KW Metro Center Presents NORTHERN VIRGINIA, MONTGOMERY COUNTY & WASHINGTON, D.C.
Q2 2020
MARKET REPORT
®
A MESSAGE FROM THE BROKER-
The Greater Washington DC Real Estate market showed surprisingly strong results in Q2 of 2020 despite the current Covid environment. Although home sale prices continued their march upward, showing strength across all jurisdictions particularly in the YTD increases, inventory levels continue to slump while DOM (days on market) have declined to their lowest levels that in the past several years. Historically low interest rates continue to drive buyer demand but plunging inventory levels will continue to be the greatest obstacle for sustained growth. Home sale prices have been the stand out performers in this unpredictable market with NOVA (+6.5%) once again leading the pack with the strongest YTD growth in Arlington County (+10.8%), Loudoun County (+7.4%), Prince William County (+6.8%) and Fairfax County (+6.8%). Prince George’s County posted a sterling YTD home sale price increase of +9.6% with Wash DC coming in at +4.1 and Montgomery County landing at +2.9%. Impressive numbers across the metro area in this highly unpredictable market. Despite market uncertainty and the loss of jobs (approximately 502k as of May*, primarily in the travel and hospitality sectors) across the greater DC market, homes are being snatched up as quickly as they come to market. Moving forward into 2020, a new wave of concern among other industries (tech, professional & business services) regarding potential lay offs and wage reductions could impact the housing market in the second half of the year. However, as of now low interest rates, pent up buyer demand and consumer confidence in real estate as a safe haven continues to fuel our housing market. Several aspects of the housing market brought much needed confidence during this turbulent time. Purchase mortgages were up anywhere from 1333% (depending on locale) for resale & 54% YOY for new construction nationally. Housing starts jumped 17.3% in June with single family and multi generational housing leading the way. Additionally, third party participants (lenders, title & other servicers) have added new technologies and refined their electronic processes such that remote and online settlements have become commonplace and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future. Traditionally, buyers and therefore homeowners chose to live where they chose to work. The recent massive change of American workers working remotely from home (56%)** could upend housing preferences as ¾ quarters of these workers would like to continue to do so. Exurbs, suburbs and smaller towns could be the prime beneficiaries of this new “work from home” environment as online searches for single family homes in outlying areas bare out this recent trend. There are many opinions as to where the real estate market is headed in the second half of 2020. Here in the DC metro area, we’ve had the good fortune to be somewhat insulated from the volatility other metro areas have historically experienced. We’ve seen continual stable price growth across our markets but lagging inventory levels hamper the ability for it to perform at it’s optimal potential. Employment concerns, reticent sellers and uncertainty in general will factor into where our real estate market lands in 2020. In the meantime, sellers continue getting top prices and buyers scramble to compete for the most desired homes available. Seems like some things never change…
-Jim Lyons, Associate Broker *Washington Post 5/21 (John D Harden) **Zillow 5/13 PRNewswire
KW METRO CENTER ALEXANDRIA · ARLINGTON · TYSONS · VIENNA All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data sourced from Bright MLS Photo credits to Christine Sennott, Suzi Welch & Red Door Metro
C O N T E N T S M A R K E T S U M M A RY 3
DMV
MARKET
ANALYSIS
NO R T H E R N V I RG I N I A 6
ALEXANDRIA
6
ARLINGTON
6
FALLS
7
LORTON
8
LOUDOUN
CHURCH
7
McLEAN
8
S P R I NG F I E L D
8
VIENNA
8
WOODBRIDGE
WA S H I N G T O N D.C. 10
CAPITOL
HILL
10
D OW N T OW N
10
D U P O N T
11
F O G G Y
11
G E O RG E T OW N
11
K A L O R A M A
11
L O G A N
C I RC L E
12
M O U N T
P L E A SA N T
12
S H AW
12
W E S L E Y
B O T T O M / W E S T
H E I G H T S
M O N T G O M E RY C O U N T Y 14
B E T H E S DA
14
C H E V Y
14
P O T O M AC
15
P R I NC E
15
R O C K V I L L E
15
S I LV E R
C H A S E G E O RG E ’ S S P R I NG
E N D
Q2 MARKET SUMMARY 30 25 20
Q2 2020
DAYS ON MARKET
15 10 5 0
$ 800,000 $ 700,000 $ 600,000 $ 500,000
Q2 2020
$ 400,000 $ 300,000
AVERAGE SALE PRICE
$ 200,000 $ 100,000 $0
12,000
Q2 2020
UNIT SALES
10,000 8,000
6,000 4,000 2,000 0
4
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
“
“
Northern Virginia posted strong price growth for the 2nd quarter of 2020 with average home sale prices growing at +4.8% in Q2 and +6.5% YTD. Demand, low interest rates and lack of inventory continue to be the drivers behind these price metrics. Active listings were down -42.3% quarter over quarter as unit sales fell almost -19% against the same period LY. Homes continue to sell as fast as they come on the market with DOM (days on market) averaging only 22 days or -12% over LY.
