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Engines That Move Markets

Technology Investing from Railroads to the Internet and Beyond

Second Edition

“The four most expensive words in the English language are ‘This time it’s different.’ ”

Sir John Templeton

For Siobhan, Hannah, Alexandra and Lochlann

Contents

Acknowledgements

Foreword to the First Edition by Sir John

Templeton

introduction

Making Sense of Technology Bubbles

Purpose of the research

Questions raised

The scope of the research

New and updated material

Timeless lessons

chapter 1

Making Tracks

The Industrial Revolution, canals and railways

Introduction

Funding the Industrial Revolution

The heyday of canals

The new production technology is adapted for transport

Responding to the threat

Success not guaranteed

Optimism and gearing

Heroes and villains

How the boom ended

Conclusions

chapter 2

Breaking Out

The story of the US railroads

Beginnings: boats, barges and horses

Vanderbilt and America’s steamboat wars

Towards a rail network

A game of monopoly: the fight for Erie

The rule of law – or corruption?

Competition and consolidation

The battle for control of the West

The railroad wars intensify

Competition of the transcontinental route

Conclusions

chapter 3

Investing at the Speed of Sound

How the telephone changed everything

Origins of the telegraph

The British experience

Western Union and the US market

Competitors emerge

The emergence of the telephone

From prototype to commercial development

Western Union changes tack

The importance of patents

Competition arrives

The market matures

Enter Theodore Vail

Conclusions

chapter 4

Lighting Up

Edison and the electric lamp

The search for illumination

Gas: a comfortable monopoly

The development of electric light

The Brush stock market bubble

The roots of arc lighting’s failure

Next step: the incandescent lamp

Thomas Edison enters the field

Maintaining an interest in both camps: diversifying risk

Propaganda and confidence

On-off enthusiasm in the markets

Edison’s corporate ventures

Westinghouse and the AC/DC wars

The industry consolidates

Conclusions

chapter 5

Digging Deep

The search for oil

Edwin Drake’s discovery

The floodgates open

Rockefeller takes a grip

From participation to domination

The world beyond Pennsylvania

New industry combinations

Public opinion turns against Big Oil

Trustbusting – the dissolution of Standard Oil

Conclusions

chapter 6

Driving Forward

The history of the automobile

The search for a horseless carriage

Europe’s first pioneers

The race to attract attention

America takes a turn of the wheel

Enter the Duryea brothers

The battle for technology leadership

The Lead Cab Trust

The market begins to form

The impact of Henry Ford

Early attempts to consolidate

Durant joins the fray

The Studebaker story

The evolution of the automobile industry in America

The industry in Europe

Conclusions

chapter 7

Making Waves

The story of wireless, from Marconi to Baird

Marconi and the origins of wireless

From wire to wireless – the technology in context

Marconi courts the press

Scientific scepticism

From demonstration to practicality

The market starts to develop

Stock funding, De Forest style

The Marconi companies

Government steps in

Commercial spin-offs from the radio

RCA – the national champion

The birth of broadcasting

Development of the broadcasting industry

Television: an idea ahead of its time

Conclusions

chapter 8

Making it Count

From adding machines to mainframes

The business of counting

Babbage and his engines

The cash register rings up

Big business in counting heads

The race to find other uses

The next wave of innovation

The legacy of Bletchley Park

Next stop the vacuum tube

ENIAC and EDVAC

Up against the funding wall

Success for the UNIVAC

The arrival of the transistor

Computer wars

Timesharing: an idea before its time

From mainframes to minicomputers

Conclusions

chapter 9

Processing Power for All

The rise of the PC

The roots of the PC

The birth of Intel

The calculator – accidental mass market product

Economic imperatives

From calculators to the PC

Creating an industry

From myth to reality – two new products

Apple and the search for a user-friendly machine

IBM lumbers in

Send in the clones

Microsoft’s vision

The PC business in perspective

chapter 10

The Internet

How computing timeshare became a global phenomenon

Part I: The lure of computer networking

Something stirs in academia

Timeshare computing: means to an end

Nurtured by the military

Marketing the dream

From academia to commercialisation

Enter Cisco Systems

Towards an electronic post office

The challenge of access

Part 2: Commericalising the Internet

Privatisation was the key

The rise and fall of Netscape

Getting access: America Online

Browser wars

A new business model

The Yahoo story

Google – so much for first-mover advantage!

The market developed differently

A pioneering IPO

Amazon: buying things

Heading to market

Facebook: the rise of social media

Part 3: The Internet bubble in perspective

A new Industrial Revolution…

…and a monster stock market bubble

Inflating the bubble

Valuation issues

Web 1.0 (1997–2003): analysing the Internet boom

Out of the wreckage

Web 2.0 (2008+): a new bubble?

Part 4: Looking to the future

Towards a brave new world

chapter 11

The Anatomy of Technology Investing

The persistence of change

Clear in retrospect, but rarely in advance

The technology cycle

What works and what does not

The economic impact

The Internet and the technology cycle

The market impact of the Internet bubble

The misallocation of capital to telecoms

Where we are today

The broader impact and the

future

Timeless lessons about technology investing

Publishing details

Acknowledgements

Entering into a venture such as researching and writing this book while in full-time employment was not something that I did lightly. I took the decision at the height of the Internet bubble of 1999–2000. The driving force behind it was the frustration I felt in respect of what was happening in global stock markets at the time and the dangers this was likely to present for investors. In all likelihood the frustration I felt with stock market gyrations was soon matched by that of my family as I disappeared off to work on ‘the book’. For nearly 18 months I was posted missing and without doubt I owe a large debt of gratitude to my wife for putting up with me for this period. Nearly 20 years later, for this and many other reasons, the debt of gratitude has only grown.

