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Moose Jaw’s current demographics will dictate its future, sociologist says Jason G. Antonio - Moose Jaw Express
SALES • SERVICE • INSTALLATION Moose Jaw’s demographics will dictate its future, which means the city must better preSpecialized in pare for an aging population while ensuring Energy Efficient Furnaces its younger citizens aren’t forgotten, a soCustom Sheet Metal Work ciologist says. We Service ALL Makes and Models “Population and why it matters” was Always Fully Stocked! the title of Dr. Laura Wright’s talk at the Moose Jaw Cultural Centre on April 5, as part of the City of Moose Jaw’s ongoing seULHV WR SURPRWH WKH FUHDWLRQ RI D QHZ 2I¿FLDO Community Plan (OCP) and zoning bylaw. Wright is an associate professor of sociology at the University of Saskatchewan. “Demography is destiny,” she told the crowd of roughly 30 people at the Mae Wilson Theatre. Demography — or demographics — studies a population’s size and composition and how it changes over time, Wright explained. It looks at understanding communities’ pasts, presents and futures. It also uncovers a community’s strengths and needs THE WEARHOUSE and can guide planning, policy development and decision-making. The three factors that comprise demography are births, deaths and migration. Lots of new pants have arrived! Wright showed a chart featuring Moose All Fabric Rolls 40% OFF! Jaw’s population from 2001 to 2021, which stayed “pretty stable” during those 20 years. 6SHFL¿FDOO\ 7KH )ULHQGO\ &LW\ JUHZ E\ per cent in 2006, 3.2 per cent in 2011 and 1.8 per cent in 2016, while it shrunk by 0.5 per cent in 2021. In comparison, during those same years, Saskatchewan’s population shrunk by 1.1 per cent before climbing by 6.7 per cent, 6.3 per cent and 3.1 per cent. )RU D ³YHU\ ORQJ WLPH´ ² EXW SDUWLFXTHE WEARHOUSE larly since 2018-19 — deaths in Moose Jaw outpaced births, while there has also been Buy 1 Pair of Pants and Get The 2nd Pair for 1/2 PRICE! plenty of net out-migration, said Wright. The only thing that kept Moose Jaw’s popBring this coupon to purchase 1 pair of pants at our ‘regular’ low price and buy the second pair for 1/2 ulation stable — including during those 20 price (of equal or lesser value) years — was international migration. Sociologists use two metrics to understand demographics: population pyramids Wed & Sat 10am-5pm and dependency ratio, said Wright. Thurs & Fri 10am-7pm Population pyramids contain data about every age category in a place, with the 429 River St. W. Moose Jaw youngest at the bottom — or base — and
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Dr. Laura Wright, a sociologist from the University of Saskatchewan, speaks about demographics during a presentation at the Mae Wilson Theatre. Photo by Jason G. Antonio older residents layering on top. Meanwhile, the dependency ratio is about “who’s relying on whom” to provide the tax base and services. The formula is the youngest (zero to 14) plus the oldest (65 and older) divided by the working population (15 to 64) provides the ratio number. Wright showed a slide comparing Nigeria and South Korea. The African country has a wide base because of its high fertility and high growth, while the Asian country has a narrow base and bulging middle and top because it has many seniors, low fertility and a shrinking population. Meanwhile, population pyramids for Canada and Moose Jaw look similar, with baby boomers (born between 1946-66) and millennials (1980-96) the two largest cohorts and Generation X (1965-79), Z (1997 to 2010) and Alpha (2010 to present) the smallest cohorts. “What we’re seeing in Canada and Moose Jaw is population aging. Essentially, the average age is increasing as there are fewer and fewer births (and) there’s a lower
fertility,” Wright said. “Also contributing to population aging is longer life expectancies — which is a good thing. Young people permanently leaving Moose Jaw makes population aging worse, EXW WR RIIVHW WKDW RI¿FLDOV QHHG WR LQFUHDVH in-migration and decrease out-migration, she continued. This can attract a core working-age population that can pay taxes and provides services for the youngest and oldest. An aging and changing population will affect many areas of life, such as schools, health services, the labour market, economic growth, social services, housing supply and family structures, Wright said. It is possible to mitigate an aging population and promote population growth by creating a plan to meet the community’s needs, she continued. A community can encourage more births by making child care affordable and accessible, having family-friendly work policies, providing services for young families and removing barriers that prevent families from having more kids. Deaths can be addressed by promoting healthy aging, ensuring seniors can age in place, providing accessible health-care services, and providing senior-focused services. With migration, a community can ensure there are jobs for young graduates, support people to remain in Moose Jaw and attract new people from Canada and internationally. “Across Canada and in most Western countries, migration really is the key to slowing population aging … ,” said Wright. Saskatchewan’s international immigration is composed of people coming through nominee programs (66.2 per cent), followed by economic reasons (28.7 per cent), with family (10.9 per cent) and refugees (5.8 per cent). “So population aging and population SRWHQWLDO GHFOLQH KDV KXJH UDPL¿FDWLRQV for communities (and) for what communities need (and) look like in the future … ,” Wright added.
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