Canaries and Coal Mines Weekender April 29, 2023
It’s better to debate a question without settling it than to settle a question without debating it. Joseph Joubert
G
ood morning and welcome to the Weekender for Saturday, April 29,
2023. The Standard and Poor’s 500 index was higher by 0.9% last week amid a deluge of earnings and economic data. Earnings were more robust than expected, while the economic data was weak. S&P 500 Index Levels (Source: Bloomberg) 4,200
4,169
4,175
4,169 4,137
4,150 4,125
4,135
4,109
4,100 4,077 4,075
4,072 4,056
4,050 4,025 4,000 3,975
3,970
3,950 3,925 3,900
Jan Feb Mar Apr 4 23 3
5
6 10 11 12 13 14 17 18 19 20 21 24 25 26 27 28
Strong earnings, especially from technology names, diluted the stagflation narrative that has been forming since the beginning of the year. However, economic data showing slower growth and higher inflation propped up the stagflation narrative, a bit. Credit standards remain tight while the slow drip, drip, drip of bank failures continues pushing deposits out of the banking system, magnifying the attention paid to regional banks and tightening lending standards accross the board. Economic data points increasingly support a stagflation narrative while corporate earnings suggest the consumer, which accounts for 70% of economic growth, remains potent. Weekender (Canaries and Coal Mines)
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