2019 129
2020 118
% -9
avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
$959,698 15
$998,254 17
+4 +13
units sold avg sold price
296 $751,069
223 $731,690
-25 -3
14 407 $369,464 13 333 $1,092,281 23
13 306 $394,423 14 223 $1,112,937 23
-7 -25 +7 +8 -33 +2 -
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
126 $644,451 13
125 $670,017 10
-1 +4 -23
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
449 $457,110 17
312 $469,757 13
-30.5 -3 -24
49
32
-35
$1,086,170 24
$1,143,780 20
-5 -17
units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
11 $901,755 6
4 $769,000 5
-64 -15 -17
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
17 $582,589 38
13 $409,538 7
-24 -30 -82
units sold
Alexandria
Arlington
Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
units sold
Falls Church
avg sale price Single Family avg days on market
MARKET BALANCE
6,1 8
nits sold Q2 u 2 5
9
single family homes
The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, June 2020
01
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
→
18% SELLERS
BALANCED
5,068 units sold Q2 2020
$3.67B
TOTAL SALES (SINGLE FAMILY HOMES) Q2 2020
6
BUYERS
Photo Courtesy of Red Door Metro
units sold avg sold price
2019 53 $679,237
2020 60 $706,914
% -12 -4
21
16
-24
Lorton
Single Family avg days on market
Loudoun
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
77 $442,222 11 14 $273,720 7 1030 $676,432 22
65 $415,183 12 17 $292,747 8 913 $709,282 20
-16 -6 +9 -21 -21 +7 -11 +5 -9
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
971 $447,672 14
779 $470,551 13
-20 +5 -7
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
372 $330,885 17
307 $357,227 20
-17 -8 +18
7
2019
2020
%
183
127
-31
$1,449,220
$1,564,368
+8
33
40
+21
27 $791,619
19 $916,976
-30 +16
7 85
25 50
+257 -41
avg sold price
$496,929
$502,657
+1
Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
27 294 $600,629 12
21 221 $609,378 10
-22 -25 +1 -17
169
126
-25
avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold
$432,790 10 37
$463,383 8 24
-7 -20 -35
avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold
$291,078 11 224
$310,400 7 169
+7 -36 -25
avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
$982,245 30
$1,032,501 28
+5 -7
63
33
-48
$668,912
$647,636
-3
Townhouse avg days on market
24
10
-58
units sold
46
27
-41
$383,352
$421,330
-10
Condo & Co-op avg days on market
20
25
+25
units sold
504
402
-20
$431,691
$456,808
+6
Single Family avg days on market
24
17
-29
units sold
440
349
-21
avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
$315,485 17
$328,477 15
+4 -12
units sold avg sale price
157 $268,879
111 $290,330
-29 +8
19
15
-21
units sold avg sold price
McLean
Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold
Springfield
units sold
Vienna
units sold avg sold price
avg sale price
avg sale price
Woodbridge
Condo & Co-op avg days on market
8
WASHINGTON, D.C.
“
“
Washington DC performed at an admirable pace with a home sale price growth of +5.7% for the quarter and a +4.11% YTD increase despite unit sales being down -28% quarter over quarter. Active listings were not as discouraging compared to the rest of the jurisdictions only being down -8.5%YTD. Neighborhoods delivered a mixed bag of results with Georgetown leading the way with a +56% increase in average home sale prices in Q2 and a +65% YTD increase.
2019
2020
%
6 $826,125
6 $832,825
+1
Single Family avg days on market
16
20
+25
units sold
113
72
-36
$1,098,518
$1,028,934
-6
19 62
15 34
-21 -45
$531,499
$597,709
+12
17 -
18 -
+6 -
avg sold price
-
-
-
Single Family avg days on market
-
-
-
units sold
1
1
-
$1,545,000
$500,000
-68
Townhouse avg days on market
7
134
+1814
units sold
43
19
-56
$532,800
$588,889
+11
20
37
+85
units sold avg sale price
-
-
-
Single Family avg days on market
-
-
-
units sold
7
1
-86
$1,419,429
$1,017,500
-28
Townhouse avg days on market
10
5
-50
units sold
38
11
-71
$546,584
$663,545
+21
21
22
+5
units sold avg sold price
Capitol Hill
avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold
Downtown
avg sold price
avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
Dupont
avg sale price
avg sale price
29%
nits sold Q2 u 2 0
9
1,3 1
The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, June 2020
01
condo & co-op
MARKET BALANCE
→
WASHINGTON, D.C.
