Kirkpatrick’s Weekly Market Strategist The technical stock market letter published weekly since 1976 MAY 25, 2018
Intermediate-Term Trend Table
Index Signal
BKX Dn BOND Dn UTY Up
Date
Sig Pr
Cur Pr
3/23 103.94 108.93 3/19 144 14/32 143 3/32 2/23 640 641
*Change from last week
long-term u.s. tREASURY bONDS The previous week the U.S. Treasury Bond future broke down through what used to be strong support, and this past week it broke upward through the old support/resistance level and the upper bound of the declining channel. It also broke about its ATR cover line. A positive crossover in the CMI will occur on Tuesday, giving us a confirmed buy signal. After all that back-andforth action in the bond market over the past three months, we really didn’t make much money timing the swings. It appears that the old buy signal in March is still valid. Comment: The position is now long
GOLD
The gold futures contract continues to behave similar to the bond market in that it also has traded in a strong downward channel and is presently flirting with the its upper bound. The bond market broke above that bound but gold has not. However, the DMI picture is almost identical to that of the bond market with a likely positive crossover to occur on Tuesday.
Conclusion: The position is flat.
www.charleskirkpatrick.com • kirkco@capecod.net • © 2018 Kirkpatrick & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved • May 25, 2018 • Page 1
Market Timing
Intermediate-Term - The intermediate-term patterns in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial are both triangles, the Dow being closer to a descending triangle and the S&P being closer to a symmetrical triangle. In both cases, an upward breakout occurred, and prices should reach the parallel lines drawn on the chart above each triangle. However, as always, there is the possibility that the upward breakout was a false breakout, in which case the subsequent decline should reach the original lower objectives on lines parallel to the upper bounds. In the dual, filtered, simple moving averages in the S&P, we have to assume the market is still upward until the red line crosses below 1.00.
www.charleskirkpatrick.com • kirkco@capecod.net • © 2018 Kirkpatrick & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved • May 25, 2018 • Page 4
BARGAIN LIST FOR 5/25/2018 52Wk Hi 52Wk Lo
Name
98.33
39.11 New Relic Inc
70.74
18.05 Solaredge Tech
137.59 59.91
66.06 Ralph Lauren Corp
Symb
NEWR
96.61
0.45 Up 99
SEDG
58.95
2.50 Up 97 86 67
RL
19.77 World Wrestling Ent WWE
29.20
8.81 Abercrombie & Fitch ANF
322.67 138.71 Align Technology I
1638.10 927.00 Amazon.Com Inc
ABMD ALGN
66.00
32.58 Atlassian Cls A Ord TEAM
46.90
14.25 Axogen Inc
59.80
202.88
40.65 Autohome Inc
ATHM
20.57 Axon Inc
AAXN
19.01 Baozun Inc Ads
36.51 Beigene Ltd Ads
371.60 184.53 Boeing Company 142.23 40.72
79.07 Burlington Stores 6.47 California Resour
26.91
11.47 Chegg Inc
46.15
20.50 Cree Inc
32.94 73.90 54.28 45.02 31.83 81.72 78.28 60.82
112.41 91.55 56.74 76.31 80.32 20.39 69.48
175.99 107.49 35.11
141.34 63.42
13.95 Comtech Telecom Co
AXGN BZUN BGNE BA
BURL CRC
CHGG CMTL CREE
13.50 Crispr Therapeutics CRSP 20.65 Delek US Holdings
DK
12.96 Etsy Inc
ETSY
13.12 Editas Medicine 35.33 First Solar Inc 44.30 Five Below Inc 35.44 Fortinet Inc 41.35 Grubhub Inc
38.47 Haemonetics Corp 30.35 Herbalife Ltd
23.46 Hollyfrontier Corp
EDIT FSLR FIVE FTNT GRUB HAE HLF
7.48 Karyopharm Therap
35.16 Kohl’s Corp
12.61 -0.17 Up 48 20 20
44.05 Loxo Oncology CS
8
394.28 -0.18 Up 99 89 97 318.54 15.89
1.50 Up 96 65 96 7.08 Up 92 93 70 0.25 Up 86
62.94 -0.98 Up 92
96 88
100.48 -1.23 Up 96 77 94 45.35 -0.15 Up 98
96
63.01
0.93 Up 99 95 91
189.7
1.84 Up 99
58.05 -0.45 Up 99 14 76 360.09 136.07
17.41 Macy’s Inc
