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Elmhurst Real Estate Guide (Q2 2020)

Page 1

Q2 2020 Q3 2020

ELMHURST

LOCAL REAL ESTATE GUIDE


OPENING NOTE During the second quarter of 2020 our homes became places of shelter from the pandemic. Many of us rearranged our daily routines, navigated home school and maximized deliveries while isolating to stay safe. As reopening continues, I’m optimistic Elmhurst will re-emerge as the vibrant community we know and love! In developing this quarterly report, I wanted to provide a unique depth of local analysis with current insights and historical context. Now may be the best time in the last several years to consider selling your home. Please reach out if a customized home evaluation would be helpful. Also make sure to check out the recent “Real Estate Challenge” results on the last page. For the cover I chose an image of the Trolley Express, one of my family’s favorite Elmhurst traditions this time of year. Please stay safe and healthy this Summer. All my best,

630.750.9551 kelly.stetler@compass.com www.kellystetlerrealestate.com

2


METHODOLOGY Overview of Terms and Elmhurst Submarkets NORTH CLOSED: closed transaction reflecting the final sales price (does not include any seller credits)

(North of North Ave.)

CONTRACTED: contingent or pending transaction reflecting the latest asking price CONTRACT TIME: number of days between the first list date and the contracted date (does not include time from contract to close)

CENTRAL WEST (Prairie Path to North Ave. and Hwy 83 to York St.)

CENTRAL EAST (Prairie Path to North Ave. and Hwy 290 to York St.)

HOME INVENTORY: number of homes currently available for sale MEDIAN: middle value of a given dataset (all report values are medians, which are less impacted by outliers than averages) PRICE DISCOUNTS: percentage difference between the initial list and recorded sale price PRICE PER SQ. FT: ratio of the median price to the median sq. footage of a closed transaction as a relative price measure

SOUTHEAST (Prairie Path to Butterfield Rd. and Hwy 290 to York St.)

SOUTHWEST (Prairie Path to Butterfield Rd. and Hwy 83 to York St.)

Note: All figures represent detached single-family homes unless otherwise specified. Price range data based on the city of Elmhurst. Submarket figures based on the approximate areas identified on map above.

3


MARKET UPDATE “Sellers Market” Conditions with Extremely Low Home Availability

Lower Activity (Pages 6 – 7, 10 – 11)

Drop in New Builds (Page 9)

Fewer Available Homes (Pages 14 – 15)

Short Market Times (Pages 16 – 17)

Narrow Price Discounts (Pages 18 – 19)

Mixed Sales Prices (Pages 20 – 22)

New Home Listings (Q2)

34%

Contracted / Closed Homes (Q2)

New Home Permits (YTD)

49%

April 2020 was the first month of zero permits since January 2011

June Month End Inventory (YoY)

35%

“Sellers market” with 12+ year low of available homes this time of year

1%

Original List to Contract Days (Q2)

Less than 30 days generally across price ranges and submarkets

Closed Sale Price Discounts (Q2)

Unchanged at discount of 3% – 5% or less of original list price

Sale Prices / Price Per Sq. Ft. (Q2)

“Flattish pricing” with $1M+ and <$400K outperforming 4


COMPASS UPDATE Revolutionizing Real Estate with the Industry’s Most Innovative Technology and Top Talent

Tech Company Reinventing Real Estate Compass is changing how agents and clients navigate the process of finding or selling a home through its proprietary platform Led by the Brightest Minds in Technology Compass is led by experts across engineering, design, and strategy with backgrounds at Amazon, Airbnb, McKinsey, Microsoft, Twitter and others Brokerage of Unparalleled Agents Compass partners with leading agents and provides technology driving greater productivity (#1 in MLS for average units and volume produced by each broker)

2012

#1

COMPASS FOUNDED

INDEPENDENT BROKERAGE NATIONALLY

2017

#4

COMPASS ENTERS CHICAGOLAND

CHICAGOLAND LAST 12 MONTHS

#4

#3

ELMHURST BROKERAGE 2020 YTD

ELMHURST AGENT JUNE 2020

“You might think of Compass as the equivalent of the launch of the first iPhone to the various other smartphones that preceded it” 5


NEW LISTINGS By Price Range

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%)

 Owners decided to pause sale plans  Fewer listings across price ranges, except higher end $1M+ homes  June listings only down 4% YoY after large increase in May from April low

600

 New listings expected to continue recovering in the coming months

500

<$400K

$400K – $699K

$700K – $999K

$1M+

447 (-14%) 400

March – June (YoY%)

