EUROPE CRE 180 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK REAL ESTATE PERSPECTIVES
GLOBAL RESEARCH January 2022
E X E C U T I V E S U M M A RY
EUROPE CRE 180
IN A NUTSHELL
CONTENTS 1 2
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK REAL ESTATE PERSPECTIVES
4
11
2
E X E C U T I V E S U M M A RY IN A NUTSHELL
ECONOMIC GROWTH IS EASING IN THE EUROZONE A normalization in growth is expected in Europe, with household spending underpinned by cheap financing conditions, a further improvement in the labour market and faster wage growth. Stronger supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures may have a negative impact on 2022.
A NORMALIZATION OF INFLATION AND MONETARY POLICY Most of this inflationary surge is still transitory, but that does not mean that we expect it to ease rapidly. This implies that monetary policy will normalize as well, but with important differences in timing, with the Fed and the BoE moving first.
INVESTMENT BACK TO PRE COVID-19 LEVELS €272.7bn was invested in Europe over 2021, which represents a 15% increase vs 2020, in line with the pre-Covid-19 levels. Investment in logistics (+51%) reached an all-time high while office (+10%) and hotel (+33%) investments are on the road to recovery. However retail investment (-7%) continues its descent.
YIELD COMPRESSION RESUMED
OFFICE: VERY DYNAMIC Q3 AND Q4
PRIME RENTS UNAFFECTED BY THE CRISIS
After drawing to a halt during 2020, office prime yields froze all over Europe, but they seem to be narrowing again. Prime retail yields also froze and are now expanding again in some markets. Prime logistics yields, on the other hand, continually decreased during the crisis. Compression accelerated from Q2 2021 and is ongoing.
Take-up at the end of 2021 saw a significant increase (+27%) compared to last year. Slightly more than 10 million sqm was taken-up last year. Even though the pre-covid levels are not reached, take-up showed signs of normalisation in Q3 and Q4.
Despite the slowdown in take-up, the prime market segment did not suffer from the crisis. In many markets, prime rental values are now even standing at higher values than before the outbreak of the pandemic.
3
EUROPE CRE 180
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
COVID-19: WHERE ARE WE? NEW
COVID
CASES ARE
RISING
New COVID-19 case numbers continue to rise sharply
SHARPLY
The weekly number of new Covid-19 cases remains very high in most regions because of the Omicron variant. 21.2 million new cases were reported in the week of 10-17 January.
25
140 000 120 000
20
100 000 80 000
15
60 000
10
40 000
5
20 000 0
0 2020
2021
Millions
Number of weekly deaths and confirmed cases
Oceania Europe (inc. UK) Latin America Asia North America Africa World - Confirmed cases (rhs)
2022
To date, 9.57 billion Covid-19 vaccine doses have been administered worldwide since vaccination campaigns began in the fourth quarter of 2020, including 813 million booster doses.
60% 50%
Nearly 60% of the world’s population has now received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine. However, there are still substantial disparities between rich nations, where 77% of the population has received at least one dose, and low-income countries (8%).
40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
On a weekly basis, the highest number of new cases in a single country was in the USA (6,178,670). France was next with 2,006,679 cases (+15.7%), followed by India (1,672,526), Italy (827,805), Spain (784,598) and the UK (599,966).
Vaccination levels are high
Vaccination around the World (Share of the population fully vaccinated)
70%
The largest weekly increases were recorded in Asia (+95.7%), followed by North America (40%), Europe (6.7%). Africa experienced a decrease in the number of cases (-16.4%).
South America
Europe
North America
Asia
Oceania
Africa
On the mobility front, visits to retail and leisure facilities remain on a downward trend in Germany, Belgium, Italy, France, Spain, the US and the UK. 5
PURCHASING MANAGER INDEX SURVEYS A BROAD
IMPROVEMENT
Index
OF
BUSINESS
CONFIDENCE
Manufacturing
70
Services
60 50 40 30 20 10
Germany
France
Italy
Spain
United Kingdom
0 06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Sources: Markit, BNP Paribas Economic Research.
Numerous headwinds are constraining growth prospects in the Eurozone. Supply bottlenecks and supply disruption have been dominant themes throughout the year, acting as a headwind to growth, both directly but also indirectly, by causing a pick-up in inflation to levels not seen in decades Nevertheless, business conditions surveys have shown resilience so far. Indeed, company investments should benefit from improved profitability, very attractive financing conditions, increased capacity utilization and a favourable demand outlook. Although the downside risks have increased, our scenario for 2022 remains fairly optimistic.
