WhichAssetHasPerformedthe BestSince1945?Report2025-004
Report2025No.4
PreparedbyLouisBéduneau
Date:August15,2025
Abstract
Thisreportanalyzestheperformanceofvariousassetclasses—stocks,bonds, realestate,andcommodities—from1945to2025.Wefocusonthebest-performing assetclassinsixspecificchronologicalphases.UsingofficialdatafromtheIMF, WorldBank,andmarketindices,thestudyprovidestableswithvaluesinbillions USDandtheirpercentageincreases,identifiesthetop-performingstockssince1945 andin2020–2025,comparesperformanceacrosseachphase,andproposesamodel toidentifytheeconomicphasesbyasset(2).
1Introduction
Theglobaleconomyisshapedbytheperformanceofvariousassetclasses,eachcontributinguniquelytowealthcreationandfinancialstability.Investorsseekingtoallocatetheir assetstovaluesthatappreciate,oratleastdonotdepreciaterelativetoothers,mustregularlyassessthemarket.Despitedifferenteconomicphases,whichassethasperformed thebestsince1945?Thestudiedassetsare:stocks(equityincompanies,offeringhigh growthpotentialbuthighvolatility),bonds(debtsecuritiesprovidingstableincome), realestate(propertiesvaluedforappreciationandinflationprotection),andcommodities(tangibleassetslikegoldandoil,influencedbysupplyanddemand).Currencyand preciousmetals,thoughrelevant,arecontextualizedwithincommoditiesoreconomic conditions(seeSection 2).Thisreportexaminestheirevolutionfrom1945to2025across sixeconomicphases,identifyingthebest-performingassetclassperphase,thetopstock values(seePart 4),andamodeltounderstandcurrenteconomictrends(2).
2Methodology
Thisstudyquantitativelyanalyzestheperformanceofstocks(S),bonds(B),realestate (R),andcommodities(C)from1945to2025,dividedintosixchronologicalphases:
• 1945–1971:Post-WorldWarIIreconstructionandBrettonWoods
• 1971–1980:EndofBrettonWoods,stagflation
• 1980–2000:Globalizationandbullmarkets
• 2000–2008:Internetbubbleandpre-crisis
• 2008–2020:Financialcrisisandrecovery
• 2020–2025:Pandemicandtechnologicalacceleration
2.1AssetClasses
• Stocks(S):Equityinlistedcompanies,measuredbymarketcapitalization(S&P 500,MSCIWorld).Returnsincludedividends,in2025USD(adjustedforinflation fromhistoricaldata)(1).
• Bonds(B):Publicandprivatedebt,measuredbyoutstandingmarketvalue(Bloomberg GlobalAggregateBondIndex,BIS)(5).
• RealEstate(R):Residentialandcommercialproperties,measuredbymarket value(IMFGlobalHousePriceIndex,Savills)(3).
• Commodities(C):Includespreciousmetals(P,e.g.,gold)andothergoods(e.g., oil),measuredbypriceindices(WorldBank)(4).Currency(M)iscontextualized withineconomicconditions.
2.2Glossary
• Y:Year
• S:Stocks
• B:Bonds
• R:RealEstate
• C:Commodities
• M:Currency(contextualizedinCoreconomicconditions)
• P:PreciousMetals(subcategoryofC)
ValuesareinbillionsUSD(adjustedfor2025inflation,USCPIbase),withannual percentageincreasescalculatedforthespecifiedyears.Pre-1980dataareinterpolated fromhistoricalseries(1).Thebest-performingassetclassperphaseisidentifiedby annualizedreturns(geometricmeanofannualreturns).Thetop10stockvaluesare selectedbymarketcapitalizationgrowth(seePart 4).
3Part1:Best-PerformingAssetClassbyPhase
Thetablesshowvalues(billionsUSD,adjustedto2025)andpercentageincreasesforall assetclasses,withtotalsforthebest-performingclass,basedondatafrom(1; 3; 4; 5).
