplexityofthe criminalgroupsunderanalysis.Itisnotthesametotalkaboutanetworkoften membersdedicatedtodistributingcocaineinaspeci ficgeographicalareathanabout theCamorraorthe ‘Ndrangheta,whicharebigandinfluentialorganisationswith internationalcontacts,highcapacityforcorruption,andwhichexercisemajorcontrol overtheterritoryandtheillicitmarketsinwhichtheyoperate;theyalsomove substantialvolumesofillegalmoneywhichneedstobelaundered.Itscomplexityand thisdimensionalvariationobscureaveryimportantaspectoftheinvestigation:the volumeoforganisedcrimeexistinginaspeci ficperiodoftimeorterritory,whichwe callmeasurementoforganisedcrime.Weexaminethissubjectbelow.

4MeasuringandEvaluatingOrganisedCrimeandtheir Difficulties

Oneoftheclassicareasofresearchinthecriminological fi eldismeasuringcriminal phenomena.Criminologyhastakengreatstepstodesignmeasuringtoolsand indicatorstoapproximatethevolumeofcrimescommittedunderthedifferenttypes ofcrimes.However,thetraditionalinstrumentsofcriminologycannotbeusedfor thisareaofcrime.Victimisationsurveysorself-reportsurveysusedtomeasure commoncrimearenotvaluabletoanalyseorganisedcrimefortworeasons: (a)Becauseitisanunconventionalconceptwhichcannotbeconfi nedtoaspeci fic actsuchassexcrimesorcrimesagainstproperty.Organisedcrimegroupscommit multiplecriminalacts,someinherenttotheirillegalbusiness(sellingdrugs,gun traffi cking,etc.)andothersnecessarytodeveloptheiractivity(coercion,threats, murder,bribes,etc.).(b)Becauseitseffectsordamagedonotalwaysappearon individualvictims,whichcanbeusedasasourceofinformationtoknowmore aboutthecrimevictimisation.

Asaconsequence,tomeasureorganisedcrime,victimisationsurveysareusually carriedoutoncompanies,astheyhavethehighestlevelofvictimisationwithregard tospecifi cactsoforganisedcrime(extortion,bribes,fraud,etc.).Thefollowingare someexamplesofvictimisationsurveysconductedoncompaniesusedtomeasure someformsoforganisedcrime:the InternationalCommercialCrimeSurvey (ICCS 1994)carriedoutbyUNICRIandwhichmeasuresconventionalcrimesandsome formsofcorruption,the InternationalCrimeBusinessSurvey (ICBS2000)conductedbytheUNODConcorruption,fraudandextortion,andthe Crimeand CorruptionBusinessSurvey (CCBS)conductedbyUNODC(2007)whichmeasuresbribes,corruption,fraud,extortionandconventionalcrimesagainst

companies.Finally,ataEuropeanlevel,the EuropeanBusinessCrimeSurvey (Dugato 2013)wasconductedbyTranscrimeandGallupEuropetomeasurebribes andcorruption,cybercrimepiracyandcounterfeiting;protectionmoneyandusury.

Usingofficialrecordsasareference(policesourcesforcomplaintsorjudicial sourcesforlegalproceedings)tomeasureorganisedcrime,givesrisetonumerous difficulties,especiallyifwecomparethe figuresataninternationallevel.InEurope, followingtheestablishmentbyEuropolofthecommonindicatorstoclassify organisedcrimegroups,thereexistscomparativeinformationwhichgivesfurther detailsaboutthegroupsarrestedandthesubjectsinvestigatedandarrestedfor organisedcrime,evenifthisinformationisnotpublic.Nevertheless,elsewhere, arrestsdonotaccuratelyreflecttherealextentofthisphenomena,especiallyin countrieswithhighlevelsofcorruption,withsigni ficantpoliticalinterventioninthe fightagainstcrimeandpoliceinvestigationswithlimitedsuccess.Inthesecases, thereisanegativecorrelationbetweenthethe figuresoforganisedcrimeandits actualexistenceinsociety(vanDijk 2007).