364 (-16%) 300

72

106

-32%

$1M+

46

40

15%

0

'20

$700K - $999K

100

'19

-41%

'18

193

'17

114

'16

$400K - $699K

163 (+23%)

'15

-41%

'14

139

'13

82

'12

<$400K

235 (-17%) 200

'11

%

'10

'19

'09

'20

'08

Price Range

6


By Submarket

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%)

 All submarkets experienced a significant decline in new listings  Southeast Elmhurst still experienced an increase over the last 12 months  May showed a surge in listings over April and June continued the recovery across submarkets, other than North Elmhurst

North

Central West

Southwest

Southeast

Central East

400

300

283 (-8%) 245 (-21%)

March – June (YoY%)

213 (-13%) 203 (-10%) 183 (+8%)

200

56

90

-38%

Southwest

83

97

-14%

Southeast

38

63

-40%

0

'20

Central East

'19

-35%

'18

79

'17

51

'16

Central West

100

'15

-37%

'14

108

'13

68

'12

North

'11

%

'10

'19

'09

'20

'08

Submarket

7


COMPASS LISTINGS 227 S. Sunnyside Ave.

Under Contract

122 E. Wilson St.

107 E. Wilson St.

Selected Elmhurst Listings

4,100+

$1.249M

~3,500

LIST PRICE

SQ. FT.

LIST PRICE

SQ. FT.

LIST PRICE

SQ. FT.

5 / 4.5

3

5 / 4.5

3

5 / 4.5

2

BEDS / BATHS

CAR GARAGE

BEDS / BATHS

CAR GARAGE

BEDS / BATHS

CAR GARAGE

$1.2M

~3,750

$990K

~3,600

$475K

~1,450

LIST PRICE

SQ. FT.

LIST PRICE

SQ. FT.

LIST PRICE

SQ. FT.

5 / 4.5

2.5

4 / 4.5

3

4/2

2

BEDS / BATHS

CAR GARAGE

BEDS / BATHS

CAR GARAGE

BEDS / BATHS

CAR GARAGE

682 S. Hillside Ave.

$1.449M

540 S. Kenilworth Ave.

~4,100

717 Swain Ave.

$1.459M

8


NEW BUILDS Permit Activity

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%)

 Issued 1,000+ permits since 2010  Permits have declined after completion of 55+ new homes at the old hospital site  April 2020 was the first month of no new construction permits since January 2011

New Home Permits Issued 160

 Construction activity likely to have a better second half of the year

January – June (YoY) 60

80 44

40

39

20

YTD '17

YTD '18

71 (-29%)

39

20 0

120

YTD '19 YTD '20

New Home Permits Issued

40

0

'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 9


CONTRACTED & CLOSED By Price Range

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%)

 Contracted & closed homes were down only 1% with homes below $400K offsetting growth in other price ranges  Contracts were up 39% in May and 47% in June YoY; closings bottomed in May and increased 35% in June YoY

600

 Contracted & closed homes recovery may only be limited by home availability

500

<$400K

$400K – $699K

$700K – $999K

$1M+

439 (+1%) 400

March – June (YoY%)

399 (+11%)

300

70

65

8%

$1M+

31

29

7%

98 (+2%)

0

'20

$700K - $999K

100

'19

14%

'18

120

'17

137

'16

$400K - $699K

'15

-20%

'14

138

'13

110

215 (+14%)

'12

<$400K

200

'11

%

'10

'19

'09

'20

'08

Price Range

10


By Submarket

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%)

 Contract & close activity was slightly higher in the identified submarkets (suggesting lower activity in omitted areas like South of Butterfield or West of Hwy 83)  Southeast Elmhurst saw a significant relative increase YoY on lower volume

North

Central West

Southwest

Southeast

Central East

400

 Other Elmhurst submarkets were mostly flat (i.e. +/-2%) 300 275 (+9%) 261 (+13%)

March – June (YoY%)

194 (+2%) 182 (-2%)

200

57

58

-2%

Southwest

95

93

2%

Southeast

41

33

24%

0

'20

Central East

'19

-2%

'18

58

'17

57

'16

Central West

100

'15

-1%

'14

78

'13

77

'12

North

133 (+8%)

'11

%

'10

'19

'09

'20

'08

Submarket

11


HIGHLIGHTED SALES Closed in Q2 2020 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Southwest Elmhurst

Sold By: $1,475,000 SALE PRICE

100% SALE / LIST PRICE

$342 PRICE PER SQ. FT.

