Issuu

Housing Needs Assessment City of Kawartha Lakes

Table of contents Preface

Funding Requirement Purpose

1. Methodology

2. Community Profile and Trends 10 3. Household Profiles and Economic Characteristics 4. Priority Groups

5. Housing Profile

6. Projected Housing Needs and Next Steps

7. Use of Housing Needs Assessments in Long-Term Planning

Annex A: Relevant Links for Developing Housing Needs Projections 97 Data and Analysis 97 Reports & Publications Annex B: Glossary 98

Preface Canada’s Housing Plan and Budget 2024 both signaled the Government of Canada’s intent to use Housing Needs Assessments (HNAs) as a key tool in its evidence-based long-term approach to addressing housing needs across the country. This includes the renewal of the Canada Community-Building Fund and the previously announced permanent transit funding. As the federal government strives to become a more informed investor, evidence-based tools that provide a clear assessment of local needs and gaps will be required to inform decision making. HNAs will help all levels of government understand the local housing needs of communities - how they may relate to infrastructure priorities - by providing the data necessary to determine what kind of housing needs to be built and where. The intent is to promote systematic planning of infrastructure that takes into consideration current and future housing needs. Funding Requirement Under the Housing Accelerator Fund, the Government of Canada currently requires funding recipients to complete an HNA by year 3 of the program, if one has not already been completed within two years of the 2022 federal budget announcement (April 7, 2022). Going forward, HNAs will be required for: • • •

Communities with a population of 30,000 and over receiving funding through the Canada Community-Building Fund; Communities with a population of 30,000 and over receiving funding through permanent transit funding; and, Future federal infrastructure funding applicants as required.

Once an HNA has been completed as a federal program requirement, a community will not be required to complete a new one for other Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada programs, other than to update it every five years. Purpose When done properly and regularly, an HNA will allow a community to answer fundamental questions such as: • •

Where does the greatest housing need exist in our community? How can we set meaningful housing targets and measure progress to support the right kind of housing for all residents?

•

How much housing, which size and at what price point do we need to ensure that all current and future households can live in suitable, adequate and affordable housing?

HNAs will allow all levels of government (federal, provincial/territorial and municipal) to use this evidence base to inform their investments in enabling and supportive infrastructure as well as guide their policy and regulatory decision-making. HNAs as a tool can help communities plan for and build housing more effectively to address the needs of their residents and instill transparency and accountability across the board. This HNA template has been informed by best practices from jurisdictions across Canada, consultations with experts, and engagements with provinces and territories. These include the City of Vancouver’s Housing Needs Report and the City of Edmonton’s Affordable Housing Needs Assessment (for the affordable housing side of needs assessments), as well as the Housing Research Collaborative at the University of British Columbia which brought together a national network of researchers and experts to develop the Housing Assessment Resource Tool (HART). The HART project provides formatted data from Statistics Canada on key housing indices such as core housing need for a wide variety of jurisdictions and geographic levels. Based on these best practices, this guidance document includes the following necessary information, explained in more detail below. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

Development and use of Housing Needs Assessments Community profiles and trends Household profiles and economic characteristics Priority groups Housing profiles Projected housing needs and next steps

Communities completing an HNA as a requirement for federal infrastructure programming will be expected to complete all sections outlined in this template. Communities may use a previously completed HNA if an updated version is available; however, communities would be expected to address any gaps related to any of the sections of the guidance document – both qualitative and quantitative – between their existing HNA and this federal template. Additional details about the timelines for completion and submission of HNAs will be provided with specific infrastructure funding programs (e.g. Canada Community-Building Fund). While responding to the written questions, please use as much space as required.

1. Methodology In this section, applicants should outline the research methodology used to inform the completion of the assessment, where the methodology is derived from, any assumptions used, and any necessary justification. While different assessments may incorporate unique methodological elements or considerations depending on context, the following methods should generally be outlined: • •

Quantitative research such as economic data, population and household forecasts; and, Qualitative research such as interviews, policy analysis and stakeholder engagement.

Both qualitative and quantitative aspects of this guidance document are equally important. Communities will be required to engage with key stakeholders in the housing sector, including non-profit housing providers, developers, and public entities, as well as those with specific lived experiences, to develop a comprehensive Housing Needs Assessment (HNA). This section should include what forms of engagement were conducted, with whom, how learnings were incorporated into or informed the HNA’s findings, and what engagement opportunities may exist to share findings with the community. To the extent possible, publicly available data from the following sources will be prepopulated to facilitate automated completion of the quantitative components of the assessments: • • • • • • •

Statistics Canada Census Data CMHC Housing Market Information Portal Statistics Canada Housing Statistics Dashboard CMHC Demographic Projections: Housing Market Insights, June 2022 CMHC Proximity Measures Database Housing Assessment Resource Tool Dashboard Canadian Housing Evidence Collaborative – Housing Intelligence Platform

In addition to this data, communities are required to incorporate internal and non-public facing, non-confidential data, into their HNAs in order to more fully capture local contexts and realities as needed. Data fields highlighted in yellow identify where municipalities will have to source the data. If this data is unavailable at the time of completion of the first HNA, communities are expected to collect these data points for future iterations. Other fields will be pre4

populated. Fields marked with an asterisk (*) indicate data points which are unavailable from the source or suppressed due to low counts. Please provide data from the latest census except where otherwise indicated. 1.1 Please provide an overview of the methodology and assumptions used to develop this Housing Needs Assessment, using the guidelines above. This should include both quantitative and qualitative methods. Please also identify the publicly available data sources used to complete this assessment beyond the sources listed above, if applicable. The Housing Needs Assessment has been prepared based on quantitative data from sources including Statistics Canada Census, CMHC databases, and other online sources as identified through this Housing Needs Assessment. City of Kawartha Lakes policies relied upon to provide context and data, where appropriate, include the recently completed Growth Management Strategy (2023), the Housing and Homelessness Assessment (in progress), Official Plan, Rural Zoning By-law, and other City data. Engagement conducted through the GMS and Housing and Homelessness Assessment was used to inform and provide context to this Housing Needs Assessment. Sources include: City of Kawartha Lakes Official Plan City of Kawartha Lakes Rural Zoning By-law City of Kawartha Lakes Growth Management Strategy City of Kawartha Lakes Housing and Homelessness Assessment City of Kawartha Lakes Housing Needs Review City of Kawartha Lakes Community Profile Statistics Canada Information

This Housing Needs Assessment (HNA) combines both quantitative and qualitative approaches to assess current and projected housing needs in the City of Kawartha Lakes. The analysis identifies housing pressures along the full continuum, focusing on deeply affordable and supportive housing needs. The methodological approach used in this HNA is tailored to the unique characteristics of the City of Kawartha Lakes. Quantitative sources such as Census data and CMHC 5

projections provide a reliable baseline but do not fully capture the housing realities of a geographically large and predominantly rural municipality. Many forms of housing instability, such as hidden homelessness, informal rentals, and encampments, are not well represented in administrative datasets. Incorporating qualitative engagement with people with lived experience, local service providers, and private developers was critical to ensure these realities were represented. This combination of methods strengthens the analysis by pairing measurable indicators with community-grounded insights, resulting in a more accurate and locally meaningful picture of housing needs in Kawartha Lakes. The results of this analysis provide an evidence base that is valuable not only for the HNA but also for informing broader planning, policy, and investment decisions across the City. Quantitative Methods The quantitative analysis draws from publicly available data sources including:      

Statistics Canada Census (2006, 2016, 2021) CMHC Rental Market Survey CMHC Core Housing Need data Ontario Ministry of Finance population projections Local social housing waitlist and By-Name List data City of Kawartha Lakes building permit and development activity reports

The assessment includes core housing need analysis, affordability gap calculations by tenure and income group, rental supply trends, household growth projections, and housing market indicators such as rent, ownership cost, and vacancy rates. Income thresholds are benchmarked using Area Median Income (AMI) and social assistance shelter allowances. Modelled affordability scenarios use standard assumptions of 30% of gross income as the affordability threshold. Qualitative Methods Qualitative insights were collected through three main sources:    

A large-scale community engagement process involving over 60 interviews with people with lived and living experience of housing insecurity and homelessness. 20 consultations with local service providers and frontline staff across housing, health, and social services. 6 stakeholder interviews with private developers, real estate agents, a homebuilder association, and a real estate board. Internal strategy planning workshops with City and KLH Housing Corporation staff.

These insights contextualize the quantitative data and provide grounded understanding of local housing development opportunities and challenges, system performance, service gaps, stigma, and lived realities that are not captured in administrative datasets. 6

Transcripts were coded thematically to identify recurring challenges across different population groups and geographies. Additional Sources Beyond standard datasets, the assessment incorporates:   

Waitlist and homelessness-serving system data System performance metrics Observational and anecdotal evidence from direct community engagement (e.g. encampment locations, informal rentals, eviction patterns)

Together, these methods provide a comprehensive understanding of both the measurable housing needs and the experiential dimensions of housing instability in the region. 1.2 Please provide an overview of the methodology and assumptions used to engage with stakeholder groups, e.g. non-profit housing organizations, in the development of this Housing Needs Assessment. This should include qualitative and quantitative methods. Please provide a description of who was engaged, the type of engagement that took place, and the nature of the engagement (e.g. interviews, consultations). As part of the Housing and Homelessness Assessment, the City conducted virtual and in person interviews with 59 community partners, interviews with 65 people at risk or experiencing homelessness, and released a survey via the online platform “Jump In” that was completed by 241 people. The Housing Needs Assessment was informed by an extensive engagement process with stakeholders across the housing and homelessness system in Kawartha Lakes. The approach was qualitative in nature, supplemented by contextual data and observational insights shared by frontline providers. Who Was Engaged Stakeholders included:         

Non-profit and supportive housing providers Shelter staff and outreach Mental health and addiction service providers Health system partners Social services staff KLH Housing Corporation staff Staff from the City of Kawartha Lakes People with lived and living experience of housing instability General public, through an open-access housing survey

   

For-profit development companies Real estate agents and board Homebuilders’ association Consulting firms supporting the development application process.

