KW Metro Center Presents NORTHERN VIRGINIA, MARYLAND & WASHINGTON, D.C. 2020 YEAR IN REVIEW
MARKET REPORT
®
A MESSAGE FROM THE BROKERThe books have officially closed on the 2020 real estate market for the Greater D.C. market and the results were truly remarkable. Home price increases again lead the way in the robust market we experienced in 2020 followed closely by increasing unit sales despite our continued depressed inventory levels. All three jurisdictions performed at elevated levels with NOVA once again leading the way. NOVA Home prices were up 9% YTD and unit sales up 7% followed closely by both Montgomery County up 6.3% in home sale price and 6.1% unit sales. Washington, D.C. landed at a very respectful increase in home prices up 6.5% and unit sales coming in at 4%. As we enter the spring market, all signs indicate the 2021 real estate performance will mirror the market of 2020 with some analysts predicting even stronger results. Although the virus has caused some concern, it has not and will not hamper the enthusiasm and demand for home ownership in 2021. Demand and low interest rates will be the driving forces with predictions for home price increases in 2021 ranging from 3%-9% depending on source but if 2020 is any indication, I would expect prices to land in the 5%-7% range at year end. The National Association of Realtors is forecasting a 9% growth rate for existing home sales in 2021 rounding out what many see as a very robust market. The housing market in 2021 will continue to be fiercely competitive. As home prices increase and demand remains high, affordability may start to become an issue for entry level and first time home buyers. As prices increase, affordability drops and this can have a negative effect freezing out a sizable portion of the home buying public. There has been some conversation on the political level regarding student debt relief and a proposed $15,000 first time home buyer tax credit to promote home ownership, thereby helping these buyers as well as the move up buyers. New construction will command a sizable portion of the home purchases in 2021. Analysts are predicting as high as a 23% increase in new home sales making this a significant segment of the local and national housing market. Housing starts are up 12.6% for single family homes but lot availability, skyrocketing building materials costs coupled with increasing labor costs will certainly have an effect on new home construction pricing. Major concerns with land prices and lot availability will drive developers further out from major job centers but the change in our view of the traditional work requirements vs the current trend of remote work requirements should offset this concern. Home ownership is expected to rise above 69% for the first time since 2005-a very positive trend for all the ancillary businesses that support home ownership. Millennials will continue to comprise a large segment of the home buying public with younger millennials (turning 30) making up the first time/entry level home buyer ranks and the older Millennials as move up buyers. Asian Americans will play a more prominent role in the home buying process as their income growth continues to rise. Expect Gen Z buyers to start making their presence felt in 2021 as well. The concern some have expressed with the mortgage forbearance offered to home owners through the CARES act should not constitute a major concern as lenders are willing to be more cooperative and less punitive managing any foreclosure issues that may arise. Unlike the last housing bubble crash where reckless lending, irresponsible borrowing and wild speculation contributed greatly to what that eventually led to, lenders and regulators have instituted reforms that guard against such behaviors today. Despite all that has transpired this past year and the challenges we face this year, the outlook for the 2021 housing market looks exceptionally bright. Ongoing progress in major transportation and building projects throughout the Greater DC area promise a return to a normalized business environment. Seller and buyers alike will be trying to take full advantage of the opportunities offered in the way of low interest rates, increasing inventory levels and a renewed desire for home ownership. - Jim Lyons, Associate Broker
KW METRO CENTER ALEXANDRIA ¡ ARLINGTON ¡ TYSONS ¡ VIENNA All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data sourced from Bright MLS
C O N T E N T S
NO R T H E R N V I RG I N I A 6
ALEXANDRIA
6
ARLINGTON
6
FALLS
7
LORTON
8
LOUDOUN
7
McLEAN
8
S P R I NG F I E L D
