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INSTITUTO DE GLOBALIZACIÓN Y PROSPECTIVA Centro virtual que contribuye a que profesionales, académicos, políticos, medios de comunicación y "decision-makers" incorporen en su actividad la visión prospectiva para la "gestión del futuro". Dirigido en Chile por el prof. Héctor Casanueva, presidente del Nodo Chile del Millennium Projec(MP)(StateoftheFuture.org)think tank global de estudios de futuro de 2.500 académicos, políticos, científicos, artistas e intelectuales de todo el mundo.
sábado, julio 17, 2010
"El presente se construye desde el futuro", H.C.
The state of the future 2010 July 14, 2010 by Jerome C. Glenn As noted in our 2010 State of the Future (the 14th annual report from the Millennium Project, just published), the world is in a race between implementing ever-increasing ways to improve the human condition and the seemingly ever-increasing complexity and scale of global problems. If current trends in population growth, resource depletion, climate change, terrorism, organized crime, and disease continue and converge over the next 50 to 100 years, it is easy to imagine an unstable world with catastrophic results. However, if current trends in selforganization via future Internets, transnational cooperation, materials science, alternative energy, cognitive science, inter-religious dialogues, synthetic biology, and nanotechnology continue and converge over the next 50 to 100 years, it is easy to imagine a world that works for all. Fewer children are dying, more children are going to school, people are living longer, the world powers are at peace, and the US and Russia have signed a nuclear weapons reduction treaty. Yet the numbers of malnourished children in Africa and Asia are increasing; education is poorly preparing the next generation for a more knowledge-oriented future; aging populations will overburden the financial capability to provide retirement benefits and health care without new policies; and the sophistication and diversity of terrorism continues to proliferate. The 2010 Peace Index in the report shows that while the risk of war is declining in most areas of the world, violent crime has increased. Our study has found eight specific problem areas where things are getting worse: Global Surface Temperature Anomalies, People Voting in Elections (% population of voting age for 15 largest countries), Unemployment (% of total labor force), Fossil fuel energy consumption (% of total), Levels of Corruption (15 largest countries), People killed or injured in terrorist attacks (number), and Refugee population by country or territory of asylum. Technological solutions On the plus side, as Ray Kurzweil has shown, the volume of change over the foreseeable future is likely to be far greater than that over the past 25 years, because the factors that made those changes are themselves accelerating (computer power, Internet bandwidth, miniaturization, global interdependence, and synthetic biology). This should change what we think is possible. We believe properly managed biotech, infotech, nanotech, and cognotech breakthroughs currently on the drawing boards and the coming synergies among them will help get humanity through the looming environmental, economic, and social conflicts as we move toward a crowded world of about 9 billion people by the year 2050. Ubiquitous Internet Nearly 30% of humanity is connected to the Internet. Within five years, about half the world will have Internet access—and on mobile devices. A few years after that, it is reasonable to assume that all of humanity can be connected. The Internet has evolved from a passive information repository (Web 1.0) to a user-generated and participatory system (Web 2.0) and is morphing into Web 3.0, a more intelligent partner that has knowledge about the meaning of the information it stores and the ability to reason with that knowledge. With 5 billion mobile phone subscriptions, falling prices for smartphones, and the built environment getting multimedia transceivers and a variety of sensors, it is reasonable to assume that the majority of the world—now urbanized—will experience ubiquitous computing and eventually spend most of its time in some form of technologically augmented reality. Meanwhile, Internet bases with wireless transmission are being constructed in remote villages; cell phones with Internet access are being designed for educational and business access by the lowest-income groups; and innovative programs are being created to connect
“Las sociedades que se afirman sólo en el pasado para gestionar el presente, pierden el futuro…” Héctor Casanueva (Entrevista en "Convenio", Rosario, Argentina)
Acerca de mí HCasanueva Vicerrector de Investigación y Desarrollo de la Universidad Pedro de Valdivia. Director Ejecutivo del Centro Latinoamericano para las Relaciones con Europa (CELARE).Master en Comunidades Europeas por la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid y en Sociología por la Universidad de Lomas de Zamora. Más información personal y CV en el Vínculo PERFIL COMPLETO Ver mi perfil completo
Vínculos The Millenium Project Sociedad Mundial del Futuro Singularity University. NASA Ames,California Future Foundation Universidad Pedro de Valdivia Instituto de Prospectiva Estratégica Pensamiento Global/H.Casanueva Centro Latinoamericano de Globalización y Prospectiva Centro Latinoamericano para las Relaciones con Europa Universidad Miguel de converted by Web2PDFConvert.com