The book itself could not have been written without the assistance of an individual with an ability to unearth information that is simply unrivalled. Murray Scott gave up much of his spare time to help me gather the historic financial information and put it in a useable form. It is difficult to give a flavour of just how much information had to be collected – suffice to say that it reached the ceiling of the room in which it was stored. What Murray was able to find was incredible and testament to his tenacity in chasing down information. In this he was aided by an outside world of librarians and archivists who typically provided enthusiastic support in the search for lost or forgotten documents. You are a wonderful group of people – thank you.

I would also to thank those who looked at various manuscripts, including Gordon Milne and in particular Jonathan Davis, who has edited, corrected and improved many versions of the text, including this second updated edition. The pair of us have since collaborated on a second book, Templeton’s Way With Money, and a third is now in preparation. The fact that we are still working together after all this effort is a wondrous thing and a testament to the pleasures of collaboration.

I would like to extend my heartfelt thanks finally to Myles Hunt and Christopher Parker of Harriman House who, together with other unheralded colleagues, have shepherded this new edition into print with consummate patience and skill.

Foreword to the First Edition by Sir John Templeton

Founder of the Templeton Investment mutual funds and of the Templeton charity foundations

There has never been a better time to be alive than today and we should count our blessings for this good fortune. I remain optimistic as to how the future will unfold – but that does not mean that one should not be careful when making investments. The river of good fortune may be flowing in our direction but we must plot a careful course through the rapids that threaten to upturn our boat. We must remain patient, flexible in our outlook and always aware that eventually all securities and assets will be priced according to their future earnings.

The impact of expectations underpinned by emotion adds up to a trend on stock markets. Those who attest to the singular nature of our current bull market – or, for that matter, any bull market – really ought to know better. The lessons of history are very clear in this regard. All bull markets come to an end, typically when people are most optimistic about the future, and they are followed by bear markets which similarly reach their conclusion when sentiment is at its most negative.

As George Santayana said, those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it. In this important new book, Sandy Nairn, my friend and former colleague, looks at old technologies when they were new, in order to see how they were received at the time and how events unfolded as the technology was deployed. The aim is to try and set what is happening today in the context of previous technological breakthroughs. What is unique about this book is that he has extensively researched global archives to find out what the press actually said at the time and how share prices responded. Many new technologies changed the way we live. Whether it was the railroads which opened up the Great Plains of America and helped

change an emerging nation into the world’s greatest economic power in 50 years by revolutionising the transportation of goods and people; whether it was the telephone which changed communication forever; or whether it was the computer that created whole new industries – they all shared common characteristics. It is these common characteristics which Sandy has tried to highlight and place in the context of the time.

Like myself, Sandy is an investor who believes that investing in the stock market is an activity that calls for great patience and fortitude. To make superior returns the investor has to be prepared to act against the consensus and invest when sentiment is extremely negative, or, as I prefer to call it, at the point of maximum pessimism. Likewise, he must be prepared to sell when the levels of optimism are excessive.

In recent times it has become apparent that many prices for stocks have been pulled along by the increasing optimism of the longest bull market in post-war history, to the extent that their market prices are far in excess of their intrinsic worth. Hopefully the reader will understand this better by reading through the examples in this book.

Three years ago, Sandy cast around for research on the duration and magnitude of global bull and bear markets. He was surprised to find that in spite of the huge volume of investment literature, such research was not readily available. Undaunted, Sandy set about constructing his own study. The results confirmed what many value investors already knew. First, it is better to be in the market than out – over the long-term, world stock markets rise. Secondly, although on average a bull market is four times greater than bear markets, there is no set pattern that allows simple prediction of when a bull market will end.

The genesis of the book lay in Sandy’s desire to see what lessons could be learned from history – not just the statistics, but also the prevailing social attitudes. He has sifted through the archives in a bid to capture the atmosphere surrounding each new stock market boom. What were the common aspirations in early 19th-century England, or late 19th-century America? What investment opportunities generated enthusiasm?

Placing these historical market movements in context is important. It is helpful to remember that a market index is no more than the aggregate changes in prices of shares that comprise it. In order to come to an understanding of the intrinsic value of a security, the value investor’s main areas of focus should be estimated future earnings and the environment in which these companies are operating.

Hence, this book – an examination of the technological change in the context of the time. Sandy focuses on a number of economic milestones –electric light, the railroad, oil, the automobile, the telephone, the radio, the semiconductor, all of which have changed our world. In itself, the text would be engrossing enough. Sandy examines the ingenuity of the entrepreneurs of bygone years – how they struggled to develop their products and markets.

However, a striking feature of each chapter is the fact that while the patterns have not been identical in each case they have been very similar. First, a new invention is greeted with scepticism from incumbent technology and potential new investors. That scepticism is gradually replaced with enthusiasm, as businessmen come to appreciate the sales potential of the new technology. Soon, new entrants are flocking to the market, and venture capital funding is made available. Companies are started; almost all do well (in terms of share price) in the market on a tidal wave of enthusiasm. So far, so good; but as the technology begins to mature, a sense of realism sets in. Inevitably, for some, cash runs out. Companies begin to fold, only the strong survive and naive investors lose money in the huge rationalisation. Pessimism begins to pervade the marketplace and stock prices fall across the board. Eventually, the market stabilises.