Engagement Methods Engagement took place through:     

One-on-one interviews with stakeholders, frontline, staff and managers across key sectors Group consultation sessions, both virtual and in-person, facilitated as part of the broader strategy development process Workshops with municipal staff to test assumptions, validate findings, and review implications for system planning Lived experience interviews, conducted separately but used in parallel to triangulate stakeholder insights A community housing survey, which received several hundred responses and captured public perceptions of affordability, housing challenges, and potential solutions

These engagements focused on capturing both operational realities (e.g. pressures on housing supply, market demand for housing, challenges to housing development, and bottlenecks in service delivery) and experiential knowledge (e.g. how policy and system gaps are experienced by clients and providers). Stakeholders were asked about trends they were observing, challenges in delivering services, gaps in available housing and supports, and priorities for change. Nature of Engagement Engagement was relational, iterative, and designed to elicit practical insight. Rather than formal surveys or public meetings, the process prioritized small-group and individual formats to encourage candid input. Interviews were conducted by consultants as well as experienced facilitators familiar with local service environments, and anonymized themes were synthesized into the final needs assessment. While not intended as a statistically representative sample, the input gathered reflects a wide cross-section of those directly involved in or impacted by housing and homelessness systems in the region.

1.3 Please provide an overview of the methodology and assumptions used to conduct engagement with the priority groups (identified in Section 4) in the development of this Housing Needs Assessment. This should include qualitative and quantitative methods. Please provide a description of who was engaged, the type of engagement that took place, and the nature of the engagement (e.g. interviews, consultations). If a private individual has been engaged, please anonymize and remove any identifying features from the narrative. As part of the Housing and Homelessness Assessment, the City held interviews with people at risk or experiencing homelessness. Other priority groups may be engaged as part of the assessment’s development. The City has focused our housing and homelessness assessment on those experiencing or at risk of homelessness. However, in our community we have learned through our homelessness point-in-time counts that those identifying as indigenous are over-represented in the homelessness population. Through our work with the homelessness by-name list (BNL) people experiencing homelessness often have mental health and substance use challenges, they may have diagnosed or undiagnosed developmental disabilities and can experience physical health and mobility challenges. Further consultation would be required in the future to intentionally gather additional feedback from other priority groups. This Housing Needs Assessment included direct engagement with people from several priority populations, including people experiencing homelessness, individuals with physical or mental health needs, youth, seniors, racialized and newcomer communities, people with disabilities, women and gender-diverse individuals facing violence, and people with very low incomes—including those on Ontario Works (OW) or Ontario Disability Support Program (ODSP). Who Was Engaged Engagement focused on individuals who:       

Were currently or recently experiencing homelessness or housing loss Were living in shelters, tents, trailers, or informal/unsafe housing Had been evicted, renovicted, or pushed out of housing due to discrimination or poverty Had complex needs related to mental health, substance use, or disability Were single parents or women navigating unsafe or violent relationships Were working or on assistance but unable to find affordable housing Were seniors at risk of homelessness or unable to age in place

Engagement Methods Priority populations were engaged through:  

One-to-one interviews, conducted in community settings and through service provider referral Open-ended responses collected through the public housing survey

Nature of Engagement Engagement was relational and trauma-informed. Participants were invited to share their experiences confidentially and anonymously. No identifying details were collected. The interviews focused on what people had experienced, what had pushed them into housing crisis, and what might have helped them stabilize sooner. Additional Private Sector Engagement In addition to the engagement outlined above, supplemental interviews with other housing stakeholders in the private sector were undertaken to provide a broader spectrum of responses regarding housing and housing affordability. As noted in subsection 1.2, this included for-profit development companies, real estate agents, a real estate board, a homebuilder’s association, and consulting firms supporting the development application process. These stakeholder groups were engaged through one-on-one interviews to prompt more candid responses regarding their perceived opportunities and challenges to providing sufficient attainable and affordable housing in the City. More specifically, these stakeholders were asked questions regarding the state of housing in Kawartha Lakes, focusing on changes in demand, supply, affordability, the types of housing residents seek, and whether those needs are being met. They also ask about barriers and opportunities for expanding supply, the roles of stakeholders, and potential innovative housing solutions that could be applied locally. These interviews are not intended as a statistically representative sample; the input gathered reflects a crosssection of those directly involved in housing development and delivery in the City.

2. Community Profile and Trends In this section, communities are expected to tell their housing story through the lenses of their community and household profiles using both qualitative and quantitative data. Communities may structure this information in different ways, including by providing past benchmarks, present figures, future projections, and current growth rates at a local, regional and provincial level.

2.1 Please detail the existing municipal housing policy and regulatory context, such as approved housing strategies, action plans and policies within Official Community Plans. The City has numerous approved, in development, and being updated housing-related policies. A few critical foundational documents can be found below: 1.

Official Plan

Growth Management Strategy (2025)

Housing and Homelessness Assessment (In Progress)

Rural Zoning By-law Consolidation (Under Appeal), Zoning By-laws

Minister’s Zoning Orders

In April of 2025, the City completed the first consolidation of the City of Kawartha Lakes Official Plan and Schedules. Originally passed in 2012, the Official Plan was under appeal until 2024. Numerous Official Plan Amendments took place during this time. The consolidated Official Plan, with all appeals resolved and the incorporation of Official Plan Amendments, will reduce inquiries and provide clarity surrounding land use policies. The City will begin the development of a new Official Plan in the coming years. The City completed a Growth Management Strategy (GMS) in the first quarter of 2025 after three years of development. The GMS provides an assessment of future growth, population projections, and a technical analysis of urban land needs to the year 2051. The GMS will aid the City in planning for future growth and inform and guide decisions within the Official Plan. As an extension of this work, the current technical analysis refines the GMS forecasts and land needs through updated headship-rate household projections, detailed tenure and income modelling, and further assessment of housing requirements by unit type and bedroom mix. This builds on the GMS foundation to provide more detailed inputs for ongoing needs assessments and implementation studies. The Housing and Homelessness Assessment is an ongoing project which aims to identify common challenges in finding and keeping housing, barriers to affordability, stability, and fairness, and establishing community driven ideas to enhance housing policy. The Assessment has completed consultation with community partners, the general public, and those at risk of experiencing homelessness. It has also established baseline statistical information and began to develop projections. This Housing Needs Assessment directly supports the City of Kawartha Lakes Strategic Plan (2024 to 2027). The Strategic Plan identifies An Exceptional Quality of Life as a priority area, emphasizing the need to increase affordable and attainable housing, 11

streamline residential approvals, and ensure a full continuum of housing types. By providing a clear, evidence-based analysis of current and projected housing needs, this Assessment helps the City operationalize its Strategic Plan priorities. In particular, the HNA addresses affordability gaps, identifies priority populations, and outlines where housing supply does not align with community need. These insights will inform decisionmaking across municipal departments and partners, enabling coordinated action to improve housing stability, prevent homelessness, and create a balanced housing system. In this way, the HNA is a practical tool to advance the Strategic Plan’s vision of a thriving, inclusive, and resilient community. The City of Kawartha Lakes resulted from the amalgamation of Victoria County in 2001 comprising of the Town of Lindsay, the villages of Bobcaygeon, Fenelon Falls, Omemee, Sturgeon Point and Woodville, and the Townships of Bexley, Carden, Dalton, Eldon, Emily, Fenelon, Manvers, Mariposa, Ops, Somerville and Verulam and the United Townships of Laxton, Digby and Longford. The City has been using the Zoning By-laws which existed in the smaller municipalities prior to the City’s amalgamation to this day. On May 21, 2024, Council passed the Rural Zoning By-law (RZBL) which consolidated 14 of the existing Zoning By-laws. The RZBL will add consistency to land use planning across the rural parts of the City and provide a better user experience. The Rural Zoning By-law is currently under appeal. The Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing issued three Minister’s Zoning Orders (MZO) in the City of Kawartha Lakes, one each year from 2020 to 2022. All three are located in Lindsay. In 2023, there were 17,000 units in the applications process of which the MZO’s accounted for more than 10,000 units. The City of Kawartha Lakes is the consolidated Service Manager for both the City of Kawartha Lakes and the County of Haliburton. As Service Manager, the City holds legislated responsibility under the Housing Services Act, 2011 to plan, fund, and oversee housing and homelessness services across the full continuum—from emergency shelters to supportive housing and rent-geared-to-income units. This role is supported by several core policy instruments: 1. City of Kawartha Lakes Strategic Plan (2024–2027) This high-level corporate strategy sets direction for all municipal departments. Under the priority area An Exceptional Quality of Life, the Plan commits to increasing affordable and attainable housing, streamlining residential approvals, and supporting a full continuum of housing types—including purpose-built rentals. It also emphasizes the importance of prevention programs and supports that help residents remain housed and access the services they need. 2. 10-Year Housing and Homelessness Plan (2019–2029) As required by provincial legislation, the Service Manager maintains a long-term 12

Housing and Homelessness Plan. This plan outlines the region’s strategic goals and actions to address housing need, expand affordable supply, and prevent and reduce homelessness. It is expected to be updated in the coming years, in part at the direction of the Ontario government. 3. Municipal Housing Pledge As part of the Province’s Housing Supply Action Plan, the City submitted a Municipal Housing Pledge outlining how it intends to enable new housing supply through land use planning, approvals, and partnerships. While the pledge aligns with broader provincial housing targets, it does not replace the Service Manager’s focus on deeply affordable and supportive housing. 4. Deeply Affordable and Supportive Housing Strategy (forthcoming, 2025) This strategy is being developed in parallel with the Housing Needs Assessment. It responds directly to the City’s role as Service Manager and focuses on the parts of the housing system the private market will not deliver: deeply affordable and supportive housing for residents with very low incomes, complex needs, or no access to stable housing. The strategy sets a clear direction for the next five years. It defines how municipal tools—land, planning, investment, partnerships—should be used to enable housing that meets urgent local need. It also outlines how roles across the City, KLH Housing Corporation, and community partners will be structured and coordinated to deliver that housing effectively. It includes:     