3.1Phase1:1945–1971(Stocks)
Table1: ValuesandGrowthofAssets(1945–1971,BillionsUSD,%Increase)
Y S(BlnUSD)S%B(BlnUSD)B%R(BlnUSD)R%C(BlnUSD)C%
Stocks(S)dominate(8–10%annualized,calculatedbygeometricmean)duetopostWorldWarIIindustrialgrowth(1945–1971),outperformingbonds(B,3–5%annualized), realestate(R,5–7%annualized),andcommodities(C,2–3%annualized,Plimitedby goldpeggedat$35/ozuntil1971)(1).SeePart 5 forcomparison.
3.2Phase2:1971–1980(Commodities)
Table2: ValuesandGrowthofAssets(1971–1980,BillionsUSD,%Increase)
Y S(BlnUSD)S%B(BlnUSD)B%R(BlnUSD)R%C(BlnUSD)C%
Commodities(C,drivenbyP,goldrisingfrom$35/ozin1971to$800/ozin1980)dominate(15–20%annualized)duetopost-BrettonWoodsstagflation(1971–1980).Stocks (S,4–6%annualized),realestate(R,7–9%annualized),andbonds(B,negativereal returnsduetohighinflation)lagbehind(4).SeePart 5 forcomparison.
3.3Phase3:1980–2000(Stocks)
Stocks(S)dominate(12–15%annualized)duetoglobalizationandthetechboom(1980–2000,includingthedot-comrise).Bonds(B,8–10%annualized)andrealestate(R,8–10% annualized)performwell;commodities(C,0–2%annualized,Pweakwithstagnantgold post-1980)lag(1).SeePart 5 forcomparison.
Table3: ValuesandGrowthofAssets(1980–2000,BillionsUSD,%Increase)
Y S(BlnUSD)S%B(BlnUSD)B%R(BlnUSD)R%C(BlnUSD)C%
Table4: ValuesandGrowthofAssets(2000–2008,BillionsUSD,%Increase)
Y S(BlnUSD)S%B(BlnUSD)B%R(BlnUSD)R%C(BlnUSD)C%
3.4Phase4:2000–2008(RealEstate)
Realestate(R)dominates(7–10%annualized)beforethe2008financialcrisis,drivenby theglobalhousingboom(2000–2008).Commodities(C,5–8%annualized,Pstrongwith risinggold),bonds(B,4–6%annualized),andstocks(S,0–3%annualized,impactedby thedot-combust)underperform(3).SeePart 5 forcomparison.
3.5Phase5:2008–2020(Stocks)
Table5: ValuesandGrowthofAssets(2008–2020,BillionsUSD,%Increase)
Y S(BlnUSD)S%B(BlnUSD)B%R(BlnUSD)R%C(BlnUSD)C%
Stocks(S)dominate(10–12%annualized)post-2008financialcrisis,drivenbyeconomicrecoveryandaccommodativemonetarypolicies(2008–2020).Realestate(R,5–7%annualized),bonds(B,3–5%annualized),andcommodities(C,3–5%annualized,P volatilewithgoldfluctuations)follow(1).SeePart 5 forcomparison.
3.6Phase6:2020–2025(Stocks)
Stocks(S)dominate(8–10%annualized)duetoartificialintelligenceandtechnological acceleration(2020–2025,post-COVID-19pandemic).Realestate(R,5–7%annualized), commodities(C,5–7%annualized,Pstrongwithrisinggold),andbonds(B,0–2%annualized,impactedbylowrates)lag(2).SeePart 5 forcomparison.
