M:
Research
H2/26 Rural Queensland
Headlines Queensland faces a mixed rainfall outlook from November to January, with wetter conditions likely across inland southern areas and below-average rainfall expected across northern regions.
Farm expenses are forecast to remain elevated in 2026– 27, with input prices rising 1.7%, maintaining pressure on margins despite easing fertiliser costs.
Queensland is forecast to experience warmer-thanaverage temperatures from November to January.
Australian farm profitability is forecast to weaken, with broadacre farm business profits falling 39% as lower production and high costs weigh on performance.
Rural Queensland has heightened bushfire risk across southern areas as drier conditions, low soil moisture and curing fuels increase danger.
Queensland rural property prices rose 28.2% in 2025 to $8,740 per hectare, whilst Rabobank forecasts Australian land values to grow 2% in 2026.
Economy Key drivers
H2/26
+1.5%
Economic growth
The global economy is estimated to have expanded by 3.0% in FY26, following 3.5% growth in FY25. Economic growth in Australia rose from an estimated 1.3% in FY25, to 2.2% in FY26. In FY27, global growth is forecast to be 3.4% higher, whilst in Australia, the economy is expected to rise by 1.5%.
Exchange rate
+3.3%
Inflation
Inflation was recorded in Australia at 2.4% in FY25, when the variable interest rate to large business in Australia was estimated at 5.69%. Inflation became higher in FY26 with an estimated change of 3.7%. The FY27 outlook for inflation is forecast to be 3.3%, when the interest rate to large business is likely to shift to 5.95%.
US$0.71
+1.3%
Population growth
The exchange rate outlook is essential for exporters because it directly affects pricing, competitiveness and profitability in foreign markets. The Australian dollar (AUD) depreciated against the US dollar (USD) to be US$0.65 at the end of FY25, and was estimated to be US$0.68 in FY26. The AUD is forecast to reach US$0.71 at the end of FY27.
Australia recorded 1.5% growth in population in FY25, when compared to 0.9% globally. Australia's population is projected to grow 1.4% in FY26, then rise 1.3% in FY27. At these times, the global population is projected to be 0.8% and 0.8%, respectively.
Economic outlook
FY23
FY24
FY25E
FY26E
FY27F
Global economic growth, annual change
3.3%
3.3%
3.5%
3.0%
3.4%
Australian economic growth, annual change
3.1%
1.4%
1.3%
2.2%
1.5%
Australian inflation, annual change
7.0%
4.2%
2.4%
3.7%
3.3%
Interest rate to large business, variable rate
4.45%
5.77%
5.69%
5.24%
5.95%
Exchange rate, per AUD
US$0.67
US$0.66
US$0.65
US$0.68
US$0.71
Global population, annual change
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.8%
0.8%
Australian population, annual change
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
Source: McGrath Research, ABARES, RBA, ABS, IMF
2
Rural environment Queensland
H2/26
Rainfall and water availability
Temperature
Queensland’s rainfall outlook is mixed from November to January. The Bureau of Meteorology forecasts aboveaverage rainfall across inland southern Queensland, with the wet signal increasing later in the outlook period. In contrast, below-average rainfall is likely across parts of northern Queensland, while other areas generally have roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
Queensland is expected to experience warmer-thanaverage conditions over the November to January period. The Bureau of Meteorology forecasts daytime and overnight temperatures to be above average across Australia. This warmer outlook applies alongside varied rainfall prospects across Queensland, ranging from wetter conditions in parts of the southern inland to drier conditions across parts of the north.
Bushfire risk
Farm expenses
Rural Queensland has a mixed spring outlook, with recent rainfall moderating bushfire risk across much of the state. AFAC highlights drier conditions across the southern interior, Darling Downs and Granite Belt. Below-average soil moisture, warmer temperatures and increased fuel curing could contribute to above-average fire danger across parts of southern Queensland during spring.
Farm expenses are expected to remain elevated in 2026–27, with ABARES forecasting broadacre farm costs of around $734,000 per farm. Fuel prices are expected to remain high, while wage, water, fodder and chemical costs continue to rise. Overall farm input prices are forecast to increase 1.7%, maintaining pressure on margins despite some easing in fertiliser costs.
