KW Metro Center Presents NORTHERN VIRGINIA, MONTGOMERY COUNTY & WASHINGTON, D.C.
MARKET REPORT Q3 2019
®
A MESSAGE FROM THE BROKER-
The Q3 Greater DC real estate market results are proving once again that historically low inventory levels continue to impact what could otherwise be a very robust housing market. These ever declining inventory levels may be driving down unit sales but home prices continue to rise at a fairly steady, if not impressive, rate with NOVA up 3.3%, Washington, D.C. up 2.9% and Montgomery County up 5.4% for Q3. Over this past year, the NOVA market has typically provided the strongest growth in both unit sales and price appreciation with D.C. .and Montgomery County slightly behind. However, the third quarter shows a bit of a reversal in this trend with Montgomery County having a very strong showing across all cities in both unit sales and price appreciation for Q3. As we move forward into the second half of 2019 and beyond, our housing market in general is undergoing several significant changes that will have long lasting consequences on the availability, affordability and price of housing in the greater D.C. market. As discussed in earlier editions, there are many factors contributing to the overall health of our housing market. The entry of millennials into the market, educational infrastructure investment, the influx of high paying jobs, local investment in transportation modes, low unemployment, seniors aging in place, sluggish housing starts (especially entry price point homes) and the entry of Amazon into our market are all having a significant impact on our market. In addition, other trends have begun to surface that will also play a part in how well our market can adapt, thrive and provide access across the housing spectrum. These trends include declining federal employment, federal job relocation, increasing numbers of self employed workers and the “suburbanization” of what we may have thought of as a traditional suburb. The shedding of federal jobs along with federal workers choosing to “stay put” instead of relocating when federal facilities change locations will help reduce the financial impact of government shut downs but will add to the housing shortages currently being experienced across our markets. As federal workers choose to forgo relocating, we will see a rise in what is being termed the “gig economy” (short term contractual work vs. long term permanent employment) impacting to some degree these workers’ ability to obtain financing. Another trend impacting our local market includes the continued “suburbanization” we’ve been experiencing over the past several years- the development of multi-use projects creating “urban areas” within traditional suburban settings. These developments offer residential, retail, transportation and green spaces designed to attract our changing population needs, requirements and demands. As home prices continue to rise, employers seek more favorable business conditons and transportation becomes an ever more important consideration in the purchasing of a home, expect to see the popularity of these urban areas continue to rise. In short, our housing market will remain strong through the remainder of 2019 and into 2020 due to strong job creation, consumer demand, Amazon’s presence and the growing entrance of millennials into the market place. Sellers can expect to see moderate price appreciation and short selling times while buyers will be vying ever more competitively for those properties paying premium prices and waiving contingencies.
- Jim Lyons, Associate Broker KW METRO CENTER ALEXANDRIA · ARLINGTON · TYSONS All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data sourced from Bright MLS
C O N T E N T S M A R K E T S U M M A RY 3
DMV
MARKET
ANALYSIS
NO R T H E R N V I RG I N I A 6
ALEXANDRIA
6
ARLINGTON
6
FALLS
7
LORTON
CHURCH
7
McLEAN
8
S P R I NG F I E L D
8
VIENNA
8
WOODBRIDGE
WA S H I N G T O N D.C. 10
CAPITOL
HILL
10
D OW N T OW N
10
D U P O N T
11
F O G G Y
11
G E O RG E T OW N
11
K A L O R A M A
11
L O G A N
C I RC L E
12
M O U N T
P L E A SA N T
12
S H AW
12
W E S L E Y
B O T T O M / W E S T
H E I G H T S
M O N T G O M E RY C O U N T Y 14
B E T H E S DA
14
C H E V Y
14
P O T O M AC
15
R O C K V I L L E
15
S I LV E R
C H A S E
S P R I NG
E N D
MARKET SUMMARY
Q3 2019
DAYS ON MARKET
Q3 2019
AVERAGE SALE PRICE
Q3 2019
UNIT SALES
4
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
“
“
Northern Virginia experienced a strong Q3 with a 3.3% increase in sales price; however, availability hampered unit sales. Demand is high, inventory is low and a myriad of other factors such as low unemployment, favorable interest rates, the influx of high paying jobs and the anticipation of the Amazon impact will continue to increase the price appreciation that has come to be an expectation from the NOVA market over the past several years. YTD, this market is up 3%.