A framework for aligning internal systems (planning, finance, infrastructure) to move projects from concept to occupancy A defined governance model to drive delivery, track progress, and stay accountable across departments and agencies A costed pipeline of priority projects and investment needs, tied to income-level gaps and projected demand A long-range financial model to plan for capital and operating costs, recognizing that rents will not cover the cost of delivery A clear case for senior government investment, backed by modelling, needs data, and ready-to-launch projects

This strategy also acts as a bridge between policy and implementation. It sharpens the focus of the 10-Year Housing and Homelessness Plan, connects directly to the City’s Strategic Plan and Municipal Housing Pledge, and positions Kawartha Lakes to secure and deploy investment where it will have the greatest impact: preventing housing loss, reducing homelessness, and ensuring low-income residents have a place to live and the support to stay housed. 13

These policy instruments are particularly significant in Kawartha Lakes because they must balance a growing urban population with a wide rural geography where infrastructure capacity is limited. Linking housing policy to servicing realities ensures that growth strategies remain both achievable and aligned with the Strategic Plan’s commitment to a full continuum of housing types. 2.2 Community Profile

2.2.1 Population Characteristic

Data

Value

2016

75,423

2021

79,247

Total

3,824

Percentage

5.1%

Average

47.4

Median

51.6

0 - 14 years

10,450

15 - 64 years

46,355

65+ years

22,355

Non-movers

70,035

Non-migrants

2,495

Migrants

4,065

Total Population (Number)

Population Growth (Number)

Age (Years)

Age Distribution

Mobility

2.2.2 Demographic Information Characteristic

Data

Value

Immigrants

Total

6,100

Non-Immigrants

Total

70,930

Recent Immigrants (2016-2021)

Total

215

Interprovincial migrants (2016-2021)

Total

515

Indigenous Identity

Total

2,210

2.3 How have population changes in your community as illustrated by the above data impacted your housing market? Based on the above data, it would appear that population growth has been steady and manageable in the City of Kawartha Lakes. It would also appear that the building of new homes between 2016 and 2021 has kept pace with population growth. Kawartha Lakes is experiencing steady population growth, with projections showing an increase of nearly 49,000 people by 2051 under the high growth scenario—bringing the total population to approximately 130,000. This represents a significant shift from historical trends and will have major implications for the local housing market. Interview insights show that much of this growth was accelerated by COVID-19, as households from Toronto and the GTA sought larger properties and full-time relocation to cottages in areas like Lindsay and Fenelon Falls. This migration drove up local prices, strained available rental stock, and shifted market dynamics more rapidly than previous growth patterns predicted. This growth is already being felt. While housing construction is occurring, most new supply has been concentrated in the ownership market. Between 2001 and 2022, 93% of new residential completions in Kawartha Lakes were for ownership. Purpose-built rental accounted for just 2%, and no new co-operative housing units were added during that period. This trend is especially important in Kawartha Lakes, where rental supply has historically been limited and ownership has dominated new construction. As a result, population growth driven by migration from higher-cost regions has raised prices and displaced lower-income households who rely on scarce rental options. The lack of tenure diversity directly undermines affordability and challenges the City’s ability to retain younger residents, essential workers, and seniors seeking to downsize. 15

The mismatch between population growth and the types of housing being built has led to a growing affordability gap—especially for low-income renters, older adults, and people on fixed incomes. As population increases and market rents rise, more residents are priced out of the private rental market altogether. Vacancy remains low, and the share of affordable units is shrinking. According to CMHC data, median rent in Kawartha Lakes rose by 53% between 2014 and 2023. The pressure is compounded by demographic change. Kawartha Lakes has an aging population, yet many older residents face limited opportunities to downsize because smaller homes or condominiums are priced close to, or sometimes higher than, their current properties. This reduces turnover in the existing housing stock, limiting availability for younger families and intensifying demand for purpose-built alternatives. Interviews highlighted that housing demand is closely tied to the availability of retail, grocery, and service amenities. In recent projects, residents stressed that the absence of shops, health services, and recreation options undermines the livability of new subdivisions. Without adequate amenities, new developments risk becoming car dependent and less attractive to diverse households, particularly seniors and young families. Integrating housing growth with service and retail planning is essential to support complete communities. The City’s Growth Management Strategy (2025) identifies that while Lindsay and Omemee have sufficient land supply within their existing boundaries, both Bobcaygeon and Fenelon Falls will require expansion to accommodate future residential demand. This reflects how growth is not just intensifying in core areas—it is also putting pressure on smaller communities and rural settlements where infrastructure and services may not be equipped to meet housing needs at scale. Interviews reinforced that these pressures are not only about land availability but also about servicing constraints. In several communities, outdated sewer and water systems, floodplain limitations, and shortages in hydro capacity have stalled projects. Even where land is designated for growth, the lack of infrastructure upgrades (such as expanded sewage treatment in Lindsay or water tower improvements in Fenelon Falls) creates bottlenecks that delay housing delivery and increase costs for both municipalities and developers. This reinforces the need for housing policies that explicitly integrate infrastructure planning with affordability objectives to ensure growth does not bypass the populations most in need. In short, population growth has intensified structural issues in the housing market:   

Demand is rising faster than deeply affordable or supportive housing can be delivered. Market supply is not aligned with the needs of very low-income households. Smaller communities are beginning to experience capacity strain.

These pressures reinforce the need for targeted interventions—particularly public investment in non-market housing—and for growth management approaches that incorporate affordability, not just unit count.

3. Household Profiles and Economic Characteristics This section should provide a general overview of income, housing and economic characteristics of the community being studied. Understanding this data will make it easier to observe the incidence of housing need among different socio-economic groups within the community. Income categories could be used for this analysis and can be completed in accordance with the HART methodology and CMHC data. Area Median Household Income (AMHI) can be used as the primary basis for determining income brackets (as a percentage of AMHI) and corresponding housing cost ceilings. This section should also outline the percentage of households that currently fall into each of the income categories previously established. This will allow a better understanding of how municipalities compare to Canadian averages, and the proportion of households that fall into each household income category. This will also allow for a better understanding of drop-off levels between total households and the number of units required to meet anticipated need or demand in each category. Housing tenures allow for the comparison of renter and owner-occupied households experiences and is important for understanding a community’s housing context. Using a stratified, income-based approach to assessing current housing needs can enable communities to target new housing development in a broader and more inclusive and equitable way, resulting in housing that can respond to specific households in core housing need. This is shown in the next section. 3.1 Household Profiles 3.1.1 Household Income and Profile Characteristic

Data

Value

2016

31,106

2021

32,708

Total number of households

3.1.1 Household Income and Profile Characteristic

Data

Value

Average

$100,200

Median

$82,000

Tenant Household Income (Canadian dollars per year, Average only available at CMA or CA Level) - Data from [CMA or CA name] Median

$57,100

Average Owner household income (Canadian dollars per year, only available at CMA or CA Level) - Data from [CMA or CA name] Median

$109,100

Average household size (Number of members)

Total

2.4

Total

32,705

1 person

8,375

2 persons

13,715

3 persons

4,580

4 persons

3,750

5 or more persons

2,285

Total

5,620

Percentage

17.2%

Total

27,090

Percentage

82.8%

Household income (Canadian dollars per year)

Breakdown of household by size (Number of households)

$44,800

$90,000

Tenant households (Number of households)

Owner households (Number of households)

3.1.1 Household Income and Profile Characteristic

Data

Value

Percentage of tenant households in subsidized housing Percentage

17.8%

Households within 800m of a higher-order/high frequency transit stop or station (#)

Total

0 (no higher-order transit in CKL)

Total

3,320

Percentage

13.7%

Number of one-parent families in which the parent is a woman+

Total

2,480

Number of one-parent families in which the parent is a man+

Total

845

Very Low (up to 20% below Area Median Household Income (AMHI)

950

Low (21% – 50% AMHI)

5,470

Moderate (51 – 80% AMHI)

6,065

Median (81% - 120% AMHI)

6,975

High (>121% AMHI)

12,335

Number of one-parent families

Number of households by Income Category

3.2 Please provide context to the data above to situate it within your municipality. For example, is there a significant number of one-parent families? Are owner household incomes far surpassing tenant household incomes? Stakeholder interviews highlighted that household income levels in Kawartha Lakes remain well below those of nearby regions such as Durham, which sharpens the affordability gap for both renters and owners. Developers and realtors noted that rising development charges and construction costs are being passed on to buyers, while renters face increasing rents with limited non-market alternatives. According to these stakeholders, the result is that many households are either priced out of ownership altogether or financially stretched to remain in the market. This income disparity is particularly significant in Kawartha Lakes, where rental options are already limited. The gap between owner and tenant incomes magnifies affordability challenges for renters, especially single parents and seniors on fixed incomes. As a result, many low-income households are increasingly excluded from the local housing market and forced into precarious arrangements. Interviews also underscored the way tenure patterns and housing sizes are evolving. Ownership remains the dominant form of new supply, yet purpose-built rental continues to lag despite a strong rental market. Several stakeholders pointed to builders introducing secondary suites and smaller formats – such as semi-detached units and townhomes – as ways to broaden affordability. At the same time, interviewees emphasized that downsizing options for older adults remain limited, with condominium and smaller-unit prices often close to single-detached homes, reducing mobility in the housing market. Stakeholders drew a distinction between “affordable” housing, typically subsidized or deeply below-market, and “attainable” housing, which refers to smaller, modestly priced ownership units accessible to working households. Developers noted that municipal policies often focus heavily on affordability while overlooking the market demand for attainable units that allow younger families or first-time buyers to enter ownership. This distinction reflects a growing recognition that a diverse supply is needed, including attainable homes that relieve pressure on subsidized housing demand. Municipal planning frameworks may need to explicitly account for this segment to ensure balance across the housing continuum. In addition to these topics discussed by stakeholders, the following can be observed.



The City of Kawartha Lakes has a small number of one parent families at 13.7%.



The number of one parent families increases among families in subsidized housing is 35.8%. The average total income for these individuals was $22,400

which is substantially below the average renter and owner household income. Owner household incomes are almost double those of tenants and nearly five times that of individuals in subsidized housing. 

