DAIRY MARKET REPORT VOLUME 27 | ISSUE 12
12/ 16/2024
OVERVIEW October’s Dairy Margin Coverage margin receded $0.40/cwt from its record level a month earlier to $15.17/ cwt, the second highest level since margin protection became dairy’s basic federal safety net mechanism. October fluid milk sales were 1.3% higher than a year earlier, which continued to keep past three-month and year-to-date sales growth positive. Yogurt and butter showed particularly strong U.S. consumption gains during August-October, despite both reaching their highest ever retail prices during the period. Following 16 consecutive months when U.S. dairy cows were below year-earlier numbers, USDA reported the national milking cow herd grew by 10,000 cows year-over-year in October. Together with other factors, this likely indicates a return to expansion mode for U.S. milk production. Stocks of all cheese dropped almost to pre-pandemic levels at the end of October, likely driven by constrained production growth and robust exports. Cheese price weakness was responsible for dropping the Class III price by almost $3/cwt in November from a month earlier.
COMMERCIAL USE OF DAIRY PRODUCTS October fluid milk sales were 1.3% higher than a year earlier, which continued to keep past three-month and year-to-date sales growth positive and raised the probability that fluid sales will show positive growth, adjusted for leap year, for all of 2024. That would be
DOMESTIC COMMERCIAL USE
the first time this has happened since 2009. Yogurt and butter showed particularly strong consumption gains in the U.S. domestic market during August-October, all the more noteworthy given that both products reached their highest ever national average retail prices in September.
AUG-OCT 2024
AUG-OCT 2023
2023-2024 CHANGE
PERCENT CHANGE
(million pounds) Total Fluid Milk Products
10,876
10,827
49
0.5%
Yogurt
1,283
1,181
102
8.6%
Butter
605
549
56
10.2%
American-type Cheese
1,405
1,409
-5
-0.3%
All Other Cheese
2,064
2,026
38
1.9%
Total Cheese
3,469
3,435
33
1.0%
Dry Skim Milk
116
168
-52
-31.0%