Q3 2023 MARKET REPORT ® Each office independently owned and operated.
NORTHERN VIRGINIA, MARYLAND & WASHINGTON, D.C.
A MESSAGE FROM THE BROKERStubborn and perplexing, two words some may use to describe the 3rd Quarter results for the Greater Washington, D.C. real estate market. Stubborn-despite the prolonged lack of housing inventory (with no true end in sight), the thirst for home ownership (even though first-time home buyer participation dropped to 29% for the first time over the past several years) to the continuing uncertainty of what may happen with rates over the next quarter. All these factors might be considered be off-putting to would be buyers, but demand continues to be strong.
Perplexing-in the sense that several metrics continue to confound experts and real estate brokers in general as home prices are once again on the rise (affecting affordability especially among first time home buyers), interest rates climbing to near historic levels while days on market (DOM) continue to decline based on the buyer competition for homes in the market. You might think this would deplete the buyer pool, but buyer interest and demand remain strong and continue to rise despite the factors mentioned above. As of now, desirable available homes are selling faster and for elevated prices. Factors that typically stymie a market, in this case are driving the market.
Sellers, on the other hand continue to remain in the driver’s seat, however many are woe to give up those low mortgage rates they have been enjoying over the past couple of years. It would be hard to justify leaving a home with a refinanced loan below 3% for another home (if available) with a higher price and a loan rate that would be doubled. Expect homeowners to remain in their homes longer than in the past. We’ve already seen that happen in 2022 with the average homeowner staying put for 10 years versus the typical time frame of 7 years, further exacerbating the inventory shortage.
Northern Virginia continued to outpace Washington, D.C. and Southern Maryland in average home sale price increases (+8.5%) but still experienced unit sales declines of -19.3% as our counterparts in Washington, D.C. and Maryland. Both DC and Maryland experienced somewhat comparable metrics for the 3rd Quarter with average home price increases of 1.8% and 3.4%, respectively, and double-digit unit sales declines of -12.8% and -18.3%. Average days on market (DOM) declined significantly in both NOVA -16.7% and MD -18.3% however, that was not the case in DC where days on market (DOM) increased 13%. As usual, specific communities within these jurisdictions outperformed the larger markets in which they are a part, indicating stronger geographical preferences than in the past based on rising crime, schools and political affiliation.
Experts for the most part continue to fly blind with their forecasts based on the current mixed signals the economy is exhibiting, from high interest rates to world events as well as other factors fomenting this uncertainty. Predictions are all over the board with large disparities within those predictions. Although the real estate market has been considered “soft” across our service areas, Q4 may hold some promise as we experienced a stronger October than expected and new home sales for the month of September jumped 12.3%, while buyer demand continues to increase. Higher interest rates, moderately escalating home prices and market uncertainty. Welcome to the new norm!
KW METRO CENTER ALEXANDRIA · ARLINGTON · TYSONS · VIENNA · MIDLOTHIAN All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data sourced from Bright MLS/SmartCharts
C O N T E N T S M A R K E T S U M M A RY 2
DMV
MARKET
ANALYSIS
NO R T H E R N V I RG I N I A 5
ALEXANDRIA
5
ARLINGTON
5
ASHBURN
5
FAIRFAX
CO
5
FAIRFAX
STATION
5
LORTON
5
M c L E A N
5
SPRINGFIELD
5
VIENNA
6
WOODBRIDGE
6
LOUDOUN
6
PRINCE
CO
WILLIAM
CO
WA S H I N G T O N D.C. 9
CAPITOL
HILL
9
D U P O N T