8
VIENNA
8
WOODBRIDGE
CHURCH
WA S H I N G T O N D.C. 10
CAPITOL
HILL
10
D OW N T OW N
10
D U P O N T
11
F O G G Y
11
G E O RG E T OW N
11
K A L O R A M A
11
L O G A N
C I RC L E
12
M O U N T
P L E A SA N T
12
S H AW
12
W E S L E Y
B O T T O M / W E S T
H E I G H T S
M A RY L A N D 14
B E T H E S DA
14
C H E V Y
14
P O T O M AC
15
P R I NC E
15
R O C K V I L L E
15
SA I N T
15
S I LV E R
C H A S E G E O RG E ’ S
M A RY ’ S S P R I NG
E N D
2020 MARKET SUMMARY 35 30 25
2020
DAYS ON MARKET
20 15 10 5 0
$800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0
2020
UNIT SALES
2020
AVERAGE SALE PRICE
18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0
4
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
“
“
NOVA delivered spectacular results in 2020. Average sold price was up 9% with unit sales coming in at a 7% increase. Three counties – Alexandria City (+13.5%), Arlington County (+11.6%) and Loudoun County (+10.1%) all posted double digit YTD increases. No slackers themselves, Prince William County (+9.3%) and Fairfax County (+8.5%) also posted exceptional average home sale price increases. Unit sales followed suit with sales units ranging from +3%-10%. Days on Market (-24%) continue to decline across all of NOVA averaging just 19 days down from 25 days in 2019 putting sellers in the driver’s seat while home buyers compete for choice properties while having to waive typical contract contingencies. Cities of note with sterling performances: Lorton, McLean, Springfield, Vienna and Woodbridge.
2019 418
2020 442
% +5.7
avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
$936,812 20
$1,077,299 23
+15 +15
units sold avg sold price
911 $726,306
1024 $767,515
+12.4 +5.7
19 1324 $368,902 18 1005 $1,081,748 29
16 1401 $438,932 17 1012 $1,186,076 23
-15.8 +5.8 +19 -5.6 +0.7 +9.6 -20.7
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
419 $657,847 15
508 $710,333 13
+21.2 +8 -13.3
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
1501 $445,363 21
1438 $477,866 18
-4.2 +7.3 -14.3
119
91
-23.5
$1,016,132 35
$1,125,888 18
+10.8 -48.6
units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
29 $777,007 19
34 $674,898 8
+17.2 -13.4 -57.9
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
49 $511,620 29
68 $429,049 14
+38.8 -16.1 -51.7
units sold
Alexandria
Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
Arlington
units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market
Falls Church
MARKET BALANCE
units sold
20 ,
single family homes
5 21
The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, Dec 2020.
2 0 02
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
→
8% SELLERS
BALANCED
18,721 units sold 2019
$15B
TOTAL SALES (SINGLE FAMILY HOMES) 2020
6
BUYERS
Photo Courtesy of JB Kirkland, REALTORÂŽ
units sold avg sold price
2019 222 $669,810
2020 228 $752,473
%
36
31
+2.7 +12.3 -13.9
Lorton
Single Family avg days on market
Loudoun Co
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
260 $430,042 17 68 $276,858 19 3247 $684,738 33
270 $447,544 15 70 $292,050 13 3726 $753,144 22
+3.9 +4.1 -11.8 +2.9 +5.5 -31.6 +14.8 +10 -33.3
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
3108 $451,672 18
3306 $481,522 14
+6.4 +6.6 -22.2
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
1220 $330,840 22
1374 $359,541 22
+12.6 +8.7 -
7
2019
2020
%
569
591
+3.7
$1,484,457
$1,605,918
+8.2
45
48
+6.7
88 $860,695
80 $912,516
-9.1 +6
27 289
31 254
+14.8 -12.1
avg sold price
$442,138
$490,094
+10.9
Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
29 858 $586,485 20
26 801 $624,397 14
-10.3 -6.6 +6.5 -30
507
565
+11.4
avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold
$428,087 14 114
$458,840 10 129
+7.2 -28.6 +13.2
avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold
$272,598 15 684
$302,766 10 708
+11.1 -33.3 +3.5
avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
$985,214 37
$1,052,617 33
+6.8 -10.8
176
167
-5.1
$652,719
$666,850
+2.2
Townhouse avg days on market
28
16
-42.9
units sold
128
101
-21.1
$383,184
$397,032
+3.6
22
22
-
1612
1663
+3.2
$428,209
$458,748
+7.1
29
17
-41.4
1448
1514
+4.6
avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
$312,261 22
$336,139 14
+7.7 -36.4
units sold avg sale price
496 $264,011
519 $294,116
+4.6 +11.4
22
15
-31.8
units sold avg sold price
McLean
Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold
Springfield
units sold
Vienna
units sold avg sold price
avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sale price
Woodbridge
Single Family avg days on market units sold
Condo & Co-op avg days on market
8
WASHINGTON, D.C.