This same pattern occurred with the development of the railroads, electric light, oil, the telephone, the automobile, the radio, the semiconductor. After reading Sandy Nairn’s excellent book, you may well recognise the familiar pattern unfolding once more in today’s economy. This is not something to be frightened of. Technology may have changed the world – but it has not

changed human nature. To survive and prosper now requires only the same fortitude and common sense as it did 200 years ago.

john m. templeton, kt.

August 2000

Making Sense of Technology Bubbles

Purpose of the research

This book had its origins as an in-depth study of the impact that the great technological inventions of the past 200 years, from the railways to the Internet, have had on financial markets and investors’ fortunes. The research was begun in 1999, just as the great stock market bubble of 1999–2000 was coming to a head, and it seemed that any company connected with the Internet could do no wrong. The original aim of the research was to satisfy my curiosity, as a professional investor, as to how and why new technologies can create such apparently irrational stock market bubbles. With hindsight we can see quite clearly now how the so-called TMT (technology-media-telecoms) bubble of 1999–2000 developed into the greatest of all stock market manias, just as many of us expected at the time. However, back then, living through it, it simply defied all notions of common sense or professional expertise.

As Director of Global Equity Research at Templeton Investment Management at the time, it was my job to lead the analysis of stocks for a leading international fund management house. I lost count of how many times well-paid analysts from Wall Street sought to promote this or that dotcom company – with no sales and no prospects of earnings in the foreseeable future – with a view to influencing our staff and ultimately our portfolios. The underlying message was that whether we liked it or not these stocks were something we should be adding to our list of stock buys. For this edition of the book, nearly 20 years on, it is somehow fitting that I find myself back working at Templeton. The fundamental truths of investment remain unchanged, as does the need for investment discipline and rigour.

Back in 1999 the problem was that I kept hearing: “This is the new economy, stupid. Don’t you know that things are different in the new economy?” As I scratched my head, trying to make sense of it all, this would often be followed up with the irritating phrase: “You just don’t get it,

do you?” In other words: ‘It’s different this time.’ Well, I thought I did get it. My instinct was that the bubble was just that – an outbreak of collective insanity that was one day going to burst. There was no way that many of the companies being sold to investors could ever hope to make a profit, let alone justify the kind of market valuations that were placed on them at the time.

True, I was not alone in this. Many investors held a similar view. Few of them, however, were fortunate enough to work in organisations which held to their discipline during a time when the pressure to invest and maintain short-term performance was intense. In this regard I was very fortunate – I worked in an organisation where the owners were themselves long-term investors, and as such were willing to support a position if it could be logically justified. Many professional investors were not in this position and found themselves exiting the industry, ironically just when the bubble was about to burst.

One reason for that is that the incentives to participate in an emerging technology craze are so very powerful. Even in the most austere professional environment, any personal doubts about the sustainability of a high-profile momentum phenomenon tend to be swamped by the institutional imperative of grabbing a piece of the rich short-term pickings on offer. The investment business is dominated by corporations and partnerships whose internal processes are wired to echo St Augustine’s famous plea: “Lord, make me chaste – but not yet.”

At the time, with the pressure to jump on the bandwagon so intense, I had to admit that I did not know all there was to know about the new technology. The nagging doubts that I might just be missing something remained. It set me wondering: what happened in the past when new technologies with similar transforming potential had arrived on the scene? How did investors and the media react at the time? Who ended up as winners and losers from those episodes? Maybe there were lessons to be learnt that could explain what was happening with the phenomenon I was living through.

Questions raised

The kinds of questions that I wanted to investigate were:

Could and should the bubble mania of 1999–2000, and the way that it developed, have been foreseen?

What lessons could today’s investors learn from the history of the railways, from the way that the radio and electric light developed, and other episodes of epoch-making technological change?

Was it obvious at the time, for example, that a great company such as RCA would make as much money as it did, while its originally more successful parent Marconi produced much less impressive returns?

What pointers from the past were relevant in deciding which (if any) of the pioneering companies of the Internet age – the likes of AOL, Amazon and Yahoo – were most likely to survive and prosper?

Do investors in aggregate stand to make money from technological changes? If so, what are the characteristics of the most successful companies? And can investors predict the eventual winners with confidence?

From a practical perspective, as the bubble started to burst spectacularly, it led me to wonder what pointers history provided as to how investors in this latest technology were likely to fare over the medium to longer term.

Should I have been buying technology shares in preparation for an inevitable rebound – or continuing to avoid them like the plague?

If the latter, for how long should I expect to wait until the sector became investable again?

How well would the winners and losers from this latest technological breakthrough do for their shareholders?

The scope of the research

The ten historical episodes covered in detail in the research were: the railway boom in Britain, from the 1840s onwards the early railroad industry in the United States the development of the automobile industry the story of the discovery of electric light and its commercial exploitation the discovery and early development of crude oil the emergence of the telegraph business the early history of wireless, radio and TV IBM and the growth of the computer industry the PC battles of the 1980s the Internet and the dot-com bubble of the 1990s and beyond.

Most of these episodes tended to be associated with just one or two successful companies – Western Union in the telegraph business, GE in lighting, Ford and GM in the automobile industry, IBM in computers, Microsoft in the software business. Yet the eventual success of these companies was far from a foregone conclusion. For every company that built an enduring market position, there were hundreds of others who tried to do the same thing – and failed.

