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Investeringer i europæiske erhvervsejendomme 2021

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EUROPE CRE 180 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK REAL ESTATE PERSPECTIVES

GLOBAL RESEARCH January 2022


E X E C U T I V E S U M M A RY

EUROPE CRE 180

IN A NUTSHELL

CONTENTS 1 2

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK REAL ESTATE PERSPECTIVES

4

11

2


E X E C U T I V E S U M M A RY IN A NUTSHELL

ECONOMIC GROWTH IS EASING IN THE EUROZONE A normalization in growth is expected in Europe, with household spending underpinned by cheap financing conditions, a further improvement in the labour market and faster wage growth. Stronger supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures may have a negative impact on 2022.

A NORMALIZATION OF INFLATION AND MONETARY POLICY Most of this inflationary surge is still transitory, but that does not mean that we expect it to ease rapidly. This implies that monetary policy will normalize as well, but with important differences in timing, with the Fed and the BoE moving first.

INVESTMENT BACK TO PRE COVID-19 LEVELS €272.7bn was invested in Europe over 2021, which represents a 15% increase vs 2020, in line with the pre-Covid-19 levels. Investment in logistics (+51%) reached an all-time high while office (+10%) and hotel (+33%) investments are on the road to recovery. However retail investment (-7%) continues its descent.

YIELD COMPRESSION RESUMED

OFFICE: VERY DYNAMIC Q3 AND Q4

PRIME RENTS UNAFFECTED BY THE CRISIS

After drawing to a halt during 2020, office prime yields froze all over Europe, but they seem to be narrowing again. Prime retail yields also froze and are now expanding again in some markets. Prime logistics yields, on the other hand, continually decreased during the crisis. Compression accelerated from Q2 2021 and is ongoing.

Take-up at the end of 2021 saw a significant increase (+27%) compared to last year. Slightly more than 10 million sqm was taken-up last year. Even though the pre-covid levels are not reached, take-up showed signs of normalisation in Q3 and Q4.

Despite the slowdown in take-up, the prime market segment did not suffer from the crisis. In many markets, prime rental values are now even standing at higher values than before the outbreak of the pandemic.

3


EUROPE CRE 180

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK


COVID-19: WHERE ARE WE? NEW

COVID

CASES ARE

RISING

New COVID-19 case numbers continue to rise sharply

SHARPLY

 The weekly number of new Covid-19 cases remains very high in most regions because of the Omicron variant. 21.2 million new cases were reported in the week of 10-17 January.

25

140 000 120 000

20

100 000 80 000

15

60 000

10

40 000

5

20 000 0

0 2020

2021

Millions

Number of weekly deaths and confirmed cases

Oceania Europe (inc. UK) Latin America Asia North America Africa World - Confirmed cases (rhs)

2022

 To date, 9.57 billion Covid-19 vaccine doses have been administered worldwide since vaccination campaigns began in the fourth quarter of 2020, including 813 million booster doses.

60% 50%

 Nearly 60% of the world’s population has now received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine. However, there are still substantial disparities between rich nations, where 77% of the population has received at least one dose, and low-income countries (8%).

40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

 On a weekly basis, the highest number of new cases in a single country was in the USA (6,178,670). France was next with 2,006,679 cases (+15.7%), followed by India (1,672,526), Italy (827,805), Spain (784,598) and the UK (599,966).

Vaccination levels are high

Vaccination around the World (Share of the population fully vaccinated)

70%

 The largest weekly increases were recorded in Asia (+95.7%), followed by North America (40%), Europe (6.7%). Africa experienced a decrease in the number of cases (-16.4%).

South America

Europe

North America

Asia

Oceania

Africa

 On the mobility front, visits to retail and leisure facilities remain on a downward trend in Germany, Belgium, Italy, France, Spain, the US and the UK. 5


PURCHASING MANAGER INDEX SURVEYS A BROAD

IMPROVEMENT

Index

OF

BUSINESS

CONFIDENCE

Manufacturing

70

Services

60 50 40 30 20 10

Germany

France

Italy

Spain

United Kingdom

0 06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

Sources: Markit, BNP Paribas Economic Research.

Numerous headwinds are constraining growth prospects in the Eurozone. Supply bottlenecks and supply disruption have been dominant themes throughout the year, acting as a headwind to growth, both directly but also indirectly, by causing a pick-up in inflation to levels not seen in decades Nevertheless, business conditions surveys have shown resilience so far. Indeed, company investments should benefit from improved profitability, very attractive financing conditions, increased capacity utilization and a favourable demand outlook. Although the downside risks have increased, our scenario for 2022 remains fairly optimistic.