5 / 4.5 BEDS / BATHS

4,300+ SQ. FT.

Extraordinary stone and brick home with three-car garage in highly sought-after Lincoln school neighborhood on quiet, family-friendly street 12


Closed in Q2 2020 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Central East Elmhurst

Sold By: $1,285,000 SALE PRICE

98% SALE / LIST PRICE

$374 PRICE PER SQ. FT.

5 / 4.5 BEDS / BATHS

3,400+ SQ. FT.

Spectacular farmhouse in ideal downtown location close to train, park, pool, dining and shopping in vibrant Elmhurst City Centre 13


HOME INVENTORY By Price Range

June Quarter End (YoY%)

 Homes available for sale have declined significantly with fewer new listings  Inventory of $1M+ homes has increased while other price ranges have decreased  Home inventory at 12+ year low for June

<$400K

$400K – $699K

$700K – $999K

$1M+

200

 Limited inventory expected to continue driving “sellers market” conditions 150

June Trends (Relative%)

Q2 '18

Q2 '19

Q2 '20

<$400K $700K – $999K

$400K – $699K $1M+

0

'20

Q2 '17

'19

22%

'18

25%

'17

23%

'16

24%

50

'15

29%

'14

36%

'13

35%

'12

0%

29%

21%

61 (-47%) 58 (+18%) 45 (-42%) 44 (-42%)

'11

25%

26%

16%

'10

50%

28%

26%

15% 24%

20%

'09

75%

100

'08

100%

14


By Submarket

June Quarter End (YoY%)

 Relative home inventory across submarkets has been mostly consistent  Home inventory is down meaningfully with all submarkets down 20% – 40%+  Southeast Elmhurst generally has the lowest amount of homes available

June Trends (Relative%)

Southwest

'20

'19

'18

0

'17

North

Q2 '18 Q2 '19 Q2 '20 Central West Central East

'16

Q2 '17

'15

23%

23% 18% 22%

'14

24%

46 (-26%) 46 (-23%) 43 (-38%) 35 (-43%) 29 (-31%)

50

'13

23%

100

'12

0%

22%

15% 23%

Central East

150

'11

25%

23%

14% 20% 21% 21%

Southeast

'10

50%

14% 17% 24%

Southwest

'09

75%

12% 18% 24%

Central West

'08

100%

North

Southeast 15


CONTRACT TIME By Price Range

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%)

 Days between listing date and contract signing have been low (mostly less than a month) for several years  Homes $1M+ are more likely to be new construction versus other price ranges, which increases market time

<$400K

$400K – $699K

$700K – $999K

$1M+

225

 Expect contract times to remain low given limited inventory and more demand 150

$700K - $999K

16

23

-30%

$1M+

40

41

-2%

0

31 (+15%) 31 (-56%) 28 (+33%) 24 (+33%) '20

-7%

'19

15

'18

14

'17

$400K - $699K

'16

62%

'15

13

'14

21

'13

<$400K

75

'12

%

'11

'19

'10

'20

'09

Price Range

'08

March – June (YoY%)

16


By Submarket

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%)

 Contract time was less than a month, except for the Southeast which returned to more normalized levels  Lower number of closed homes created some larger percentage differences  Homes in Central Elmhurst went under contract more quickly

North

Central West

Southwest

Southeast

Central East

100

75

March – June (YoY%) 50

14

16

-13%

Southwest

15

15

0%

Southeast

35

5

600%

0

'20

Central East

'19

-41%

'18

29

'17

17

'16

Central West

25

'15

10%

'14

20

'13

22

'12

North

30 (+30%) 27 (+17%) 27 (+29%) 25 (+4%) 23 (+15%)

'11

%

'10

'19

'09

'20

'08

Submarket

17


PRICE DISCOUNTS By Price Range

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%)

 Closed sales have been mostly consistent at 95% – 97% of original list price  Higher priced homes (often new or newer) have a lower discount  Lower priced homes (may need work or could be torn down) have a higher discount

<$400K

$400K – $699K

$700K – $999K

$1M+

100%

 Price discounts were steady even during the pandemic and should remain firm

97% (+1%) 97% (0%) 96% (-1%) 95% (0%)

95%

$700K - $999K

97%

97%

0%

$1M+

97%

94%

3%

85%

'20

0%

'19

97%

'18

97%

'17

$400K - $699K

'16

-1%

'15

95%

'14

95%

'13

<$400K

90%

'12

%

'11

'19

'10

'20

'09

Price Range

'08

March – June (YoY%)