Inlightofthesedifficulties,indirectmeasuringhasbeendevelopedtoapproximatethedimensionsoforganisedcrime.Onewayistomeasureorganisedcrime byestimatingitsillicitmarkets.Knowingthevolumeofdrugtraffickingortobacco contrabandorhumantraffickingallowsustomeasureorganisedcrimefromwithin themainbusinessofcriminalorganisations.Inthisregard,therearevarious approximationsthatfocusonmeasuringusingdifferentvariables:theofferorthe objectofthebusiness(e.g.whenwemeasurehowmanyhectaresofaparticular typeofdrugarecultivated),ordemand(levelsofconsumptionorproductsavailable inthemarketornumberofpeopletraded);valueofaparticularmarket(throughthe priceoftheproductorthecomponentsinthedifferentphasesofthebusiness (Reuteretal. 1990);policedetectionofanillegalproduct(throughpoliceseizures); benefitsobtainedfromaspecifi cmarket(goodsconfi scatedfromcriminalgroupsor valueoftheseizuresinanillegalmarket);and, finally,theimpactorevaluationof thedamagetoaspecifi cmarket(costsofthedamage).

Anothermethodofapproximationismeasuringthetransversalorinstrumental activitiescomprisingthethirddimensionoforganisedcrime,whichcanbefoundin mostorganisationstoagreaterorlesserextent(corruption,moneylaunderingand violence).Iftheseactivitiescanbemeasured,andthoserelatedtoorganisedcrime canbedisaggregated,thereshouldbeanindirectmeasureofthesame.Forexample, indicatorssuchasundergroundeconomycouldbeusedtomeasurelocalmoney laundering;homicidesorkidnappingscouldbeusedtomeasureviolenceinjuries; andacorruptionperceptionindexcanbeusedtomeasurecorruption.Takinginto accounttheseindirectmeasuresasareference,therehavebeenattemptstocombine themintocompositeindicesforaninternationalmeasurement.Suchisthecaseof thecompositeindexfororganisedcrimeperceptiondevelopedbyvanDijk(2007) which,althoughhasnotbeenrepeatedannually,istheonlyinputtodesigninga methodtomeasureinternationalorganisedcrime.Thiscompositeindexcombines thefollowing:thedegreeoforganisedcrimeperceptionaccordingtovarioussurveysconductedinternationallyonhoworganisedcrimeisperceived(World EconomicForum,WorldCompetitivenessReports(WEF),BusinessExecutive

Surveys,1997–2003;MerchantInternationalGroup2004(2003)andBEEPS 1996; Moneylaunderingandinformalsector(WorldEconomicForumBusiness ExecutiveSurvey, 2003;HighLevelofcorruptionindexinKaufmannetal.(2003); andtheUnsolvedHomicides(8thUNSurveyonCrimeandJustice,2002).

4.1RiskAssessmentTools

Apartfrommeasuringorganisedcrimedimensions,numerousstudieshavedevelopedriskassessmentmodels.Thethreatofcriminalgroupsisgradualandvery diversedependingontheirconfiguration,activitiesandlevelofeconomicand politicalpenetrationinsociety.Therefore,quantitativemeasuringdoesnotsuffi ceto identifythelevelofthreatofcriminalgroups;assessmentmodelsarerequired,with whichthevariousdimensionsandlevelofthreatcanbeadjusted.Theadvantageof thesemodelsisthattheycanbevaluableindecision-makingprocessesonpreventionandrepression.Thefollowingaresomeexamplesofthesetypesofmodels, appliedtocriminalgroups,illicitmarketsortothestructuralelementsthatformthe breedinggroundforthesegroupsandtheirdevelopment.