6


ECONOMIC OUTLOOK WHAT

OUTLOOK

FOR

THE

MAIN

2022: A normalization in growth

ECONOMIES?

 In the advanced economies, we expect above potential growth in real GDP, with household spending underpinned by cheap financing conditions, a further improvement in the labour market and faster wage growth.

World GDP Oil crisis (1973)

8%

Oil crisis (1979)

Dot-com bubble (2000-2001)

Covid-19 (2020)

Great recession (2008)

6%

 However, concern about the Omicron variant may lead to precautionary behaviour, weighing on certain household spending categories, slowing again the economic recovery.

4% 2% 0%

 Finally, in several countries, household surveys reflect a growing concern about elevated inflation, which is eroding real disposable income. This is particularly an issue for lower income households.

-2% -4%

71

73

75

77

79

81

83

85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

01

03

05

07

09

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

GDP Growth in European countries France

10%

Germany

Italy

Poland

Growth eases in the Eurozone Spain

United Kingdom

 After another quarter of vigorous growth (2.2% q/q in Q3), the Q4 outlook is much less attractive (0.4% q/q). We nonetheless estimate that full-year growth in the Eurozone will average 5% in 2021.

5% 0%

 Stronger supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures should have a negative impact on 2022. Yet the main characteristic of growth in 2022 is that it will hold well above its long term trend.

-5% -10% -15%

 In 2023, growth is expected to remain strong. 00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

Sources: BNP Paribas Real Estate, OECD.

7


GDP GROWTH IN EUROPE GROWTH

An optimistic scenario

EASES

 Growth in the Eurozone remained strong in Q3 2021, in line with expectations (2.2% q/q). However, the outlook for Q4 is much less bright (we expect growth to slow down to 0.4% q/q).

FINLAND

-2.7

2.7

SWEDEN

FORECAST (%):

2021

2022

2023

World

5.6

4.8

3.8

United States

5.5

4.7

2.8

Euro area

5.0

4.2

3.0

Japan

1.7

China India

7.9 8.0

2.6 5.3 11.0

-1.3

1.8

Brazil

4.8

0.5

2.0

4.5

2.8

15.2

4.6

UNITED KINGDOM

7.1

POLAND

NETHERLANDS

5.4

4.1 6.1

5.2

2.9 3.1

6.7

CZ. REPUBLIC

2.9

2.9

5.1

AUSTRIA

SWITZERLAND

4.2

4.3

HUNGARY

6.8

5.1

4.5

ROMANIA

7.7 PORTUGAL

4.4

ITALY

4.6

6.3 SPAIN

4.3

5.4

 Albeit in a rather uneven manner, the US economy has bounced back swiftly from the Covid-19 pandemic and is now stronger than in 2019. Its growth rate, at 5.5% in 2021, is likely to return gradually to normal.

3.6

2.9

BELGIUM FRANCE

5.3

GERMANY

2.6

4.9

3.0

 However, in addition to the awaited normalization, headwinds have increased (supply-side problems, surging inflation and uncertainties arising from the new wave of the pandemic).  Nevertheless, business conditions surveys have shown resilience so far. Although the downside risks have increased, our scenario for 2022 remains fairly optimistic.

IRELAND

6.0

3.0

RUSSIA

3.4

3.9

5.5

4.5

4.3

DENMARK

1.6

Russia

-2.9

NORWAY

4.7

 In the US, the Federal Reserve has started tapering and this should lead to net asset purchases ending in March this year.  In the Eurozone, the ECB has announced in December that it will stop net purchases under the PEPP in March 2022. Given the strength of the recovery, we expect underlying price pressures to build further and the ECB should increase its deposit rate in June 2023.

Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate Research.

8


FINANCIAL OUTLOOK ECONOMIC AND

FINANCIAL

INDICATORS 3%

6%

5% 4,7% 4,6%

4,5%

2,1%

2,5%

2,1%

2,5%

3,1%

1%

2,0%

1,3% 0,2%

0,1%

21

22

23

21

22

United States

23

21

UK

22

-1%

23

21

22

23

21

United States

Euro

%

-0,1%

-0,5%

0%

1% 0%

1,9%

2%

4%

2%

 Covid-induced supply bottlenecks are still a dominant theme and caused a pick-up in inflation to levels not seen in decades.