“
“
The Washington, D.C. market delivered a solid performance with an average home price increase of 6.5% with unit sales being up 4%. Days on Market dropped just a bit from 29 days in 2019 to just 27 days in 2020. Inventory levels were up significantly (+17.6%) in December and continue to climb with the growth of residential developments. Condo inventory will gain the most in available units as the “work from home” phenomena becomes more prevalent in 2021 as evidenced in the Downtown area of the city. Neighborhoods throughout the city showed varying levels of home price increases with Foggy Bottom/West End, Kalorama, Logan Circle, Mt Pleasant, Shaw, and Wesley Heights turning in the strongest performances. 2021 could be a defining period for Washington, D.C. as inventories climb and families look elsewhere to call home.
2019
2020
%
20 $881,553
15 $998,630
-25 +13.3
Single Family avg days on market
27
45
+66.7
units sold
385
379
-1.6
$1,073,191
$1,097,044
+2.2
21 164
20 187
-4.8 +14
$567,361
$600,997
+5.9
23 1
30 1
+30.4 0
$1,140,000
$665,000
-41.7
Single Family avg days on market
52
2
-96.2
units sold
11
12
+9.1
$1,516,282
$960,242
-36.7
Townhouse avg days on market
22
72
+227.3
units sold
146
135
-7.5
$525,056
$524,333
-0.1
28
35
+25
1 $1,140,000
2 $1,237,500
+100 +8.6
52
55
+5.8
units sold
-
-
-
avg sale price
-
-
-
Townhouse avg days on market
-
-
-
108
71
+34.3
$525,601
$552,301
+5.1
25
23
-8
units sold avg sold price
Capitol Hill
avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price
Downtown
avg sold price
avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sale price
Dupont
Single Family avg days on market
units sold avg sale price
→
6%
8u 90
The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, Dec 2020.
nits sold 2 0
8,
condo & co-op
MARKET BALANCE
20
WASHINGTON, D.C.
Condo & Co-op avg days on market
SELLERS
8,404 units
BALANCED
sold 2019
$3.3B
TOTAL SALES (CONDO & CO-OP) 2020
10
BUYERS
Foggy Bottom/ West End
units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold
Georgetown
%
1
-
$1,300,000
-
3
-
-
5 $812,400 33 93 $397,984 43 52
2 $860,000
-60 +5.9 +78.8 -31.2 +20.3 +9.3 +7.7
avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
$1,693,093 66
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
151 $1,126,044 39
158 $1,108,497 30
+4.6 -1.6 -23.1
104 $766,715 44
95 $817,955 33
-8.7 +6.7 -25
units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market
7 $1,942,771 55
12 $2,053,342 47
-71.4 +5.7 -14.6
units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
19 $1,737,105 47
24 $1,910,771 60
+26.32 +10 +27.7
143 $722,911 22
126 $669,836 27
-11.9 -7.3 +22.7
-
2 $1,187,450 77
-
29 $1,388,254 14
55 $1,325,989 23
+89.7 -4.5 +64.3
178 $694,079 21
182 $752,586 20
+2.3 +8.4 -4.8
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
Logan Circle
2020
7 64 $478,750 47 56 $1,978,089 45
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
Kalorama
2019
units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
11
+16.8 -31.8
2019
2020
%
4 $829,325 26
1 $280,000 150
-75 -66.2 +476.9
76
+11.8 +4.3 -11.1 -6.1 +2.1 -29 -
Mount Pleasant
units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
Shaw
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
$1,123,825 18 98 $534,976 31 -
85 $1,171,854 16 92 $546,110 22 3 $916,300 91
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
59 $1,029,272 27
71 $1,097,593 25
+20.3 +6.6 -7.4
72 $671,310 15
103 $761,497 21
+43.1 +13.4 +40
23 $2,073,130 38
21 $2,021,310 29
-8.7 -2.5 -23.7
units sold avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
21 $885,434 49
26 $958,748 25
+23.8 +8.3 -49
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
75 $474,601 55
63 $537,869 32
-16 +13.3 -41.8
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
Wesley Heights
units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market
Photo Courtesy of JB Kirkland, REALTORÂŽ
12
MARYLAND
“
“
Inventory levels continue to hamper the southern Maryland suburbs in what truly could be a very robust real estate market. Cities across Montgomery County (+6.3%) delivered strong home price growth while unit sales varied from city to city. Inventory levels in both Montgomery County (-35%) and PG Counties (-53%) significantly impacted an otherwise significant performance in 2020. Prince George’s County delivered a +10.7% increase in average home sale price growth with unit sales coming in at a disappointing -.1%. All cities showed great home price growth while days on market declined at a very rapid pace. This market should show continued growth in 2021 as buyers choose suburbs over city living.