Farm performance
Rural property prices
Australian farm profitability is expected to weaken in 2026– 27. ABARES forecasts average broadacre farm business profit to fall 39%, from $219,000 to $133,000 per farm in real terms. Lower crop and livestock production volumes, weaker real livestock prices and persistently high costs are expected to weigh on performance, with average farm cash income declining to $355,000.
Rural property prices across Queensland rose by 28.2% in 2025 to average $8,740 per hectare. This was after growing by 84% over the past five years and over the past two decades, increasing by a total of 288%. Looking forward based on projected levels of production, commodity prices and the cost of finance, Rabobank forecast land value growth across Australia of 2% in 2026 as the base case outlook.
Source: McGrath Research, ABARES, BOM, AFAC
3
Rural commodities Australian outlook
Cattle
H2/26
-4.2%
Australian cattle exported live, including all bovine for feeder and slaughter, breeding and dairy purposes had an estimated gross value of production 0.1% more in FY26 at $961.32 million, with an estimated 585,846 head of cattle exported. This is forecast to fall 3.9% at $923.60 million in FY27 with the export of 565,000 cattle. Cattle saleyard average price was estimated to rise 28.3% in FY26, to 783 cents per kilogram on carcass weight. These prices are forecast to decrease by 4.2%, at 750 cents per kilogram, based on the average of MLA's Heavy Steer and Processor Cow Indicators.
Sheep
-5.1%
Beef
Demand for beef was 18.0% lower in FY26 at 16.6 kilograms per person and this is likely to rise by 2.6% in FY27. The gross value of cattle and calf slaughtering production was estimated 33.4% higher in FY26 at $23.62 billion. The US import price for Australian beef is forecast at 745 US cents per kilogram in FY27, being down 5.1%. This was after recording a 20.1% increase for the cow 90CL cif estimated price, at 785 US cents per kilogram, in FY26.
-4.6%
+2.7%
Fisheries
Lamb meat consumption fell 15.5% at 5.20 kilograms per person in FY26 and is forecast to decrease 8.6% at 4.75 kilograms per person in FY27. The gross value of production was estimated at $1.43 billion in FY26 for lamb meat, sheep meat and sheep exported live including breeding stock. This is forecast to contract by 14.4% at $1.22 billion in FY27. Over this time, Australian lamb saleyard prices are expected to decline by 4.6% at 1,090 cents per kilogram on carcass weight, according to the MLA national trade lamb indicator.
The value of Australian fisheries production was estimated at $49.61 billion in FY26, sliding 0.8% on the previous year. Prawns (+19.3%) and rock lobster (+18.1%) recorded the strongest change in production. In FY27, rock lobster (+10.5%) and salmonoids including trout and salmon-like products (+3.5%) are forecast to experience the greatest uplift in production, with an overall 1.1% change in fisheries products to total $3.92 billion. Exported seafood is forecast to grow 2.7% during this time at $1.69 billion, where rock lobster ($864.88 million) and salmonoids including trout and salmon-like products ($336.77 million) are expected to record the highest values.
Australian Outlook, change from a year ago
FY23
FY24
FY25E
FY26E
FY27F
Cattle saleyard prices
-15.7%
-29.6%
30.9%
28.3%
-4.2%
Beef import prices in the US
-13.2%
1.0%
19.1%
20.1%
-5.1%
Lamb saleyard prices
-14.8%
-19.7%
42.1%
37.7%
-4.6%
Fisheries total value of exports
14.5%
-2.4%
3.7%
11.3%
2.7%
Source: McGrath Research, ABARES
4
Rural commodities Australian outlook
Pigs
H2/26
-10.8%
Demand for pig meat was 4.5% weaker in FY26 being 23.6 kilograms per person and this is forecast to be 1.9% higher in FY27. Pig slaughtering production grew 3.3% to be estimated at a gross value of $2.08 billion in FY26. This is forecast to decrease 5.7% in FY27 at $1.96 billion. Over-the-hooks prices were estimated to have grown by 3.8% in FY26, to be 456 cents per kilogram based on carcass weight, with -10.8% forecast for FY27.
