VISIONING FOOD FUTURES
Participatory Foresight Drives Biodiversity Integration in Food Systems In Kenya’s agricultural heartland, Nakuru County shows how participatory foresight planning can shift institutional thinking to better integrate biodiversity with economic development for long-term food security. Through evidence-based visioning with a wide range of stakeholders, a Manifesto for Change was embedded into county plans and budgets. It also fostered institutional champions promoting agroecological practices and sustainable finance within broader circular economy goals. Strategic policy engagement, strong community ownership, and multi-stakeholder platforms, including unconventional partnerships, proved critical in driving systemic change in the local food system, linking healthy ecosystems with inclusive economic opportunities. The Nakuru experience highlights how collaboration, transformative leadership, and iterative learning can connect grassroots action to county and national frameworks.
Multi-Stakeholder Foresight Process Supporting Biodiversity–Food Systems Integration at County Level
The Biodiversity–Food Systems Challenge Nakuru County exemplifies Kenya’s agricultural dilemma where productive agriculture and high-end horticulture offer economic opportunities but at the expense of land, soils, water and biodiversity, potentially causing longterm ecosystem harm. Intensive practices around Lake Naivasha and Lake Nakuru have created environmental impacts including deforestation, water pollution and flooding, while large-scale agriculture displaces indigenous crop varieties and traditional farming, undermining genetic diversity needed for climate adaptation. These environmental pressures threaten to compromise agricultural systems’ ecological foundation, compounded by weak linkages between biodiversity conservation and agricultural development policies that limit opportunities for synergistic interventions enhancing both ecological health and farmer livelihoods.
Nakuru County’s food systems transformation initiative is anchored by the Foresight4Food framework and led by Oxford University’s Environmental Change Institute in partnership with Wageningen University. Funded by the Netherlands through IFAD’s FoSTr programme, the collaboration provides technical advisory support and capacity building for local institutions. This multi-stakeholder platform brings together community networks, county and national government entities, research partners including the Results for Africa Institute (RAI) and the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI). Additional collaborators include the University of Nairobi, Egerton University’s Living Lab, various county-level research and extension services and the private sector. The initiative has successfully engaged over 40 diverse stakeholders in developing comprehensive scenario planning for Nakuru County’s food system future.
KEY TERMS Participatory Foresight: A collaborative methodology that engages multiple stakeholders in exploring possible futures and developing adaptive strategies for complex socio-ecological challenges.
Circular Economy: An approach that minimizes waste and maximizes resource use by recycling, reusing, and creating value from by-products (e.g., waste-to-value initiatives).
Learn more about Foresight4Food here
Payment for Ecosystem Services: Financial incentives provided to farmers or communities in exchange for managing land or resources in ways that maintain or restore ecosystem services.
Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA): Kenya’s current national development strategy focused on inclusive, grassroots-led growth, with strong emphasis on agriculture and food systems.