Policy rates

Inflation

3%

A normalization of inflation and monetary policy

22

23

UK

21

22

23

Euro

Government bond yields

8

Poland

6

Italy

4

Spain

2

UK

0 -2

France

07

08

09

10

11

12

Sources: BNP Paribas Economic Research, OECD.

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

Germany

 The main central banks in Western economies are arguing that the shock is mainly transitory. However, transitory does not necessarily mean ‘short lived’ and some forecasters are now considering a scenario in which inflation and upward pressure on wages could last.  Indeed, the underlying dynamics of inflation are upwards, with an acceleration of wage growth, which could push companies to increase their sales prices.  This implies that monetary policy will normalize as well, but with important differences in timing. In the US, the Federal Reserve has started to slow down the pace of monthly asset purchases and it should be followed by several rate hikes, starting around the mid 2022.  In the Euro area, monetary policy should remain very accommodative. If the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme is expected to end in March 2022, we only expect a first increase of the deposit rate in June 2023.  The monetary divergence between the Fed and the ECB should cause a further strengthening of the dollar versus the euro. 9


FINANCIAL OUTLOOK INFLATION

IS

Oil

Index

RISING AROUND Gas

Food

THE

Commodities (exc. Energy)

Most goods and services are impacted by supply bottlenecks

WORLD Shipping rates (rhs)

Index

600

4500 4000

500 3500 400

3000 2500

300 2000 200

1500 1000

100

 The world economy is experiencing multiple supply shocks: oil, gas, semiconductors, other materials, labour shortages. Some of these should be transitory because rooted in supply chain disruption; others will probably be permanent.  Most of this inflationary surge is still transitory, but that does not mean that we expect it to ease rapidly. Inflationary pressures due to supply-demand imbalances will take a while to dissipate.  Indeed, with the rebound in global demand, consumer prices have accelerated rather sharply in recent months, and these pricing dynamics extended into H2 2021.  According to our latest scenario, this inflationary surge is unlikely to last. This is also the ECB’s point of view. The European Central Bank expects inflation to peak this year. According to its latest macroeconomic projections, headline inflation will rise to 3.1% in 2022 (after +2.5% in 2021) before declining to 2.0% in 2023.

500 0

0 01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

Sources: IMF, Harper Petersen, ICE, BNP Paribas Real Estate

10


EUROPE CRE 180

REAL ESTATE PERSPECTIVES


EUROPE CRE 180

REAL ESTATE PERSPECTIVES COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT MARKETS


I N V E S T M E N T I N C O M M E R C I A L R E A L E S TAT E I N E U R O P E BREAKDOWN

OF

INVESTMENT

BY ASSET

€bn

2021 vs 2020

350 300

273

+15%

100

106

+10%

50

37

-7%

250 200 150

0 08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

70 60 50

65

+51%

51

+5%

13

+33%

40

CLASS INVESTMENT BACK AT PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS  After an all-time high in Q1 2020 (€319bn over 12 months), investment plummeted over 2020 and reached its lowest point at Q1 2021 (€212bn), 12% below the 5-year average. Investment was inhibited by the lockdowns all over Europe, travel restrictions as well as hesitation from institutional investors that adopted a wait-and-see attitude.  Investment traction restored from Q2 2021 (€242bn) as European countries gradually took control of the outbreak mainly through vaccination and with the help of the summer lull in virus transmission. Q2 2021 (+70% vs Q2 2020) saw a strong impulse in investment, while the increase in Q3 and Q4 2021 (+29% and +22%) was moderate, almost reaching the average of the previous years.  Most asset classes are affected by this turn of events, in positive or negative ways. Logistics profited from greater trust shown in ecommerce expansion. Office investment improvement is balanced as teleworking put a clear divide between modern and older units. Retail investment seems to have flattened with the sector becoming more opportunistic in character.

30 20 10 0 08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

Commercial real estate

Industrial & logistics

Office

Hotel

Retail

Other This excludes residential investment.

13


C O M M E R C I A L R E A L E S TAT E I N V E S T M E N T 2021 vs 2020 +7%

GERMANY UNITED KINGDOM

FINLAND

4.4

+21%

FRANCE

-8%

NETHERLANDS

-8%

15.8

SPAIN

+31%

POLAND

+15%

IRELAND

+84%

3.2

11.5 3.1

BELGIUM FRANCE

CZECH REPUBLIC

+47%

LUXEMBOURG

+7%

26.7

≥ €50bn

€5-10bn

€20-50bn

€1-5bn

€10-20bn

< €1bn

64.1

1.9

5.7 CZECH REP.

2.0

1.2

AUSTRIA

SWITZERLAND

2.8

2.5

• €272.7bn was invested in Europe over 2021, which represents a 15% increase vs 2020, in line with the preCovid-19 levels.