Eggs
+6.0%
Poultry
The consumption of chicken meat equated to 54.2 kilograms per person in FY26 and this is forecast to be higher by 1.1% in FY27. The gross value of poultry slaughtering production, which includes chickens, duck, turkey plus other poultry rose 0.7% to be estimated at $4.18 billion in FY26. This is forecast to increase by 6.4% in FY27 at $4.45 billion. Over this same time, the export value of poultry meat is expected to be 6.0% higher at $161.20 million, following growth of 30.9% in FY26.
+0.5%
+3.5%
Dairy
Egg production in Australia continues to be reliant on stablity with incremental gains in output and being supported by efficient production systems. This market rose by 0.6% in FY26, reaching an estimated gross value of $1.40 billion, based on consumer demand and underlying input costs. Looking ahead to FY27, egg production is forecast to increase by 0.5%, lifting the total value of approximately $1.40 billion.
The total number of milking cows across Australia is expected at 1.25 million in FY27 after falling 2.0% the year before. The estimated gross value of production for dairy, which includes cows milk, butter, cheese and both whole and skim milk powders was 3.1% higher in FY26 at $6.15 billion. This is forecast to rise 2.2% to $6.29 billion in FY27. Australian average farmgate milk price growth is forecast at 3.5% to reach 76.1 cents per litre in FY27, after recording a 2.6% price increase in FY26.
Australian Outlook, change from a year ago
FY23
FY24
FY25E
FY26E
FY27F
Pigs over-the-hooks prices
6.8%
4.6%
11.0%
3.8%
-10.8%
Poultry total value of exports
10.2%
10.5%
-16.1%
30.9%
6.0%
Eggs value of production
0.0%
0.0%
7.8%
0.6%
0.5%
Milk farmgate prices
31.5%
-0.5%
-3.7%
2.6%
3.5%
Source: McGrath Research, ABARES
5
Rural commodities Australian outlook
Coarse grains
H2/26
+4.0%
In FY27, consumption demand for corn is forecast to be 7.1% lower, whilst demand for barley is likely to be down 0.7%. The gross value of barley production is expected to grow 0.7% at $5.15 billion, while sorghum production is likely fall 22.2% at $738.39 million. Malting barley prices were estimated to decrease by 3.7% in FY26, to $310 per tonne, whilst an increase of 4.0% at $322 per tonne, is forecast in FY27.
Oilseeds
+23.0%
Wheat
The weight of wheat demand globally was estimated to be 1.6% greater in FY26, whilst forecast 0.4% above this in FY27 with 826 million tonnes. Australia's gross value for wheat production in FY26 was estimated at $11.52 billion, growing 1.0%, whilst forecast to fall by 13.6% in FY27. Global wheat prices are forecast to be 23.0% higher in FY27 at US$315 per tonne, based on the indicator US no.2 hard red winter, fob Gulf. This followed a rise in FY26 of 0.5%.
+1.4%
+4.7%
Sugar
The global demand for oilseeds rose 3.8% in FY26 and is forecast in FY27 to rise by 2.9% to 718 million tonnes. Gross value of production in canola across Australia was estimated at $5.79 billion in FY26, after rising 19.1% during the year. FY27 is forecast to see a change in canola production of -4.8% to total $5.51 billion. Australian canola average prices declined 0.1% in FY26 and were estimated at $758 per tonne. This average price (delivered Melbourne) is forecast to increase by 1.4% at $768 per tonne.
Global consumption of sugar is forecast to be up 0.5% in FY27 at 192.02 million tonnes. Sugar production in Australia was estimated at a gross value of $1.43 billion in FY26, which was 27.4% lower than the previous year. Production is forecast to increase 8.8% in FY27. In FY26, global sugar prices were estimated to fall by 20.3% to 14.8 US cents per pound based on the nearby futures price, Intercontinental Exchange (New York No.11) contract. The FY27 forecast is 4.7% higher at 15.5 US cents per pound.
Australian Outlook, change from a year ago
FY23
FY24
FY25E
FY26E
FY27F
Malting barley prices
13.2%
-8.1%
-6.4%
-3.7%
4.0%
Global wheat prices
-2.8%
-24.8%
-12.8%
0.5%
23.0%
Canola export prices
-20.0%
-8.2%
14.7%
-0.1%
1.4%
Sugar global prices*
19.2%
-3.4%
-14.6%
-20.3%
4.7%
Source: McGrath Research, ABARES *Oct-Sep
6
Rural commodities Australian outlook
Horticulture
H2/26
+1.6%
The value of horticulture production was estimated at $18.61 billion in FY26, 0.6% lower than a year ago. By FY27, horticulture production is forecast to lift by 1.2%, to $18.84 billion. The value of horticulture exports is set to rise by 3.1%, to $4.42 billion. As a general trend, horticultural prices were estimated to have contracted by 0.5% in FY26, with 1.6% forecast for FY27.
