M:
Headlines
Winter/26
Regional
New South Wales
Residential
Economy
Residential
Regional NSW recorded a higher number of residential sales over the past year Sales trended up 14% with a total of 67,144 transactions in the year ending Q1/26, outpacing the five year annual average of 62,110 sales A change in sales activity can be influenced by interest rates, economic confidence, housing supply, government policies and shifting population trends which impacts buyer demand. Isolating the 15,577 sales in the Q1/26 quarter, this was 16% below the previous quarter, whilst higher than the 15,327 five year quarterly average
Share of state annual sales
Regional NSW made up 40% of the total number of annual residential sales recorded in NSW at the end of Q1/26. This was higher than one year ago when the proportion was 38%, whilst below the 43% share recorded five years ago. A change in residential sales activity over the year to Q1/26 saw Regional NSW (+14%) outpacing Sydney (+6%)
Rolling tally of annual residential sales
Regional NSW
Share of state annual sales, by number
Regional NSW
Regional NSW, Q1/26
Regional NSW homes are taking less time to sell than one year ago Residential homes averaged 53 days on market in Q1/26, from the time they were listed, to the day they went under contract This average duration was 57 days the quarter before (-4 days) and 60 days one year ago (-7 days) A lower number of days on market typically indicates that homes are selling more quickly, often reflecting strong buyer demand and well priced, desirable properties. In contrast, a higher number of days on market may signal slower buyer activity or that homes are priced above current market expectations Looking back over the past five years, it has taken 51 days on average, to sell a home
Average days on the market
Regional NSW
More Regional NSW homes have been newly listed for sale than this time last year. Newly advertised listings in Regional NSW were 3 7% higher in the month of March 2026 than the equivalent period last year, according to Cotality. This change in new listings trended above the Australian average of -3 3% and above the 2 5% across Australian capital cities
Overall, the total number of homes listed for sale in Regional NSW is down on last year. Regional NSW's total number of listings in the month of March 2026 were 17 1% below the equivalent period last year, according to Cotality. By comparison, the Australian average change for total listings was -11 5% and across Australian capital cities was -15 7%
Regional NSW, Q1/26
Tracking average prices Regional NSW Average price $862,800
Regional NSW residential property prices have trended higher than a year ago Prices across Regional NSW rose by 6 4% in the year ending Q1/26, with a 0 6% increase recorded in the most recent quarter As a result, the average residential value reached $862,800. Residential values shift with changes in interest rates, supply and demand, economic conditions, population trends and local infrastructure which influences market appeal and buyer capacity Annual residential price growth has averaged 10 8% over the past five years
Forecast for average prices Regional NSW Price outlook
Looking ahead, Regional NSW residential prices are likely to rise over the coming year McGrath Research forecast Regional NSW residential property prices to increase by 4% at the end of 2026, followed by a further 1% rise in 2027 Residential price forecasts consider borrowing capacity, the balance of supply and demand, economic conditions, population trends and local infrastructure which shapes affordability, demand and market direction.
Regional NSW, Q1/26
Vacancy
The number of residential rental homes in Regional NSW is currently undersupplied Regional NSW rental vacancy was recorded at 1 8% at the end of Q1/26, rising 4 bps in the quarter whilst falling 6 bps over the past year. Generally, around 3% vacancy is considered a balanced market between rental supply and demand. Below this equilibrium is considered to be an undersupplied pool of rental homes, which places upward pressure on weekly rents For the past five years, Regional NSW residential rental vacancy has averaged 1 6%
Yield
+3 bps
Regional NSW gross rental yields have trended higher over the past year Residential yields lifted 3 bps in the Q1/26 quarter to be 4.08% across Regional NSW, whilst 3 bps higher compared to a year ago A yield pushing beyond 4% is more desirable for investment properties located in capital cities, while below this, tends to show higher property values relative to rental income Regional NSW gross rental yields have averaged 4 06% over the past five years
Residential rental vacancy
Regional NSW
from a quarter ago
from a year ago
Gross rental yield
Regional NSW
Residential rents Update
Average weekly rent $635
Tracking average weekly rents Regional NSW
Residential rents across Regional NSW trended above the weekly rate recorded a year ago Regional NSW rents rose 2 4% in Q1/26, whilst increasing 6 7% over the past year, to stand at an average $635 per week Rent changes are driven by rental supply, tenant demand, migration trends, economic conditions and investor activity which together impact the vacancy rate For the past five years, Regional NSW rents grew an average 7.4% per annum.
Regional NSW Rental outlook +8%
Forecast for average rents
The Regional NSW residential market is continuing to experience upward pressure on weekly rents McGrath Research forecast Regional NSW rents to rise 8% at the end of 2026, with a further 6% rise likely in 2027 The rental forecast takes into consideration new and existing supply levels, population changes, economic conditions and upgraded local infrastructure which can influence future tenant demand, vacancy rates and rental growth
Local Government Area
Regional NSW, Q1/26
Definitions
Regional NSW
Regional New South Wales (NSW) refers to the area outside of ‘Greater Sydney’ or ‘Rest of State’ for NSW as defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Interest rate target
The cash rate target is the interest rate set by the Reserve Bank of Australia to influence borrowing costs, economic activity, and inflation across the economy
Economic growth
Economic growth is the rise in a country’s production of goods and services over time, reflecting how much the economy is expanding
Unemployment
The unemployment rate measures the share of people in the labour force who are willing and able to work but currently without employment
Sales velocity
The length of time a property spends on the market from listing to exchange, with the duration measurement represented as being number of days.
Average price
Average price is the calculation of prices or values divided by the number of properties It represents the overall price level across a market and is useful for tracking trends over time
Yield
Gross rental yield is the annual rental income of a property divided by its market value, showing the return before expenses.
Local Government Area
A Local Government Area (LGA) is a defined geographic region administered by a local council responsible for community services, planning, and local regulations.
To be included in this publication, each regional LGA was required to have at least 10,000 residential dwellings within its council boundary This threshold helps ensure that the area provides a sufficiently robust and reliable sample size for meaningful analysis
Population growth
Population growth increases the number of people needing homes, boosting housing demand and influencing supply, prices, and future development needs
Sales
Sales of residential homes refers to the number of houses or apartments sold within a specific area and time period, most commonly being reported within the quarter or year
Listing
New listings are recently advertised homes, while total listings represent all properties currently for sale in the housing market at a given time.
Vacancy
Total residential vacancy refers to the proportion of rental properties unoccupied and available for tenants at a specific point in time
Average weekly rent
Average weekly rent is the calculation of rentals divided by the number of properties It represents the overall rent level across a market and is useful for tracking trends over time.
Guiding you home
Michelle Ciesielski National Head of Research, McGrath Research
www.mcgrath.com.au/research
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