KW Metro Center Presents NORTHERN VIRGINIA, MARYLAND & WASHINGTON, D.C. Q3 2020
MARKET REPORT
®
A MESSAGE FROM THE BROKERThe third quarter results are in for the Greater DC market and they can only be described as “staggering”. All three jurisdictions in which we operate reported significant increases in avg home prices and unit sales-despite significant inventory shortages across the metro area. September volume in particular contributed significantly to all three jurisdictions with NOVA recording a whopping $1.5B in residential real estate sales-a 58% increase over the same period last year. NOVA avg home price increases climbed to 13.5% YOY. Likewise in September, Wash DC and Montgomery County registered a 7.3% and a 15.7% avg home price increase respectfully over the same period last year. The Q3 numbers benefitted greatly from the strong sales performance in each of these markets over the past quarter with NOVA posting an 11.7% avg home price increase and a 20% increase in unit sales. Wash DC came in second with an 8.6% avg home price increase and a 26% increase in unit sales. Montgomery County posted strong Q3 numbers as well coming in at a 7.3% avg home price increase and a 13.7% increase in unit sales. Low interest rates continue to be a driving force in the demand for housing with rates dipping down below 3% and September interest rates according to some analysts being the lowest in recent history with no real substantive conversations about a rate increase for the foreseeable future. However, refi’s may start to slow due to a .50% fee increase Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will impose on refi’s starting on Dec 1st. On a $250,000 refi loan this charge would be $1,250. This should not impact purchase loan rates but may provide some incentive to sellers to consider selling vs refinancing their homes. Moving forward into Q4, the housing market continues to be the bright spot for the economy. We are already seeing a “V”shaped recovery in regards to housing as builder confidence remains strong with buyer demand driving this confidence. The concept of “home” has taken on new importance and we may see a return to demand for larger homes to accommodate the added amenities & entertainment options homebuyers are requesting based on current environment conditions. New construction homebuyers should expect delays in product delivery based on shortfalls of material, labor and lot availability all of which are contributing to lengthening construction delivery times. In closing, the demand for housing will remain high and the short term outlook is bright as businesses continue to adjust to the Covid pandemic and people move on with their lives. The many factors impacting our industry leaves long term predictability far from certain. Strong demand among millennials who now make up 1/3 of all home buyers, job losses that continue to plague those job sectors where workers are primarily renters and uncertainty as to the impact of distressed homeowners all playing a part on the housing market. And the usual characters of low interest rates, pent up demand, cratered inventory levels and unemployment will continue to play their part in the direction of the Q4 and Q1 2021 housing market as well. It’s a brew of many different ingredients!
- Jim Lyons, Associate Broker
KW METRO CENTER ALEXANDRIA · ARLINGTON · TYSONS · VIENNA All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data sourced from Bright MLS
C O N T E N T S M A R K E T S U M M A RY 3
DMV
MARKET
ANALYSIS
NO R T H E R N V I RG I N I A 6
ALEXANDRIA
6
ARLINGTON
6
FALLS
7
LORTON
8
LOUDOUN
CHURCH
7
McLEAN
8
S P R I NG F I E L D
8
VIENNA
8
WOODBRIDGE
WA S H I N G T O N D.C. 10
CAPITOL
HILL
10
D OW N T OW N
10
D U P O N T
11
F O G G Y
11
G E O RG E T OW N
11
K A L O R A M A
11
L O G A N
C I RC L E
12
M O U N T
P L E A SA N T
12
S H AW
12
W E S L E Y
B O T T O M / W E S T
H E I G H T S
M A RY L A N D 14
B E T H E S DA
14
C H E V Y
14
P O T O M AC
15
P R I NC E
15
R O C K V I L L E
15
SA I N T
15
S I LV E R
C H A S E G E O RG E ’ S
M A RY ’ S S P R I NG
E N D
Q3 MARKET SUMMARY 25 20 15 10
Q3 2020
DAYS ON MARKET
5 0
$ 900,000 $ 800,000 $ 700,000 $ 600,000 $ 500,000 $ 400,000 $ 300,000 $ 200,000 $ 100,000 $0
Q3 2020
AVERAGE SALE PRICE
14,000 12,000 10,000
Q3 2020
UNIT SALES
8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0
4
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
“
“
NOVA delivered a sterling performance in Q3. Arlington (+15%), Fairfax (+11.1%), Loudoun (12.3%) and Prince William (10.1%) counties all turned in exceptional performances in avg home sale price growth. Sales volume increases were even more impressive with Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William landing at +36.4%, 28.9%, 12.3% and 29.8% respectfully with both of these metrics contributing to very robust YTD numbers. Historically low inventory levels continue to be impediments to greater sales increases however, we are starting to see small inventory gains in some markets.