Therearetwomainwaysofevaluatingmarkets:assessingthemarketandits impactonthesocietyinwhichitislocatedandassessingthevulnerabilityof creatingaspecificmarket:

(a)Twoexamplesofmarketassessmentanditsconsequencesareprovided:the LERNAandARKOprojects,developedbytheQueenslandPoliceService (Australia)in2000(Blacketal. 2001).Botharebasedontheassumptionthat illicitmarketscanbetreatedaslegitimatemarketsand,thus,thatmarket evaluationanalysiscanbeusedtoanalysetheirimpact.Thistypeofanalysis canbecarriedoutatamacro-ormicro-level.Atamacro-level,theanalysis determinesimpactondemographicorethnographicfactorsoronaspectsrelated tohealthandcrime.Atamicro-level,analysingaspeci ficmarketbringstolight barrierstoentry,formsofnegotiationbysuppliersorconsumers,ploysby actorsinthemarket,etc.Therefore,thistypeofriskassessmentexposesvulnerabilitieswhichcanbeusedtosteerpoliceactionbetter,anditalsoprovides aninsightintothespeci ficfeaturesofeachillegalmarketanditsimpacton society.

(b)Otherassessmentmodelsmeasurethevulnerabilityorpredicttherisk(probability)oforganisedcrimebeingpresentinthelegitimateeconomy.Tothisend, aspectssuchasorganisedcriminalityandeconomicsectorregulationsor standardsaretakenintoaccount.TheworkofRuggiero(1996, 2000),Hobbes (2001),EdwardandGill(1999)andVanderBeken(2004)areparticularly noteworthyinthisarea.

Toassessorganisationsandmeasuretheirlevelofriskorthreat,thecontributionsoftheBundeskriminalamt(BKA)areworthhighlighting.In1992,they

developedamodeltoassessthepotentialfororganisedcrimebycriminalgroups (Meywirth 1999).Assessmentmodelsderivingfromthemethodologydesignedby the CrimeResearchGroup oftheUniversityofGhent(Blacketal. 2000, 2001) havealsobeendevelopedincountriessuchasAustraliaortheUSA.Ontheother hand,therearetwoothermixedmodelsthatcombineassessingorganisationsand themarketstheydevelop.OneistheSleipnirprojectdevelopedbytheRoyal CanadianMountedPolice(1999)andtheotherbyKlerks(2000).Theywereboth developedusinginformationfromaDelphisurvey,whichrevealedsomeindicators thatcouldbeusedtomeasureriskquantitatively.

Finally,thereareothermodelsthatassesstheimpactoforganisedcrimeanduse theassessmentofstructuralorfacilitatingfactorswhichsuchcrimegeneratesand inspiresasareference.Ofallthestudiesanalysed,theAlbanesemethodisparticularlyremarkable:theOrganisedCrimeRiskAssessmentTool(Albanese 2002) comprisesseventeenvariables.Also,worthnotingistheRiskAssessmentMatrix (RAM)(VandenBeken).Thismethodidenti fiespotentialsourcesofthreat, enablingriskcomparisonsandpredictionstobecarriedoutonthematter. Ifmeasuringthisphenomenonanditsassessmenthaveattractedtheattentionof thescientificcommunity,theexplanationsforthistypologyhavealsobeenan essentialfeatureofacademicdebate.Thefollowingsectionoutlinesthemain explanationsforthistypologydividedintodifferentlevelsofanalysis,whichwe needtotakeintoaccountbeforeprovidingtherelevantexplanations.

5ExplanationsforOrganisedCrime:Scope oftheDifferentLevelsofAnalysis

Theexplanationsregardingorganisedcrimehavegonethroughseveralphasesand fields.Dependingonthemethodologicalapproachandthe fieldofchoice,more emphasishasbeenplacedonsocial,economicorpoliticalconditions,which facilitateorexplaintheemergenceoforganisedcrime.The fi rstapproximations weredescriptivemodelsratherthanscientifictheories(vonLampe 2011),which developedinaunsystematicmannerwhileattemptingto findanexplanationforthe differentaspectsoforganisedcrime.However,tryingto fi ndamodelthatcomprises thefactorsinfluencingtheemergenceandsurvivalovertimeofanorganisedcrime groupororganisationwouldbetoounfeasible;thus,wewilltrytodividethe differentexplanatoryperspectivesintodifferentanalyticallevelssothatwecan clearlydistinguish,whatisbeingexplainedandhowitisbeingdone.Wewilluse threeapproachestogroupthemostrelevantexplanationsconcerningorganised crimeandavoidbeingoverlyexhaustive.