In many cases, reconstructing the economic and share price performance of the leading companies involved proved a full-time piece of research in itself. Simply finding and collecting the information was a task which absorbed a huge amount of time. I hope that readers find the graphs that show the earnings growth, return on capital and share price performance of some of the great technological pioneers of the past instructive. I tried to keep the analysis simple and such that comparisons could be made between different time periods and different industries. I did not spend a huge

amount of time going into detailed valuation work, partly because of the space it would have absorbed, but mostly because the simple graphs were sufficient to tell the story on their own.

New and updated material

For this second revised edition I had an opportunity to revisit the events of 1999–2000 with the added benefit of a rearview mirror. It is pleasing to be able to report that most (but not every single one) of my contemporaneous thoughts on how the Internet bubble would play out were vindicated. ‘This time it’s different’ did not turn out to be any more true than before. Anyone with an understanding of previous technology episodes should have been able to navigate this mania successfully, although many investors and entrepreneurs did not.

I have also taken the opportunity of this new edition to add some further analysis of how the Internet evolved in practice over the 15 years since the previous edition. As with railways and electricity, it turns out that the visionaries who predicted that the Internet would transform the social and economic landscape were right. We now truly live in a connected world, in which information travels seamlessly around the world, and the daily operations of myriad types of business have been made more efficient through adopting the networks and communication tools of the online world.

And yet in the stock market, which embraced the arrival of technology, media and telecoms companies with such wild enthusiasm in the late 1990s, the story has been somewhat different. Only a handful of the companies which commanded lofty market capitalisations during the mania have come close to justifying their valuations. The great majority of market comets which lit up the sky back then simply crashed back to earth, many of them worthless. It took more than ten years for the quoted technology sector to regain its prior peak. The same was true for the Nasdaq index.

In the last five years, however, we have seen a strong renaissance, with the US stock market being led to new highs by newly powerful global companies which have emerged as the biggest winners of the transformative technology investors were so excited about in 2000. Ironically, two of the

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Forward Damask, 447

Fotheringay (syn. of Fotheringham), 212

Fotheringham, 212

Fourth of July (syn. of Lovett), 486

Fourth of July (syn. of Marble), 490

Francfort Peach; Frankfurter Pfirschen Zwetsche (syns. of Frankfort Peach), 447

Frankfort Peach, 447

Frankfurter Pflaume (syn. of Rudolph), 536

Frankland, Thomas, var. orig. by, 396

Franklin, 447

Franklin (syn. of Washington), 368

Fraser, 447

Fraser, John, var. orig. by, 447

Fraser’s Early Yellow (syn. of Fraser), 447

Frauendorfer Frühe Zwetsche (syn. of Quetsche Précoce De Frauendorf), 524

Freeman, 212, 447

Freeman, var. orig. by, 212

Freeman’s Favorite (syn. of Freeman), 447

Free Silver (syn. of Terry), 552

Freestone, 213, 447, 448.

Freestone Damson (syn. of Freestone), 213

Freestone Goose, 448

Freestone Quetsche, 448

French, 214

French (syn. of Agen), 138

French Apricot (syn. of Apricot), 148

French Copper (syn. of Copper), 183

French Damson (syn. of French), 214

French Orleans (syn. of Orleans), 302

French Prune (syn. of Agen), 138

French Royal (syn. of Royal), 534

French St. Julien (syn. of Saint Julien), 335

Freudenberger Früh Pflaume (syn. of Précoce de Freudenberg), 517

Friars (syn. of Violet Diaper), 365

Friar’s Plum (syn. of Violet Diaper), 365

Friedheim Damascene, 448

Friedheim’s Rote Früh Damascene (syn. of Friedheim Damascene), 448

Fritze Herrnpflaume, 448

Frogmore, 215

Frogmore Damson; Frogmore Prolific Damson (syns. of Frogmore), 215

Froment American (syn. of American Wheat), 395

Frost Gage, 216

Frost Plum (syn. of Frost Gage, 216; of White Damson, 374)