Wool
-8.4%
Viticulture
Total crush of wine grapes in FY27 is forecast to fall 5.2% with 1,200 kilotonnes. An estimated total value of Australian wine grape production was 22.9% weaker in FY26, at $732.9 million, whilst this is likely to drop 4.5% at $700.2 million in FY27. Wine grape export prices were estimated to have fallen in FY26 by 2.3%, with -8.4% forecast in FY26 at $3.55/litre.
+15.3%
+12.3%
Cotton
The number of sheep shorn across Australia is forecast to rise 1.2% to 59.9 million in FY27. Total value of wool production was estimated to have grown by 21.6% in FY26, at $2.92 billion and is forecast to rise 16.2% at $3.40 billion in FY27. Wool prices grew by an estimated 37.1% in FY26, according to the Eastern Market Indicator (clean equivalent) whilst forecast to increase by 15.3% to 1,840 cents per kilogram, in FY27.
Around the world, the uptake for cotton in FY27 is forecast to rise 1.7% to 26.8 million tonnes. Cotton production value was estimated to have declined by 17.7% in FY26, to total $2.53 billion, and this is forecast to decline by 28.6% in FY27. In FY26, cotton prices are estimated to rise by 0.6% to 80.05 US cents per pound on the Cotlook 'A' index. The FY27 forecast is 12.3% higher at 89.91 US cents per pound.
Australian Outlook, change from a year ago
FY23
FY24
FY25E
FY26E
FY27F
Horticulture prices
7.9%
-0.2%
6.9%
-0.5%
1.6%
Wine grape prices
-7.8%
14.8%
8.7%
-2.3%
-8.4%
Wool prices
-6.3%
-10.8%
0.3%
37.1%
15.3%
Cotton global prices
-23.1%
-9.3%
-13.4%
0.6%
12.3%
Source: McGrath Research, ABARES
7
Rural property sales Update
Rural property sales
H2/26
-30%
Rural property sales, by annual number Rural Queensland
Rural Queensland broadacre farmland transactions tallied 728 sales in 2025, a downward trajectory of 29.6% from the previous year. As a benchmark, over the past five years, the annual average was 954 rural property sales, whilst the annual average since 2005 has been 981 sales.
Source: McGrath Research, ABARES
Share of national rural property sales
20%
The Queensland share of rural property sale transactions across Australia was 20% in 2025. This proportion of sales was the same as both one year ago and on par with 2005.
Share of national rural property sales, by number, 2025 Rural Queensland Source: McGrath Research, ABARES
Rural Queensland, 2025
Total Sales
Number of rural properties sold in past year
728
Change from a year ago
-30%
Change from 5 years ago
-27%
Change from 10 years ago
-37% Source: McGrath Research, ABARES
8
Rural property sales Update
H2/26
Major regions rural property sales
Rural property sales, by major regions Rural Queensland
Across the seven major regions in Rural Queensland, the South Queensland Coastal region recorded the highest number of broadacre farmland sales in 2025 with 257 transactions. This was followed by Eastern Darling Downs (159), Darling Downs & Central Highlands (138), North Queensland Coastal (101) and Central North with 40 sales. Looking back over the past year, it was the region of Central North which saw the best growth in the number of rural properties sold at 5.3%, then Eastern Darling Downs (-17.6%), West & South West (-21.4%), South Queensland Coastal (-30.9%) and North Queensland Coastal (-32.2%).
Source: McGrath Research, ABARES
Zoning rural property sales
Share of rural property sales, by zones Rural Australia
The wheat-sheep rural zone made up the largest proportion of broadacre farmland sales across Rural Australia with 53% (1,913 sales) in 2025. The rural zones considered high rainfall with 1,513 sales (42%) and pastoral with 110 sales (3%) made up the remainder. Back in 2020, the number of sales in the wheat-sheep zoning also led the tally (54%), followed by high rainfall (43%). The 3% of total share being pastoral zoned sales, has averaged less than 5% between the five year period.