POLAND

GERMANY

SLOVAKIA

0.9 HUNGARY

1.2

ROMANIA

0.9

SOUTH EAST EUROPE ITALY

8.7

PORTUGAL

(excludes residential investment)

67.0

NETHERLANDS

LUX.

-44%

BELGIUM

1.4

6.0 UNITED KINGDOM

+15% vs 2020

BALTICS

DENMARK IRELAND

€272.7bn

SWEDEN

24.6

+4%

ITALY

EUROPE – 2021

NORWAY

1.7

SPAIN

10.0

• However, a closer look at European countries shows geographical variance. The improvement in the United Kingdom, Germany, Sweden and Spain marked the rising trend. Investment levels in some other countries such as France, the Netherlands or Belgium are still below those of 2020.

Source : BNP Paribas Real Estate

14


C O M M E R C I A L R E A L E S TAT E I N V E S T M E N T V O L U M E PROPERTY

REMAINS AN ATTRACTIVE ASSET TO

BUY

CRE Investment volume (€ billion) €bn 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20

67 64

UNITED KINGDOM

51 45

NORDICS

GERMANY

ADVISORY 8 COUNTRIES

27

FRANCE

19

OTHER

10 0 08

09

10

11

Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate Research.

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

Advisory 8 countries: Belgium, Czech Republic, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Poland, Spain.

 There is no comparison between the impact of the current crisis on investment volumes and that of the global financial crisis of 2008/9 throughout Europe. Volumes remain high, as today’s credit conditions are not tight, and investors don't expect major deflation in prices in most markets for secure assets. Cash is there and definitely king over the current period.  All countries are trending up except for France, which remained flat over 2021.  The United Kingdom benefited from its advanced vaccination campaign and from the postBrexit dynamic as investors returned to the market. It is back in top place among European countries despite a weaker Q4.  Northern Europe suffered the least from the pandemic, and is even experiencing a surge in investor interest, with Sweden and Norway reaching all-time highs. 15


INVESTMENT BY SIZE BAND MEGA DEALS MORE IMPACTED BY THE CRISIS •

•

•

Mega deals (>€100m) volume in Q1 2020 reached a record figure of €155bn (on a rolling-year basis), which represents 48% of the total investment, an unusually big share for a Q1. Mega deals had been on the rise from mid-2019. The volume of mega deals dropped from Q2 2020 and only reached €89bn at Q1 2021 on a rolling-year basis, down -43% vs the 12 months to Q1 2020 figure, versus -33% for total investment. The situation improved for mega deals too over the rest of 2021, albeit more slowly than for the other deal size segments. Big deals are more complicated and require a longer process before signature. The signature is a legal formality for a deal already done. This may explain why the corona virus outbreak initially impacted smaller deals. The process for small deals is easier to terminate. Yet as the crisis went on, the momentum behind closing big deals diminished because of the mobility problems of lockdown. With travel becoming easier, this segment maybe gaining traction again, although it will possibly be the slowest to restore full market normality.

Commercial Real Estate Investment in Europe Total and >€100m size band - volume and share €bn 350 300 250

273

TOTAL INVESTMENT

112

>€100M DEALS

200 150 100 50 0

35%

08

30%

09

34%

10

35%

11

41%

12

43%

13

45%

14

47%

15

41%

16

43%

17

42%

18

46%

19

46%

20

41%

21

Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate.

16


CROSS-BORDER INVESTMENT MARKET • Foreign investment was hindered by the spread of the virus through Europe. In spring 2020, most foreign investors delayed their ongoing deals until Europe was open again. Over the twelve months to Q1 2021, foreign investment plummeted (-38% vs Q1 2020), although the situation improved over the rest of 2021. • Within foreign investment, European cross-border investment was less affected which makes sense as nearby deals were easier to do during the lockdowns. It increased by 7% in 2021 vs 2020. • Conversely, investment from other continents was hit hard by the crisis. But the post crisis period seems to be differing from one continent to the next. • On the one hand, American investors showed strong interest in the European market in 2021. With more than €41bn spent over the year, American investment is back to pre-crisis levels. • On the other hand, investors from Asia Pacific and Middle East don’t seem to be as active in their European investments. They represented respectively 8% and 4% of foreign investment, which is very low considering Asians represented around 20% of foreign investment back in 2019. • As observed in 2009, the reduction in cross-border deals in Europe was somewhat compensated by domestic investment during the pandemic. But as restrictions eased, foreign investment resumed much more strongly than expected.