2019 117
2020 120
% +3
avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
$950,499 19
$1,135,548 20
+19 +5
units sold avg sold price
67 $645,061
99 $759,527
+48 +18
13 334 $344,565 15 271 $1,093,610 24
12 424 $433,813 14 347 $1,181,381 24
-8 +27 +26 -7 +28 +8 -
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
32 $702,270 13
42 $776,590 8
+31 +11 -38
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
400 $438,529 19
420 $489,603 14
+5 +12 -26
30
36
+20
avg sale price Single Family avg days on market
$992,009 42
$1,130,311 19
+14 -55
units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
1 $570,000 35
5 $812,270 6
+400 +43 -83
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
15 $461,765 28
24 $427,740 13
+60 -7 -54
units sold
Alexandria
Arlington
Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
units sold
Falls Church
MARKET BALANCE
31 8
single family homes
1
its un
The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, Sept 2020.
sold Q 32
0 02
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
→
23% SELLERS
BALANCED
2589 units sold Q3 2020
$1.01B
TOTAL SALES (SINGLE FAMILY HOMES) Q3 2020
6
BUYERS
units sold avg sold price
2019 75 $664,657
2020 82 $710,194
%
29
24
+9 +7 -17
Lorton
Single Family avg days on market
Loudon Co
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
18 $372,487 9 28 $279,217 14 985 $697,193 33
21 $444,615 14 26 $290,904 11 1197 $778,259 23
+17 +19 +56 -7 +4 -21 +22 +12 -30
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
275 $471,523 17
349 $507,417 10
+27 +8 -41
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
348 $330,394 24
421 $360,493 20
+21 +9 -17
7
2019
2020
%
157
185
+18
$1,489,304
$1,527,586
+3
51
55
+8
8 $810,463
4 $943,750
-50 +16
16 75
13 74
-19 -1
avg sold price
$407,681
$394,690
-3
Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
24 217 $579,091 17
26 259 $636,197 12
-8 +19 +10 -29
31
48
-55
avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold
$456,664 9 27
$484,068 5 32
+6 -44 +19
avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold
$257,811 12 178
$290,356 8 218
+13 -33 +22
$1,016,544 40
$1,068,548 28
+5 -30
14
18
+29
$682,249
$724,378
+6
Townhouse avg days on market
11
10
-9
units sold
34
31
-9
$380,983
$442,439
-16
Condo & Co-op avg days on market
21
12
-43
units sold
459
519
+13
$440,735
$463,444
+5
Single Family avg days on market
23
12
-48
units sold
96
147
+53
avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
$317,053 17
$352,962 10
+11 -41
units sold avg sale price
129 $267,283
154 $305,495
+19 +14
17
14
-18
units sold avg sold price
McLean
Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold
Springfield
units sold
Vienna
avg sold price Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sold price
avg sale price
avg sale price
Woodbridge
Condo & Co-op avg days on market
8
WASHINGTON, D.C.
“
“
Overall, DC delivered a fairly strong performance across most neighborhoods in the district. Q3 sales volume was up 36.4% with average home sale prices up 8.6% and unit sales up 26%. It was a mixed bag of results in September with some neighborhoods showing strong growth in average home price while others showed some decline in that metric thus impacting Q3 numbers. However, YTD numbers continue to be very positive for most neighborhoods with Capitol Hill & Downtown showing slight decline in home prices YTD. Inventory levels continue to improve significantly across most of the district portending positive growth in Q4 and Q1 2021.
2019
2020
%
5 $1,113,900
4 $1,229,500
-20 +10
Single Family avg days on market
33
130
+294
units sold
11
22
+100
$1,186,864
$1,324,205
+12
27 35
22 62
-19 +77
$671,085
$582,641
-13
18 -
31 1
+72 -
avg sold price
-
$665,000
-
Single Family avg days on market
-
2
-
units sold
1
1
-
$360,000
$1,349,000
+275
Townhouse avg days on market
8
4
-50
units sold
41
29
-29
$501,337
$549,193
+10
34
34
-
units sold avg sale price
-
2 $1,237,500
-
Single Family avg days on market
-
55
-
units sold
-
-
-
avg sale price
-
-
-
Townhouse avg days on market
-
-
-
27
27
-
$427,670
$523,663
+22
23
17
-26
units sold avg sold price
Capitol Hill
avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold
Downtown
avg sold price
avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
Dupont
units sold avg sale price
→
33%
14 2
condo & co-op
MARKET BALANCE
8
its un
The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, Sept 2020.
sold Q 32
0 02
WASHINGTON, D.C.