5.1Macro-sociologicalLevel

Thisexplanatorylevelshouldrevealpoliticalandeconomicfactorsthatfacilitate thedevelopmentoforganisedcrimeinaspeci ficlocation.Acriminalphenomenon doesnotemergeoutoftheblue,butratherresultsfromthesimultaneousexistence, toagreaterorlesserextent,ofspeci ficfactorsthatenableitsdevelopment.Even thoughthislevelisnecessarytoexplainorganisedcrime,ithasreceivedless scientificattentionintheliteratureanditisdifficultto findstudiesthatconducta multi-causalanalysis,while findingjusti ficationinanumberoffactorsofaneconomic,politicalandsocialnature.

TheexplanatorymodelsorparadigmsasAlbanese(2011)likestocallthemhave centredonexplainingcriminalorganisationsmainlyfromthreeangles:thehierarchicalorbureaucraticmodel,whichexplainsorganisedcrimebasedonthe structureoforganisationsastheessenceoftheexplanationandfromwhichan explanatorymodelcentredontheItalian-Americanma fiacanbedeveloped (Cressey 1979);thelocalandethnicmodelcentredoncultureandethnicityasa wayofexplainingorganisedcrimeand, finallySmith(1980),andhisbusiness model,whichexplanationcentresontheillicitactivitiesandtheprimacyofthe marketeconomyoverthegroup’sstructure,assimilatingtheorganisationtoalegal business(Smith 1980;Reuter 1983).

Veryfewstudiesaddressthefactorsthatfavourtheemergenceanddevelopment oforganisedcrimeinaspeci ficlocationandhowmovementsinsuchdevelopment canbedetected:organisationdisplacement,diminishingillicitmarkets, inter-organisationalliances,etc.Inthisregard,theworkofAlbanese(2000)is especiallyrelevantasheproposesamodelthatusesbothopportunityand offender-availabilityfactorstopredicttheincidenceoforganisedcrimeactivity.Two studiesregardinggroupmobilityhavebeenpublishedmorerecently.Morsellietal. (2010)identi fiedpushandpullfactorsthatprovideaninsightintohowandwhy criminalgroups,organisationsorgeneralpatternsoforganisedcrimearepresent acrossavarietyofsettings.Thisstudyhighlightsthepushandpullfactorsthatfavour groupmobilityinvariousdimensions:relatingtocriminalmarkets,criminalgroups andconditionsinlegitimatesettings.Thesetypeofstudiesarescarcebutabsolutely necessarybecauseoftheirimpactonwhicheverpreventionpoliciesandstrategiesare tobedeveloped.Varesehasalsopublishedabookonthemobilityofmafiasinthe samedirection,explainingtheunintentionalandintentionalfactorsthataccountfor thepresenceofthemafiosiinanewterritory(Varese 2011).

5.2OrganisationalLevel

Thenextexplanatoryleveloforganisedcrimedrawsonorganisationasthesubject ofthestudyandisthemostexploredlevelifweconsiderthenumberofinvestigationsthatcanbeincludedinthislevel.Theexplanatorymodelsorparadigms

mentionedabovehavecentredonexplainingcriminalorganisations,focusing mainlyontwoaspects:

(a)Theinternalstudyofcriminalorganisationsasawayof findingoutmoreabout theirdynamicsandinternalcohesionmechanisms,whichallowsthemto functionunderground.

