ExecutiveSummary
Followingthesignificantdownturninhousesalesvolumesandpropertyvaluesover2022and 2023,activitylevelssubsequentlyrecoveredthroughout2024and2025,althoughpriceshave remainedbroadlyflatatthenationallevel.Aswemovedinto2026,originalexpectationswere forsalesvolumestocontinuetotrendhigherandpropertyvaluestofinallydriftupwardstoo.So far,however,activityhasbeensoftandtheIranconflicthasaddedanextralayerofuncertainty
Indeed, over January, February, and March, property sales have actually been below the levels from the same months in 2025 – the falls haven’t been huge, but the soft start to the year does reinforce the cautious attitude that still prevails from both buyers and sellers Buyers certainly aren ’t rushing, given a still-elevated stock of listings available to purchase
The Cotality Home Value Index did manage to record small gains in both February and March, of 0.2% each month, with main centres such as Christchurch and Dunedin edging higher, alongside continued resilience in ‘provincial’ markets such as Invercargill The strong agricultural sector has no doubt buoyed sentiment in those areas to some extent By contrast, Auckland and Wellington, where the services sector (which is soft) plays a bigger role, have remained subdued
Meanwhile, with the Iran conflict still rolling on, economic uncertainty continues to build and this will tend to undermine sentiment in the housing market too Mortgage rates have begun to drift upwards and the latest economic indicators are weakening – both of which would be dampening influences on property sales and values We may not necessarily see an official cash rate rise in the near term, but the chances of a lift in September or even July are steadily growing, as the RBNZ attempts to stifle ‘second round’ inflation (e g higher wage demands, raised inflation expectations).
For now, however, first home buyers remain very active right across the country, as they capitalise on reduced mortgage rates, lower house prices, access to KiwiSaver for at least part of the deposit, and also tapping into the low deposit lending allowances at the banks By contrast, given economic uncertainty, relocating owner-occupiers are quieter than normal
Mortgaged multiple property owners, including the cliched ‘Mum and Dad’ investors, have made a measured comeback, recently accounting for 24-25% of property purchases They ’ re also helped by lower house prices and mortgage rates, as well as full interest deductibility That being said, rents are flat at best across many parts of the country, and this weakness is also keeping a lid on gross yields for investors (even though prices are also soft)
In the meantime, operating costs for investors have risen (e g council rates and home insurance), while there is also some perceived political risk too, in the form of possible capital gains tax after the election and potentially the phased removal of interest deductibility too. To be fair, a small lift in net migration and reduced rental listings could see rents flatten out, but strong growth doesn’t seem particularly likely in the short term at least
Bringing all of this together, after around 90,000 sales in 2025, there should be some sort of further increase in activity this year, but our original modelled forecast of 100,000 deals could now be too optimistic Some regions should continue to see house price growth, but unless Iran is resolved shortly, the national median could be broadly flat again this year
All in all, this downwards leg of the property market cycle has already been in progress for more than four years, and all else equal, 2026 may not be too much different
PropertyValues
The Cotality hedonic Home Value Index (HVI) showed that national median property values edged up by 0 2% in each of February and March Key markets such as Auckland and Wellington remain a little sluggish, but Christchurch and Dunedin have increased, and a number of provincial areas are showing property value resilience too
This shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise. After all, mortgage rates are significantly lower than the peak in mid2024 and there have been stronger signs coming through that an economic upturn has also started The stock of listings available on the market has eased downwards as well, and of course affordability looks a lot more normal too
That being said, the Iran conflict puts a whole new layer of uncertainty over everything at the moment, both in the economy and the property market The longer it goes, the greater are the chances that mortgage rates increase, the economy slows, or both If anything, the small upturn in property values may now peter out and it could be another broadly flat year
PropertyValues
Property values across Auckland are still down by about 23% from the peak, and although there have been recent signs of stabilisation so far in 2026, they ’ re also still about 3% lower than a year ago Manukau and North Shoe have looked the most resilient in the first few months of the year, but Franklin and Waitakere remain sluggish