9
F O G G Y
9
G E O RG E T OW N
9
K A L O R A M A
9
L O G A N
B O T T O M
C I RC L E
M A RY L A N D 13
B E T H E S DA
13
C H E V Y
13
P O T O M AC
13
R O C K V I L L E
13
S I LV E R
13
C A LV E R T
C O
13
C H A R L E S
C O
13
F R E D E R I C K
13
H OWA R D
14
M O N T G O M E RY
14
P R I NC E
14
SA I N T
C H A S E
S P R I NG
C O
C O C O
G E O RG E ’ S
M A RY ’ S
C O
C O
TOTAL UNITS SOLD
7,200
AVG DAYS ON MARKET 15
TOTAL DOLLAR VOLUME
$5.3B AVG SALE PRICE
Q3 2023 NORTHERN VIRGINIA Single family, townhouses & condominiums
$743,608
ALEXANDRIA
ARLINGTON
ASHBURN
Q3 2023
% diff from 2022
Q3 2023
% diff from 2022
Q3 2023
% diff from 2022
single family
units sold avg price avg days
71 $1,249,079 25
-14 +16 +39
218 $1,382,860 19
-11 +6 -14
134 $1,125,942 18
-17 +10 +13
townhome
units sold avg price avg days
143 $911,713 15
-7 +3 -25
52 $982,210 18
-21 +11 -18
164 $716,500 11
-29 +7 -39
condo/co-op
units sold avg price avg days
322 $484,095 17
-10 +13 -11
293 $459,789 23
-24 +2 -15
88 $502,622 15
-32 -2 -25
FAIRFAX CO
FAIRFAX STATION
LORTON
Q3 2023
% diff from 2022
Q3 2023
% diff from 2022
Q3 2023
% diff from 2022
single family
units sold avg price avg days
1,509 $1,077,181 16
-14 +8 -16
42 $1,163,774 13
-30 +9 -43
35 $863,946 22
+11 -15
townhome
units sold avg price avg days
783 $629,361 10
-23 +4 -33
-
-
34 $537,391 8
-3 +3 -38
condo/co-op
units sold avg price avg days
724 $434,702 18
-17 +20 -5
-
-
18 $372,194 13
+6 +11 +63
McLEAN
SPRINGFIELD
VIENNA
Q3 2023
% diff from 2022
Q3 2023
% diff from 2022
Q3 2023
% diff from 2022
single family
units sold avg price avg days
116 $2,115,183 26
+3 +10 -10
145 $782,267 11
-19 +8 -21
121 $1,313,519 21
-15 +7 -25
townhome
units sold avg price avg days
26 $1,104,846 32
-13 +7
64 $588,256 7
-45 +7 -50
27 $806,862 11
-36 +11 -21
condo/co-op
units sold avg price avg days
80 $866,121 70
+7 +81 +94
15 $381,633 9
-52 +13 +13
38 $694,635 17
-5 +67 -26
Photo courtesy of George Mrad (opposite page)
5
WOODBRIDGE
LOUDOUN CO
PRINCE WILLIAM CO
Q3 2023
% diff from 2022
Q3 2023
% diff from 2022
Q3 2023
% diff from 2022
single family
units sold avg price avg days
281 $584,863 14
-24 +5 -18
567 $1,025,264 17
-24 +10 -6
773 $680,198 15
-25 +4 -6
townhome
units sold avg price avg days
169 $456,870 9
-34 +9 -25
443 $656,416 11
-16 +6 -39
398 $484,680 9
-28 +8 -36
condo/co-op
units sold avg price avg days
100 $376,923 13
-15 +3 -28
234 $448,051 15
-19 -12
189 $388,577 13
-17 +9 -19
MARKET BALANCE
1,7
FAIRFAX COUNTY
u 48
nits sold Q3
The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, Sept 2023
20
22
single family homes
→
14%
SELLER’S
BALANCED
BUYER’S
1,509 units sold Q3 2023
$1.6B
TOTAL SALES (SINGLE FAMILY HOMES) Q3 2023
6
7
AVG DAYS ON MARKE T 35
TOTAL UNITS SOLD 1,729
Q3 2023 WASHINGTON, D.C. Single family, townhouses & condominiums
TOTAL DOLLAR VOLUME
$1.4B AVG SALE PRICE
$804,732
CAPITOL HILL Q3 2023
% diff from 2022
single family
units sold avg price avg days
3 $1,525,000 22
townhome
units sold avg price avg days
condo/co-op
units sold avg price avg days
DUPONT
FOGGY BOTTOM
Q3 2023
% diff from 2022
Q3 2023
% diff from 2022
-
-
-
1 $1,696,500 6
+671 +500
56 $1,265,277 27
-45 +4 +42
3 $1,929,666 14
-39
5 $627,800 48
+67 -42 +380
24 $593,833 30
+26 +5 -23
13 $602,230 22
-41 +19 -19
37 $453,540 51
-18 -2 -34
GEORGETOWN
2 4 KALORAMA
LOGAN CIRCLE
Q3 2023
% diff from 2022
Q3 2023
% diff from 2022
Q3 2023
% diff from 2022
single family
units sold avg price avg days
3 $3,191,666 53
-25 -7 +8
1 $1,950,000 127
-50 -51 +263
-
-
townhome
units sold avg price avg days
22 $2,613,790 47
-4 +42 +57
7 $2,874,285 30
+133 +21 +58
5 $1,639,000 52
-29 -5 +174
condo/co-op
units sold avg price avg days
24 $624,270 37
+26 -21 +16
32 $640,778 24
+14 +3 +9
31 $668,537 26
-40 -3 +18
9
Photos courtesy of George Mrad (above & across bottom)
14%
1,0
u 44
nits sold Q3
The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, Sept 2023
20 22
condo & co-op
MARKET BALANCE
→
WASHINGTON, D.C.