The City is the second largest municipality in Ontario by land area. Given the large land area, many different populations exist. Homeowners in the City are generally older and have higher incomes. However, seniors aged sixty-five years and older now represent the highest proportion in core housing need, almost thirty percent (source Housing and Homelessness Assessment). Tenants, given the lower income levels, will have greater challenges due to a lack of affordability.



Single mother led households, refugee claimant led households, and households with the head over 85 represent the highest percentages in core housing need.



Older adults aged 65 and older, represent a significant proportion (24%) of individuals living in subsidized housing in Kawartha Lakes with an additional 10% aged 60 to 64.

Some of the above data was sourced from: 3.2: Source: Community Data Program. Target Group Profile of The Population Living In Subsidized Housing, Census, 2021.

3.3 Suppression of household formation (e.g., younger people living with their parents due to affordability pressures) and housing demand (e.g., “driving until you qualify”) can both indicate strained local housing market conditions. Please provide any data or information that speaks to how suppression of the formation of new households and suppression of housing demand has impacted your community since 2016, and how projected formation patterns are expected to be impacted over the next 5 to 10 years. Please indicate methods used to determine expected household formation, such as calculating headship rates broken down by specific age estimate impacts.1

3.3.1 Household Formation 2016 HH* Head Age Category

2021

Pop.

Headship Rate HHs* (%)

Pop.

Headship Rate HHs* (%)

15 to 24

7,875

5.3%

420

7,080

5.4%

380

25 to 34

7,085

39%

2,760

8,340

34.4%

2,870

35 to 44

7,125

49.3%

3,510

8,115

48.9%

3,965

45 to 54

10,695

51.4%

5,500

8,765

52.1%

4,565

55 to 64

13,675

55.4%

7,580

14,065

56.1%

7,885

65 to 74

11,130

58.3%

6,490

12,945

56.7%

7,340

75 to 84

5,530

61.9%

3,425

6,810

61.2%

4,165

We recognize that some municipalities may not have this data available at the time of completion, but encourage them to do their best in addressing this question. Municipalities will be expected to build this expertise in subsequent iterations of their Housing Needs Assessments.

3.3.1 Household Formation 2016 HH* Head Age Category

85 plus

2021

Pop.

Headship Rate HHs* (%)

Pop.

Headship Rate HHs* (%)

2,410

58.9%

2,600

59%

1,420

1,535

*Household/Households

3.3.2 Household suppression 2006 Actual

2021 Actual

2021 Household Suppression

HH* Head Age Category

Pop.

HHs*

Pop.

HHs*

Headship Rate (%, 2006)

Potential HHs* Suppressed (2021) HHs* (2021)

15 to 24

8,965

530

7,080

380

5.9%

418.6

38.6

25 to 34

6,455

2,710

8,340

2,870

42%

3,501.4

631.4

35 to 44

9,815

5,000

8,115

3,965

50.9%

4,134

169

45 to 54

12,285

6,495

8,765

4,565

52.9%

4,634

55 to 64

10,620

6,000

14,065

7,885

56.5%

7,946.3

61.3

65 to 74

7,550

4,355

12,945

7,340

57.7%

7,467

127

75 plus

6,985

4,420

9,410

5,700

63.3%

5,954.5

254.5

Total *Household/Households

1,350.7

Single mother led households, refugee claimant led households, and households with the head over 85 represent the largest portion of priority populations in the City of Kawartha Lakes that are in core housing need. According to 2021 Census data, 83.7% of all housing units in the City are single detached. Apartments in a building that has fewer than 5 storeys comes in second at 6.8%. Given the significant supply of single detached homes, a greater diversity in other housing types is needed to allow for greater affordability for those who are single, young, or lower income in the housing market. According to the City’s 2025 Growth Management Strategy, it is expected that a significant supply of single detached homes will continue to be built. Typically, those buying single detached homes are expected to be younger couples looking to start families. Those anticipated to “drive until they qualify” (i.e. move to Kawartha Lakes for less expensive housing) will primarily come from Durham Region and/or established families looking to purchase more suitable homes. Stakeholder interviews suggested that affordability pressures have slowed the pace of new household formation in Kawartha Lakes. Realtors noted that younger buyers are increasingly unable to enter the ownership market due to high prices, rising interest rates, and lower local wages compared to regions like Durham. This income gap means many younger adults remain in parental homes or delay independent living. As noted already, interviewees also pointed to the phenomenon of “driving until you qualify,” where households priced out of the GTA sought more affordable options in Kawartha Lakes during COVID-19, further inflating demand locally and crowding out lower-income residents. While this in-migration has cooled somewhat, stakeholders emphasized that the affordability gap has persisted, continuing to suppress new household formation among local residents and likely to constrain formation patterns over the next 5 to 10 years. The suppression of new household formation has important implications for Kawartha Lakes. Younger adults are delaying independence, which affects workforce attraction and retention, while in-migrants from higher-cost regions intensify competition for limited housing. This dynamic reinforces intergenerational inequities and limits the City’s ability to retain youth and young families.

Percentage of Households in Core Housing Need by Priority Population, 2021, Kawartha Lakes CY (CSD, ON) Single mother-led HH Women-led HH Indigenous HH Visible minority HH Black-led HH New migrant-led HH Refugee claimant-led HH HH head under 25 HH head over 65 HH head over 85 HH with physical activity limitation HH with cognitive, mental, or… Transgender or Non-binary HH Community (all HH) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Percentage of Priority Population Household The graph depicts the core housing need percentages amongst the priority populations. The greatest core housing need is represented in dark blue, which for Kawartha Lakes is Refugee claimant-led households. This information is provided from the Housing Assessment Resource Tools (HART) Housing Needs Assessment Tool at the University of British Columbia. 3.4 Economic Conditions

3.4.1 Economy and Labour Force Characteristic

Data

Value

Number of workers in the Labour Force

Total

36,495

Construction

4,830

Health care and social 4,735 assistance

Number of workers by industry (Top 10 only)

Retail trade

4,465

Manufacturing

2,595

Educational services

2,265

Public administration

2,245

Accommodation and food services

1,845

Administrative and support, waste management and remediation services

1,790

Professional, scientific 1,780 and technical services Other services (except 1,600 public administration) Unemployment rate and Unemployment rate participation rate (Percent) Participation rate All classes of workers (Number)

Total

11.2% 54.7% 35,505

3.4.1 Economy and Labour Force Characteristic

Data

Value

Employees (Number)

Total

29,520

Permanent position (Number)

Total

25,355

Temporary position (Number)

Total

4,165

Fixed term (1 year or more, Number)

Total

995

Casual, seasonal or short-term position (less than 1 year, Number)

Total

3,175

Self-employed (Number)

Total

5,980

Within census subdivision

11,085

To different census Number of commuters subdivision by commuting destination To different census division To another province/territory Car, truck or van Number of commuters by main mode of Public transit commuting for the employed labour force with a usual place of Walked

9,550

45 24,645 170 795

3.4.1 Economy and Labour Force Characteristic

Data

Value

work or no fixed workplace address

Bicycle

Other method

470

3.5 How have labour conditions (e.g., prevalence of precarious employment, temporary or seasonal workforces, reliance on sectors such as natural resources, agriculture, tourism, etc.) in your community impacted housing supply and demand? Numerous economic sectors are prevalent in the City primarily due to its large geography. The two largest sectors by employment in the City are sales and service occupations and trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations. This is reflective of strong local economies in both tourism and agricultural sectors. Historic growth in the area fluctuated due to the economy shifting from resource extraction and agriculture to more tourism and service industry today. This variability in employment and economic gains has left visible signs in the age and diversity of housing stock available in Kawartha Lakes today. As per the 2025 Growth Management Strategy, it is not anticipated that the local economy will have a measurable influence on single detached dwelling supply in the City. Over 75% of all employees are either employed in full time permanent positions or are self-employed. It is anticipated that housing demand will continue to come from those working outside of the City, primarily in Durham Region and Peterborough County, or from retirees looking to move from larger cities. The structure of the local labour market is contributing directly to housing instability and unmet demand—particularly for low-income renters and working residents in nonstandard jobs. While the majority of employed residents in Kawartha Lakes hold permanent positions, there is still a substantial share of workers in temporary, seasonal, or self-employed roles. These less secure forms of employment are common in industries like construction, tourism, agriculture, and food services, which make up a large part of the local economy.

Service providers and people with lived experience described the day-to-day impacts of this precarity. Even those working full-time—or juggling two or three part-time jobs— often cannot afford housing. Many lack benefits or sick leave. Job loss, erratic hours, and unpredictable income were consistently cited as barriers to maintaining stable housing. This instability also makes it harder for these households to access housing in the first place. Landlords often require steady income, formal employment documentation, and high rent-to-income ratios that workers in seasonal or casual roles cannot meet—even if they’re working consistently. For those trying to exit homelessness or secure more stable housing, irregular income is a major barrier to eligibility and placement. The result is a local housing system where market access is structurally misaligned with labour realities. Demand exists—but is often concentrated among residents who don’t meet conventional income criteria or who experience frequent income gaps. This reinforces the need for non-market housing options that are accessible to workers with irregular or precarious employment, including transitional, supportive, and deeply affordable rental units. Stakeholder interviews emphasized that the combination of lower local wages and higher housing costs has further constrained access to the private market. Realtors and developers noted that younger residents often cannot qualify for mortgages or meet landlord screening criteria, reinforcing household formation suppression. At the same time, stakeholders observed that “driving until you qualify” during COVID-19 drew in higher-income in-migrants from the GTA, who could outbid local workers and accelerate price increases. Interviewees also highlighted that the mismatch between precarious employment and housing costs is felt most acutely by those in tourism, agriculture, and service industries. Developers pointed out that many of these workers are functionally excluded from ownership opportunities, while employers in these sectors struggle to recruit and retain staff due to the lack of affordable rental options close to jobs. This tension between the local labour market structure and housing availability was consistently raised as a barrier to sustainable economic growth. 3.6 Households in Core Housing Need A household is considered to be in core housing need if it meets two criteria: 1. 2.

A household is below one or more of the national adequacy, suitability and affordability standards; and, The household would have to spend 30% or more of its before-tax household income to access local housing that meets all three standards.