In Northland, Far North continues to face challenges, with median values down by 1.5% in the three months to March, and nearly 4% below the same time last year By contrast, Kaipara (0 2%) and Whangarei (0 4%) have edged slightly higher in the first few months of 2026 Of course, all markets now face the extra uncertainty induced by the Iran conflict
Most parts of Waikato Region still have property values below where they were this time last year, but the drop has been less than 1% in many of those markets Moreover, looking at the more recent three months since December, the falls have been less 0 5% in Waipa and South Waikato, while Waikato District is up by 0 3%, Hamilton 0 6%, and Thames-Coromandel by more than 1 5%
Bay of Plenty ’ s property market is also showing signs of a turnaround, but it’ s not universal For example, both Taupo and Whakatane have dipped by 0 7-0 8% since December, but Tauranga has held steady, Rotorua is up by 0 6%, and Western Bay of Plenty sits out ahead with a 2 2% lift in median values to start the year
PropertyValues
Wellington& Manawatu-Whanganui
Most sub-markets around the wider Wellington area have still dropped by around 2-3% from a year ago, with Carterton’ s fall sitting at closer to 4% But over the more recent three month period since December, no falls have been bigger than 1%, with Wellington City itself actually edging up by 0 4%, Upper Hutt rising by 1%, and Kapiti Coast by 1 7%
Manawatu-Whanganui’ s property market is generally showing signs of flattening out, although values in Manawatu District edged down by a further 0 3% in the three months to March, to be down by 3 7% from a year ago On the other hand, Palmerston North has risen by 0 7% since December and Whanganui is up by 1 3% Both markets have also seen (modest) annual rises
Although it’ s not in a boom, Canterbury ’ s property market is still amongst the most resilient in the country, with Timaru only seeing a small 0 2% lift since December, but Ashburton, Selwyn, Christchurch, and Waimakariri all up by around 1% over the past three months Reflecting their strong farming bases, Timaru and Ashburton values are now at new record peaks
Otago is also showing stronger patterns, with all sub-markets up by 2-3% since March last year, although Clutha has slid slightly downwards since December Over the past three months, median values in Central Otago are up by 1 2%, Dunedin has risen by 1 7%, and Queenstown-Lakes has seen a further 2 2% increase, to a median of $1 58m
SalesVolumes NationwideOverview
The volume of property sales across the country in Q1 was around 4% lower than the same period a year ago, signifying a sluggish start to 2026 for activity levels To be fair, the level of sales is roughly back to its long-term average, but previous expectations that volumes would go above normal this year may now need to be pared back
Indeed, the market now has the Iran conflict to contend with, and the longer it lasts the greater the chances we get higher mortgage rates or a weaker economy, or most likely both of those things – which will tend to weigh on housing market confidence, activity, and prices Sales figures for April and beyond will be closely watched
Our original modelled forecast for sales volumes to rise from around 90,000 in 2025 to 100,000 in 2026 – based on rising GDP, net migration, and wages, alongside reduced mortgage rates – may now be too optimistic Some growth is still on the cards, but perhaps not as strong as that, given worsening economic figures and interest rate concerns (albeit migration is ticking upwards)
NZsalesvolumes
SalesVolumes
Waikato&BayofPlenty Auckland&Northland
Auckland’ s market turnover levels have been generally trending higher in recent months, although in line with the national picture, there has been a slowdown to start 2026 That being said, sales in Auckland in Q1 were only -0.2% lower than the same period in 2025, a more resilient figure compared to the national decline of nearly 4%
Sales activity in Northland has also been a little patchy to start the year, with the smaller market of Kaipara performing well (annual rise of 24% in Q1), but Far North showing a drop of nearly 6% Whangarei has also seen growth slow a bit, although the small rise of 1 4% in sales activity in Q1 compared to a year earlier was stronger than the national drop
Sales volumes across the Waikato Region have been variable in the past few months, with Waipa seeing Q1 activity rise by almost 18% compared to the same period in 2025, and Waikato District also recording growth (6%). But Thames-Coromandel volumes in Q1 were around 22% lower than a year ago, while Hamilton also dropped, but only a modest -0 4%
