National Trends National Population Growth & Decline Snapshot
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. population increased by .35% between 2019 and 2020. Kentucky’s population increased by .15% over the same time period. Between 2019 and 2020, some states saw significant increases in population numbers that contributed to overall national growth. The top fastest-growing states during this period were Arizona and Idaho. Other states saw a population decline. 16 U.S. states law population loss in 2020, such as California, Connecticut, Hawaii, West Virginia, and Illinois.
The U.S. is Still Recovering from the 2008 Housing Crisis
The New Decade Brings Systemic Change
Housing issues are at the forefront of community development. Improving land use and zoning to increase an equitable and sustainable housing supply is front of mind for planners.
2022 is an inflection point for planners and the communities we serve.
With historically high levels of federal support, tools, and key reforms in hand, the reinvention of communities will be the focus driving much of what planners do.5
After the Great Recession, the number of home builders declined significantly, and housing production was unable to meet buyer demand. This deficit of housing in the United States continues to exist because of persistent supply-side headwinds for builders, creating a critical housing affordability challenge for renters and homebuyers. Yet despite these challenges,
Covid-19 Pandemic
The pandemic created many changes that impact planning—from accelerating changes in brick-and-mortar office and retail to the ways we engage the public. Over the course of the pandemic, supply chain issues and inflation impact everything from groceries to the price of a new home, while parks and public
residential construction is set to evolve and expand throughout the decade ahead.2 3,4
land are seeing some of their highest usage in modern times.6
Fastest Growing States 20221
Social Justice & Racial Equity
In response to social justice issues, the American Institute of Certified Planners (AICP) revised their Code of Ethics and Professional Condict in November 2021 to “more fully account for the planners’ role in social justice and racial
equity, while accepting our responsibility to eliminate historic patterns of inequity tied to planning decisions.”7
In February of 2022, Mayor Gorton made permanent the city’s Racial Justice and Equality Commission, the purpose of which is to assemble diverse community members to listen, discuss and create empowering solutions that dis-
mantle systemic racism in Fayette County.8
Climate Change
Planning plays a significant role in both climate change mitigation and adaptation. Two of the largest contributors of greenhouse gases — transporta-
tion and buildings — are influenced by planning decisions and policies.
When planning leads the way on local climate action, communities reduce cost, create jobs, and keep communities strong.9
State and Region Lexington-Fayette County & State Comparison
Fayette County is Kentucky’s second most populous county behind only Jefferson County. Its population growth continues to rank among the fastest growing counties in Kentucky, particularly among large counties with populations over 100,000 people.
SCOTT
In 2019, Fayette County makes up more than seven percent of the state population and almost 15 percent of the state’s growth since 2000.1
Georgetown
Paris
BOURBON
WOODFORD
Lexington-Fayette Metropolitan Statistical Area
FAYETTE
Versailles
Fayette County is the primary county within the Lexington–Fayette, KY Metropolitan Statistical Area, which comprises five of the six adjacent counties, excluding Madison County. The 2020 U.S. Census MSA population is 516,811 which is an increase of 9.47% from the 2010 Census. For reference, the population of Louisville-Jefferson Co. is 633,045.
Lexington Winchester
CLARK
JESSAMINE Nicholasville
2010-2020 Regional Population Growth Comparison Lexington-Fayette County 9.05% (13.55% in 2000-2010) Lexington-Fayette MSA 9.47% (15.62% in 2000-2010) Louisville-Jefferson County 5.98% (7.83% in 2000-2010) Louisville-Jefferson MSA 5.34% (3.39% in 2000-2010)
Lexington-Fayette County A Boundary and a Merger
2020 Population 322,570
In 1958, Lexington created the nation’s first Urban Service Boundary. The American Planning
U.S. Census Population 1900-2020 Lexingon-Fayette Co.
285 mi2 Total area of Lexington-Fayette Co.