Housing is considered to be affordable when housing costs less than 30% of before-tax household income. Housing is considered to be suitable when there are enough bedrooms for the size and make-up of the household. Housing is considered to be adequate when it is not in need of major repairs. Determining the percentage of core housing need would facilitate comparison with forecasts of population growth and household formation, in turn enabling more accurate projection of anticipated housing needs broken down by different factors such as income, household size and priority population, as explained below. It is important to note that official measures of those in core housing need exclude key groups, including those experiencing homelessness, students living independently of their guardians, people living in congregate housing, and migrant farm workers. This means that core housing need figures may underestimate overall housing need. Due to this, communities should also strive to include as much information as possible about these groups in the Priority Groups section below, in order to provide a comprehensive picture of who is affected by core housing need. Please use the following section to insert the following Housing Assessment Resource Tools Data Tables (Housing Needs Assessment Tool | Housing Assessment Resource Project) Income Categories and Affordable Shelter Costs: Kawartha Lakes CY (CSD, ON) Income Category

% of Total Households

Annual Household Income

Affordable Shelter Cost (2020 CAD$)

$82,000

$2,050

Very Low Income (20% or under of AMHI)

2.09%

<= $16,400

<= $410

Low Income (21% to 50% of AMHI)

17.01%

$16,400 - $41,000

$410 - $1,025

Moderate Income (51% to 80% of AMHI)

19.31%

$41,000 - $65,600

$1,025 - $1,640

Median Income (81% to 120% of AMHI)

22.23%

$65,600 - $98,400

$1,640 - $2,460

High Income (121% and more of AMHI)

39.36%

>= $98,401

>= $2,461

Percentage of Households in Core Housing Need, by Income Category and Household Size: 3.6.2 Percentage of Households (HH) in Core Housing Need (CHN), by Income Category and Household Size

Income Category

Affordable Shelter Cost (Canadian Dollars per Month)

1 Person HH

2 Person HH

3 Person HH

4 Person HH

5+ Person HH

Very Low Income (20% or less of AMHI)

<= $410

89.8%

10.2%

Low Income (21% to 50% of AMHI)

$410 - $1,025

61%

29.4%

6.2%

2.5%

Moderate Income (51% to 80% of AMHI)

$1,025 - $1,640 0%

34.7%

40.3%

16.7%

8.3%

Median Income (81% to 120% $1,640 - $2,460 * of AMHI)

High Income (121% or more >= $2,461 of AMHI)

Income Category (Max. affordable shelter costs)

Percentage of Households in Core Housing Need, by Income Category and Household Size, 2021 Kawartha Lakes CY (CSD, ON) Very Low Income ($410) Low Income ($1025) 1 Person Moderate Income ($1640)

2 Person 3 Person

Median Income ($2460)

4 Person 5+ Person

High Income (>$2460) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Percentage of Households

2021 Affordable Housing Deficit: 3.6.3 2021 Affordable Housing Deficit by Household (HH)

Income Category

Affordable Shelter Cost (Canadian Dollars per Month)

1 Person HH

2 Person HH

3 Person HH

4 Person HH

5+ Person HH

Very Low Income (20% or less of AMHI)

<= $410

395

3.6.3 2021 Affordable Housing Deficit by Household (HH)

Income Category

Affordable Shelter Cost (Canadian Dollars per Month)

1 Person HH

2 Person HH

3 Person HH

4 Person HH

5+ Person HH

Low Income (21% to 50% of AMHI)

$410 - $1,025

1,485

715

150

Moderate Income (51% to 80% of AMHI)

$1,025 - $1,640 0

125

145

Median Income (81% to 120% $1,640 - $2,460 0 of AMHI)

High Income (121% or more >= $2,461 of AMHI)

Total

1,875

885

295

125

3.6.4 Households in Core Housing Need

Characteristic

Data

Value

Affordability – Owner and tenant households spending 30% or more on shelter costs (# and %)

Total

6,080

Percentage

19.1%

Affordability – Owner and tenant households spending 30% or more on shelter costs and in core need (# and %)

Total

2,970

Percentage

9.5%

3.6.4 Households in Core Housing Need Characteristic

Data

Value

Affordability – Tenant Total households spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs Percentage (# and %)

2,260

Affordability – Tenant Total households spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs Percentage and in core need (# and %)

1,410

Affordability – Owner Total households spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs Percentage (# and %)

3,825

Affordability – Owner Total households spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs Percentage and in core need (# and %)

1,555

Adequacy – Owner and tenant Total households in dwellings requiring major repair (# and Percentage %)

2,255

Adequacy – Owner and tenant Total households in dwellings requiring major repair and in Percentage core need (# and %)

520

Adequacy – Tenant households Total in dwellings requiring major repairs (# and %) Percentage

585

Adequacy – Tenant households Total in dwellings requiring major repairs and in core need (# and Percentage %)

245

40.7%

4.5%

14.6%

6.9%

1.7%

10.4%

0.8%

3.6.4 Households in Core Housing Need Characteristic

Data

Value

Adequacy – Owner households Total in dwellings requiring major repairs (# and %) Percentage

1,670

Adequacy – Owner households Total in dwellings requiring major repairs and in core need (# and Percentage %)

275

Suitability – Owner and tenant Total households in unsuitable dwellings (# and %) Percentage

875

Suitability – Owner and tenant Total households in unsuitable dwellings and in core need (# Percentage and %)

145

Suitability – Tenant households Total in unsuitable dwellings (# and %) Percentage

360

Suitability – Tenant households Total in unsuitable dwellings and in core need (# and %) Percentage

105

Suitability – Owner households Total in unsuitable dwellings (# and %) Percentage

515

Suitability – Owner households Total in unsuitable dwellings and in core need (# and %) Percentage

6.2%

0.9%

2.7%

0.5%

6.4%

0.3%

1.9%

0.1%

3.6.4 Households in Core Housing Need Characteristic

Data

Value

Total households in core housing need

Total

3,245

Percentage of tenant households in core housing need

Percentage

28.3%

Percentage of owner households in core housing need

Percentage

6.6%

3.7 Please provide any other available data or information that may further expand on, illustrate or contextualize the data provided above. Stakeholder interviews reinforced these quantitative findings by pointing to structural pressures in the rental market. Developers acknowledged that purpose-built rental construction has been limited in Kawartha Lakes, with most new supply focused on ownership. Realtors noted that rental demand is strong, but available units are often investor-owned condominiums or secondary suites that command high rents and offer little long-term security. Interviewees also emphasized that older rental stock is under pressure from demolition and conversion, particularly in core areas where redevelopment potential is highest. This loss of older, lower-cost rentals reduces the supply of units affordable to households on fixed or modest incomes, intensifying shelter cost burdens for seniors, young families, and seasonal workers alike. Further to these interviews, the following data and information is pulled from Community Data Program Target group profile of the population in households spending 30%+ and 50%+ of income on shelter costs, Census, 2021.



There are a large number of low-income households identified among those paying 30% and 50% or more of their income on shelter costs. Prevalence of low-income was identified at 41.8% for those paying 30% or more and 72.8% for those paying 50% or more of their income on shelter costs. The prevalence of low income is based on the Low-income measure, after tax (LIM-AT).



The unemployment rate is also higher among individuals with substantial shelter costs at 18.4% for those spending 30% or more and 19.2% for those spending

50% or more on shelter compared to 11.2% among the broader population of Kawartha Lakes. Older adults aged 65 and over, represent 28.7% of those spending 30% or more of their income on shelter and 26.4% of those spending 50% or more on shelter. Youth and young children are also represented in this population with 16.1% in households spending 30% or more on shelter costs and 10.4% in households spending 50% or more on shelter. Age Group

Households Spending 30% or more

Households Spending 50% or more

0 to 14 years

16.1%

10.4%

15 to 64 years

55.1%

63.1%

65 years and over

28.7%

26.4%

4. Priority Groups There are 12 groups that CMHC defines as priority populations for affordable homes: groups who face a proportionally far greater housing need than the general population. There is also a 13th group, women-led households and specifically single mothers, implied in the National Housing Strategy which targets 33% (with a minimum of 25%) of funding going to housing for women-led households. Priority population groups are: • • • • • • • • • • • 37

Women and children fleeing domestic violence Women-led households, especially single mothers Seniors 65+ Young adults aged 18-29 Indigenous Peoples Racialized people Recent immigrants, especially refugees LGBTQ2S+ People with physical health or mobility challenges People with developmental disabilities People dealing with mental health and addictions issues

• •

Veterans People experiencing homelessness

Census data does not disaggregate core housing need data by all priority populations, including veterans, individuals who identify as LGBTQ2S+, survivors of domestic violence, and individuals experiencing homelessness. Many households may have members in multiple priority categories which may also not be represented in the data. With these limitations in mind, information on housing need by priority population would be helpful for developing inclusive housing policies. 4.1 What information is available that reflects the housing need or challenges of priority populations in your community? If data is available, please report on the incidence of core housing need by CMHC priority population groups in your community. If no quantitative data is available, please use qualitative information to describe the need for these priority populations. Across Kawartha Lakes, housing need is heavily concentrated among groups identified as CMHC priority populations. While not all categories are captured in census data, local engagement provided clear insight into the lived experiences behind these disparities. Women, Single Mothers, and Survivors of Violence Of the 3,320 one-parent families in Kawartha Lakes, nearly 75% are led by women. Among single mothers, 22.2% are in core housing need, rising to 41.3% for those who rent. Many are managing on a single income and face significant barriers to re-entering the rental market after separation or abuse. Service providers reported that women fleeing violence are often unable to find safe, appropriate housing and may return to unsafe situations due to lack of viable alternatives. Others become homeless after leaving a relationship, particularly when no transitional housing is available. Seniors and People with Disabilities Seniors (65+) account for just over 25% of the population but 31.7% of households in core housing need. Many own their homes but can no longer afford to maintain them or live independently. Others are renters struggling to find units that are both affordable and accessible. Among households with physical or mobility limitations, 8.6% are in core housing need. For those with cognitive or mental health-related disabilities, the rate is 7.4%. Providers highlighted a growing number of older adults and people with disabilities who are unhoused or living in housing that does not meet even basic accessibility standards. Stakeholder interviews underscored that downsizing options for older adults are extremely limited in Kawartha Lakes. Realtors noted that condominiums and smaller units are often priced close to detached homes, offering little financial incentive for 38