6
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK WHAT
OUTLOOK
FOR
THE
MAIN
2022: A normalization in growth
ECONOMIES?
In the advanced economies, we expect above potential growth in real GDP, with household spending underpinned by cheap financing conditions, a further improvement in the labour market and faster wage growth.
World GDP Oil crisis (1973)
8%
Oil crisis (1979)
Dot-com bubble (2000-2001)
Covid-19 (2020)
Great recession (2008)
6%
However, concern about the Omicron variant may lead to precautionary behaviour, weighing on certain household spending categories, slowing again the economic recovery.
4% 2% 0%
Finally, in several countries, household surveys reflect a growing concern about elevated inflation, which is eroding real disposable income. This is particularly an issue for lower income households.
-2% -4%
71
73
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
GDP Growth in European countries France
10%
Germany
Italy
Poland
Growth eases in the Eurozone Spain
United Kingdom
After another quarter of vigorous growth (2.2% q/q in Q3), the Q4 outlook is much less attractive (0.4% q/q). We nonetheless estimate that full-year growth in the Eurozone will average 5% in 2021.
5% 0%
Stronger supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures should have a negative impact on 2022. Yet the main characteristic of growth in 2022 is that it will hold well above its long term trend.
-5% -10% -15%
In 2023, growth is expected to remain strong. 00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
Sources: BNP Paribas Real Estate, OECD.
7
GDP GROWTH IN EUROPE GROWTH
An optimistic scenario
EASES
Growth in the Eurozone remained strong in Q3 2021, in line with expectations (2.2% q/q). However, the outlook for Q4 is much less bright (we expect growth to slow down to 0.4% q/q).
FINLAND
-2.7
2.7
SWEDEN
FORECAST (%):
2021
2022
2023
World
5.6
4.8
3.8
United States
5.5
4.7
2.8
Euro area
5.0
4.2
3.0
Japan
1.7
China India
7.9 8.0
2.6 5.3 11.0
-1.3
1.8
Brazil
4.8
0.5
2.0
4.5
2.8
15.2
4.6
UNITED KINGDOM
7.1
POLAND
NETHERLANDS
5.4
4.1 6.1
5.2
2.9 3.1
6.7
CZ. REPUBLIC
2.9
2.9
5.1
AUSTRIA
SWITZERLAND
4.2
4.3
HUNGARY
6.8
5.1
4.5
ROMANIA
7.7 PORTUGAL
4.4
ITALY
4.6
6.3 SPAIN
4.3
5.4
Albeit in a rather uneven manner, the US economy has bounced back swiftly from the Covid-19 pandemic and is now stronger than in 2019. Its growth rate, at 5.5% in 2021, is likely to return gradually to normal.
3.6
2.9
BELGIUM FRANCE
5.3
GERMANY
2.6
4.9
3.0
However, in addition to the awaited normalization, headwinds have increased (supply-side problems, surging inflation and uncertainties arising from the new wave of the pandemic). Nevertheless, business conditions surveys have shown resilience so far. Although the downside risks have increased, our scenario for 2022 remains fairly optimistic.
IRELAND
6.0
3.0
RUSSIA
3.4
3.9
5.5
4.5
4.3
DENMARK
1.6
Russia
-2.9
NORWAY
4.7
In the US, the Federal Reserve has started tapering and this should lead to net asset purchases ending in March this year. In the Eurozone, the ECB has announced in December that it will stop net purchases under the PEPP in March 2022. Given the strength of the recovery, we expect underlying price pressures to build further and the ECB should increase its deposit rate in June 2023.
Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate Research.
8
FINANCIAL OUTLOOK ECONOMIC AND
FINANCIAL
INDICATORS 3%
6%
5% 4,7% 4,6%
4,5%
2,1%
2,5%
2,1%
2,5%
3,1%
1%
2,0%
1,3% 0,2%
0,1%
21
22
23
21
22
United States
23
21
UK
22
-1%
23
21
22
23
21
United States
Euro
%
-0,1%
-0,5%
0%
1% 0%
1,9%
2%
4%
2%
Covid-induced supply bottlenecks are still a dominant theme and caused a pick-up in inflation to levels not seen in decades.
Policy rates
Inflation
3%
A normalization of inflation and monetary policy
22
23
UK
21
22
23
Euro
Government bond yields
8
Poland
6
Italy
4
Spain
2
UK
0 -2
France
07
08
09
10
11
12
Sources: BNP Paribas Economic Research, OECD.