Sales activity in Bay of Plenty has generally been part of the wider weakening trend around the country, with volumes in Q1 in Rotorua recording a drop of 11% from the same period in 2025, and Tauranga down by 13% That said, it’ s not universal, with Western Bay of Plenty actually seeing an annual lift of around 21% in Q1
Aucklandsalesvolumes
Taurangasalesvolumes
SalesVolumes
The Wellington Region has softened in terms of sales activity so far in 2026, with Kapiti Coast seeing a fall from the same period in 2025 of more than 20%, Lower Hutt down by 15%, Wellington City itself dropping by 12%, Porirua by around 9%, and Upper Hutt roughly 7% This will tend to keep listings elevated and hold pricing power in buyers ’ hands
Broadly speaking, Manawatu-Whanganui’ s property sales volumes have been relatively resilient in recent months, although Manawatu District itself had an annual drop of around 21% in Q1 On the other hand, sales over 2026 so far have been up (compared to a year ago) in Horowhenua (6%), Palmerston North (4%), with Whanganui stable
Variability is evident across Canterbury, with sales volumes in Q1 2026 showing a drop (from a year ago) of 6% in Timaru and 1% in Christchurch However, Ashburton has trended higher (+9%), with Selwyn up by around 4% and Waimakariri by 1% Markets with stronger lifts in sales have seen listings tighten a little further, but generally buyers retain the balance of pricing power.
Otago is also seeing a mixed start to the year for sales activity Clutha’ s sales volumes over the first three months of 2026 have been 20% lower than the same period last year, with Dunedin down by more than 6% Yet Central Otago has lifted by almost 5%, and Queenstown’ s activity levels are up by nearly 9% from a year ago
Wellingtonsalesvolumes
SaleListingsVolumes
The weekly flow of new property listings coming onto the market has remained fairly normal for the time of year over the first few months of 2026 and has now entered the usual Autumn slowdown
Yet with sales volumes proving a little sluggish in the early part of the year, the stock of available listings on the market hasn’t perhaps fallen as much as might have been anticipated Indeed, although stock levels are down by around 5% from the same time in 2025, they ’ re ‘only ’ back at 2024 levels, and still well above anything seen over 2020-23 (for the time of year)
In other words, buyers still generally hold the balance of power when it comes to price negotiations, and we ’ re seeing this show up in broadly flat property values The full scale of fallout from the Iran conflict will only be clear in due course, but for now it seems fair to suggest that it’ll remain a buyer ’ s market in the meantime – at least for those buyers who can get finance and have job security
SaleListingsVolumes
The weekly flow of new property listings coming onto the market in Auckland has been steady through the first few months of the year and is now into the normal Autumn drop The pass-through to the number of existing listings on the market has meant they ’ ve also lifted in the early part of 2026, albeit remain around 7% below 2025 levels and 2% down on 2024 (for the time of year).
If anything, new listings flows each week in Northland have been a little soft over the first few months of 2026, meaning that stock levels have flattened off (whereas they ’d normally be edging higher early in any given year) Listings levels across the region remain 78% below the 2024 and 2025 positions for the time of year Whangarei has even tightened a little more than that
If anything, the weekly flow of new listings coming onto the market in the Waikato Region has been a bit above normal recently, but even so the stock of property listed for sale remains lower in the past few years Indeed, although the margins aren ’t huge, Hamilton’ s listings stock is currently back down at its lowest level since 2022 for the time of year
Weekly new listings flows of property coming onto the market have been in line with normal across Bay of Plenty lately, with decent levels of sales activity meaning that listings stocks on the market have moderated compared to recent years Tauranga for example currently has 7% fewer listings on the market than this time last year and 14% down on 2024
Whangareisalelistings
SaleListingsVolumes
The wider Wellington area has recently seen a relatively high flow of new properties being listed each week and stock levels have risen accordingly Indeed, the stock of property available to buy around the region remains historically high (on a par with 2025 for the time of year), and well above the 5-6 years prior to that It’ s still firmly a buyer ’ s market
New listings flows over the past few months have ticked along at a fairly normal level across ManawatuWhanganui although the stock of listings available on the market has still edged higher In Whanganui itself, listings on the market are similar to the high levels seen this time in 2025, which is around 12% above 2024 levels. Palmerston North is showing similar patterns.