Inthisregard,the firststudythatanalysedtheworkingsoforganisationsfrom withintheirstructurewasCressey(1979),whocameupwithahierarchicalmodel basedonthetestimoniesofValachi,arepentantoftheCosaNostrawhoexposed theorganisation’sbestkeptsecrets.Later,Albini(1971),whowasnotconvincedby thismodel,cameupwithanalternativemodelcalled Patron-clientmodel,whichis amorereticularmodelbasedonprotectionandtheloyaltyrelationshipsofmembers ofthemafi a.Stillonthesubjectofstructuralaspectsoforganisations,studieshave alsoanalysedthesize,centralisationandformalityoforganisations(Sutherlandand Potter 1993;Varese 2001;Zaitch 2002;Paoli 2003).

Currently,organisationalstructurehaslostgroundonthebasisthatthereare differenttypologieswithinacontinuumthatrunsfromhierarchicalandtraditional centralisedorganisationstoreticularstructures,whicharemuchmore flexibleand fluidforprotectionpurposesinmoresupervisedandcontrolledenvironments (UNODC 2002).Inthisway,thereiswidespreadconsensusintheliterature, throughvariousworksthatofferempiricalsupportonthesubject,thatorganisations tendtobemore flexibleandreticularduetoimprovementsincommunication, globalisationandthenewtechnologiesavailable,whichfacilitateamore fluidand notsostructuredrelationship(KleemansandVandeBunt 2008;Bruinsmaand Bernasco 2004;Natarajan 2006;MorselliandGiguère 2006;MorselliandRoy 2008;Morselli 2009).

Thesechangeshavealsoalteredhoworganisationalexplanationsareunderstood andaddressedandhavegivenrisetoalineofinvestigationthatoffersinvestigative andoperativeadvantagesovertraditionalconceptions.Referringtothesocial networkanalysismethodologyenablestomoreeasilyconfinethedifferentcriminal organisations,fromsimpleand flexiblegroupsofcriminalstolargestructuredand permanentcriminalcorporations(Morselli 2009).Thismethodologicalapproach originatesfromtheworkofthepsychologistMoreno(1953)andhasbeenapplied tomultiple fields,includingthestudyof covertnetworks,whichinternalworkingis stillunknownduetothecautionwithwhichtheseorganisationsoperate.Thistoolis ausefulandefficientwayofknowingmoreaboutunderlyingstructures,themost signifi cantplayersinthegrouponthebasisoftheirrelationshipwithothermembers andthemosteffi cientwayofdismantlingit(Morselli 2009;BruinsmaandBernasco 2004).

(b)Understandinggroupinfluencewhenexplainingindividualcrime.

Withinthistypeofcriminalphenomena,whichmainfeatureiscriminalactivity carriedoutwithinthescopeofanorganisation,thecriminalgrouprepresentsa well-definedcriminologicalfactor,whichhasanvitalinfluenceonattractingnew

members,retainingcurrentmembersanddevelopingcodesandinternalrulesthat justifyandfacilitateviolenceandcrime.Sutherland(1937)wasthe fi rsttoaddress thecriminologicaleffectoftheinfluenceofsocialinteractionwithcriminals.This impacthasbeenmuchstudiedinjuveniledelinquency,especiallywithregardto juvenilegangs.Suchisthecaseoftheauthors,whostudiedtheeffectofcriminal groupinteractionongainingskills,experienceandcriminalopportunities(Burt 1992;Granovetter 1973;Lin 2001).However,thesedevelopmentshavenotcome intheareaoforganizedcrime,inwhichgrouppressureandinfluencewouldbe especiallyrelevant,makingthegroupmorecomplexandstructured.