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
Germany
The main central banks in Western economies are arguing that the shock is mainly transitory. However, transitory does not necessarily mean ‘short lived’ and some forecasters are now considering a scenario in which inflation and upward pressure on wages could last. Indeed, the underlying dynamics of inflation are upwards, with an acceleration of wage growth, which could push companies to increase their sales prices. This implies that monetary policy will normalize as well, but with important differences in timing. In the US, the Federal Reserve has started to slow down the pace of monthly asset purchases and it should be followed by several rate hikes, starting around the mid 2022. In the Euro area, monetary policy should remain very accommodative. If the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme is expected to end in March 2022, we only expect a first increase of the deposit rate in June 2023. The monetary divergence between the Fed and the ECB should cause a further strengthening of the dollar versus the euro. 9
FINANCIAL OUTLOOK INFLATION
IS
Oil
Index
RISING AROUND Gas
Food
THE
Commodities (exc. Energy)
Most goods and services are impacted by supply bottlenecks
WORLD Shipping rates (rhs)
Index
600
4500 4000
500 3500 400
3000 2500
300 2000 200
1500 1000
100
The world economy is experiencing multiple supply shocks: oil, gas, semiconductors, other materials, labour shortages. Some of these should be transitory because rooted in supply chain disruption; others will probably be permanent. Most of this inflationary surge is still transitory, but that does not mean that we expect it to ease rapidly. Inflationary pressures due to supply-demand imbalances will take a while to dissipate. Indeed, with the rebound in global demand, consumer prices have accelerated rather sharply in recent months, and these pricing dynamics extended into H2 2021. According to our latest scenario, this inflationary surge is unlikely to last. This is also the ECB’s point of view. The European Central Bank expects inflation to peak this year. According to its latest macroeconomic projections, headline inflation will rise to 3.1% in 2022 (after +2.5% in 2021) before declining to 2.0% in 2023.
500 0
0 01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Sources: IMF, Harper Petersen, ICE, BNP Paribas Real Estate
10
EUROPE CRE 180
REAL ESTATE PERSPECTIVES
EUROPE CRE 180
REAL ESTATE PERSPECTIVES COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT MARKETS
I N V E S T M E N T I N C O M M E R C I A L R E A L E S TAT E I N E U R O P E BREAKDOWN
OF
INVESTMENT
BY ASSET
€bn
2021 vs 2020
350 300
273
+15%
100
106
+10%
50
37
-7%
250 200 150
0 08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
70 60 50
65
+51%
51
+5%
13
+33%
40
CLASS INVESTMENT BACK AT PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS After an all-time high in Q1 2020 (€319bn over 12 months), investment plummeted over 2020 and reached its lowest point at Q1 2021 (€212bn), 12% below the 5-year average. Investment was inhibited by the lockdowns all over Europe, travel restrictions as well as hesitation from institutional investors that adopted a wait-and-see attitude. Investment traction restored from Q2 2021 (€242bn) as European countries gradually took control of the outbreak mainly through vaccination and with the help of the summer lull in virus transmission. Q2 2021 (+70% vs Q2 2020) saw a strong impulse in investment, while the increase in Q3 and Q4 2021 (+29% and +22%) was moderate, almost reaching the average of the previous years. Most asset classes are affected by this turn of events, in positive or negative ways. Logistics profited from greater trust shown in ecommerce expansion. Office investment improvement is balanced as teleworking put a clear divide between modern and older units. Retail investment seems to have flattened with the sector becoming more opportunistic in character.
30 20 10 0 08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Commercial real estate
Industrial & logistics
Office
Hotel
Retail
Other This excludes residential investment.
13
C O M M E R C I A L R E A L E S TAT E I N V E S T M E N T 2021 vs 2020 +7%
GERMANY UNITED KINGDOM
FINLAND
4.4
+21%
FRANCE
-8%
NETHERLANDS
-8%
15.8
SPAIN
+31%
POLAND
+15%
IRELAND
+84%
3.2
11.5 3.1
BELGIUM FRANCE
CZECH REPUBLIC
+47%
LUXEMBOURG
+7%
26.7
≥ €50bn
€5-10bn
€20-50bn
€1-5bn
€10-20bn
< €1bn
64.1
1.9
5.7 CZECH REP.
2.0
1.2
AUSTRIA
SWITZERLAND
2.8
2.5
• €272.7bn was invested in Europe over 2021, which represents a 15% increase vs 2020, in line with the preCovid-19 levels.
