DAIRY MARKET REPORT VOLUME 27 | ISSUE 9
9/26/2024
OVERVIEW The U.S. average all-milk price stayed constant from June to July, even as futures markets and USDA estimates indicate rising prices in upcoming months. Still, the cost of dairy feed, as calculated by the Dairy Margin Coverage feed cost formula, dropped by $0.66/cwt during the month, boosting the July margin to $12.33/cwt. That’s the fourth highest monthly margin since margin protection became the basic dairy safety net program in January 2015. Total U.S. fluid milk consumption was higher than a year earlier during over half of the past 10 months, through July. Yogurt, butter and total cheese, especially other than American types, saw positive growth in use during May-July. July U.S. dairy exports were up substantially over their average levels during the first half of this year, at 17.4% of total U.S. milk solids production compared to an average of 16.4% during the first half. July marked the 13th consecutive month with lower milk production than a year earlier, during which period milk production averaged -0.8% below a year ago, while milk solids production averaged -0.2% below a year ago.
COMMERCIAL USE OF DAIRY PRODUCTS Over the 10 months beginning in October 2023, monthly total U.S. fluid milk consumption compared with the same month one year earlier rose more often than it didn’t, a strong contrast with historical norms. In 57 months since the beginning of 2019, a positive monthly rise has happened less than one-sixth of the time. This recent strong demand raises the possibility that fluid milk
DOMESTIC COMMERCIAL USE
consumption may rise overall for 2024, as up months outstrip down ones, bucking a five-decade trend that was only briefly interrupted by oddities related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, domestic use of yogurt, butter and total cheese, especially other than American types, showed positive growth during May-July.
MAY-JUL 2024
MAY-JUL 2023
2023-2024 CHANGE
PERCENT CHANGE
(million pounds) Total Fluid Milk Products
10,173
10,120
53
0.5%
Yogurt
1,203
1,162
41
3.5%
Butter
563
530
32
6.1%
American-type Cheese
1,406
1,436
-30
-2.1%
All Other Cheese
1,988
1,930
58
3.0%
Total Cheese
3,394
3,366
28
0.8%
Dry Skim Milk
164
243
-78
-32.3%