Frostproof, 448

Frühe Aprikosenpflaume (syn. of Early Apricot), 437

Frühe Dattelzwetsche (syn. of Hungarian), 246

Frühe Englische Zwetsche, 448

Frühe Fruchtbare (syn. of Early Rivers), 200

Frühe Gelbe Kaiser Pflaume (syn. of Apricot), 148

Frühe Gelbe Kaiser Pflaume (syn. of Frühe Gelbe Reine Claude), 448

Frühe Gelbe Reine Claude, 448

Frühe Gelbe Reine Claude (syn. of Transparente), 555

Frühe Gemeine Zwetsche (syn. of Wahre Frühzwetsche), 560

Frühe Grosse Schwarze Pflaume (syn. of Noire de Montreuil), 504

Frühe Grüne Zwetsche, 448

Frühe Haus Zwetsche (syn. of Wahre Frühzwetsche), 560

Frühe Herrnpflaume (syn. of Early Orleans), 198

Frühe Herrn Pflaume (syn. of Royal Tours), 332

Frühe Herrnpflaume (syn. of Early Orleans), 198

Frühe Herrnpflaume (syn. of Early Orleans), 198

Frühe Herzogspflaume (syn. of Early Orleans), 198

Frühe Königspflaume (syn. of Royale Hâtive de Liegel), 535

Frühe Königspflaume von Nikita (syn. of Early Royal of Nikita), 440

Frühe Leipziger Damascene, 448

Frühe Nikitaer Königspflaume (syn. of Early Royal of Nikita), 440

Frühe Platte Damascene (syn. of Morocco), 288

Frühe Reine-Claude (syn. of July Green Gage), 474

Früher Perdrigon; Früher Violetter Perdrigon (syns. of Early Perdrigon), 439

Frühe Schwarze Pflaume (syn. of Noire de Montreuil), 504

Frühe Schwarze Pflaume (syn. of Morocco), 288

Frühe Treibzwetsche; Frühe Treib Zwetsche (syns. of Red Magnum Bonum), 325

Frühe von Bergthold (syn. of Early Mirabelle), 439

Frühe Weisse Aprikosenpflaume (syn. of Diel Grosse Weisse Damascene), 432

Frühe Zwetsche (syn. of Wahre Frühzwetsche), 560

Früh Zwetsche (syn. of Red Date), 322

Frühzwetsche mit Silberblatt (syn. of Quetsche à feuille argentée), 523

Frühzwetsche von Buhlerthal (syn. of Quetsche Précoce de Buhlerthal), 524

Fuller, 448

Fuller’s Egg (syn. of Fuller), 448

Fulton, 448

Funk, 448

Funk, J. M., var. orig. by, 448

Funk’s Early (syn. of Funk), 448

Furst, 217

Fürst Damson, 448

Fürstenzeller Pflaume; Fürstenzeller Reine-Claude (syns. of Red Apricot), 321

Fürsten Zwetsche; Fürstenzwetsche (syns. of Imperatrice), 249

Fürst’s Damson (syn. of Fürst Damson), 448

Fürst’s Frühzwetsche (syn. of Furst), 217

Furugiya (syn. of Chabot), 172

Gabriel Combes, 449

Gage Verte (syn. of Reine Claude), 327

Galbraith, 449

Galbraith, var. orig. by, 449

Gale, 449

Galena, 449

Gale Seedling (syn. of Gale), 449

Gale’s No. 3 (syn. of Gale), 449

Gallesio, quoted, 28

Galopin, 449

Galopin, M., var. orig. by, 564

Garden King, 449

Garfield, 449

Garlick, 450

Garlick’s Early (syn. of Garlick), 450

Garnet (syn. of Occident), 295

Garnet, 450

Garriel, var. orig. by, 351

Garten Pflaume or Zwetsche (syns. of Quetsche Maraichère), 524

Gates, 450

Gaunt, 450

Gaviota, 450

Gaylord, 450

Gaylord, Edson, var. orig. by, 395, 453

Gaylord Gold, 450

Gelbe Apricosenartige Pflaume; Gelbe Aprikosenpflaume; Gelbe Dauphins (syns. of Apricot), 148

Gelbe Catharinenpflaume (syn. of Saint Catherine), 334

Gelbe Damascener Pflaume, 450

Gelbe Eger Pflaume; Gelbe Egg; Gelbe Eierpflaume (syns. of Yellow Egg), 386

Gelbe frühe Pflaume; Gelbe Frühzeitige (syns. of Early Yellow), 203

Gelbe Frühzwetsche (syn. of Quetsche Jaune Précoce), 524

Gelbe Herrn Pflaume (syn. of Yellow Impératrice), 569

Gelbe Jerusalempflaume, 450

Gelbe Katharinenpflaume (syn. of Saint Catherine), 334

Gelbe Kirschpflaume, 450

Gelbe Malonke (syn. of Yellow Egg), 386

Gelbe Marunke (syn. of Weisse Kaiserin, 563; of Yellow Egg, 386)

Gelbe Mirabelle (syn. of Mirabelle), 284

Gelber Bidling (syn. of Gemeiner Gelbe Spilling), 451

Gelbe Reine-Claude (syn. of Apricot), 148

Gelbe Reneclode Mit Gefullter Bluthe (syn. of Double Flowering Gage), 192

Gelbe Spatzwetsche, 451

Gelbe Ungarische Eier Pflaume; Gelbe Ungarische Eyerpflaume (syns. of Yellow Egg), 386

Gem, 451

Gemeine Hauszwetsche (syn. of German Prune), 219

Gemeiner Gelbe Spilling, 451

Gemeine Zwetsche (syn. of German Prune), 219

General Brock (syn. of Brock), 410

Gen. Hand; General Hand; Genl. Hand (syns. of Hand), 239

General Jackson (syn. of Miner), 281

Gentleman, 451

Georgeson, 217

Georgeson, C. C., quoted, 55

Georg IV (syn. of Rigny), 532

Georgia, 451

Geperlte Mirabelle (syn. of Mirabelle), 284

Gerard, quoted, 162

Gerishes Seedling, 451

German Gage (syn. of Bleeker), 163

German Plum (syn. of German Prune), 219

German Prune, 219

German Prune (syn. of Domine Dull, 433; of German Prune, 219; of Italian Prune, 253)