Condo & Co-op avg days on market
SELLERS
BALANCED
927 units sold Q2 2020
$508.8M
TOTAL SALES (CONDO & CO-OP) Q2 2020
10
BUYERS
Foggy Bottom/ West End
Georgetown
2019
2020
%
units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
1 $1,300,00 3
-
-
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold
1 $900,00 30 89 $640,699 56 4
1 $1,560,00 0 38 $670,247 48 6
+73 -100 -57 +5 -14 +50
$2,194,608 79
$6,808,317 50
+210 -37
27
23
-15
$1,507,756 38
$1,560,878 26
+4 -32
25
17
-32
$665,801 37
$1,066,306 47
+60 +27
2 $3,350,000
3 $2,449,700
+50 -27
188
83
-56
6 $1,324,583 17
3 $1,373,000 39
-50 +4 +129
48 $792,820 16
25 $678,988 27
-48 -14 +69
units sold avg sale price
-
-
-
Single Family avg days on market
-
-
-
10 $1,409,716 12
8 $1,019,00 17
-20 -28 +42
67 $724,838 23
34 $753,488 21
-49 +4 -9
avg sold price Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sale price
Kalorama
Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
Logan Circle
units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
11
-
2018
2019
%
2 $326,150 9
-
-
26
-50 +8 -4 -50 -11 -23 -
Mount Pleasant
units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
Shaw
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
$1,108,623 24 36 $546,553 30 -
13 $1,192,308 23 18 $488,833 23 -
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
21 $1,143,265 11
15 $1,425,760 12
-29 -25 +9
17 $711,100 20
15 $749,541 18
-12 -89 -10
6 $1,852,583 32
7 $2,106,071 14
+17 +14 -56
units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
7 $793,301 51
6 $945,833 18
-14 +19 -65
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
29 $431,438 47
18 $543,694 42
-38 +26 -11
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
Wesley Heights
units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market
Photo Courtesy of Red Door Metro
12
MONTGOMERY COUNTY
“
“
Overall, Montgomery County delivered a reasonable performance given its active listings were down -40% quarter over quarter. Average home sale prices recorded a Q2 increase of +2.8% despite unit sales being down almost -22% and YTD home sale prices stand at a +2.9% increase. Prince George’s County experienced a very strong Q2 home sale price increase landing at +9.3% with a YTD increase of 9.6%. Unit sales were down -19% for the quarter while active listings plummeted to -43% from the previous year.
2019
2020
%
281
212
-25
$1,142,092 32
$1,200,924 32
+5 -
units sold avg sold price
23 $781,140
18 $914,111
-22 +17
Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price
34 89 $435,644
39 73 $366,584
+15 -18 -16
45 94 $1,379,313
34 62 $1,508,432
-24 -34 +9
Single Family avg days on market
30
31
+3
units sold
10
10
-
$936,498 13
$780,800 43
-17 +231
51
31
-39
$564,778 49
$483,942 42
-14 -14
163 $1,101,118 42
127 $1,098,742 39
-22 -7
24
21
-13
avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
$651,925 21
$656,455 38
+1 +81
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
3 $697,300 79
2 $719,500 133
-33 +3 +68
units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
Bethesda
Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price
Chevy Chase
avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market
Potomac
MARKET BALANCE
nits sold 2 0
2,
8u 5 2
The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, June 2020
19
single family homes
21.5%
→
MONTGOMERY COUNTY
units sold
SELLERS
BALANCED
1,773 units sold 2020
$1.3B
TOTAL SALES (SINGLE FAMILY HOMES) Q2 2020
14
BUYERS
Photo Courtesy of Suzi Welch
2019
2020
%
2145
1608
$355,334 39
$389,847 30
-25 +10
739
585
-21
avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price
$289,773 30 345 $180,142
$302,143 23 291 $186,142
+4 -23 -16 +3
Rockville
Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
32 313 $594,270 22
29 268 $619,209 20
-9 -14 +4 -9
Silver Spring
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
89 $557,540 25 144 $326,988 31 563 $514,452 24
79 $541,416 21 94 $344,090 27 393 $529,946 18
-11 -3 -16 -35 +5 -13 -30 +3 -25
151
89
-41
$375,388 25
$386,106 20
+3 -20
233
159
-32
$236,339 26
$239,001 36
+1 +38
units sold
Prince George’s
avg sold price Single Family avg days on market units sold
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
15
-23
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KELLERWILLIAMS REALTY ®
ALEXANDRIA 1701 DUKE STREET SUITE 100 ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 703-535-3610
ARLINGTON 2101 WILSON BLVD SUITE 100 ARLINGTON, VA 22201 703-224-6000
TYSONS 8133 LEESBURG PIKE SUITE 800 VIENNA, VA 22182 703-564-4000
VIENNA 144 CHURCH ST NW VIENNA, VA 22180 703-564-4000