Volume 2, Number 9
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March/April, 2026
Whale Counts Holding Steady Amidst Change E By Taryn Kama
ach winter, something ancient stirs in us as the first humpback whales surface off Maui’s shores. People gather along the coastline not just with binoculars, but with awe—scanning the horizon for breaching koholā (humpback whales) as if greeting returning relatives. For many in Hawai‘i, whales are more than marine mammals; they are symbols of mystery, memory, and connection, weaving science, culture, and emotion into a shared seasonal ritual. That deep human connection is one reason more than 1,000 community volunteers participate annually in whale counts across the islands. 30th Anniversary of Sanctuary Whale Count While it’s peak season for the return of humpback whales to Maui, this winter also marked the 30th anniversary of Sanctuary Ocean Count—a milestone that reflects not only decades of data collection, but decades of devotion. Launched in 1996, Sanctuary Ocean Count is the signature volunteer monitoring program of the Hawaiian Islands Humpback Whale National Marine Sanctuary, according to its website. On designated days during peak season, trained volunteers gather at shoreline sites across Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, Moloka‘i and Hawai‘i Island to record whale sightings, behaviors and calves in nearshore waters. The Sanctuary’s Ocean Count operates statewide, while Pacific Whale Foundation’s Great Whale Count takes place at 12 sites on Maui and one on Lāna‘i. The Great Whale Count began in 1995, and in 2018 the two programs began coordinating efforts. The most recent count was held Jan. 31. Volunteers counted 694 whales off of Maui Nui. “These counts are snapshots,” said Jens Currie, chief scientist for Pacific Whale Foundation. They are invaluable for understanding seasonal presence and engaging community scientists, he said, and when paired with long-term research, they help define population trends. Pacific Whale Foundation has studied humpback whales in Hawai‘i since 1981. That long-term commitment contributed to one of the most significant recent publications on North Pacific humpbacks: the 2024 update to SPLASH (Structure of Populations, Levels of Abundance and Status of Humpbacks).
“ They’re (false killer whales) are unique to Hawai‘i. If we lose them, we lose an irreplaceable part of our marine ecosystem. ”
A research vessel from the Pacific Whale Foundation observes a whale in Maui. Published in Royal Society Open Science as “Bellwethers of Change,” the peer-reviewed study brought together nearly 70 co-authors and analyzed the largest individual photo-identification dataset ever assembled for a cetacean population. Researchers examined humpback trends from 2002 through 2021 across breeding grounds in Hawai‘i, Japan, Mexico and the Philippines, and feeding areas from Alaska to Russia. The findings are complex. Whale Trends North Pacific humpback whale numbers peaked in 2012 at an estimated 30,450 whales after decades of recovery following the end of commercial whaling. Following the 2014–2015 Pacific marine heatwave, researchers documented a significant decline. By 2021, the estimate had fallen to 22,198 whales. “That doesn’t necessarily mean 8,000 whales died,” Currie cautioned. “It likely reflects a combination of factors, including changes in migration patterns and distribution.” The marine heatwave, intensified by a strong El Niño cycle and broader climate trends, disrupted ocean productivity. Warmer waters reduced plankton growth, affecting krill and small schooling fish—key food for humpbacks. Because humpbacks rely on building fat reserves in northern feeding grounds before migrating to Hawai‘i’s warm but nutrient-poor waters to breed and
give birth, nutritional stress can influence whether some whales migrate in a given year. Researchers observed signs that the population shifted from a recovery phase to what the study describes as a climate-response phase, where environmental variability plays a larger role in abundance and distribution. Preliminary findings from a second Hawai‘ifocused study under peer review suggest similar trends: a peak around 2012, a post-heatwave decline, and early signs of gradual recovery. Monitoring Other Species While humpbacks capture the spotlight each winter, Currie emphasizes that other marine mammals require urgent attention—particularly false killer whales. The main Hawaiian Islands population of false killer whales is federally listed as endangered and exists nowhere else in the world. Since 2010, the population has declined from roughly 201 individuals to about 139. “They’re unique to Hawai‘i,” Currie said. “If we lose them, we lose an irreplaceable part of our marine ecosystem.” Unlike humpbacks, false killer whales do not migrate long distances to rebuild energy reserves. They must feed year-round, often competing with commercial fisheries for tuna and mahi-mahi. Drone research has documented signs of nutritional stress
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Maui Scientist Aims to Find ET Life ..............3 Havens Chop House Food Review.........................5 Balloon Artist Creates Smiles..................................6 Events Calendar .........................................8-9 Classified Ads................................................12