MARKET SNAPSHOT
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA CBSA January 2021 YOY Change
MARKET OVERVIEW New Home Sales
L12M New Home Sales
Sales Rate
L12M Sales Rate
554 31.0%
6,559 36.3%
2.3
1.7
Residential closing volume in the Portland area has registered strong year-over-year gains in recent months despite stagnation in the job market. Home prices are also trending upward driven by low mortgage rates pent-up-demand and historically low levels of residential supply. However builders are actively trying to meet the demand with new large communities in Beaverton Tigard Hillsboro and Newberg. One of the largest new home communities being built locally is Beaverton's South Cooper Mountain neighborhood were new townhomes and single-family detached houses are going vertical at a growing clip.
Strengths - Beginning in 2022 Proper Portland plans to facilitate the development of 4 million square feet of new construction on the Broadway Corridor in Northwest Portland. It would include a mix of affordable and market-rate housing as well as retail and office space. Weaknesses - The regional inventory of homes for sale has fallen to paltry levels. The housing shortage largely stems from homeowners unwilling to sell during the pandemic a lack of residential lots and September wildfires that destroyed thousands of Oregon dwellings.
NEW HOME PENDING SALES INDEX
VALUATION PATTERNS
YOY Change
MOM Change
Median Price
Valuation
60.1%
-2.7%
$464,857 6.8%
9.8% Income Supported Price
F
F
23
21
20
19
20
17
20
15
20
13
20
11
20
09
20
20
07
05
20
20
03 20
01
$525,000 $450,000 $375,000 $300,000 $225,000 $150,000
20
100 75 50 25 0 -25
No v. 2 Ja 018 n. 2 M 019 ar .2 M 019 ay 2 Ju 019 ly 2 Se 019 p. 2 No 019 v. 2 Ja 019 n. 2 M 020 ar .2 M 020 ay 2 Ju 020 ly 2 Se 020 p. 2 No 020 v. 20 20
YOY % Change
Home Price
SUPPLY SNAPSHOT Vacant Developed Lots
6,583 ↓
VDL Months of Supply
13.5 ↓
Active Projects
222 ↓
Housing Inventory
2,984 ↑
Quick Move-Ins Per Project
0.4 ↓
10 Year Inventory Average
2,083
-
1
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA CBSA, Jan. 12, 2021
YOY Change
SUPPLY Last 12 Months Starts
Last 12 Months Sales
Last 12 Months Closings
5,864 2.7%
6,559 36.3%
5,863 5.7%
STARTS VS. CLOSINGS
NEW HOME SALES Starts
Closings
v. 2
Q3 20
Q1
No
20
20
20
Q3
Q1
20
19
Q3
20
19
Q1
18 20
18
Q3
20
17
Q1
20
20
17
Q3
Q1
16 20
Q3
16 20
15 20
0 Ja 18 n. 20 M 19 ar .2 0 M 19 ay 20 Ju 19 ly 20 Se 19 p. 20 No 19 v. 20 Ja 19 n. 2 M 020 ar .2 0 M 20 ay 20 Ju 20 ly 20 Se 20 p. 20 No 20 v. 20 20
900 800 700 600 500 400 300
7,150 6,600 6,050 5,500 4,950 4,400
HOUSING INVENTORY Under Construction
Finished Vacant
Models
3,750 3,000 2,250 1,500
Q3 20
Q2
20
20
Q1
20
20
Q4
20
19
Q3
20
19
Q2
20
19
Q1
20
19
Q4
20
18
Q3
20
20
18
Q2 18
Q1
20
20
18
Q4
20
17
Q3
20
17
Q2 17
Q1
20
17
Q4
20
16
Q3
20
20
16
Q2
20
16
Q1
20
16
Q4 15
20
20
15
Q3
750
MEDIAN CLOSING PRICE New
Existing
$463,873 -4.4%
2021 Forecast
$434,000 14.2%
$422,370 0.6%
0 02
Se p
.2
20 20 ly
Ju
20 ay M
M
ar .2
02
20
0
20
Ja
n.
20
9 01
9 01
No v. 2
.2
20
19
Se p
Ju
ly
19
M
ay
20
01 ar .2
20
9
19 M
8
n. Ja
01
No v. 2
8 01 .2
18
Se p
20 ly
Ju
20 ay M
M
ar .2
01
18
8
18 20 n.