German Prune Seedling (syn. of Mankato), 489

German Quetsche (syn. of German Prune), 219

Gersepflaume, 451

Geuii (syn. of Gueii), 234

Ghiston, 451

Ghiston’s Early (syn. of Ghiston), 451

Giant, 222

Giant Prune (syn. of Giant), 222

Gibb, Charles, var. orig. by, 395, 483

Gibson, 451

Gibson, W. L., var. orig. by, 451

Gideon, Peter M., var. orig. by, 470

Gifford, var. introduced by, 261

Gifford’s Lafayette (syn. of Lafayette), 261

Gill, 451

Gillett (syn. of Miner), 281

Gisborne, 451

Gisborne’s; Gisborne’s Early; Gisborne’s Zwetsche (syns. of Gisborne), 451

Glaister, 452

Glanzende Gelbe Mirabelle (syn. of Drap d’Or), 194

Glass, 223

Glass, Alexander, var. orig. by, 224

Glass Seedling (syn. of Glass), 223

Gloire de Louveciennes, 452

Gloire de New York (syn. of Hulings), 245

Gloire de Schöneberg (syn. of Belle de Schöneberg), 401

Gloire d’Epinay, 452

Gloria, 452

Gloucestershire Violet, 452

Glow, 452

Gluhende Kohle (syn. of Red Diaper), 323

G. No. 4, 452

G. No. 44 Jones (unpublished) (syn. of G. No. 4), 452

Goff, 452

Goff, Emmett Stull, life of, 355-356

Gold, 452

Gold (syn. of Golden), 224

Gold Coin, 453

Gold Colored, 453

Golden, 224

Golden (syn. of Golden Prune), 453

Golden (syn. of Gold), 452

Golden Beauty, 226

Golden Cherry, 228

Golden Cherry Plum (syn. of Golden Cherry), 228

Golden Cluster, 453

Golden Drop, 228

Golden Drop; Golden Drop Plum; Golden Gage (syns. of Golden Drop), 228

Golden Esperen (syn. of Esperen), 206

Golden Esperen Plum (syn. of Esperen), 206

Golden Gage, 453

Golden Gage Lawson (syn. of Lawson), 482

Golden Gem, 453

Golden Prolific, 453

Golden Prune, 453

Golden Queen, 453

Golden Transparent, 453

Gold Pflaume; Goldfarbige Pflaume (syns. of Drap d’Or), 194

Goldsmith, 454

Goldsmith’s Vienna (syn. of Goldsmith), 454

Goldstoff (syn. of Drap d’Or), 194

Goldzeng (syn. of Drap d’Or), 194

Goliath (syn. of Goliath, 231; of Nectarine, 291)

Goliath, 231

Gondin, 454

Gonne, 454

Gonne, Dr., var. orig. by, 454

Gonne’s Green Gage (syn. of Small Reine Claude), 347

Gonne’s Rothe Pflaume (syn. of Gonne), 454

Gonzales (syn. of Gonzales), 232

Gonzales, 232

Goose-Dye, 454

Goose-O, 454

Goose Plum, 59

Gordon, 454

Gordon, J. K., var. orig. by, 410, 564

Gordon Castle, 454

Gordon No. 3 (syn. of Gordon), 454

Goring’s Golden Gage (syn. of Reine Claude), 327

Gorman, 454

Gorrie, Archibald, var. orig. by, 482

Gough, quoted, 164

Goutte d’Or, 228; Goutte d’Or de Coe, 229 (syns. of Golden Drop)

Goutte d’Or Violette (syn. of Coe Violet), 420

Goutte Emeraude (syn. of Emerald Drop), 443

Govalle, 454

Grace, 454

Grace, W. R., var. orig. by, 454

Graf Althann’s Reine-Claude; Graf Althan’s Reine-Claude (syns. of Altham), 141

Graf Gustav von Egger (syn. of Comte Gustave d’Egger), 422

Grand-Duc (syn. of Grand Duke), 233

Grand Duke, 233

Grand Précoce, 454

Graugrüne Frühpflaume, 455

Gray, quoted, 99

Gray Damask, 455

Grayson, 455

Great Bearer, 455

Great Damask Violet of Tours (syn. of Gros Damas de Tours), 456

Great Date (syn. of Date), 428

Great Green Damask; Great Green Damaski (syns. of Reine Claude), 327

Great Imperial Plum (syn. of Red Magnum Bonum), 325

Great Mogul (syn. of Yellow Egg), 386

Great Plum of Tours; Great Violet Damask de Tours; Great Violet Tours Damask (syns. of Gros Damas de Tours), 456

Great Queen Claudia (syn. of Reine Claude), 327

Great Whitton (syn. of Wheat), 563

Greeley (syn. of Greely), 455

Greely, 455

Greely, Captain Eliphalet, var. orig. by, 455

Green Damask (syn. of Mirabelle), 284

Greene, quoted, 77

Greenfield, 455

Greenfield, var. orig. by, 455

Green Gage (syn. of Reine Claude), 327

Green Gage (syn. of Reine Claude Group), 27

Green Indian, 455

Green Italian, 455

Green Oysterly, 455

Green Perdrigon, 455

Green Pescod, 455

Green Spanish (syn. of Reine Claude), 327

Gregoire, M., var. orig. by, 412

Grelck, John, var. orig. by, 455

Grelck, 455

Gridley, var. orig. by, 553

Griesa, A. H., var. orig. by, 512

Grimwood Early Orleans; Grimwood’s Early Orleans (syns. of Early Orleans), 198

Groot, S. C., var. introduced by, 320

Gros Damas; Gros Damas de Tours; Gros Damas Violet de Tours (syns. of Gros Damas de Tours), 456