POLAND
GERMANY
SLOVAKIA
0.9 HUNGARY
1.2
ROMANIA
0.9
SOUTH EAST EUROPE ITALY
8.7
PORTUGAL
(excludes residential investment)
67.0
NETHERLANDS
LUX.
-44%
BELGIUM
1.4
6.0 UNITED KINGDOM
+15% vs 2020
BALTICS
DENMARK IRELAND
€272.7bn
SWEDEN
24.6
+4%
ITALY
EUROPE – 2021
NORWAY
1.7
SPAIN
10.0
• However, a closer look at European countries shows geographical variance. The improvement in the United Kingdom, Germany, Sweden and Spain marked the rising trend. Investment levels in some other countries such as France, the Netherlands or Belgium are still below those of 2020.
Source : BNP Paribas Real Estate
14
C O M M E R C I A L R E A L E S TAT E I N V E S T M E N T V O L U M E PROPERTY
REMAINS AN ATTRACTIVE ASSET TO
BUY
CRE Investment volume (€ billion) €bn 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20
67 64
UNITED KINGDOM
51 45
NORDICS
GERMANY
ADVISORY 8 COUNTRIES
27
FRANCE
19
OTHER
10 0 08
09
10
11
Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate Research.
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Advisory 8 countries: Belgium, Czech Republic, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Poland, Spain.
There is no comparison between the impact of the current crisis on investment volumes and that of the global financial crisis of 2008/9 throughout Europe. Volumes remain high, as today’s credit conditions are not tight, and investors don't expect major deflation in prices in most markets for secure assets. Cash is there and definitely king over the current period. All countries are trending up except for France, which remained flat over 2021. The United Kingdom benefited from its advanced vaccination campaign and from the postBrexit dynamic as investors returned to the market. It is back in top place among European countries despite a weaker Q4. Northern Europe suffered the least from the pandemic, and is even experiencing a surge in investor interest, with Sweden and Norway reaching all-time highs. 15
INVESTMENT BY SIZE BAND MEGA DEALS MORE IMPACTED BY THE CRISIS •
•
•
Mega deals (>€100m) volume in Q1 2020 reached a record figure of €155bn (on a rolling-year basis), which represents 48% of the total investment, an unusually big share for a Q1. Mega deals had been on the rise from mid-2019. The volume of mega deals dropped from Q2 2020 and only reached €89bn at Q1 2021 on a rolling-year basis, down -43% vs the 12 months to Q1 2020 figure, versus -33% for total investment. The situation improved for mega deals too over the rest of 2021, albeit more slowly than for the other deal size segments. Big deals are more complicated and require a longer process before signature. The signature is a legal formality for a deal already done. This may explain why the corona virus outbreak initially impacted smaller deals. The process for small deals is easier to terminate. Yet as the crisis went on, the momentum behind closing big deals diminished because of the mobility problems of lockdown. With travel becoming easier, this segment maybe gaining traction again, although it will possibly be the slowest to restore full market normality.
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Europe Total and >€100m size band - volume and share €bn 350 300 250
273
TOTAL INVESTMENT
112
>€100M DEALS
200 150 100 50 0
35%
08
30%
09
34%
10
35%
11
41%
12
43%
13
45%
14
47%
15
41%
16
43%
17
42%
18
46%
19
46%
20
41%
21
Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate.
16
CROSS-BORDER INVESTMENT MARKET • Foreign investment was hindered by the spread of the virus through Europe. In spring 2020, most foreign investors delayed their ongoing deals until Europe was open again. Over the twelve months to Q1 2021, foreign investment plummeted (-38% vs Q1 2020), although the situation improved over the rest of 2021. • Within foreign investment, European cross-border investment was less affected which makes sense as nearby deals were easier to do during the lockdowns. It increased by 7% in 2021 vs 2020. • Conversely, investment from other continents was hit hard by the crisis. But the post crisis period seems to be differing from one continent to the next. • On the one hand, American investors showed strong interest in the European market in 2021. With more than €41bn spent over the year, American investment is back to pre-crisis levels. • On the other hand, investors from Asia Pacific and Middle East don’t seem to be as active in their European investments. They represented respectively 8% and 4% of foreign investment, which is very low considering Asians represented around 20% of foreign investment back in 2019. • As observed in 2009, the reduction in cross-border deals in Europe was somewhat compensated by domestic investment during the pandemic. But as restrictions eased, foreign investment resumed much more strongly than expected.