seniors to move. Service providers added that many older adults therefore remain in larger, aging homes that they struggle to maintain, while others compete in a very tight rental market with few accessible units. Youth and LGBTQ2S+ Individuals Youth aged 15–29 represent around 18% of the local population, and households led by individuals under 25 have a 16.2% core housing need rate. For LGBTQ2S+ and nonbinary residents, the rate is 11.9%. Young people facing family rejection, particularly related to gender identity or sexual orientation, are overrepresented in hidden homelessness. Many are not visible in shelter data but cycle through unstable arrangements, often without support. Frontline staff reported that these individuals are more likely to disengage from the system entirely due to previous negative experiences with institutional supports. People with Mental Health and Substance Use Challenges Among individuals experiencing homelessness, 71% report mental health conditions and 68% report substance use challenges (2021 Point-in-Time Count). These issues often compound each other and create sustained barriers to housing access and retention. Providers noted that even when housing is available, many individuals are discharged or evicted due to behavioral issues linked to untreated illness or addiction. Others struggle with social isolation, which can undermine housing stability without adequate support. Racialized and Newcomer Residents While racialized residents make up only about 5% of the local population, disparities are evident. Black renters in Kawartha Lakes have a core housing need rate of 12.9%. Indigenous renters in the low-income bracket experience core housing need at a rate of 71.4%. Refugee claimant households show the highest overall rate at 24.2%. Although small in number, racialized and newcomer residents frequently face discriminatory screening by landlords and limited access to decent housing. This results in overrepresentation in poor-quality units or being excluded from the market altogether. People Experiencing Homelessness Between 450 and 600 people are estimated to be experiencing homelessness during the course of one year. This includes those in tents, vehicles, motels, and unsafe rentals. Most are local residents who have been priced out of the private market or who lost housing due to health issues, discrimination, or family breakdown. Even after being housed, many remain vulnerable to eviction or displacement due to lack of support or landlord discretion. The system is often reactive, with few proactive or preventative pathways.

4.1.1 Core Housing Need (CHN) by CMHC Priority Groups Characteristic

All households experiencing CHN

Data

Value

Total (Households)

3,240

Percentage (of all households)

10.3%

Not available CHN in households with Total (Households) women and/or children fleeing domestic Percentage (of priority Not available violence group) Total (Households)

1,915

CHN in households led by women Percentage (of priority 14.4% group) Total (Households)

445

CHN in households led by single mothers Percentage (of priority 22.2% group) Total (Households) 1,415 CHN in households led by senior(s) aged 65Percentage (of priority 84 11.2% group) Total (Households)

305

CHN in households led by senior(s) aged 85+ Percentage (of priority 20.6% group) Total (Households) 160 CHN in households led by young adult(s) aged Percentage (of priority 18-29 11% group)

4.1.1 Core Housing Need (CHN) by CMHC Priority Groups Characteristic

Data

Value

Total (Households)

145

CHN in Indigenous-led households Percentage (of priority 11.7% group) Total (Households) CHN in visible minorityled households Percentage (of priority group) Total (Households) CHN in Black-led households

CHN in new-immigrantled households Percentage (of priority group) Total (Households)

0 0% 40

Percentage (of priority 24.2% group) Total (Households)

CHN in households with a same-sex couple Percentage (of priority group) Total (Households) CHN in households with Transgender member(s) Percentage (of priority group)

9.1%

Percentage (of priority 12.9% group) Total (Households)

CHN in refugee-led households

115

* * 25

11.9%

4.1.1 Core Housing Need (CHN) by CMHC Priority Groups Characteristic

Data

Value

Total (Households)

Not available

CHN in households with Non-Binary member(s) Percentage (of priority group)

Not available

905 CHN in households with Total (Households) member(s) with physical health and/or Percentage (of priority 8.6% mobility challenges group) 385 CHN in households with Total (Households) member(s) with developmental Percentage (of priority 7.4% disabilities group) 210 CHN in households with Total (Households) member(s) dealing with mental health and Percentage (of priority 6.3% addictions issues group) Total (Households) CHN in households with Veteran member(s) Percentage (of priority group)

CHN in people experiencing homelessness

75 8.5%

Total (people)

Percentage (of priority group)

100%

At this time the City of Kawartha Lakes does not have a robust method to understand the core housing need of households with non-binary members or households with women and/or children fleeing domestic violence. While quantitative data on core housing need for households with women and/or children fleeing domestic violence and 42

for households with non-binary members is unavailable at the municipal level, Kawartha Lakes has taken steps to respond to these priority groups. In 2023, federal and municipal investment supported the creation of six transitional apartments dedicated to women and children fleeing violence, adding longer-term stability beyond emergency shelter options.2 In addition, the City’s 10-Year Housing & Homelessness Plan identifies vulnerable residents as a priority, with strategies that include supportive housing and wraparound services.3 These actions illustrate the municipality’s commitment to addressing housing need among groups more likely to experience precarity, even where detailed quantitative data is not available. As of May 31, 2025 there were 89 households in the City of Kawartha Lakes experiencing homelessness and by the nature of their housing situation, in core housing need. Qualitative and quantitative data indicate the need for greater housing supports for those with lower and moderate incomes in the City of Kawartha Lakes. Draft results from the Housing and Homelessness Assessment indicate almost two thirds of homes with very low income are in core housing needs while almost half of low income. As shown in the graphic below, the Housing and Homelessness Assessment finds almost two-thirds of very-low income households in Kawartha Lakes are in core housing need. Even low and moderate-income households (up to eighty percent of AMHI) face significant challenges finding suitable, affordable housing.

CMHC – New housing options for women and children in Kawartha Lakes: https://www.cmhcschl.gc.ca/media-newsroom/news-releases/2023/new-housing-options-women-children-kawartha-lakes 2

City of Kawartha Lakes – 10-Year Housing & Homelessness Plan: https://www.kawarthalakes.ca/en/living-here/10-year-housing-and-homelessness-plan.aspx 3

Households in CHN (%)

Percentage of households in core housing need by income category, Kawartha Lakes, 2021 80.0%

66.4%

60.0%

45.6%

40.0% 20.0%

6.1%

0.0% Very Low Low Income Moderate Median Income (21% to Income Income (20% or 50% of (51% to (81% to under AMHI) AMHI) 80% of 120% of AMHI) AMHI) Income Category

High Income (121% and more of AMHI)

As shown in the graphic below regarding ‘aging into insecurity,’ the Housing and Homelessness Assessment finds seniors aged sixty-five and older now represent the highest proportion in core housing need – over thirty percent. Adults aged twenty-five to fifty-four also face mounting pressure, while children and youth remain vulnerable to the effects of instability early in life.

Core housing need by age and number of people, Kawartha Lakes, 2021

Percentage (%)

Source: Statistics Canada

40% 30% 20%

17.60%

16.80%

10%

4.70%

0% 0 to 17 years

31.70%

29.20%

18 to 24 years

25 to 54 years Age

55 to 64 years

65 years and over

4.2 Please describe the incidence and severity of homelessness in your community, including an estimated number of individuals and/or families experiencing homelessness (hidden, visible, chronic, living in encampments, and episodic). If available, please include recent Point-in-Time counts. The following information is from the Housing and Homelessness Assessment. Throughout 2024, 349 individuals from 241 households were identified as experiencing active homelessness in the City of Kawartha Lakes. From these households, 145 (60.2%) were identified as experiencing chronic homelessness demonstrating a cycle of prolonged occurrences of homelessness among this group. Close to half (43.1%) of these households were evaluated as high acuity given their scores on the homelessness assessment tool used in the coordinated access system. An estimated 83 encampments were identified across the City of Kawartha Lakes in 2024. The majority of individuals experiencing homelessness in 2024 were single adults, while families represented 16.5% of this population in Kawartha Lakes and youth were underrepresented in available data at 5%. Homelessness in Kawartha Lakes is widespread, complex, and increasingly visible. The most recent enumeration (2021) recorded 185 individuals experiencing homelessness in Kawartha Lakes. This figure reflects those engaged with the system at a single point in time and is considered a baseline only. System modeling completed as part of the Housing Needs Assessment projected that approximately 450 unique individuals experience homelessness over the course of a full year in Kawartha Lakes. This annualized estimate includes both chronic and episodic homelessness and reflects the broader demand on shelters, outreach, and supportive housing. Chronic homelessness is a growing concern. In the 2021 Point-in-Time Count, 54.8% of respondents had been homeless for six months or more in the previous year. A further 21% were experiencing episodic homelessness, having cycled in and out of housing three or more times over that period. The severity of need is also high:     

74.7% reported a mental health condition 67.9% reported substance use challenges 53.8% reported physical limitations 53.3% had a medical condition 26.2% identified as Indigenous