Ontheotherhand,throughthisexplanatoryaim,someofthetraditionalcriminologicalexplanatorytheorieshavebeenadjustedtoorganisedcrime.Thisisthe caseofthedifferentialassociationtheorydevelopedbySutherland(1947),which ascribestothecriminalgroupanessentialinfluenceonlearningcriminalbehaviour, itstechniquesandmethodsandevenontheindispensablejustifi cationtocontinue withthecriminalbehaviourintothefuture.Thedifferential-opportunitytheory developedbyClowardandOhlin(1960)attributestothegroupthecrucial opportunityforyoungpeoplewithlittleprospectofachievingeconomicandsocial successinthelegalcommunity.Thistheory,whenappliedtoorganisedcrime, providesaninsightintohowcriminalorganisationsestablishedinunderprivileged neighbourhoodsarethemainroutetoprosperityforyoungpeoplewholackthe resourcesandopportunitiestohaveafutureprofessioninthelegalcommunity.

Withregardtothemagneticeffectthattheseorganisationshaveforunderprivilegedyoungpeople,Ianni(1974)throughthe ethnicsuccession theoryalready recognisedthatorganisedcrimeintheUSAwasawayofprogressingsocially (queerladderofmobility)(Bell 1953)forimmigrants,whohadjustsetfooton Americansoil.Currently,thesepremisesstillapplyandimmigrationcanbearisk factorinrelationtoinvolvementinorganisedcrime,notsomuchbecauseofthe nationalityelement,butbecauseofthelackoflegalopportunityconditionsfor immigrantsinthecountriesofdestination.AninvestigationcarriedoutinSpainon asampleof1156membersof72criminalorganisationsshowed,afteranalysing theiremploymentstatusinSpain,that70%offoreignersdidnothavealegitimate job.Conversely,thispercentageisreversedforSpanishcitizens,asonly40%of themwereunemployed(Gimenez-Salinasetal. 2009).Generally,theforeigncitizensdidnothavearesidencepermitandwereillegallyresidinginSpain,andthus, theyhadlimitedchancesofoptingforlegitimateemploymentincomparisonwith theoffersfromcriminalorganisations.

Thesetheoriesareatranspositionofthetraditionalcriminologicaltheoriesto organisedcrime,buttherearefewcontributionsthatexplaintheopportunitiesoffered byacriminalorganisationtoadultcriminals.Themajorityareexplanationsfor juveniledelinquencyadaptedtoadultdelinquency.Futureresearchintoriskfactors forthistypeofdelinquencyandthefactorsthatfacilitatediscontinuanceshouldbe carriedoutfromanorganisationalperspective(i.e.howcanweworkagainstthe criminogeniceffectoftheorganisationandofferlegalopportunitiesinreturn).

5.3IndividualExplanations

Literatureonorganisedcrimeiscopiousinthestudyofcriminalorganisationsand theirinternaldynamics,butthereislittletraditionofempiricalstudiesthataddress theprofileofmembersoforganisations.However,inrecentyearstherehavebeen highernumberofinvestigationsonsamplesofsubjectsinvolvedinorganisedcrime whichaddressthedifferencesbetweenthistypeofcriminalandcommoncriminals.

Thepsychologicalprofileofthistypeofcriminalhasundergonelittleresearch, muchlessthaninthe fieldofwhite-collarcrime,whichoffersmoreinvestigations. Essentially,theonlyexistinginvestigationwasconductedbyBovenkerk(2000)on theprofilesoftheleadersoforganisations,assimilatingthemtothepositionsin legitimatecompanies.Thisstudysuggeststhatthedistinctiveindividualpersonality traitsofleadersofcriminalorganisationsaresimilartopersonalitytraitsthatpredict leadershipsuccessinlegitimatebusiness:extraversion,controlledimpulsiveness,a senseofadventureormegalomaniaandNarcissisticpersonalitydisorder.Thereare nootherstudiesinthisregard,justotherauthorswhohaveaddressedtheabilities, attitudesandskillsrequiredofcriminalsinvolvedincriminalorganisations(Beare 1996;VanDuyne 2003;Homer 1974;Levi 1998).