Q3 2018 465 $704,896 30
Q3 2019 487 $729,654 22
% +5 +4 -27
523 $572,651 26 549 $329,800 32 290 $1,028,114
472 $573,015 16 506 $327,098 16 267 $1,085,623
-10 -38 -8 -1 -50 -8 -6
33
24
-27
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
150 $659,498 23
102 $645,267 11
-32 -2 -52
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
451 $417,138 30
396 $438,330 19
-12 +5 -37
units sold avg sale price
211 $803,177
208 $829,725
-1 +3
32
30
-6
units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
69 $601,868 20
53 $609,798 16
-23 -1 -20
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
128 $274,672 32
141 $304,348 14
+10 +11 -56
units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
Alexandria
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price
Arlington
Single Family avg days on market
→
9%
The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, Sept 2019
01 9
5,2 8
MARKET BALANCE
nits sold Q3 u 2 3
20
un its
BALANCED
BUYERS
19
SELLERS
1
single family homes
Single Family avg days on market
4,85
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
Falls Church
3 sold Q
$3.7B TOTAL SALES (SINGLE FAMILY HOMES) Q3 2019
6
Photo Courtesy of Red Door Metro
Q3 2018
Q3 2019
%
57 $670,772
75 $664,657
+32 -1
30
29
-3
66 $398,348 22 20 $260,250 14 135 $1,601,042 40
76 $393,805 16 28 $279,217 14 157 $1,500,195 52
+15 -1 -27 +40 +7 +16 -6 +30
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
25 $787,552 29
21 $880,605 14
-16 +12 -52
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
68 $365,480 35
73 $400,371 24
+7 +10 -31
units sold avg sold price
Lorton
Single Family avg days on market
McLean
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
7
Springfield
units sold
Q3 2018 224
Q3 2019 216
% -4
avg sold price
$569,803
$576,313
+1
23
17
-26
163 $410,425
131 $443,609
-20 +8
15 31
12 26
-20 -16
avg sold price
$262,207
$258,112
-2
Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price
17 183 $969,462
11 178 $1,005,934
-35 -3 +4
36
41
+14
46 $653,309
47 $655,868
+2 -
Townhouse avg days on market
19
22
+16
units sold
35
34
-3
$420,487 50
$380,983 21
-9 -58
451
454
+1
$401,780
$439,697
+9
Single Family avg days on market
27
24
-11
units sold
384
392
+2
$299,426
$310,005
+4
Townhouse avg days on market
24
18
-25
units sold
133
128
-4
$271,214
$267,769
-1
27
17
-37
Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold
Vienna
Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sold price
avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sale price
Woodbridge
avg sale price
avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
Photo Courtesy of Red Door Metro
8
WASHINGTON, DC
“
“
Strong unit sales across the district fueled the 2.9% price appreciation despite lagging inventory levels. Capitol Hill, Logan Circle and Shaw were the stand outs with especially strong increases in both unit sales and price appreciation. The ongoing development of several large residential projects portend a healthy housing market well into 2020.
Q3 2018
Q3 2019
%
4
1
-75
avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
$1,068,875 29
$957,000 4
-10 -86
units sold avg sold price
24 $1,179,385
24 $1,276,729
+8
34 13
24 9
-29 -31
$456,910
$413,236
-10
25 -
19 -
-24 -
avg sold price
-
-
-
Single Family avg days on market
-
-
-
units sold
2
5
+150
$590,000
$1,455,310
+147
Townhouse avg days on market
29
23
-21
units sold
42
40
-5
$386,893 27
$508,455 35
+31 +30
units sold avg sale price
-
-
-
Single Family avg days on market
-
-
-
units sold
4
4
-
$1,452,875
$1,737,500
+20
Townhouse avg days on market
42
25
-41
units sold
24
27
+13
$405,588
$427,670
+5
27
23
-15
units sold
Capitol Hill
Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold
Downtown
avg sold price
avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
Dupont
avg sale price
avg sale price
MARKET BALANCE
7
ts sold Q3 un i
The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, Sept 2019
2
01 8
11 1
→ 7
un its
BALANCED
BUYERS
19
SELLERS
20
condo & co-op
4%
107
WASHINGTON, D.C.