These figures reflect a deeply vulnerable population, with high levels of co-occurring challenges that require more than just shelter access. Geography is also a significant factor. Kawartha Lakes is a large and primarily rural municipality, which contributes to high rates of hidden homelessness. Individuals and families often stay in trailers, vehicles, or overcrowded rural dwellings—settings that are unlikely to appear in system data. Outreach teams and service providers consistently report encountering people in informal, unsafe, or invisible arrangements, particularly outside of Lindsay and other service hubs. Encampments are also present in multiple areas, including visible clusters in and around Lindsay. People living in encampments often report barriers to shelter entry, including lack of privacy, inflexible rules, inability to bring partners or pets, or past negative experiences. 4.3 Please describe local factors that are believed to contribute to homelessness in your community (e.g., the closing of a mental health facility, high numbers of refugee claimants, etc.). Data from the By Name List indicates the population experiencing homelessness in Kawartha Lakes present with more complex, co-occurring conditions that may impact housing stability. The Housing Needs Review in 2023 also shows that the cost of housing, availability of units, mental health, and substance use were major barriers to housing for service users. Homelessness in Kawartha Lakes is shaped by a combination of structural pressures and local conditions. The most commonly cited factors relate to affordability, service access, and rural geography—but many individuals also described personal and systemic circumstances that made it difficult to stay housed or find housing after a crisis. Evictions and Displacement Eviction—both formal and informal—was one of the most frequently reported pathways into homelessness. Some people lost housing after a landlord sold the property, renovated, or raised the rent beyond what they could afford. Others were pushed out of informal arrangements, including trailers, shared units, or motels, with little or no notice. In some cases, tenants described being asked to leave without a formal lease ever being in place. Unaffordable and Inaccessible Housing People spoke of spending months or even years searching for housing they could afford. When options were available, they were often unsafe, poorly maintained, or 46

already taken by the time applicants were able to respond. Social assistance rates were consistently flagged as out of step with local housing costs, leaving OW and ODSP recipients with no viable market options. Some remained in substandard or overcrowded units because the alternative was homelessness. In rural areas, housing options are especially limited, and many people are isolated from services that could help. Discharge Without Housing Plans Several individuals described becoming homeless after leaving hospitals, detox programs, correctional facilities, or foster care. In many of these cases, there was no stable housing available upon discharge—and little coordination between systems to support a transition. These gaps were especially challenging for people with serious health conditions or without strong support networks. Gaps in Support Services Even when people found housing, staying housed was often difficult without consistent support. Some lost housing after a relapse, a mental health crisis, or a conflict with a landlord that could have been resolved with early intervention. Providers noted that people who don’t meet the criteria for high-acuity programs often struggle to access anything at all—especially if they’ve been banned from services or missed appointments in the past. Geographic and Transportation Barriers In a large, mostly rural area like Kawartha Lakes, access to services is a major challenge. Without transportation, many residents are cut off from housing supports, health care, and basic necessities. Some live in areas where there are no landlords accepting new tenants, or no rentals at all. For those who do secure housing in isolated locations, the lack of connection to services makes it hard to stay stable. Complex Mental Health and Substance Use Many individuals described struggling with both mental illness and substance use, often at the same time. These challenges made it harder to navigate the housing system, maintain tenancies, or engage with services that weren’t equipped to meet their needs. In several cases, people had been evicted due to behaviors related to untreated conditions—or had chosen to leave housing that felt unsafe or destabilizing. Stigma and Discrimination Stigma was also a factor. Some people felt judged or dismissed by service providers, landlords, or neighbours. Others described being turned away from rentals based on how they looked, how they spoke, or the source of their income. These experiences often led to disengagement from the very systems meant to help.

4.4 Please identify temporary and emergency relief resources available for individuals experiencing homelessness in your community (e.g., number of shelter beds, resource centres, number of transitional beds available). If possible, please indicate whether capacity levels are commensurate with need. There will be an opportunity to provide information on local permanent solutions and resources further down. There is one emergency shelter in the City of Kawartha Lakes with 30 shelter beds available. In 2024, there were 7276 bed nights available and of these available beds nights 7276 (100%) were used. A “bed-night” is defined as a shelter bed or space accessible for a single night. The emergency shelter operated at capacity in 2024. The need for these emergency resources does exceed available resources in Kawartha Lakes. Where shelter beds are not available, households will be temporarily placed in hotels. One example of this is the Out of the Cold program which operates during winter months to provide additional spaces for individuals experiencing homelessness when temperatures are below -10 outside. As the consolidated service manager for Kawartha Lakes and Haliburton, the City is responsible for overseeing emergency and temporary housing resources across a geographically large and primarily rural region. Current capacity is limited and does not reflect the level of need identified through service data, lived experience, or recent modeling. Emergency Shelter There are 30 shelter beds available in the service area, primarily located in Lindsay. These beds frequently operate at or near full capacity, especially during colder months. Residents in rural areas often face additional barriers due to distance and lack of transportation. Not all individuals seeking shelter are able to access a space when they need it. Transitional Housing There are 5 transitional housing spaces available. These units are intended to support people moving out of homelessness who need additional time and support before securing permanent housing. However, given the number of individuals experiencing housing instability each year, this transitional stock is limited. Supportive Housing There are 24 units of supportive housing in the system. These are permanent housing options paired with on-site or connected supports. Currently, supply is not sufficient to meet demand—particularly for individuals facing ongoing health, mental health, or substance use challenges. This creates system pressure downstream, including longer shelter stays and repeat episodes of homelessness. 48

4.5 Some groups, including students, those in congregate housing, and temporary foreign workers, may be excluded from publicly available core housing need data sources. Communities are encouraged to use this section to describe the housing needs of these respective populations to ensure that all groups are represented in their HNA. The City of Kawartha Lakes hosts Fleming College’s Frost Campus in Lindsay. Students live in either Fleming’s College Residence or find rental housing off-campus. There are not a large number of International Students in the City. Farms in the City may also employ temporary foreign workers to support agriculture. These workers may either stay on farms where they are working or find short term accommodations in the City.

5. Housing Profile 5.1 Key Trends in Housing Stock: This section should tell a story of housing changes over time in a community through trends in net change of affordable or below-market housing. This should be expressed through illustrations of net losses or net gains in affordable and non-market housing over the previous three census periods. 5.2 Please provide a brief history of how housing in the community has been shaped by forces such as employment growth and economic development, infrastructure, transportation, climate impacts, and migration. Please include any long-term housing challenges the community has faced:

5.2.1 Housing Units: Currently Occupied/Available Characteristic

Data

Value

Total private dwellings Total

32,705

Single-detached Breakdown by structural types of units Semi-detached (number of units) Row house

27,400 555 655

5.2.1 Housing Units: Currently Occupied/Available Characteristic

Data

Value

Apartment/flat in a duplex

840

Apartment in a building that has fewer than 5 2,220 storeys Apartment in a building that has 5 or more 730 storeys

Breakdown by size (number of units)

Breakdown by date built (number of units)

Other single attached

Movable dwelling

230

Total

32,705

No bedrooms

1 bedroom

2,395

2 bedrooms

7,355

3 bedrooms

13,540

4 or more bedrooms

9,350

Total

32,705

1960 or before

8,785

1961 to 1980

9,540

1981 to 1990

5,310

5.2.1 Housing Units: Currently Occupied/Available Characteristic

Rental vacancy rate (Percent)

Number of primary and secondary rental units

Number of short-term rental units

Data

Value

1991 to 2000

3,395

2001 to 2005

1,480

2006 to 2010

1,545

2011 to 2015

1,420

2016 to 2021

1,240

Total

Bachelor

1 bedroom

2 bedrooms

0.3%

3 bedrooms+

Primary

1,497

Secondary

4,053

Total

300

The City of Kawartha Lakes resulted from the amalgamation of the 13 townships and 6 incorporated communities in Victoria County in 2001. Due to the City’s diverse geography, the City historically developed as a collection of farm homes in rural areas, cottages fronting lakes, and single detached dwellings in hamlets and towns. Development was concentrated around transportation corridors such as waterways and railways. 51

Climate change, supportive infrastructure, outward migration from major urban centers, and investors competing with home buyers are creating affecting the housing market. Extreme weather events and flooding continue to require City resources while creating stress on the housing stock, particularly around the City’s lakes and rivers. Major investments are required to upgrade servicing and other supportive infrastructure for new housing to accommodate demand pressures. With projected increases in severe weather events impacting insurance rates, aging of existing housing stock increasing maintenance costs, and economic uncertainty, these compounding matters may continue to disproportionally affect the ability to afford accommodations (Insurance Bureau of Canada, ClimateData.ca, Canadian Climate Institute, Remax). Present day, the City is managing growth-related challenges. New housing construction is primarily being completed in greenfield areas. Within the built up areas, some properties are seeing redevelopment and there has been little uptake of additional residential units. Census data shows that seasonal dwellings make up approximately 16% of dwellings in the City as of 2021. The City’s 2025 GMS states that the City’s seasonal dwelling and population base is anticipated to grow only moderately, with 11,040 forecasted for 2051. Two Ministerial Zoning Orders for lands currently outside the Lindsay Settlement Area Boundary are anticipated to provide approximate 10,590 units by 2051. The City’s recently completed Growth Management Strategy (GMS) shows projections for future population and housing growth while providing a technical analysis of recommended boundary expansion in Bobcaygeon and Fenelon Falls. The Lindsay boundary will be required to expand to accommodate the lands subject to the abovenoted MZOs and the GMS finds no additional expansions are needed. The City continues to explore ways to encourage supply of affordable housing and rentals to meeting ongoing economic, demographic, and social demands. The Housing and Homelessness Assessment will help shape the future Housing and Homelessness Strategy. Population projections from the GMS are pictured below:

City of Kawartha Lakes Population and Housing Growth

Year

Mid 2011

Historical

Mid 2016

Mid 2021

Mid 2026

Mid 2031

Mid 2036

Mid 2041

Incremen Forecast tal

Mid 2046

Mid 2051 Mid 2011 Mid 2016

Populatio n (including Census undercou nt)[1]

Populatio n Excluding Census Undercou nt

75,030

Housing Units

Person Per Unit (P.P.U): Total Population/ Total Households

Singles & SemiDetach ed

Multiple Dwellings[2]

Apartments[3]

Other

Total Households

73,214

25,470

1,215

2,820

176

29,681

2.47

77,290

75,423

26,515

1,495

2,765

325

31,100

2.43

81,210

79,247

27,955

1,495

2,950

310

32,710

2.42

86,700

84,600

29,820

2,050

3,420

310

35,600

2.38

96,200

93,900

32,260

3,010

4,180

310

39,760

2.36

105,600

103,000

34,440

4,090

5,060

310

43,900

2.35

114,000

111,200

36,090

5,150

5,980

310

47,530

2.34

122,200

119,200

37,410

6,220

7,020

310

50,960

2.34

130,000

126,900

38,470

7,330

8,210

310

54,320

2.34

2,260

2,209

1,045

280

149

1,419

-55

Mid 2016 Mid 2021

3,920

3,824

1,440

Mid 2021 Mid 2026

5,490

5,353

1,865

555

470

Mid 2021 Mid 2031

14,990

14,653

4,305

1,515

1,230

Mid 2021 Mid 2036

24,390

23,753

6,485

2,595

2,110

Mid 2021 Mid 2041

32,790

31,953

8,135

3,655

3,030

Mid 2021 Mid 2046

40,990

39,953

9,455

4,725

4,070

Mid 2021 Mid 2051

48,790

47,653

10,515

5,835

5,260

[1]