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Europe Total, foreign and domestic investment €bn 350 300
273
TOTAL INVESTMENT
150
141
DOMESTIC
100
132
FOREIGN
250 200
50 0 08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Commercial Real Estate Investment in Europe Foreign investment detail €bn 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
55 42
EUROPE
10 5
ASIA PACIFIC MIDDLE EAST
AMERICA
21
17
AV E R A G E P R I M E Y I E L D S I N E U R O P E BASED
ON
15
MARKETS
8% 7%
After drawing to a halt during 2020, office prime yields froze all over Europe, but they seem to be narrowing again.
6% 5%
3,60% 3,40%
4% 3%
3,20%
2% 1% 0%
-0,21%
Prime retail yields also froze and are now expanding again in some markets. Prime logistics yields, on the other hand, boosted by the scarcity of assets, continually decreased during the crisis. Compression accelerated from Q2 2021 and is ongoing.
-1% 2009
2010
2011
Office
2012
2013
2014
High Street Retail
2015
2016
2017
Logistics
2018
2019
2020
10-year Bund
2021 Based on 16 cities: Amsterdam, Berlin, Brussels, London, Paris, Dublin, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Lisbon, Luxembourg, Madrid, Milan, Munich, Prague, Vienna and Warsaw.
Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate Research.
18
PRIME OFFICE YIELDS
The downward trend in office prime yields, ongoing for several years, slowed or ceased in most markets in 2020. Yet they kept narrowing in most European cities.
Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020 BERLIN
-15bp
HELSINKI
=
PARIS AMSTERDAM MADRID MILAN
OSLO
LUXEMBOURG BRUSSELS DUBLIN
5.00 DUBLIN
4.00
-25bp
3-4%
>6%
HAMBURG
2.40
2.65 MUNICH
2.70
4.50
MADRID
3.10
3.35 LYON
BARCELONA
MARSEILLE
VILNIUS
4.70
WARSAW
THE HAGUE
BUDAPEST
VIENNA
3.90
3.10
4.25 3.00
PARIS
TOULOUSE
PRAGUE
2.50
LILLE
5.25
BERLIN
FRANKFURT
3.25
RIGA
3.25
2.55
LONDON
4.15
4.00
4-6%
COPENHAGEN
4.75
BIRMINGHAM
LISBON
≤ 3%
4.50
=
+10bp
5.80
EDINBURGH
-65bp
WARSAW
5.50
TALLINN
MANCHESTER
4.75
-30bp
-25bp
3.00
GLASGOW
-40bp
PRAGUE
3.10
STOCKHOLM
3.25
=
-10bp
LONDON
With reopening, most European markets are now back to prime office yield compression, except for Paris, Amsterdam and Dublin where they remained stable while it was expanding in Warsaw.
5.25
BUCHAREST
6.80
4.80
AMSTERDAM
3.10 4.30
ROTTERDAM
3.10
MILAN
3.25
3.50
ROME
BRUSSELS ATHENS
6.00
DÜSSELDORF
2.75
2.60
COLOGNE
3.40 LUXEMBOURG
Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate
19
EUROPE CRE 180
REAL ESTATE PERSPECTIVES OFFICE MARKETS
O F F I C E TA K E - U P I N E U R O P E – 2 0 2 1 18
MAIN
EUROPEAN
OFFICE
MARKETS*
thousand sqm 12 000 Average: 9,415
10 000
y.o.y. +27%
8 000 6 000
Q4/Q4 +56%
4 000
Q3/Q3 +57%
2 000
Q2/Q2 +31%
0
Q1/Q1 -22% 2012
2013
2014 Q1
2015 Q2
2016
2017 Q3
2018 Q4
2019
2020
2021
Average
Gradual improvement in letting activity throughout 2021 8.52m sqm was transacted in Europe’s 17 main markets over 2021. Even though the start to the year was quieter than expected due to recurring waves of infection, take-up started to recover from Q2 and showed continuous improvement afterwards. Even though the overall result for 2021 is – as anticipated – still below the pre-crisis levels (-8%), signs of normalisation in letting activity are in sight. Indeed, take-up reached 2.95m sqm during Q4 2021, which is in line with pre-covid usual volumes for Q4. Most markets show strong rebound in volumes, such as in Barcelona (+85% vs. 2020), Central London and Brussels (+46% each), Central Paris (+36%) or in the 6 main German markets (+27%) Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate Research.