2
SELLER’S
BALANCED
898 units sold Q3 2023
$ 498M
TOTAL SALES (CONDO & CO-OP) Q3 2023
10
BUYER’S
11
AVG DAYS ON MARKE T
TOTAL UNITS SOLD 2,555
Q3 2023 MARYLAND
17 AVG SALE PRICE $709,539
TOTAL DOLLAR VOLUME
$1 . 8 B
Single family, townhouses & condominiums* *Data above represents Montgomery County only.
BETHESDA
CHEVY CHASE
POTOMAC
Q3 2023
% diff from 2022
Q3 2023
% diff from 2022
Q3 2023
% diff from 2022
single family
units sold avg price avg days
161 $1,657,555 19
-21 +3 +6
57 $1,818,087 29
+6 +3 +81
96 $1,535,549 23
-29 +9 +28
townhome
units sold avg price avg days
19 $1,265,750 19
+19 +15 +73
3 $1,179,333 46
+50 +149 +229
22 $829,371 12
+29 -13 -48
condo/co-op
units sold avg price avg days
85 $470,831 20
-12 +17 -29
57 $820,029 36
+24 +22 +6
1 $1,255,000 2
-75 -12 -33
ROCKVILLE
SILVER SPRING
CALVERT CO
Q3 2023
% diff from 2022
Q3 2023
% diff from 2022
Q3 2023
% diff from 2022
single family
units sold avg price avg days
143 $768,673 13
-33 -13
314 $661,277 14
-20 +5 -22
270 $514,898 21
-32 +4 -
townhome
units sold avg price avg days
49 $676,851 10
-25 -6 -58
57 $498,318 9
-35 +7 -47
21 $398,976 22
-28 +8 +100
condo/co-op
units sold avg price avg days
135 $395,453 20
-4 +6 -9
234 $269,682 25
+4 +1 +19
17 $403,350 28
+55 +6 -15
CHARLES CO
FREDERICK CO
HOWARD CO
Q3 2023
% diff from 2022
Q3 2023
% diff from 2022
Q3 2023
% diff from 2022
single family
units sold avg price avg days
488 $489,957 21
-8 +1 +24
541 $589,239 15
-27 +4 -
525 $792,095 14
-17 +2 -7
townhome
units sold avg price avg days
170 $364,744 18
-9 +7 +38
375 $429,313 15
-30 +4 +15
254 $501,688 10
-28 +11 -17
condo/co-op
units sold avg price avg days
9 $144,300 17
+13 -14 -51
91 $349,264 14
-7 +12 +17
196 $398,338 14
-11 +11 +27
13
MONTGOMERY CO
PRINCE GEORGE’S CO
SAINT MARY’S CO
% diff from 2022
Q3 2023
% diff from 2022
Q3 2023
% diff from 2022
single family
units sold avg price avg days
1,259 $978,566 17
-23 +5 -
1,284 $499,222 21
-15 +4 +17
321 $450,976 24
-19 +1 +14
townhome
units sold avg price avg days
551 $550,723 12
-21 +9 -25
552 $424,087 18
-15 +10 +13
48 $310,957 9
-42 +4 -44
condo/co-op
units sold avg price avg days
745 $372,633 20
-6 +9 -5
362 $261,144 21
-7 +14 +5
9 $218,000 8
+29 +24 -50
23%
1,6
u 34
nits sold Q3
The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, Sept 2023
2 2 02
single family homes
MARKET BALANCE
→
MONTGOMERY COUNTY
Q3 2023
SELLER’S
BALANCED
BUYER’S
1,259 units sold Q3 2023
$1.2B TOTAL SALES (SINGLE FAMILY HOMES) Q3 2023
14
Photos courtesy of George Mrad (above & opposite)
15
get to know the good life.
ALEXANDRIA 1701 Duke Street, Suite 100 Alexandria, VA 22314 703-535-3610
ARLINGTON 2111 Wilson Boulevard, Suite 1050 Arlington, VA 22201 703-224-6000
VIENNA 144 Church Street NW Vienna, VA 22180 703-564-4000
MIDLOTHIAN 15871 City View Drive, Suite 120 Midlothian, VA 23113 804-858-9000