18


By Submarket

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%)

 Price discounts have been consistent across submarkets  Limited differences reflect appeal of Elmhurst overall as well as each submarket  North and Southeast Elmhurst price discounts increased slightly

North

Central West

Southwest

Southeast

Central East

100%

 Buyers and sellers typically meet at 3% – 5% less than the original asking price

96% (0%) 96% (0%) 96% (0%) 96% (-1%) 96% (0%)

95%

Central East

98%

97%

1%

Southwest

97%

96%

1%

Southeast

95%

97%

-2%

85%

'20

1%

'19

94%

'18

96%

'17

Central West

'16

-1%

'15

97%

'14

96%

'13

North

90%

'12

%

'11

'19

'10

'20

'09

Submarket

'08

March – June (YoY%)

19


PRICE PER SQ. FT. By Price Range

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%)

 Pricing has generally flattened or slightly declined after several years of increases  Entry-level and teardowns provide a foundation for lower end prices  Homes above $1M set a 12+ year record level of price per sq. ft.  Pricing should be stable and possibly higher near-term with less home availability

<$400K

$400K – $699K

$700K – $999K

$1M+

$350 $311 (+7%)

$300

March – June (YoY%) $250

$238

$237

0%

$1M+

$320

$282

13%

$150

'20

$700K - $999K

'19

-2%

'18

$247

'17

$243

'16

$400K - $699K

$200

'15

3%

'14

$222

'13

$228

'12

<$400K

'11

%

'10

'19

'09

'20

'08

Price Range

$238 (-3%) $238 (-2%) $224 (0%)

20


By Submarket

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%)

 Central East recently regained the highest relative pricing and saw a large increase over last year  Central West and Southeast Elmhurst have experienced softer pricing  Although North Elmhurst had a strong quarter, this submarket is typically on the lower end of price per sq. ft.

North

Central West

Southwest

Southeast

Central East

$300

$263 (+4%) $256 (0%)

$250

March – June (YoY%)

$238 (-4%) $231 (-5%) $220 (-1%)

$276

$252

10%

Southwest

$259

$250

4%

Southeast

$217

$223

-3%

$150

'20

Central East

'19

-3%

'18

$234

'17

$226

'16

Central West

'15

5%

'14

$222

'13

$232

'12

North

$200

'11

%

'10

'19

'09

'20

'08

Submarket

21


CLOSED SALE PRICES By Submarket

Rolling Last 12 Months (YoY%)

 Overall sale price changes were mixed  Southwest Elmhurst prices were up materially, influenced by new construction  Central East Elmhurst previously higher from 50+ new homes at the old hospital

$700K

 Limited homes available and new / updated homes expected to push prices higher

$600K

North

Central West

Southwest

Southeast

Central East

$500K

March – June (YoY%)

$523 K (0%) $515 K (-1%) $505 K (+6%) $489K (+2%)

$400K

'20

'19

%

North

$376K

$400K

-6%

Central West

$590K

$519K

14%

Central East

$516K

$578K

-11%

Southwest

$596K

$490K

22%

Southeast

$534K

$525K

2%

$351 K (-9%) $300K $200K $100K

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20

Submarket

22


REAL ESTATE CHALLENGE June 2020 Postcard Answers and Gift Certificate Winner Selections Increased ~2.4% annually during this period or ~12.7% over five years

Only ~3% discount even as the pandemic emerged (most missed question)

Win $50 to a local Elmhurst business of your choice! Please join me in supporting our local businesses while â&#x20AC;&#x153;testingâ&#x20AC;? your real estate knowledge. Enter by June 15 in one of two ways: (1) text your name, address and answers to (630) 750-9551 or (2) post your answers on Facebook or Instagram and tag me @kellystetlerrealestate. Five winners will be randomly selected from those who answer all questions correctly. One submission per household please. Good luck!

Winner Selections

New construction permits totaled 90 in 2019. These permits have been in this range on a rolling basis generally over the last couple years 23


www.compass.com

Compass is a licensed real estate broker and abides by federal, state and local equal housing opportunity laws. All material presented herein is intended for informational purposes only, is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, and changes without notice. Sources include Midwest Real Estate Data LLC and the Elmhurst Community Development department. This is not intended to solicit property already listed.

Elmhurst Office 103 Haven Road Elmhurst, IL 60126 630.750.9551 kelly.stetler@compass.com www.kellystetlerrealestate.com


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Elmhurst Real Estate Guide (Q2 2020) by Kelly Stetler Real Estate - Issuu