M
26.85 Micron Technology
MU
MED
1/26/2018 238.98
64.98% 315.10
2/23/20181500.00 2/9/2018 3/2/2018
1/19/2018 5/4/2018 3/2/2018 3/9/2018
7.34% 1350.4
82.67 -80.78%
13.24
82.67
21.54%
75.55
38.75
62.61%
58.17 42.50 47.88
8.20% 6.71%
21.24%
48.68 33.74 49.36 36.69
5/4/2018
12.40%
2/2/2018 348.91 35.93
0.14 Up 95 83 32
3/9/2018
30.65
0.29 Up 99
52.08 -1.06 Up 98 83 36.53 -0.10 Up 88
60 10/20/2018 98
3/30/2018
98
3/9/2018
9
0.94 Up 97 90 88
68.25 -0.12 Up 55 87 54 71.41 -1.78 Up 76 85 59 60.37 -0.27 Up 95 85 85
101.78 -1.31 Up 93 86 94 0.28 Up 97 34 79
48.7 -5.16 Up 90 39 42
77.78 -0.58 Up 93 86 95 0.34 Up 98
0
165.71 -1.81 Up 99
0
4/13/2018 3/9/2018
7/28/2017 1/5/2018 4/6/2018
7/29/2016 2/9/2018
23.88
-9.85%
23.83
0.75%
25.51
44.28
17.62%
45.71 37.92 27.93
53.01% -3.67% 8.99%
48.87
39.66%
54.33
11.12%
72.37
-1.33%
37.92 168.41% 68.70
31.97%
4/13/2018
55.71
30.48%
5/4/2018
16.48
7.28%
5/11/2018 111.53 -56.33% 2/16/2018
67.37
106.18 -0.23 Up 97 81 80
4/6/2018
89.61
3/9/2018
88.96
0.10 Up 96 55
3.20% 309.05
35.57%
1/12/2018
63.87
4/20/2018 133.06
6
4/27/2018
61.35 -0.14 Up 97 91 55
3/9/2018
140.58 -0.35 Up 99 88 78
20.06% 139.85
33.82
0.77 Up 87 76 10
34.13
27.76%
4/28/2017 134.62 136.62% 237.77
5/18/2018
93
17.68
LOXO
21.45
14
0.54 Up 94
65.28
19.92
-0.64% 116.05
45.85
90.66
1/19/2018
4/6/2018 136.94
0.23 Up 98
30.44
12.48
0.06 Up 86 71 35
1.09 Up 88 80 47
26.84
69.94
16.19 -22.11%
3/23/2018 158.01
32.39 -3.84 Up 99 30.88
5/11/2018
0
KPTI
47.26 Lululemon Athletica LULU 40.00 Medifast Inc
25.45 -0.48 Up 94 99
72.69 -2.86 Up 99 94 18
KSS
P/L % TRL-STP
95
HFC
34.51 Interactive Brokers IBKR
COST
58.08 -0.70 Up 99 82 81
AMZN 1610.15
7.15 Array Biopharma Inc ARRY
DT PURCH
2.50 Up 97 37 41
BARGAIN LIST
403.45 134.39 Abiomed Inc
63.50
137.3
STOCKS DELETED
7.61 Petroleo Brasileiro PBR
107.54
CHG P&F RS EPS PS
STOCKS ADDED
17.20
18.78
Last
32.19 54.59
15.45% 2.21%
20.84 33.19 40.47 42.38 27.72 23.63 58.54 61.72 51.49 88.22 78.29 47.65 60.66 64.25 13.90 56.64
24.54% 121.56 18.49% 6.03%
90.74 26.26
58.03% 112.86 12.38%
45.72
www.charleskirkpatrick.com • kirkco@capecod.net • © 2018 Kirkpatrick & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved • May 25, 2018 • Page 5
deletions from THE bargain list
52Wk Hi52Wk Lo 12.75 47.00 27.45
125.79 22.42
NAME
ETF BARGAIN LIST
STOCKS ADDED TO THE LIST
7.40DB Oil Fund PS
SYM
LAST
CHG
P&F
RS
DT PUR
COST
DBO
12.03
-0.42 Up
88 5/25/2018
12.03
17.35Dynamic Energy Explor & Prod
PXE
25.47
-0.84 Up
89 5/25/2018
25.47
11.88US Brent Oil
BNO
15.04Direxion S&P Oil & Gas Expl Bu GUSH 80.90S&P Smallcap Health Care Port
PSCH
35.59 124.18 21.28
-3.87 Up 0.18 Up
-0.68 Up
96 5/25/2018
35.59
91 5/25/2018 124.15 90 5/25/2018
21.28
RS
COST
STOCKS DELETED FROM THE LIST (NONE)
ETF & ETN Bargain List
52Wk Hi52Wk Lo 12.75 47.00 27.45
125.79 34.67 22.42 42.11
NAME
7.40DB Oil Fund PS
SYM DBO
15.04Direxion S&P Oil & Gas Expl Bu GUSH 17.35Dynamic Energy Explor & Prod P PXE
LAST
12.03 35.59 25.47
80.90S&P Smallcap Health Care Port
PSCH
124.18
11.88US Brent Oil
BNO
21.28
12.36Ultra DJ-UBS Crude Oil Proshar UCO 10.01Velocity 3X Long Crude Oil Averages
UWT
CHG
P&F
-0.42 Up -3.87 Up -0.84 Up 0.18 Up
29.82
-2.74 Up
33.53
-4.80 Up
-0.68 Up
DT PUR
88 5/25/2018 96 5/25/2018 89 5/25/2018
12.03
%CHG
35.59
22.61
91 3/23/2018
28.29
5.41%
94 3/23/2018
31.68
5.84%
39.78
5.62%
90 5/25/2018
91.3
21.28
10.97 27.98
25.47
91 5/25/2018 124.15
TRL STP
109.72 24.56 18.78 33.27
www.charleskirkpatrick.com • kirkco@capecod.net • © 2018 Kirkpatrick & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved • May 25, 2018 • Page 8
additions to the ETF BARGAIN LIST
www.charleskirkpatrick.com • kirkco@capecod.net • © 2018 Kirkpatrick & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved • May 25, 2018 • Page 9