Despitethelackofespeciallyconclusivestudiesonindividualprofiles,thelatest studiesonprofilesandcriminalcareersoforganisedcriminalsrevealthattheprofile ofthistypeofcriminalisverydifferenttothatofacommoncriminalandthatthere aredifferentprofilesassociatedwithdifferentfunctionswithinacriminalorganisation.Theprofileofamemberinchargeofgroupcoordinationorlaundering illegalmoneyisnotsimilartoanothermemberwhoisinchargeoflogisticaltasks, controlorinflictingviolence.Eventhoughresearchisratherscarce,wecanprovide theconclusionsreachedwithregardtothesetwopoints.

(a)Differenceswithcommoncriminals

Somerecentresearchsuggeststhattherearesignificantdifferencesbetween commoncriminalsandorganisedcrime,totheextentthatthemaintheoretical conclusionsespeciallydevelopedbydevelopmentalcriminology,wouldnotapply toorganisedcriminals.Themaindifferencesrelatetogenderandage.Female delinquencyismorepresentinorganisedcrime(17%comparedto10.8%in commondelinquency)thancommoncrime(Gimenez-Salinasetal. 2011). Regardingcriminalage,inaverageishigherinorganisedcrime(anaverageof between30and40comparedto18–21incommondelinquency)(Gimenez-Salinas etal. 2011;VanKopperetal. 2010a).Theseconclusionsareinlinewiththeskill setrequiredtobeamemberofanorganisedcrimeorganisation.Theorganisational functionsofthistypeofcrimeentailsuchplanning,experience,specialisationand highdegreeofcominglingwithlegitimatecompaniesthattheyrequireskills, abilities,know-howandcontactswhicharetypicalofamuchmoreadultprofile, withprofessionalexperience,andonethatisverydifferenttothatofacommon criminal(Gimenez-Salinasetal. 2011).

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"Well"—her voice became harder—"it's this, if you want plain speaking. Watch her in case she kills herself. She's thinking of it."

He went ashen pale again and said quietly, after a long pause: "How do you know that?"

"Her letter."

"She mentioned it?"

"Yes."

"And that's what you've come to warn me about?"

"Yes. And to persuade you, if I could——"

"Why did you decide that a personal visit was necessary?"

"I shouldn't have cared to tell you all this by letter. And besides, a letter wouldn't have been nearly as quick, would it? You see I only received her letter this morning. After all, the matter's urgent enough. One can easily be too late."

He said, with eyes fixed steadily upon her: "Clare, you are too late. She drowned herself last night."

He expected she would cry or break down or do something dramatic that he could at any rate endure. But instead of that, she stared vacantly into the fast-deepening gloom of the coppice, stared infinitely, terribly, without movement or sound. Horror tore nakedly through her eyes like pain, though not a muscle of her face stirred from that fearful, statuesque immobility Moments passed. Far over the intervening spaces came the faint chiming of the half-hour on the town-hall clock, and fainter still, but ominous-sounding, the swirl of the waves on the distant beach as the wind rose and freshened.

He could not bear that silence and that stillness of hers. It seemed as though it would be eternal. And suddenly he saw that she was really suffering, excruciatingly; and he could not bear it, because he loved her. And then all his plans for torturing her, all his desires for vengeance, all his schemes to make her suffer as he had suffered, all the hate of her that he had manufactured in his heart—all was suddenly gone, like worthless dust scoured by the gale. He

perceived that they were one in suffering as in guilt—fate's pathetic flotsam, aching to cling together even in the last despairing drift.

He cried, agonisingly: "Clare! Clare! Oh, for God's sake, don't stare at me like that, Clare! Oh, my darling, my dear darling, I'm sorry —sorry—I'm dead with sorrow! Clare—Clare—be kind to me, Clare —kinder than I have been to you or to Helen! ..."

VIII

She said, quietly: "I must get back in time for my train."

"No, no—not yet. Don't go. Don't leave me."

"I must."

"No—no——"

"You know I must. Don't you?"

He became calmer. It was as if she had willed him to become calmer, as if some of the calmness of her was passing over to him. "Clare," he said, eagerly, "Do you think I'm bad—am I—rotten-souled —because of what's happened? Am I damned, do you think?"