Commercial Real Estate Investment in Europe Total, foreign and domestic investment €bn 350 300

273

TOTAL INVESTMENT

150

141

DOMESTIC

100

132

FOREIGN

250 200

50 0 08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

Commercial Real Estate Investment in Europe Foreign investment detail €bn 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

55 42

EUROPE

10 5

ASIA PACIFIC MIDDLE EAST

AMERICA

21

17


AV E R A G E P R I M E Y I E L D S I N E U R O P E BASED

ON

15

MARKETS

8% 7%

 After drawing to a halt during 2020, office prime yields froze all over Europe, but they seem to be narrowing again.

6% 5%

3,60% 3,40%

4% 3%

3,20%

2% 1% 0%

-0,21%

 Prime retail yields also froze and are now expanding again in some markets.  Prime logistics yields, on the other hand, boosted by the scarcity of assets, continually decreased during the crisis. Compression accelerated from Q2 2021 and is ongoing.

-1% 2009

2010

2011

Office

2012

2013

2014

High Street Retail

2015

2016

2017

Logistics

2018

2019

2020

10-year Bund

2021 Based on 16 cities: Amsterdam, Berlin, Brussels, London, Paris, Dublin, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Lisbon, Luxembourg, Madrid, Milan, Munich, Prague, Vienna and Warsaw.

Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate Research.

18


PRIME OFFICE YIELDS

 The downward trend in office prime yields, ongoing for several years, slowed or ceased in most markets in 2020. Yet they kept narrowing in most European cities.

Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020 BERLIN

-15bp

HELSINKI

=

PARIS AMSTERDAM MADRID MILAN

OSLO

LUXEMBOURG BRUSSELS DUBLIN

5.00 DUBLIN

4.00

-25bp

3-4%

>6%

HAMBURG

2.40

2.65 MUNICH

2.70

4.50

MADRID

3.10

3.35 LYON

BARCELONA

MARSEILLE

VILNIUS

4.70

WARSAW

THE HAGUE

BUDAPEST

VIENNA

3.90

3.10

4.25 3.00

PARIS

TOULOUSE

PRAGUE

2.50

LILLE

5.25

BERLIN

FRANKFURT

3.25

RIGA

3.25

2.55

LONDON

4.15

4.00

4-6%

COPENHAGEN

4.75

BIRMINGHAM

LISBON

≤ 3%

4.50

=

+10bp

5.80

EDINBURGH

-65bp

WARSAW

5.50

TALLINN

MANCHESTER

4.75

-30bp

-25bp

3.00

GLASGOW

-40bp

PRAGUE

3.10

STOCKHOLM

3.25

=

-10bp

LONDON

 With reopening, most European markets are now back to prime office yield compression, except for Paris, Amsterdam and Dublin where they remained stable while it was expanding in Warsaw.

5.25

BUCHAREST

6.80

4.80

AMSTERDAM

3.10 4.30

ROTTERDAM

3.10

MILAN

3.25

3.50

ROME

BRUSSELS ATHENS

6.00

DÜSSELDORF

2.75

2.60

COLOGNE

3.40 LUXEMBOURG

Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate

19


EUROPE CRE 180

REAL ESTATE PERSPECTIVES OFFICE MARKETS


O F F I C E TA K E - U P I N E U R O P E – 2 0 2 1 18

MAIN

EUROPEAN

OFFICE

MARKETS*

thousand sqm 12 000 Average: 9,415

10 000

y.o.y. +27%

8 000 6 000

Q4/Q4 +56%

4 000

Q3/Q3 +57%

2 000

Q2/Q2 +31%

0

Q1/Q1 -22% 2012

2013

2014 Q1

2015 Q2

2016

2017 Q3

2018 Q4

2019

2020

2021

Average

Gradual improvement in letting activity throughout 2021  8.52m sqm was transacted in Europe’s 17 main markets over 2021. Even though the start to the year was quieter than expected due to recurring waves of infection, take-up started to recover from Q2 and showed continuous improvement afterwards.  Even though the overall result for 2021 is – as anticipated – still below the pre-crisis levels (-8%), signs of normalisation in letting activity are in sight.  Indeed, take-up reached 2.95m sqm during Q4 2021, which is in line with pre-covid usual volumes for Q4.  Most markets show strong rebound in volumes, such as in Barcelona (+85% vs. 2020), Central London and Brussels (+46% each), Central Paris (+36%) or in the 6 main German markets (+27%) Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate Research.