* Berlin, Cologne, Dusseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Munich, Central Paris, Central London, Brussels, Barcelona, Madrid, Dublin, Milan, Rome, Luxembourg, Amsterdam, Warsaw, Prague
21
O F F I C E TA K E - U P I N E U R O P E 2021 vs 2020 CENTRAL LONDON
+46%
BERLIN
+17%
CENTRAL PARIS
+36%
AMSTERDAM
-11%
MADRID
+8%
MILAN
+34%
WARSAW
EUROPE – 2021
10.08M sqm 26 markets +27% vs 2020
GLASGOW EDINBURGH
BRUSSELS
AMSTERDAM
DUBLIN LONDON
-3%
BERLIN BRUSSELS
+46%
DUBLIN
DÜSSELDORF WARSAW
COLOGNE
PARIS
LUXEMBOURG
LYON
VIENNA
500 250
0 - +5%
MILAN
10.08m sqm was taken up in Europe, which is still far from the pre-covid years, when takeup amounted to approximately 13m sqm yearly (2017-2019).
Volumes were on the rise in most markets. The market was buoyant in Central London and Brussels (+46% each) whereas cities such as Amsterdam, Luxembourg, Warsaw and Dublin still recorded decreases.
BUCHAREST
LISBON
MADRID
BARCELONA
ROME
-5 - 0% < -5%
BUDAPEST
MARSEILLE
Deals in thousand sqm
> +5%
Take-up at the end of 2021 saw a significant increase (+27%) compared to last year.
PRAGUE
MUNICH
-25%
1,000
FRANKFURT
-2%
LUXEMBOURG
Strong increase in volumes but pre-covid levels are not reached
HAMBURG
MANCHESTER
Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate.
22
OFFICE PRIME RENTS IN EUROPE Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020
Prime rents were mostly unaffected by the crisis
HELSINKI
CENTRAL LONDON
+4%
BERLIN
+8%
CENTRAL PARIS
+3%
AMSTERDAM
+2%
STOCKHOLM OSLO
MILAN
+2%
WARSAW
+4%
BRUSSELS
HAMBURG
LUXEMBOURG
AMSTERDAM
619 1,492
€ 300 - 400
€ 400 - 600
< € 300
BRUSSELS
320 660
PARIS
+2%
930
+10%
300
> €600
470
LONDON
MADRID
LISBON
432
TALLINN
205
195
VILNIUS
RIGA
195
Despite the slowdown in take-up, the prime market segment did not suffer from the crisis. Indeed, in most markets, prime rental values never decreased over the outbreak of the pandemic, and many of them are even higher than their pre-crisis level.
396
DUBLIN
-5%
DUBLIN
711
528
-1%
MADRID
444
BARCELONA
342 564
516
516
340
MILAN
LYON
610
MARSEILLE
288
BERLIN
FRANKFURT MUNICH
LUXEMBOURG
280 330
DÜSSELDORF
PRAGUE WARSAW
288 VIENNA
312
312 BUDAPEST
BUCHAREST
228
470 ROME
276
The very low availability of prime assets and the appeal of high quality buildings located in the most sought-after districts drove the values up. Luxembourg (+10%) and Berlin (+8%), where vacancy rates are among the lowest in Europe, have seen the most significant increases in values.
ATHENS
Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate
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L O C AT I O N S (JANUARY 2022) EUROPE FRANCE
Headquarters 167, quai de la Bataille de Stalingrad 92867 Issy-les-Moulineaux Tel.: +33 1 55 65 20 04
GERMANY
Goetheplatz 4 60311 Frankfurt am Main Tel.: +49 69 29 89 90
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5 Aldermanbury Square London EC2V 7BP Tel.: +44 20 7338 4000
MIDDLE EAST / ASIA BELGIUM
ITALY
NETHERLANDS
Avenue Louise 235 1050 Brussels Tel.: +32 2 290 59 59
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Antonio Vivaldistraat 54 1083 HP Amsterdam Tel.: +31 20 305 97 20
C/ Emilio Vargas, 4 28043 Madrid Tel.: +34 91 454 96 00
Kronos building 10, rue Edward-Steichen 2540 Luxembourg Tel.: +352 34 94 84
Grzybowska 78, 00-844 Warsaw Tel.: +48 22 653 44 00
57 Adelaide Road, Dublin 2 Tel.: +353 1 66 11 233
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Emaar Square Building n° 1, 7th Floor P.O. Box 7233, Dubaï Tel.: +971 44 248 277
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