She answered softly: "No. You're not. And you mustn't think you are. Don't I love you? Would I love you if you were rotten? Would you love me if I was?"

He replied, gritting his teeth: "I would love you if you were filth itself."

"Ah, would you?" she answered, with wistful pathos in her voice. "But I'm not like that. I love you for what I know you are, for what I know you could be!"

"Could be? Could have been! But Clare, Clare—who's to blame?"

"So many things happen dreadfully in this world and nobody knows who's to blame."

"But not this, Clare. We're to blame."

"We can be to blame without being—all that you said."

"Can we? Can we? There's another thing. If Helen had—had lived —she would have had a baby in a few months' time...."

He paused, waiting for her reply, but none came. She went very pale. At last she said, with strange unrestfulness: "What can I say? What is there to say? ... Oh, don't let us go mad through thinking of it! We have been wrong, but have we been as wrong as that? Hasn't there been fate in it? Fate can do the awfullest things.... My dear, dear man, we should go mad if we took all that load of guilt on ourselves! It is too heavy for repentance.... Oh, you're not bad, not inwardly. And neither am I. We've been instruments—puppets——"

"It's good to think so. But is it true?"

"Before God, I think it is.... Think of it all right from the beginning.... Right from the night you met us both at Millstead.... It's easy to blame fate for what we've done, but isn't it just as easy to blame ourselves for the workings of fate?"

She added, uneasily: "I must go back. My train. Don't forget the time."

"Can't you wait for the next?"

"Dear, you know I mustn't. How could I stay? Fate's finished with us now. We've free-will.... Didn't I tell you we weren't bad? All that's why I can't stay."

They began to walk back to the railway-station. A mist-like rain was beginning to fall, and everything was swathed in grey dampness. They talked together like two age-long friends, partners in distress and suffering; he told her, carefully and undramatically, the story of the night before.

She said to him, from the carriage-window just before the 3:18 steamed out: "I shan't see you again for ever such a long while. I

wish—I wish I could stay with you and help you. But I can't.... You know why I can't, don't you?"

"Yes, I know why We must be brave alone. We must learn, if we can, to call ourselves good again."

"Yes.... Yes.... We must start life anew. No more mistakes. And you must grow back again to what you used to be.... The next few months will be terrible—maddening—for both of us. But I can bear them. Do you think you can—without me? If I thought you couldn't"— her voice took on a sudden wild passion—"if I thought you would break down under the strain, if I thought the fight would crush and kill you, I would stay with you from this moment, and never, never leave you alone! I would—I would—if I thought there was no other way!"

He said, calmly and earnestly: "I can fight it, Clare. I shall not break down. Trust me. And then—some day——"

She interrupted him hurriedly. "I am going abroad very soon. I don't know for how long, but for a long while, certainly. And while I am away I shall not write to you, and you must not write to me, either. Then, when I come back ..."

He looked up into her eyes and smiled.

The guard was blowing his whistle.

"Be brave these next few months," she said again.

"I will," he answered. He added: "I shall go home."

"What? Home, Home to the millionaire soap-boiler?" (A touch of the old half-mocking Clare.)

"Yes. It's my home. They've always been very good to me."

"Of course they have. I'm glad you've realised it."

Then the train began to move. "Good-bye!" she said, holding out her hand.

"Good-bye!" he cried, taking it and clasping it quickly as he walked along the platform with the train. "See you again," he added, almost in a whisper.

She gave him such a smile, with tears streaming down her cheeks, as he would never, never forget.

When he went out again into the station-yard the fine rain was falling mercilessly. He felt miserable, sick with a new as well as an old misery, but stirred by a hope that would never let him go.

Back then to the Beach Hotel, vowing and determining for the future, facing in anticipation the ordeals of the dark days ahead, summoning up courage and fortitude, bracing himself for terror and conflict and desire.... And with it all hoping, hoping ... hoping everlastingly

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