01
7 Ja
No v. 2
Se p
.2
01
7
$525,000 $490,000 $455,000 $420,000 $385,000 $350,000
2
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA CBSA, Jan. 12, 2021
YOY Change
ZILLOW LISTINGS
RESALE DAYS TO PENDING Months of Supply
7 days↑ 50 40 30 20
c. 2
Oc
t. 2
01
8
10
0 Fe 18 b. 20 Ap 19 r. 2 Ju 019 ne 2 Au 019 g. 20 Oc 19 t. 20 De 19 c. 20 Fe 19 b. 20 Ap 20 r. 2 Ju 020 ne 20 Au 20 g. 20 Oc 20 t. 20 20
24.0 21.0 18.0 15.0 12.0 9.0
Oc t. De 201 c. 8 Fe 201 b. 8 Ap 201 r 9 Ju . 20 ne 19 Au 201 g. 9 Oc 201 t 9 De . 201 c. 9 Fe 201 b. 9 Ap 202 r 0 Ju . 20 ne 20 Au 202 g. 0 Oc 202 t. 0 20 20
15,000 13,500 12,000 10,500 9,000 7,500
Months Of Supply
9.2↓
8,605 -24.8% Listings
Days To Pending
De
Listings
JOBS VS. UNEMPLOYEMENT Annual Job Growth
-83,500↓
1,142,700 -6.8%
6.3%↑
F 23 20
F 20
21
19 20
17 20
15 20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
13
4.0
11
8.0
-55,000
09
12.0
0
07
16.0
55,000
05
20.0
110,000
03
165,000
01
New Jobs
Unemployment Rate
Unemployment Rate
Total Jobs
HOUSEHOLD GROWTH 2026 Forecast
13,945 1.4%
1,089,738 1.7% % Growth
21 20
18 20
16 20
20
20
20
20
20
20
14
1.0
12
2.0
770,000
10
3.0
840,000
08
910,000
06
4.0
04
5.0
980,000
02
1,050,000
20
Households
Households
% Growth
2021 Household Growth
3
MARKET HEALTH
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA CBSA, Jan. 12, 2021
YOY Change
MARKET HEALTH FORECAST CURRENT
2021F
1,142,700 / -6.8%
-/-
1,275,500 / 1.9%
1,297,992 / 1.8%
Households
977,775 / 0.3%
-/-
1,045,381 / 1.6%
1,063,760 / 1.8%
Median Household Income
$78,988 / 5.4%
-/-
$80,831 / 0.3%
$84,144 / 4.1%
-/-
-/-
56,262 / -623.9%
59,257 / 5.3%
930 / 35.4%
-/-
16,402 / 17.0%
18,564 / 13.2%
$434,000 / 14.2%
-/-
$422,370 / 0.6%
$435,434 / 3.1%
Over/Under Valued
-/-
-/-
9.8% Undervalued
4.0% Undervalued
Over/Under Built
-/-
-/-
5.4% Underbuilt
5.6% Underbuilt
Total Jobs
Housing Demand/Supply Total Permits Median Existing Price
MARKET HEALTH
2022F
2023F
10-YEAR HISTORY 2020
CURRENT
AVG
MIN
MAX
3.3% / -15.4%
6.3% / 90.9%
6.0%
3.2%
14.6%
Deliveries
-/-
3,994 / -42.3%
3,712
674
8,087
VDL
-/-
6,583 / -22.1%
7,320
5,174
11,057
VDL Months of Supply
-/-
13.5 / -30.0%
21.8
11.3
57.3
Building Permits
-/-
14,020 / -16.6%
12,678
5,213
16,815
Starts
-/-
1,765 / 9.8%
4,361
1,765
5,864
Housing Inventory
-/-
2,984 / 0.1
2,083
1,060
3,057
Resale Months Of Supply
-/-
10.3 / -25.4%
12.5
10.3
14.4
New Home Sales
-/-
5,940 / 22.3%
4,223
3,245
5,940
Closings - New
-/-
432 / -15.3%
4,023
432
5,475
Median New Price
-/-
$463,873 / -0.9%
$380,201
$260,099
$463,873
Affordability Ratio - New
-/-
-/-
39.9%
0.0%
56.0%
Foreclosures
-/-
19 / 26.7%
2,787
19
7,379
Unemployment
4
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA CBSA, Jan. 12, 2021
DEFINITIONS AND METHODOLOGY
ABOUT US
All information presented involved the assembly of data sources that we consider to be reliable, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics, CoreLogic, Moody’s Analytics, Neustar, Public Record Data, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Zillow, various regional Multiple Listing Service providers and Zonda. We do not guarantee any data accuracy as all information is subject to human errors, omissions, and/or changes. Forecasts and projections within this report are based on data available at the time the forecast was made and are subject to change given uctuating market conditions. Abbreviations AVG - Average CBSA - Core Based Statistical Area F - Forcast L12M - Last 12 Months VDL - Vacant Developed Lots YOY - Year Over Year
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Affordability Ratio - e percentage of households in the CBSA that earn at or above the qualifying income. e qualifying income is based on an estimated monthly payment that assumes the current median detached new home price, 20% down payment, property taxes, and current 30-year xed mortgage. is calculation assumes that 30% of the buyer’s household income is used toward housing.
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Finished Vacant Inventory - A home that is completely constructed and ready for move-in without signs of occupancy.
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Housing Inventory - Housing units that have begun or completed construction but are not occupied by a buyer. is includes Models, Finished Vacant, and Under Construction units. Housing Supply (Over/Underbuilt) e ratio between the total measure of nonfarm jobs and the total measure of housing of all types in a given region for a given month, as it compares to Zonda’s measure of long-term equilibrium.
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Housing Valuation Patterns - Over/undervaluation is based on the value of housing (inclusive of mortgage rates) relative to the long-term relationship between housing value & household incomes or income supported home price. Lot Deliveries quarter.
e number of new, active lots added to the market in a given
New Home Sales - Zonda conducts a monthly survey of actively selling new home projects by production homebuilders. is survey of monthly contract sales provides a leading indicator of housing activity.
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Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA CBSA, Jan. 12, 2021
New Home Pending Sales Index (PSI) - e New Home PSI blends the cumulative sales of actively and recently sold out projects with the average sales rate per community, which adjusts for uctuations in supply. e Index is adjusted based on each markets’ speci c seasonality, removes outliers, and uses June 2016 as the base month. Quick Move-Ins - Standing inventory or quick delivery homes. e report represents the average number of quick move-in homes per project. Data is based on the available inventory at the end of each month as captured from builders advertising through NewHomeSource.com. Starts Lot.
e point at which a foundation or slab is poured on a Vacant Developed
Total Housing Demand - Proprietary estimate based on current jobs and other factors relative to the long-term jobs-to-housing relationship. Total Housing Supply - Proprietary estimate based on US Census estimates of housing inventory and permits. Vacant Developed Lots - Represents the lots on a recorded plat with streets and utilities in place, ready for a home to be built.
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