2019
2020
%
856
830
-3
$1,187,407 40
$1,302,700 30
+9.7 -25
units sold avg sold price
99 $868,995
96 $894,659
-3 +3
Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price
38 335 $471,179
35 369 $449,629
-7.9 +10.2 -4.6
52 291 $1,354,623
45 259 $1,540,074
-13.5 -11 +13.4
Single Family avg days on market
38
39
+2.6
units sold
33
35
+6.1
$903,987 25
$909,960 42
+0.7 +68
165
139
-15.8
$651,587 49
$587,732 46
-9.8 -6.1
494 $1,117,577 49
597 $1,229,986 46
+20.9 +10.1 -6.1
75
88
+17.3
avg sale price Townhouse avg days on market
$716,444 32
$738,429 22
+3.1 -31.3
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
14 $842,528 40
14 $857,643 66
+1.8 +65
units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
Bethesda
Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price
Chevy Chase
avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sale price Single Family avg days on market
Potomac
→
12%
9u 24
The market balance is determined by the average months of supply, Dec 2020.
nits sold 2 0
7,
single family homes
MARKET BALANCE
20
MONTGOMERY COUNTY
units sold
SELLERS
BALANCED
6,936 units sold 2019
$5.6B
TOTAL SALES (SINGLE FAMILY HOMES) 2020
14
BUYERS
Prince George’s Co
Rockville
Saint Mary’s Co
2019
2020
%
units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
5000+ $350,742 40
5000+ $389,435 32
+11 -20
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold
2896 $293,003 31 1337
2839 $317,120 21 1359
-2 +8.2 -31.3 +1.7
avg sold price Condo & Co-op avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
$181,137 32 969 $581,540 30
$201,071 29 1022 $635,766 22
+11 -9.4 +5.5 +9.3 -26.7
units sold avg sold price
310 $546,163
385 $573,215
+24.2 +5
Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sold price avg days on market units sold avg sold price Single Family avg days on market
33 480 $315,190 41 1519 $321,095 52
24 439 $346,382 33 1723 $359,179 37
-27.3 -8.5 +9.9 -19.5 +13.4 +11.9 -28.9
units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market
233 $223,240 61
284 $255,415 36
+21.9 +14.4 -41
units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
53 $162,412 45
65 $168,543 14
+22.6 +3.8 -68.9
1740
1699
-2.4
$503,293 29
$540,063 18
+7.3 -37.9
501
507
+1.2
$374,469 27
$387,099 23
+3.4 -14.8
833
894
+7.3
$231,391 33
$249,408 34
+7.8 +3
units sold
Silver Spring
avg sold price Single Family avg days on market units sold avg sold price Townhouse avg days on market units sold avg sale price Condo & Co-op avg days on market
15
get to know the good life.
KELLERWILLIAMS REALTY ®
ALEXANDRIA 1701 DUKE STREET SUITE 100 ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 703-535-3610
ARLINGTON 2101 WILSON BLVD SUITE 100 VIENNA, VA 22201 703-224-6000
TYSONS 8133 LEESBURG PIKE SUITE 800 VIENNA, VA 22182 703-564-4000
VIENNA 144 CHURCH ST NW VIENNA, VA 22180 703-564-4000