Source: McGrath Research, ABARES
Rural Australia, Zones, 2025
High Rainfall
Wheat-Sheep
Pastoral
Number of rural properties sold in past year
1,513
1,913
110
Change from a year ago
-30%
-30%
-41%
Change from 5 years ago
-44%
-44%
-49% Source: McGrath Research, ABARES
9
Rural property prices Update
Average rural property price
H2/26
$8,740/ha
Change in average rural property prices Rural Queensland, per hectare
Rural property prices across Queensland rose by 28.2% in 2025 to average $8,740 per hectare. This was after growing by 84% over the past five years and over the past two decades, increasing by a total of 288%. Looking forward based on projected levels of production, commodity prices and the cost of finance, Rabobank forecast land value growth across Australia of 2% in 2026 as the base case outlook.
Source: McGrath Research, ABARES
Major regions rural property prices
Average rural property prices, by major regions Rural Queensland, per hectare
In Rural Queensland, the North Queensland Coastal region recorded the strongest broadacre farmland average price across the seven major regions with $12,815/ha in 2025. South Queensland Coastal ($10,282/ha) followed, then Eastern Darling Downs ($9,481/ha), Central North ($5,403/ha) and Darling Downs & Central Highlands ($4,260/ha). When benchmarked against 2024, it was the region of Charleville which saw the best performance at 113.9%, then Central North (32.1%), North Queensland Coastal (27.9%), South Queensland Coastal (26.4%) then Darling Downs & Central Highlands (13.0%). Source: McGrath Research, ABARES
Rural Queensland, 2025
Average Price
Rural property average price/hectare
$8,740/ha
Change from a year ago
28.2%
Change from 5 years ago
84.0% Source: McGrath Research, ABARES
10
Rural property prices Update
H2/26
Zoning rural property prices
Average rural property prices, by rural zones Rural Australia
Broadacre farmlands considered to be zoned high rainfall continued to achieve the highest average rural price at $12,114/ha in 2025, being 3.4% above the year before whilst 47% higher than back in 2020. Rural property prices in the wheat-sheep zone fell 1.0% throughout the year to be $8,015/ha at the end of 2025, whilst over the past five years prices have grown 71%. Pastoral zoned properties at an average value of $2,160/ha in 2025, were 59.6% higher in price than a year ago, whilst 169% more than back in 2020.
Source: McGrath Research, ABARES
Average rural property prices & annual rural property sales, by land use
Land use rural property prices & sales
Rural Australia
The average price for rural properties and the number of transactions varied significantly in the past year once land use was taken into account across Australia. Broadacre farmlands specialising in orchards recorded the highest average price at $40,217/ha with 149 sales in 2025, then by those with vineyards ($38,477/ha) and dairy ($26,998/ha) with 77 and 144 sales, respectively. Next, farmlands with sugarcane ($20,897/ha) followed with 50 sales, beef ($10,120/ha) with 407 sales and cropping ($9,891/ha) with a total of 329 transactions taking place over the same time.
Source: McGrath Research, ABARES
Rural Australia, Zones, 2025
High rainfall
Wheat-sheep
Pastoral
Rural property average price/hectare
$12,114/ha
$8,015/ha
$2,160/ha
Change from a year ago
3%
-1%
60%
Change from 5 years ago
47%
71%
169% Source: McGrath Research, ABARES
11
Definitions
Rural Queensland Rural Queensland refers to the area outside of ‘Greater Brisbane’ or is the ‘Rest of State’ for Queensland as defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, which covers properties most suitable for agricultural purposes. Gross Value of Production Gross value of production (GVP) refers to the total value of products produced on farms, measured at farmgate prices. That is, the prices received by producers before any processing, transport, or retail markups. ABARES The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), is the science and economics research division of the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry. Hectares All land area measurements in this report are expressed in hectares (ha) unless otherwise stated. One hectare equals 10,000 square metres, or approximately 2.47 acres. Currency All monetary values in this report are expressed in Australian dollars (AUD) unless otherwise stated.
Guiding you home
Michelle Ciesielski National Head of Research, McGrath Research www.mcgrath.com.au/research
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