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Headlines
Autumn/26
Melbourne Residential
Residential sales
Update
Sales +12%
Melbourne recorded a higher number of residential sales over the past year Sales trended up 12 4% with a total of 100,543 transactions in the year ending Q4/25, outpacing the five year annual average of 84,738 sales A change in sales activity can be influenced by interest rates, economic confidence, housing supply, government policies, and shifting population trends that affect buyer demand and market conditions Isolating the 28,210 sales in the Q4/25 quarter, this was 9 4% above the previous quarter, whilst higher than the 22,278 five year quarterly average
Auctions
1,617
In the last active week of Q4/25, 1,617 residential auctions were held across Melbourne. According to Cotality, 58.2% of these homes were sold under the hammer Clearance rates above 70% suggest strong demand and a seller’s market, while a rate below 60% indicates weaker demand and a buyer’s market This result was lower than 64 3% one quarter ago when 224 auctions were held By comparison, the same quarter last year saw 60 5% homes sold, from 1,236 auctions
Rolling tally of annual residential sales
Melbourne
58.2%
Auction clearance rate
Melbourne
Melbourne, Q4/25
Duration -5 days
Melbourne homes are taking less time to sell than one year ago Residential homes averaged 31 days on market in Q4/25, from the time they were listed, to the day they went under contract This average duration was 34 days (-3 days) the quarter before and 36 days (-5 days) one year ago A lower number of days on market typically indicates that homes are selling more quickly, often reflecting strong buyer demand and well priced, desirable properties. In contrast, a higher number of days on market may signal slower buyer activity or that homes are priced above current market expectations Looking back over the past five years, it has taken 31 days on average, to sell a home
Average days on the market
More Melbourne homes have been newly listed for sale than this time last year. Newly advertised listings in Melbourne were 15 5% higher in the month of December 2025 than the equivalent period last year, according to Cotality. This change in new listings trended above the Australian average of 1 1% and above the 0 1% across Australian capital cities
Overall, the total number of homes listed for sale in Melbourne is down on last year. Melbourne's total number of listings in the month of December 2025 were 12 6% below the equivalent period last year, according to Cotality. By comparison, the Australian average change for total listings was -15 8% and across Australian capital cities was -14 4%
Melbourne, Q4/25
Residential prices
price $878,100
Melbourne residential property prices have trended higher than a year ago Prices across Melbourne rose by 6 5% in the year ending Q4/25, with a 1 7% increase recorded in the most recent quarter As a result, the median residential value reached $878,100. Residential values shift with changes in interest rates, supply and demand, economic conditions, population trends and local infrastructure which influences market appeal and buyer capacity Annual residential price growth has averaged 2 4% over the past five years
Price outlook +4%
Tracking median prices
Looking ahead, Melbourne residential prices are likely to rise over the coming year McGrath Research forecast Melbourne residential property prices to increase by 4% at the end of 2026, followed by a further 3% rise in 2027 Residential price forecasts consider interest rates, the balance of supply and demand, economic conditions, population trends and local infrastructure which shapes affordability, demand and market direction
Forecast for median prices
Melbourne, Q4/25
The number of residential rental homes in Melbourne is currently undersupplied Melbourne rental vacancy was recorded at 2 4% at the end of Q4/25, falling 10 bps in the quarter whilst changing 0 bps over the past year according to REIA Generally, around 3% vacancy is considered a balanced market between rental supply and demand. Below this equilibrium is considered to be an undersupplied pool of rental homes, which places upwards pressure on weekly rents For the past five years, Melbourne residential rental vacancy has averaged 3 4%
Melbourne gross rental yields have trended stable over the past year Residential yields fell 5 bps in the Q4/25 quarter to be 3.85% across Melbourne, whilst similar compared to a year ago A yield pushing beyond 4% is more desirable for investment properties located in capital cities, while below this, tends to show higher property values relative to rental income Melbourne gross rental yields have averaged 3 31% over the past five years
from a year ago
Residential rents
Median weekly rent
Residential rents across Melbourne trended above the weekly rate recorded a year ago Melbourne rents rose 0 9% in Q4/25, whilst increasing 2 7% over the past year, to stand at $580 per week Rent changes are driven by rental supply, tenant demand, migration trends, economic conditions and investor activity which together impact the vacancy rate. For the past five years, Melbourne rents grew an average 5 9% per annum.
Tracking median weekly rents
Rental outlook +5%
The Melbourne residential market is continuing to experience upward pressure on weekly rents McGrath Research forecast Melbourne rents to rise 5% at the end of 2026, with a further 4% rise likely in 2027 Rental forecasts take into consideration new and existing supply levels, tenant demand, population changes, economic conditions and local infrastructure all which can influence vacancy rates, rental pressure and future rental growth
Forecast for median rents
Melbourne, Q4/25
Definitions
Melbourne
Melbourne refers to the Greater Capital City Statistical Area or ‘Greater Melbourne’ as defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
Interest rate target
The cash rate target is the interest rate set by the Reserve Bank of Australia to influence borrowing costs, economic activity, and inflation across the economy
Unemployment
The unemployment rate measures the share of people in the labour force who are willing and able to work but currently without employment
Sales
Sales of residential homes refers to the number of houses or apartments sold within a specific area and time period, most commonly being reported within the quarter or year
Duration
The length of time a property spends on the market from listing to exchange, with the duration measurement represented as being number of days.
Median price
The median price is the midpoint of all property sale prices, where an equal number of homes sell above and below that value
Yield
Gross rental yield is the annual rental income of a property divided by its market value, showing the return before expenses.
Local Government Area
A Local Government Area (LGA) is a defined geographic region administered by a local council responsible for community services, planning, and local regulations.
Economic growth
Economic growth is the rise in a country’s production of goods and services over time, reflecting how much the economy is expanding
Population growth
Population growth increases the number of people needing homes, boosting housing demand and influencing supply, prices, and future development needs
Auction clearance rate
Auction clearance rates show the percentage of properties sold at auction compared with those taken to auction over a given period
Listing
New listings are recently advertised homes, while total listings represent all properties currently for sale in the housing market at a given time.
Vacancy
Total residential vacancy refers to the proportion of rental properties unoccupied and available for tenants at a specific point in time
Median weekly rent
Median weekly rent is the midpoint of all weekly rental prices, with half of properties renting for more and half for less.
Guiding you home
Michelle Ciesielski National Head of Research, McGrath Research
www.mcgrath.com.au/research
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