Association designated the Urban Service Boundary as a “National Planning Landmark” in 1991, an award for projects that are “historically significant, initiated a new direction in planning or impacted American planning, cities or regions over a broad range of time or space.” Throughout the years, this boundary has seen many evolutions; it has been expanded, it has been contracted, and it has been maintained in it’s current configuration for over 20 years.
350,000
200 mi2 Rural Service Area 70% of Total Area 85 mi Urban Service Area 30% of Total Area 2
300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0
In 1972 the voters of Lexington and Fayette County approved consolidation of a merged city-county government which created the Lexington-Fayette Urban County Government (LFUCG).
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
Population
Urban Service Area
Rural Service Area
85 squares miles are included in the Urban Service Boundary. Approximately 97 percent of Fayette County’s population resides within the USB, equating to 5.75 people per acre within the USB.
200 square miles are included in the Rural Service Area. In 1999, the first Rural Service Area Land Management Plan was adopted as an element of the 1996 Comprehensive Plan. The groundbreaking document was the first extensive effort dedicated to the planning and management of land uses in the Rural Service Area.12
Intentional Growth
EXP3
In 1996, the Expansion Area Master Plan (EAMP) added ~5,300 acres to the Urban Service Area. In addition to planning for land use, community design, and infrastructure elements, the EAMP projected housing for a total population of 30,822.10
EXP2A
Expansion Area 1 614 acres Expansion Area 2A, B, C 4,213 acres Expansion Area 3 502 acres
EXP2B EXP2C
Compact Growth
Kentucky Urban Areas Snapshot Note the developed urban area patterns across KY. Urban Area11
References
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
%±
Rural Land Management
1996 Expansion Areas
Having an Urban Service Bounday means Lexington’s urban development must generally take place within ~30% of the city’s land. The boundary has kept development patterns relatively compact and has minimized many of the typical sprawling suburban developments that have been occurring throughout other cities in Kentucky and the United States.
1960
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
EXP1
Many specific aspects and elements contribute to the importance of the Rural Service Area, including the agricultural economy, tourism, long-term preservation, sustainability, the rural landscape, and cultural heritage. The Rural Service area also includes major employment centers like the Bluegrass Airport, Keeneland, Bluegrass Stockyards, and the Kentucky Horse Park.
Purchase of Development Rights
Roughly ¼ of the Rural Service Area is protected by the Purchase of Development Rights (PDR) program, Kentucky’s first Agricultural Conservation Easement program facilitated by a local government. Through PDR the city purchases farm owners’ development rights (their right to ever develop the farm commercially), thereby preserving it as farmland forever. The program protects farmland for food security and conservation of environmentally sensitive lands. Eventually the city hopes to conserve 50,000 acres, or almost 40% of the Rural Service Area. These protections have largely contributed to the city’s identity and its relatively fiscally responsible development patterns.13
Unless otherwise noted, all text and data from: Lexington Sustainable Growth Study Existing Conditions and Growth Trends Report, July 13, 2021. Stantec Consulting Services, et al. or the U.S. Census Bureau. 1. https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/fastest-growing-states 2. https://eyeonhousing.org/2020/01/a-decade-of-home-building-the-long-recovery-of-the-2010s/ 3. U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, New Privately-Owned Housing Units Started: Total Units [HOUSTNSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUSTNSA, March 14, 2022. 4. A start is defined as excavation (ground breaking) for the footings or foundation of a residential structure. For a multifamily structure, all units are counted as started when the structure is started. (NAHB)
5. https://www.planning.org/policy/priorities/ 6. https://www.tpl.org/parks-and-the-pandemic 7. https://www.planning.org/ethics/ethicscode/ 8. https://www.lexingtonky.gov/boards/commission-racial-justice-and-equality 9. https://planning.org/policy/priorities/2022/climate/ 10. Expansion Area Master Plan, https://drive.google.com/open?id=1dSXQ47o-tkSME3QN4RvJybTf3fixKRDR 11. U.S. Census Urban Areas represents the 2010 Census urban areas in the United States. An urban area comprises a densely settled core of census tracts and/or census blocks that meet minimum population density requirements. (ESRI)