Table6: ValuesandGrowthofAssets(2020–2025,BillionsUSD,%Increase) Y S(BlnUSD)S%B(BlnUSD)B%R(BlnUSD)R%C(BlnUSD)C%
4Part2:MostImprovedAssetClass
4.1Part2.1:MostImprovedSince1945(Stocks)
Stocks(S)dominatesince1945(8–10%annualized),growingfrom500to55,000billion USD,drivenbytechnologicalinnovationandeconomicgrowth(1).Thetop10stocks, basedonmarketcapitalizationgrowthasofAugust15,2025,are:
1. AppleInc.:Technologicalinnovation,3,000billionUSDmarketcap.
2. MicrosoftCorp.:Softwareandclouddominance.
3. Amazon.comInc.:E-commerceandcloudleader.
4. AlphabetInc.:GrowthinsearchandAI.
5. NVIDIACorp.:LeaderinGPUsandAIchips.
6. TeslaInc.:Electricvehiclesandenergy.
7. JPMorganChase&Co.:Financialresilience.
8. ExxonMobilCorp.:Longevityinenergy.
9. Johnson&Johnson:Stabilityinhealthcare.
10. Procter&Gamble:Consistencyinconsumergoods.
4.2Part2.2:MostImprovedin2020–2025(Stocks)
Stocks(S)dominate(8–10%annualized),growingfrom40,000to55,000billionUSD, drivenbyAIanddigitalization(2020–2025)(2).Thetop10stocks,basedonmarket capitalizationgrowthasofAugust15,2025,are:
1. NVIDIACorp.:AIandsemiconductorboom.
2. TeslaInc.:Electricvehiclemarketexpansion.
3. AppleInc.:Innovationindevicesandservices.
4. MicrosoftCorp.:GrowthincloudandAI.
5. AlphabetInc.:StrengthinAIandadvertising.
6. Amazon.comInc.:Cloudande-commercedominance.
7. MetaPlatformsInc.:Metaverseandsocialmedia.
8. BroadcomInc.:Semiconductorsandsoftware.
9. EliLilly&Co.:Healthcareinnovation.
10. TaiwanSemiconductor:Globalchipleader.
5Part3:ComparativeEvolutionofPhases
• 1945–1971(S):Stocks(8–10%annualized)dominateduetoindustrialgrowth, outperformingrealestate(5–7%annualized),bonds(3–5%annualized),andcommodities(2–3%annualized,Pweak)(1).
• 1971–1980(C):Commodities(15–20%annualized,drivenbyP)excelinstagflation,aheadofrealestate(7–9%annualized),stocks(4–6%annualized),andbonds (negativerealreturns)(4).
• 1980–2000(S):Stocks(12–15%annualized)dominatewithtechnology,followed bybonds(8–10%annualized),realestate(8–10%annualized),andcommodities (0–2%annualized,Pweak)(1).
• 2000–2008(R):Realestate(7–10%annualized)dominatespre-crisis,aheadof commodities(5–8%annualized,Pstrong),bonds(4–6%annualized),andstocks (0–3%annualized)(3).
• 2008–2020(S):Stocks(10–12%annualized)reboundpost-crisis,outperforming realestate(5–7%annualized),bonds(3–5%annualized),andcommodities(3–5% annualized,Pvolatile)(1).
• 2020–2025(S):Stocks(8–10%annualized)dominatewithAI,followedbyreal estate(5–7%annualized),commodities(5–7%annualized,Pstrong),andbonds (0–2%annualized)(2).
Stocksdominatelong-term,exceptininflationary(1971–1980,C)orspeculative(2000–2008,R)periods.Bondslaginlow-interest-rateenvironments(seeSection 6 foranalysis).
6Summary
• Reconstruction(1945–1971,2008–2020):Stocksandrealestatethrivewith economicrecovery(1).
• Inflationary(1971–1980):Commodities(drivenbyP)excelasaninflationhedge (4).
• Growth(1980–2000):Stocksandbondsbenefitfromglobalization(1).
• Speculative(2000–2008):Realestatedominateswiththehousingboom(3).
• Technological(2020–2025):StocksdominatewithAI(2).
