DAIRY MARKET REPORT VOLUME 28 | ISSUE 1
1/23/2025
OVERVIEW Fluid milk sales in 2024 are on track to exceed 2023’s; which would be the first time fluid would see a yearover-year gain since 2009. Year to date through November, total commercial use last year was above the same period in 2023 for all cheese, butter and yogurt but lower for the main dairy ingredient products. U.S. dairy exports were lower in November, with cheese exports a bright spot on the strength of volume going to Mexico, South Korea and Japan. Growing butter imports from Ireland are raising total U.S. dairy import volumes. Meanwhile, on production, following three months of levels above a year ago, U.S. milk production dropped in November by 1% due to an unusually large drop in milk production per cow. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Items, the benchmark for measuring overall retail price inflation, was relatively stable during the fourth quarter of 2024, as were the CPIs for all Food and Beverages and for all Dairy and Related Products, with the former averaging almost 5% higher than that for All Items and the latter averaging 14% lower. The November monthly margin under the Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program was $14.29/cwt, the third highest since margin protection became the basic safety net program for dairy in 2015.
COMMERCIAL USE OF DAIRY PRODUCTS Fluid milk sales rose year over year during Q1 and Q2 last year, but were down in Q3 and so far in Q4. But yearto-date overall is still up over last year by 0.4% through November, thus having a good chance to exceed last year’s sales on a calendar year basis, the first full-year increase since 2009. This will occur if December’s sales do not fall by 3.8% or more below December 2023 sales. Year to date through November, total commercial use,
DOMESTIC COMMERCIAL USE
domestic and export, was above the prior year for all cheese, butter and yogurt, but were lower for the dairy ingredient products of dry skim milk, dry whey, whey protein concentrate and lactose. Stronger export sales helped power these results for the first group of consumer-focused products, while weaker domestic sales reduced the totals for the ingredient group. All relevent comparisons are on a leap-year adjusted basis.
SEP-NOV 2024
SEP-NOV 2023
2023-2024 CHANGE
PERCENT CHANGE
(million pounds) Total Fluid Milk Products
10,902
10,967
-65
-0.6%
Yogurt
1,240
1,123
117
10.4%
Butter
652
567
84
14.9%
American-type Cheese
1,385
1,421
-36
-2.5%