Condo & Co-op avg days on market
3 sold Q
$570M TOTAL SALES (CONDO & CO-OP) Q3 2019
10
Foggy Bottom/ West End
Q3 2018 -
Q3 2019 1 $690,000 0
% -
5
7
+40
avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold
$1,186,500 30 62
$983,286 38 71
-17 +27 +15
avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
$674,309 54 6 $2,886,118 325
$630,128 38 3 $5,455,000 29
-7 -29 -50 +89 -91
21
20
-5
$1,648,303 37
$1,603,695 42
-3 +14
15 $784,602 40
20 $1,015,614 45
+33 +29 +13
3 $3,184,333 210
1 $1,350,000 0
-66 -58 -
units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
14 $978,607 39
4 $2,541,000 14
-71 +159 -64
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
54 $528,067 26
37 $636,073 23
-31 +20 -12
-
-
-
units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
7 $950,643 56
7 $1,173,614 23
+23 -59
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
35 $734,190 23
40 $685,634 18
+14 -7 -22
units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market units sold
Georgetown
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
Kalorama
Logan Circle
units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market
units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market
11
Q3 2018 1 $447,000 6
Q3 2019 1 $565,000 6
% +26 -
Mount Pleasant
units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
Shaw
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
21 $1,071,688 18 41 $546,297 20 -
16 $1,145,437 20 21 $462,745 19 -
-24 +7 +11 -49 -15 -5 -
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
10 $1,092,480 15
11 $919,727 52
+10 -16 +247
15 $853,519 15
21 $627,138 14
+40 -27 -7
2 $1,662,500 3
6 $2,035,833 40
+200 +22 +1233
units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
7 $825,571 23
4 $953,375 43
-43 -15 +87
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
21 $444,479 35
12 $449,042 60
-43 +1 +71
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market
Wesley Heights
Photo Courtesy of Red Door Metro
12
MONTGOMERY COUNTY
“
“
Montgomery County turned in a very strong performance across all cities and across most metrics used to measure performance in the housing market. In all but one city, unit sales were up in the double digit range resulting in an overall increase of 5.4% for the quarter. Redevelopment efforts in downtown Bethesda, the Chevy Chase Lake project and smaller neighborhood projects in adjoining cities will continue to enhance the overall housing market in Montgomery County.
Q3 2018 190
Q3 2019 228
% +20
$1,212,200 37
$1,243,322 40
+3 +8
33
26
+9
avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold
$790,550 31 90
$868,443 32 100
+10 +3 +11
avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold
$397,078 54 71
$528,321 56 79
+3 +4 +11
$1,390,497
$1,409,611
+1
31
31
-
8 $785,938
14 $809,600
+75 +3
37
35
-5
39 $635,936
47 $650,611
+21 +2
57
42
-26
128 $1,163,563 45
141 $1,142,438 34
+10 -2 -24
17 $803,982
16 $901,531
-6 +12
47
41
-13
1 $950,000 114
6 $870,000 43
+500 -8 -62
units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
Bethesda
units sold
avg sold price
Chevy Chase
Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market
Potomac
units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
→
nits sold Q3 u 2 7
9
19 5
The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, Sept 2019
01 SELLERS
un
20 18
single family homes
MARKET BALANCE
10%
4 178
MONTGOMERY COUNTY
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
its sold Q3
BALANCED
BUYERS
$1.4B TOTAL SALES (SINGLE FAMILY HOMES) Q3 2019
14
Photo Courtesy of Jacob Smith Hamilton
Q3 2018 239 $576,767
Q3 2019 276 $593,661
% +15 +3
27
34
+26
units sold avg sold price
87 $541,145
92 $535,391
+6 -1
Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
23 114 $341,122 34 431 $482,224 26
30 132 $319,895 37 491 $506,909 27
+30 +16 -6 +9 +14 +5 +4
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
129 $361,167 25
142 $358,603 23
+10 -1 -8
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
233 $204,926 30
232 $226,999 32
+11 +7
units sold avg sold price
Rockville
Silver Spring
Single Family avg days on market
15
Photos Courtesy of KW Metro Center Alexandria
KELLERWILLIAMS REALTY ®
ALEXANDRIA 1701 DUKE STREET SUITE 100 ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 703-535-3610
ARLINGTON 2101 WILSON BLVD SUITE 100 VIENNA, VA 22201 703-224-6000
TYSONS 8133 LEESBURG PIKE SUITE 800 VIENNA, VA 22182 703-564-4000