* Berlin, Cologne, Dusseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Munich, Central Paris, Central London, Brussels, Barcelona, Madrid, Dublin, Milan, Rome, Luxembourg, Amsterdam, Warsaw, Prague

21


O F F I C E TA K E - U P I N E U R O P E 2021 vs 2020 CENTRAL LONDON

+46%

BERLIN

+17%

CENTRAL PARIS

+36%

AMSTERDAM

-11%

MADRID

+8%

MILAN

+34%

WARSAW

EUROPE – 2021

10.08M sqm 26 markets +27% vs 2020

GLASGOW EDINBURGH

BRUSSELS

AMSTERDAM

DUBLIN LONDON

-3%

BERLIN BRUSSELS

+46%

DUBLIN

DÜSSELDORF WARSAW

COLOGNE

PARIS

LUXEMBOURG

LYON

VIENNA

500 250

0 - +5%

MILAN

10.08m sqm was taken up in Europe, which is still far from the pre-covid years, when takeup amounted to approximately 13m sqm yearly (2017-2019).

Volumes were on the rise in most markets. The market was buoyant in Central London and Brussels (+46% each) whereas cities such as Amsterdam, Luxembourg, Warsaw and Dublin still recorded decreases.

BUCHAREST

LISBON

MADRID

BARCELONA

ROME

-5 - 0% < -5%

 BUDAPEST

MARSEILLE

Deals in thousand sqm

> +5%

Take-up at the end of 2021 saw a significant increase (+27%) compared to last year.

PRAGUE

MUNICH

-25%

1,000

FRANKFURT

-2%

LUXEMBOURG

Strong increase in volumes but pre-covid levels are not reached

HAMBURG

MANCHESTER

Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate.

22


OFFICE PRIME RENTS IN EUROPE Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020

Prime rents were mostly unaffected by the crisis

HELSINKI

CENTRAL LONDON

+4%

BERLIN

+8%

CENTRAL PARIS

+3%

AMSTERDAM

+2%

STOCKHOLM OSLO

MILAN

+2%

WARSAW

+4%

BRUSSELS

HAMBURG

LUXEMBOURG

AMSTERDAM

619 1,492

€ 300 - 400

€ 400 - 600

< € 300

BRUSSELS

320 660

PARIS

+2%

930

+10%

300

> €600

470

LONDON

MADRID

LISBON

432

TALLINN

205

195

VILNIUS

RIGA

195

 Despite the slowdown in take-up, the prime market segment did not suffer from the crisis.  Indeed, in most markets, prime rental values never decreased over the outbreak of the pandemic, and many of them are even higher than their pre-crisis level.

396

DUBLIN

-5%

DUBLIN

711

528

-1%

MADRID

444

BARCELONA

342 564

516

516

340

MILAN

LYON

610

MARSEILLE

288

BERLIN

FRANKFURT MUNICH

LUXEMBOURG

280 330

DÜSSELDORF

PRAGUE WARSAW

288 VIENNA

312

312 BUDAPEST

BUCHAREST

228

470 ROME

276

 The very low availability of prime assets and the appeal of high quality buildings located in the most sought-after districts drove the values up.  Luxembourg (+10%) and Berlin (+8%), where vacancy rates are among the lowest in Europe, have seen the most significant increases in values.

ATHENS

Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate

23


L O C AT I O N S (JANUARY 2022) EUROPE FRANCE

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GERMANY

Goetheplatz 4 60311 Frankfurt am Main Tel.: +49 69 29 89 90

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5 Aldermanbury Square London EC2V 7BP Tel.: +44 20 7338 4000

MIDDLE EAST / ASIA BELGIUM

ITALY

NETHERLANDS

Avenue Louise 235 1050 Brussels Tel.: +32 2 290 59 59

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SINGAPORE

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AUSTRIA I CZECH REPUBLIC I DENMARK I ESTONIA I FINLAND I GREECE I HUNGARY I JERSEY I LATVIA I LITHUANIA I NORTHERN IRELAND I NORWAY I PORTUGAL I ROMANIA I SWEDEN SWITZERLAND I USA


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