New listings flows have been pretty strong across most parts of Canterbury in recent months and the stock of property listed on the market has also remained quite high. Indeed, it’ s very similar to the historically elevated levels seen this time last year and around 10% above 2024 levels Christchurch itself is showing a similar trend, meaning buyers still have plenty of choice
The Otago Region has also seen a fairly solid flow of new property listings coming onto the market lately, but agreed sales at the other end of the pipeline have largely absorbed the new listings Stock on the market in Dunedin is down by around 7% from this time last year (albeit that was a high level), with Queenstown about 5% tighter.
RentalPricesandYields
NationwideOverview
Landlordsfacearentchallengeatpresent
MBIE’ s data from the bonds system shows that national rental growth (year on year) was -1 6% in the three months to February, having first turned negative in May last year and holding below zero ever since In other words, this is one of the largest and longest falls in rents that we ’ ve seen in the past 30 years or so To be fair, they ’ re not collapsing, but it’ s still tricky for landlords at present
Put another way, although the level of rents is still high in relation to household incomes (i e rents aren ’t cheap and affordability remains a challenge), the market is in favour of tenants – a good time for people to be looking for a property to rent or to renegotiate an existing lease.
Looking ahead, the affordability challenge for tenants will be a natural handbrake on the pace of any future rental growth, but there are nevertheless emerging signs that this downturn could at least peter out over the coming months First, net migration has begun to rise again (notwithstanding any Iran-related gyrations), and second, the stock of available rental listings has just eased down a bit
NZrentalgrowthandyields
RentalPricesandYields
The median weekly rent in Auckland over the three months to February was $641, which represents a -1 4% drop from a year ago As migration has fallen after the post-COVID surge and new housing supply has continued to rise, Auckland rents have been subdued Even so, property values have been weaker, meaning that gross rental yields have still edged a little higher, now at around 3.2%.
Northland’ s rental market is a mixed bag at present, with median weekly rents in Whangarei ($583) basically flat from a year ago, but Far North and Kaipara showing more meaningful growth of around 5% or above The growth in rents but falls in property values have seen yields around Northland rise, albeit Whangarei has only edged slightly higher from 4 1% to 4 2% in the past 12 months
The rental market in the Waikato Region remains more resilient than some other parts of the country but it isn’t seeing much growth either Weekly rents in Waipa were 1 1% higher than a year ago in the three months to February, with Waikato District up by 0 7%, South Waikato by 1 0%, and Hamilton unchanged Hamilton’ s gross rental yields are also stable at around 4.0%.