Gros Damas Blanc (syn. of Large White Damson), 480

Gros Damas de Tours (syn. of Early Tours), 202

Gros Damas de Tours, 456

Gros Damas Noir, 456

Gros Damas rouge tardif (syn. of Late Red Damask), 481

Gros Damas Vert (syn. of Reine Claude), 327

Gros Luisante (syn. of Yellow Egg), 386

Gros Prune (syn. of Pond), 314

Gros Reine-Claude (syn. of Reine Claude), 327

Gros Rouge de Septembre (syn. of Belle), 158

Gros Saint-Julien (syn. of Saint Julien), 335

Gros-Damas Blanc (syn. of Diel Grosse Weisse Damascene), 432

Grosse à sécher de Knight (syn. of Large Green Drying), 479

Grosse Blaue Eier Pflaume (syn. of Blue Egg), 405

Grosse Blaue Zwetsche Von der Worms (syn. of Zwetsche Von der Worms), 572

Grosse Damascene von Tours (syn. of Gros Damas de Tours), 456

Grosse Datte (syn. of Yellow Egg), 386

Grosse De Cooper (syn. of Cooper), 423

Grosse Englische Pflaumen Zwetsche; Grosse Englische Zwetsche (syns. of Large English), 262

Grosse Früh Pflaume (syn. of Noire de Montreuil), 504

Grosse Früh Zwetsche (syn. of Hungarian, 246; of Italian Prune, 253; of Red Magnum Bonum, 325)

Grosse Gelbe Dattel Pflaume; Grosse Gelbe Dattel Zwetsche (syns. of Weisse Kaiserin), 563

Grosse Gelbe Eier Pflaume (syn. of Yellow Egg), 386

Grosse German Prune (syn. of German Prune), 219

Grosse Glanzende; Grosse Glanzende Alberts Pflaume; Grosse Glanzende Pflaume (syns. of Yellow Egg), 386

Grosse Grüne Pflaume (syn. of Isle-Verte), 470

Grosse Grüne Reine-Claude (syn. of Reine Claude), 327

Grosse Hâtive de Rodt, 456

Grosse Hâtive de Rodt (syn. of Rodt Frühe Grosse Pflaumenzwetsche), 533

Grosse Hauspflaume (syn. of German Prune), 219

Grosse Königin Claudiapflaume (syn. of Reine Claude), 327

Grosse-Luisante (syn. of Yellow Egg), 386

Grosse Marange, 456

Grosse Maronke; Grosse Marouk; Grosse Marunke (syns. of Yellow Egg), 386

Grosse Mirabelle (syn. of Drap d’Or), 194

Grosse Mirabelle Drap d’Or (syn. of Drap d’Or), 194

Grosse noir de Montreuil; Grosse Noire hâtive (syns. of Noire de Montreuil), 504

Grosse Prune Blanche (syn. of Yellow Egg), 386

Grosse Prune d’Agen (syn. of Pond), 314

Grosse prune d’Inde rouge (syn. of Indian), 468

Grosse Prunelle Nouvelle (syn. of New Large Bullace), 503

Grosse Quetsche De Dorell; Grosse Quetsche Nouvelle (syns. of Dorell), 434

Grosse Reine; Grosse Reine-Claude (syns. of Reine Claude), 327

Grosse Reine-Claude Verte De Berlepsch (syn. of Berlepsch), 402

Grosse Rosspauke, 456

Grosse Rote Feigen Pflaume (syn. of Red Date), 322

Grosse rouge de Cooper (syn. of Cooper), 423

Grosse Schwarze Kaiser Pflaume (syn. of Bradshaw), 166

Grosse Surpasse, 456

Grosse u. Lange Früh Zwetsche (syn. of Hungarian), 246

Grosse Ungarische Zwetsche (syn. of Red Magnum Bonum), 325

Grosse Violette de Grugliasco, 456

Grosse Weisse Glanzende (syn. of Yellow Egg), 386

Grosse Zuckerzwetsche (syn. of Large Sugar Prune), 480

Grosse Zwetsche (syn. of Large English), 262

Grossherzog’s Pflaume (syn. of Grand Duke), 233

Groundacre (syn. of Gundaker Prune), 457

Grove House Purple (syn. of Fotheringham), 212

Grüne Abrikose or Aprikose (syn. of Reine Claude), 327

Grüne Dattelzwetsche (syn. of Grüne Dattel Zwetsche), 456

Grüne Dattel Zwetsche, 456

Grüne Eierpflaume (syn. of Quetsche Verte D’Italie), 525

Grüne Herzformige, 456

Grüne Inselpflaume (syn. of Isle-Verte), 470

Grüne Insel Pflaume (syn. of Grüne Dattel Zwetsche), 456

Grüne Mirabelle (syn. of Mirabelle Verte), 497

Grüne Reineclaude (syn. of Reine Claude), 327

Grüne Zwetsche (syn. of Quetsche Verte D’Italie), 525

Grüne Zwetsche Von Monrepos, 456

Grünliche Dattel Pflaume von Besançon (syn. of Yellow Egg), 386

Gueii, 234

Gueii; Guii (syns. of Gueii), 234

Guilford No. 2, 456

Guimaraen, 457

Guinea Egg, 457

Gundaker, 457

Gundaker, Samuel E., var. orig. by, 457

Gundaker Prune, 457

Gus Erik (syn. of Nikitaer Blaue Frühzwetsche), 504

Gute Grüne (syn. of Reine Claude), 327

Gute Kathe (syn. of Saint Catherine), 334

Guthries Taybank (syn. of Taybank), 551

Guthrie, Charles, var. orig. by, 236, 397, 457, 551

Guthrie Apricot, 457

Guthrie Green (syn. of Guthrie Late), 236

Guthrie Late, 236

Guthrie Russet, 457

Guthrie Topaz, 457

Guthrie’s Apricot; Guthrie’s Apricot Plum; Guthrie’s Golden; Guthrie’s New Apricot (syns. of Guthrie Apricot), 457