6.1Asset-SpecificModels
Thefollowingequationsestimateannualizedreturns(R)foreachassetclassbasedon economicfactorsperphase,withcoefficients(α,β,γ,δ,ϵ,ζ,η)reflectingsensitivity(1):
• Stocks(S):DrivenbyGDPgrowth(G)andearnings(E):
s = αG + βE
• Bonds(B):Influencedbyinterestrates(I)minusinflation(F ): Rb = γ(I F )
Example:In2020–2025, I ≈ 2%, F ≈ 3%, γ ≈ 1,yielding Rb ≈−1%
• RealEstate(R):Tiedtourbanization(U)andinterestrates(I):
r = δU ϵI Example:In2020–2025, U ≈ 4%, I ≈ 2%, δ ≈ 2, ϵ ≈ 0 5,yielding Rr ≈ 7%
• Commodities(C):Drivenbyinflation(F )andsupplyshocks(Ss,e.g.,oildisruptionsfornon-P,goldforP): Rc = ζF + ηSs
Example:In2020–2025, F ≈ 3%, Ss ≈ 2%, ζ ≈ 1 5, η ≈ 1,yielding Rc ≈ 6 5%
6.2ModelforIdentifyingAssetClasses
Define Rs,Rb,Rr,Rc astheannualizedreturnsofS,B,R,C.Calculatethedominance ratio: D = max(Rs,Rb,Rr,Rc) ∑(Rs,Rb,Rr,Rc)
If D> 0.4,oneclassdominates(e.g.,Sin2020–2025, D ≈ 0.45, Rs ≈ 9%).If D< 0.3, thephaseisbalanced.Currentdataindicateatechnology-drivenphasedominatedby stocks(2).
7Conclusion
Stocks(S)arethemostimprovedassetclasssince1945,growingfrom500to55,000 billionUSD,exceptin1971–1980(C,commodities)and2000–2008(R,realestate)(see Part 3).The2020–2025phase,drivenbytechnologyandartificialintelligence,reinforces stockdominance(seePart 4).Asset-specificmodelsandthedominanceratioidentify thecurrentphaseasstock-led,aidinginvestmentstrategies(seeSection 6).Thisanalysishighlightsthevalueofhistoricaltrendsanddiversification.Inanuncertainperiod regardingmonetarycreation,wecanassumeanewmodelhasemergedsincethehealth crisis.Withtariffs,thechangewillbesignificant,andthus,politicalchoicesmustconsiderneweconomicopportunities(2).Supply-sidepolicieswillbenefitseveralcompanies withproductioncapabilities,andvirtuousstateswillbefavoredbyinvestors.
8Limitations
• DataGaps:Pre-1980datarelyoninterpolationfromhistoricalseries,risking inaccuracies(1).
• GlobalAggregation:Regionalvariations(e.g.,emergingvs.developedmarkets) maybeoversimplified(3).
• InflationAdjustments:Assumptionsin2025USD(USCPIbase)mayvaryby adjustmentmethod(5).
• BiasTowardS:Thetop10stocksfocusonUSmarkets,underrepresentingemergingmarkets(e.g.,China,India)(1).
• ModelSimplicity:Assetequationsanddominanceratioassumestablereturns, lessaccurateinvolatileperiods(e.g.,unforeseencrises)(2).
• ScopeofMandP:Currency(M)andpreciousmetals(P)arecontextualizedin Coreconomicconditions,notfullyisolated(4).
• ImpactofMonetaryCreation:Monetarycreation(e.g.,post-2008centralbank policies)significantlyaffectsassetvalues,notfullyquantifiedhere(5).
References
[1] Damodaran,A.,“HistoricalReturnsonStocks,Bonds,Cash,RealEstate,andGold,” 2025. https://www.awealthofcommonsense.com
[2] Quantalys,“2024Risk/ReturnTable,”2025. https://www.quantalys.com
[3] InternationalMonetaryFund,“GlobalHousePriceIndex,”2025. https://www.imf. org
[4] WorldBank,“CommodityPriceData,”2025. https://www.worldbank.org
[5] Bloomberg,“GlobalBondIndex,”2025. https://www.bloomberg.com