Condo & Co-op avg days on market
SELLERS
1077 units sold Q3 2019
$799M
BALANCED
TOTAL SALES (CONDO & CO-OP) Q3 2020
10
BUYERS
Foggy Bottom/ West End
units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold
Georgetown
Kalorama
2020
%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1 $818,000 68 28 $345,422 32 3
-
-32 +5 -3 +67
avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
$5,455,000 29
19 $363,817 31 5 $3,828,000 61
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
21 $1,599,984 38
33 $1,692,091 34
+57 +6 -11
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
20 $1,015,614 45
23 $640,685 26
+15 -37 -42
units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market
1 $1,350,000 0
3 $1,389,333 53
+200 +3 -
-
1 $3,450,000 15
-
28 $695,636 25
35 $680,186 18
+25 -2 -28
-
2 $1,187,450 77
-
1 $1,195,000 13
3 $1,106,333 6
+200 -7 -54
40 $685,634 18
64 $722,512 13
+60 +5 -28
units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
Logan Circle
2019
units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
11
-30 +110
2018
2019
%
1 $565,000 6
1 $280,000 150
-50 +2400
3 $1,306,667 26 21 $462,745 19 -
4 $1,101,750 30 20 $537,864 20 -
+33 -16 +15 -5 +16 +5 -
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
1 $861,000 270
1 $580,000 35
-33 -87
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
21 $627,138 14
42 $755,913 20
+100 +21 +43
6 $2,035,833 40
2 $2,025,500 19
-67 -.5 -53
2 $908,750 47
1 $1,175,000 6
-50 +29 -87
Mount Pleasant
units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
Shaw
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
Wesley Heights
units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
12
MARYLAND
“
“
Despite significant inventory level declines across Montgomery County, PG County and Saint Mary’s County we’ve still seen strong growth across these markets. Unit sales and average home prices increased significantly for Q3 in all three counties with sales volume being the driving force behind these numbers. Montgomery County sales volume was up 22%, PG County sales volume up 18.1% and Saint Mary’s County sales volume up 30%. Unit sales were also up in all three counties with Saint Mary’s County experiencing a 16.9% increase followed by Montgomery County up 13.7% and PG County up 5.8%. YTD numbers for cities located in MoCo continue to show the strength of the markets in Southern MD.
2019
2020
%
233
246
+6
$1,240,792 38
$1,334,488 26
+8 -32
units sold avg sold price
9 $742,739
9 $853,333
+15
Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price
17 100 $528,321
28 106 $441,434
+65 +6 -16
56 79 $1,409,611
51 74 $1,474,587
-9 -6 +5
Single Family avg days on market
30
43
+43
units sold
5
-
+20
$1,015,679 62
-
-32 -92
47
47
-
$650,611 40
$525,607 38
-19 -5
141 $1,142,438 34
209 $1,271,015 48
+48 +11 +41
4
7
+75
$1,037,750 55
$695,457 10
-33 -82
6 $870,000 43
8 $840,000 60
+33 -3 +40
units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
Bethesda
Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price
Chevy Chase
avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market
Potomac
units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
21 9
→
12%
7u
nits sold Q3
The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, Sept 2020.
2
0
single family homes
MARKET BALANCE
02
MONTGOMERY COUNTY
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
SELLERS
BALANCED
1957 units sold Q3 2019
$1.8B
TOTAL SALES (SINGLE FAMILY HOMES) Q3 2020
14
BUYERS
Prince George’s Co
Rockville
Saint Mary’s Co
2019
2020
%
units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
2054 $363,899 34
2040 $405,770 24
-1 +12 -29
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold
219 $308,903 25 368
221 $332,703 20 378
+1 +8 -20 +3
avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
$183,589 29 278 $596,143 34
$209,357 35 290 $664,736 23
+14 +21 +4 +12 -32
units sold avg sold price
22 $582,020
30 $591,484
+36 +2
Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
30 132 $319,895 37 447 $331,573 46
19 118 $333,655 34 506 $372,203 34
-37 -11 +4 -8 +13 +12 -26
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
14 $253,812 29
30 $276,033 20
+114 +9 -31
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
19 $165,353 53
25 $169,520 11
+32 +3 -79
495
498
+1
$506,482 27
$548,893 16
-9 -41
38
46
+21
$387,868 26
$422,786 13
+9 -50
235
271
+15
$228,369 32
$255,810 35
+12 +9
units sold
Silver Spring
avg sold price Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
15
get to know the good life.
KELLERWILLIAMS REALTY ®
ALEXANDRIA 1701 DUKE STREET SUITE 100 ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 703-535-3610
ARLINGTON 2101 WILSON BLVD SUITE 100 VIENNA, VA 22201 703-224-6000
TYSONS 8133 LEESBURG PIKE SUITE 800 VIENNA, VA 22182 703-564-4000
VIENNA 144 CHURCH ST NW VIENNA, VA 22180 703-564-4000