Guthrie’s Aunt Ann (syn. of Aunt Ann), 397

Guthrie’s Late Green; Guthrie’s Minette (syns. of Guthrie Late), 236

Guthrie’s Russet (syn. of Guthrie Russet), 457

Guthrie’s Topaz (syn. of Guthrie Topaz), 457

Gwalsh, 457

Gweii (syn. of Gueii), 234

Haag, 458

Haber Pflaume (syn. of Damson), 186

Hackl, Prof. Pater, var. orig. by, 217

Hackl Grosse Zwetsche, 458

Haferpflaume, 458

Hafer Schlehe (syn. of Damson), 186

Haferkrieche (syn. of Damas Rouge Hâtif), 427

Haffner Herbstpflaume, 458

Haffner Königspflaume, 458

Hagaman, var, orig. by, 235

Hahnenhode (syn. of Nikitaer Hahnenpflaume), 504

Hakluyt, quoted, 164

Haku Botan, 458

Hale, 236

Hale (syn. of Late Blood), 480

Hallenbeck, 458

Hallenbeck, Henry, var. orig. by, 458

Halcyon, 458

Hammer, 238

Hammond, quoted, 75

Hampton Court (syn. of Early Orleans), 198

Hancock, Thomas, var. orig. by, 457

Hand, 239

Hand, General, var. orig. by, 240

Hanford, 458

Hanford’s Orleans (syn. of Hanford), 458

Hanska, 458

Hanson, 458

Hanson, N. E., quoted, 116, 117; var. orig. by, 417, 419, 444, 458, 468, 474, 489, 509, 539, 544, 561, 567, 571

Happiness, 458

Hardow, P. L., var. orig. by, 296

Hare, Thomas, var. orig. by, 209

Harlow, 458

Harlow, S. C., var. orig. by, 458

Harney, 459

Harper, 459

Harper (syn. of Imperial Gage), 251

Harper’s (syn. of Harper), 459

Harriet, 241, 459

Harris, 459

Harrison, 459

Harrison’s Peach (syn. of Harrison), 459

Hart, 459

Hart, H., var. orig. by, 459

Hart Prune (syn. of Bradshaw), 166

Hart’s De Soto (syn. of Hart), 459

Hartwick, 459

Hartwiss, 459

Hartwiss Gelbe Zwetsche; Hartwiss Yellow Prune (syns. of Hartwiss), 459

Harvest, 460

Harvest Gage (syn. of Yellow Gage), 388

Hathen’s Red Gage (syn. of Altham), 141

Hâtive d’Augny (syn. of Grosse Marange), 456

Hâtive de Tours (syn. of Early Tours), 202

Hattan; Hattankin No. 2; Hattonkin; Hattonkin No. 2; Hattankio; Hattankio No. 2; Hattankio Oblong; Hytan-Kayo; Hytankio

(syns. of Kerr), 259

Hattankin No. 1 (syn. of Georgeson), 218

Hattonkin (syn. of Georgeson), 218

Hattankio (syn. of Abundance), 136

Hattonkin No. 1 (syn. of Georgeson), 218

Hattankio (syn. of Georgeson), 218

Hattankio (syn. of Abundance), 136

Hattankio (syn. of Kelsey), 258

Hattankio No. 1 (syn. of Georgeson), 218

Hattie, 460

Hauptmann Kirchhof’s Pflaume (syn. of Capitaine Kirchhof), 414

Hauspflaume; Hauszwetsche (syns. of German Prune), 219

Hawkeye, 242

Hayden, E. L., var. orig. by, 441

Hayo-Simoni, 460

Hazard, 460

Hazelton, D. C., var. orig. by, 140

Heaton, 460

Hector, 460

Heep, 460

Heideman, C. W. H., var. orig. by, 294, 415

Heideman Sand Cherry (syn. of Compass), 182

Heikes, 460

Heine Superbe, 460

Helen, 460

Helen’s Seedling (syn. of Helen), 460

Hendrick, 460

Hendrick’s (syn. of Hendrick), 460

Henrietta Gage (syn. of Henrietta Gage), 461

Henrietta Gage, 461

Henry Clay, 461

Herbst Kriecke, 461

Herbstpflaume, 461

Herbstpflaume (syn. of Prune d’Automne), 520

Herbst Reine Claude (syn. of Autumn Gage), 398

Hereford Damson, 461

Herefordshire Prune, 461

Heron, 461

Heroy, 461

Herren, 461

Herrnpflaume (syn. of Orleans), 302

Herrenhäuser Blaue Eier Pflaume (syn. of Large Sugar Prune), 480

Herrnhauser Doppelte Mirabelle (syn. of Mirabelle Double de Herrenhausen), 497

Herzformige Pflaume, 461

Herzog von Orleans (syn. of Orleans), 302

Heupflaume, 461

Herr Pflaume (syn. of Frühe Grüne Zwetsche), 448

Hiawatha, 461

Hick’s large Egg? (syn. of Yellow Egg), 386

Higginson, Francis, quoted, 20, 93

Highland, 461