Bay of Plenty ’ s rental market is also showing some degree of resilience to the wider subduing forces, with Whakatane edging up by 0 9% in the past year, Tauranga by 1 2%, and Rotorua 1 6% (albeit Western Bay of Plenty rents have dropped by nearly 2%)
Tauranga’ s gross yields are stable at 4 0%, while Rotorua has edged up from 4 6% a year ago to 4 7% now
RentalPricesandYields
Wellington &Manawatu-Whanganui
The rental market across the wider Wellington area is currently one of the weakest in the country – or most in favour of tenants – with the City itself seeing median weekly rents ($623) drop by almost 5% from a year ago, and falls of 2-3% in Porirua and Lower Hutt, and nearly 9% in Upper Hutt Even though values have also fallen, gross rental yields in Wellington are hovering at around 3 8%
There’ s a bit of variability across the ManawatuWhanganui Region, with rents over DecemberFebruary down by about 1% in Palmerston North, broadly flat in Horowhenua, but edging higher in Whanganui (around 1%) and rising more strongly in Manawatu District (4%) Gross rental yields are currently 4 7% in Palmerston North and almost 5 5% in Whanganui
Canterbury&Otago
The Canterbury Region is a mixed bag for rents at present, with Timaru seeing an annual fall of 1 4% in the three months to February, and Waimakariri edging down by around 0 5% But Ashburton, Selwyn, and Christchurch have all risen by 1-2% Gross rental yields across the region are typically 4-5%, with Christchurch sitting at 4 4%
Broadly speaking, Otago is proving resilient at the moment, with rents in Central Otago up by more than 5% in the past year, Dunedin by almost 4%, and Queenstown managing to rise by around 1% Admittedly, Clutha is softer, down by -0 8% in the past year. Queenstown’ s gross rental yields remain sub-3%, but Dunedin and Clutha are in excess of 5%
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Migrationcould absorbsomestock
RentalListingsVolumes
After a significant rise in available rental listings on the market in 2024, stock levels gradually dropped away again throughout 2025 and now start 2026 from a relatively normal position – in other words, the power between tenants and landlords is probably levelling up to a degree, after a phase where renters have been in a stronger position than in prior years
That said, there’ s still a reasonable flow of new rental listings coming onto the market each week, so if net migration stays low for the short to medium term, there’ s always a chance that property demand won ’t be strong enough to absorb those new listings and the stock of rentals available would tend to drift higher again – subduing rents and a challenge for landlords
Indeed, rents have already been flat to falling in many parts of NZ in the past year or so, which has been driven by those supply/demand dynamics but also the fact they ’ re still high in relation to incomes – that’ s a natural handbrake on any further rental growth In short, even though the stock of available rentals has ‘normalised’ , rents themselves still face challenges
NZrentlistingsvolumes
RentalListingsVolumes
The weekly flow of new rental listings hitting the market in Auckland has been fairly normal in the past 6-12 months, although tenants have also been absorbing these properties to an extent The total stock of rental listings on the market currently sits about 32% below where it was this time last year (a high base), but also around 13% lower than 2024 levels
The new weekly flow of rental listings hitting the market lately has been slightly elevated in Northland, and this has kept the stock of available rental properties a bit higher than some other parts of the country Indeed, although the region’ s current stock of available rentals is about 12% lower than it was this time in 2025, it’ s almost 10% above 2024 levels
In the Waikato Region, the weekly flow of new rental listings hitting the market has been running at relatively normal levels in the past few months, with the stock of available properties dropping – suggesting that tenant demand remains solid Hamilton’ s stock of listings, for example, is around 40% below 2025 levels and 30% down from 2024’s mark (for the time of year)
New rental listings flows have recently been solid across Bay of Plenty but the total stock available on the market has still eased downwards In Rotorua, the number of rental listings on the market is about 10% below this time in 2025, with Tauranga seeing an even bigger shift – a fall of 34% from 2025 levels and down 12% from 2024
RentalListingsVolumes
Wellington &Manawatu-Whanganui
Wellington is another area where the new weekly flow of rental listings coming onto the market has been fairly solid over the past 6-12 months, yet stock levels have still drifted downwards Available rentals on the market are almost 30% below this time in 2025, although still around 15% above 2024 levels Upper and Lower Hutt are seeing a lot of rental stock sitting listed on the market.
The Manawatu-Whanganui region has also had a steady flow of new rental listings hitting the market in recent months and hence the drift lower for stock levels hasn’t been as pronounced as elsewhere The number of available rental listings across the region is around 15% lower than this time in 2025, but it remains 45% above 2024 levels
Canterbury&Otago
The new weekly flows of rental listings coming onto the market remain relatively normal across the Canterbury region, and stock levels have drifted downwards –around 20% lower than this time in 2025 and 10% down from 2024 The figures for Christchurch itself are very similar to the region-wide results, although Selwyn District has a lot of rental stock sitting on the market
If anything, the weekly flow of new rental listings coming onto the market has been a touch below normal in Otago over the past few months and stock levels have eased downwards Dunedin’ s listings count is around 35-40% below both 2025 and 2024 levels for the time of year, while Queenstown has tightened by 20% from a year ago
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Published date: April 2026