Census undercount estimated at approximately 102.5%

[2]

includes townhouses and apartments in duplexes

[3]

Includes bachelor, 1-bedroom, 2-bedroom+ apartments

185

-15

1,610

2,890

7,050

11,190

14,820

18,250

21,610

Source: Historical growth from Statistics Canada Census data; forecast by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2024

The housing landscape in Kawartha Lakes has been shaped by the interplay of demographic shifts, infrastructure limitations, economic patterns, and geography. These forces have contributed to persistent affordability challenges and uneven access to housing—especially across the large, rural service area covered under the City’s role as consolidated Service Manager for Kawartha Lakes and Haliburton. Employment Growth and Economic Development Historically, the region’s economy has centred on agriculture, tourism, and manufacturing. In recent years, the City has focused on diversifying toward creative industries, innovation, and knowledge work. This economic transition has been accompanied by steady employment growth, concentrated in serviced areas such as Lindsay, Bobcaygeon, and Fenelon Falls. As jobs and investment have increased, so too has housing demand—particularly for rental and workforce housing near economic nodes. 54

Stakeholder interviews highlighted that income disparities between Kawartha Lakes and regions like Durham or the GTA cause ongoing affordability issues. Realtors and builders said local wages tied to tourism, agriculture, and service sectors aren't enough for current ownership or rental costs. Employers reported challenges in recruiting and keeping workers due to a lack of affordable rental housing near jobs. Infrastructure and Land Use Constraints Despite significant land availability, development is constrained by servicing limits. The Growth Management Strategy identifies water and wastewater capacity as a key bottleneck, particularly outside Lindsay. These infrastructure gaps have restricted the pace and location of new housing development and limited the feasibility of higherdensity or rental-focused projects. Interviewees repeatedly highlighted servicing capacity as the most significant barrier to new housing. Developers cited wastewater and water treatment bottlenecks in Lindsay, Fenelon Falls, and Bobcaygeon as delaying approvals and adding costs. Hydro infrastructure shortages, such as transformer availability, were also flagged as constraints during recent subdivision approvals. Short-Term Rentals and Second Homes Tourism and seasonal residency have long shaped the local housing system. A significant portion of the housing stock is made up of second homes or cottages, particularly around lakes and recreational areas. In recent years, more of these properties have been converted into short-term rentals—removing them from the longterm rental market and reducing housing availability in high-demand areas. This shift has also contributed to rising prices, especially in waterfront and recreational zones, and has made it harder for year-round residents to compete in the market. Interviewees also observed that some investor-owned units and seasonal cottages were converted into short-term rentals, particularly during the pandemic when tourism demand surged. This reduced long-term rental availability, concentrated price pressures in waterfront areas, and added volatility to local housing markets. While activity has cooled somewhat, stakeholders stressed that investor behaviour continues to shape affordability and access by diverting units away from permanent rental supply. Purpose-Built Rentals vs. Investor-Owned Units Developers consistently emphasized that purpose-built rental housing is not a focus of their business models, with most preferring to build ownership units and rely on individual investors to supply rental stock. This approach has created a rental market that is fragmented, high-cost, and vulnerable to investor preferences rather than community needs. While some investor-owned units are rented, others remain vacant or are priced beyond local affordability thresholds, limiting access for low- and moderate-income households. This dynamic underscores the importance of targeted 55

public investment and incentives to ensure stable, purpose-built rental options are added to the housing mix. Transportation and Rural Form Kawartha Lakes is a geographically dispersed municipality, with 24 communities spread across a rural landscape. Housing development has historically followed servicing boundaries and road access, resulting in a supply that is dominated by single-detached, car-dependent homes. Limited transit and transportation options have reinforced spatial inequities in housing access—particularly for residents without a private vehicle. Migration and Demographic Pressure Recent growth has been driven by urban out-migration—especially from the GTA—and by aging local residents seeking to downsize. The area’s relatively lower housing prices, natural amenities, and rural lifestyle appeal have attracted retirees, families, and remote workers. This has increased competition in the market and contributed to a shift from seasonal to permanent residency in many areas, further tightening the supply of affordable homes for local residents. Climate and Natural Environment Seasonal changes and climate impacts—including fluctuating lake levels, rising temperatures, and unpredictable weather—have also influenced development. Properties near water or in flood-prone areas face new pressures, while shorter winter seasons and warmer summers are shifting the pattern and intensity of seasonal housing use. These environmental factors will increasingly shape the suitability and resilience of new development. Persistent Challenges Across these trends, several long-term housing issues remain:      

A housing stock geared toward ownership and single-detached formats Pressure on older, lower-cost rental stock from demolition and redevelopment, reducing options for low-income tenants Minimal new rental or supportive housing development Ongoing affordability gaps for low- and moderate-income households Seasonal and tourism pressures reducing year-round housing availability Servicing and infrastructure constraints delaying project delivery

Taken together, these forces have created a housing system that has not kept pace with the community’s evolving needs. As the municipality prepares for significant population and employment growth over the next two decades, new strategies will be needed to ensure that housing supply is more responsive, inclusive, and sustainable.

5.3 In the last five years, how many affordable units for low and very lowincome households have been built, and how many have been lost? If data is not available, please describe how the loss of affordable housing units may have impacted your community. The following shows the number and net change of affordable rentals for Very Lowand Low-Income households(i.e. households earning less than fifty percent of area median household income (AMHI)). 5.3.1 Change in Units Affordable to Low-Income Households Characteristic

Data

Value

Affordable units built (number of units)

2016 to 2021

Change in number of affordable units built 2016 to 2021 before 2016 (number of units)

355

Change in number of affordable units (number of units)

375

2016 to 2021

The following table shows the number and net change of affordable rentals for Very Low-Income households (i.e. households earning less than twenty percent of area median household income). Kawartha Lakes CY (CSD, ON) Number of affordable rental units for very low-income households built between 2016 and 2021

Number of affordable rental units for very low-income households lost between 2016 and 2021*

-75

Net change in affordable rental units for very-low income households between 2016 and 2021

The following table shows the number and net change of affordable rentals for LowIncome households (i.e. households earning twenty to fifty percent of the area median household income). Kawartha Lakes CY (CSD, ON) Number of affordable rental units for low-income households built between 2016 and 2021

Number of affordable rental units for low-income households lost between 2016 and 2021*

-280

Net change in affordable rental units for low income households between 2016 and 2021

300

*Note: Due to differences in available responses used in the long-form census between 2016 and 2021 regarding period of construction, this estimate of units lost will double-count any units built between January 1, 2016 and May 10, 2016 (i.e. census day 2016). The 2016 long-form census uses the period "2011-2016" as an option for the dwelling's period of construction while the 2021 long-form census uses the periods "2011-2015," "2016-2020," and "2021" as the possible options.

The loss of affordable rental units deepens the housing challenges for those with the lowest incomes in our community. Low vacancy rates contribute to higher asking amounts for rent and especially with social assistance rates in the province remaining low, this contributes to added financial strain on households with lower incomes. Stakeholder interviews highlighted that the loss of affordable housing has had wideranging impacts in Kawartha Lakes. Interviewees noted that older rental stock is under pressure from demolition, fire code retrofits, and conversion to higher-cost ownership or short-term rentals. This has reduced the supply of naturally occurring affordable housing, forcing low-income renters into competition for a shrinking pool of units. 5.4 How have average rents changed over time in your community? What factors (economic, social, national, local, etc.) have influenced these changes? 5.4.1 Average Rent by Year Characteristic

Data

Value

2016

996

5.4.1 Average Rent by Year Characteristic

Data

Value

2017

1,006

2018

972

2019

1,114

2020

1,133

2021

1,030

2022

1,184

2023

1,431

2016-2017

2017-2018

-3.4%

2018-2019

14.6%

Change in Average Monthly Rent (percent, 2019-2020 by year)

1.7%

2020-2021

-9.1%

2021-2022

15%

2022-2023

20.9%

Average Monthly Rent (number, by year)

The City is not immune to the cost of living pressures seen elsewhere in Ontario over the last ten years. Rents from 2016 to 2023 have gradually increased over time. Low vacancy rates, province wide cost of living increases, and low rental supply have contributed to rental prices increasing. Those of lower socio-economic status continue to be hardest hit.

The following table shows the change in average rents between 2016 and 2023 of the average monthly rent for all primary rental units per CMHC’s Rental Market Survey (all occupied and vacant rental units). These values reflect data collected in October of each year. Kawartha Lakes CY (CSD, ON)

Avg Monthly Rent ($)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

$996

$1,006

$972

$1,114

$1,133

$1,030

$1,184

$1,431

The following chart shows the change in average monthly rent for the primary rental market (both occupied and vacant units) between years as a dollar amount.

300 200 100 0 -100

2022-2023

2021-2022

2020-2021

2019-2020

2018-2019

2017-2018

-200 2016-2017

Change in Average Monthly Rent ($)

Change in Average Monthly Rent ($) (2016-2023) Kawartha Lakes CY (CSD, ON)

Year The following table shows the annual change in monthly rent for primary rental units (both occupied and vacant units) both as dollar amount and as a percentage.

Kawartha Lakes CY (CSD, ON) 20162017

20172018

2018-2019

20192020

20202021

20212022

20222023

Change in Average Monthly Rent ($)

+$10.0

-$34.0

+$142.0

+$19.0

-$103.0

+$154.0

+$247.0

Percentage change in Average Monthly Rent (%)

+1.0%

-3.4%

+14.6%

+1.7%

-9.1%

+15.0%

+20.9%

5.5 How have vacancy rates changed over time? What factors have influenced this change? 5.5.1 Rental Vacancy Rate by Year Characteristic

Rental vacancy rate (percent, by year)

Data

Value

2016

0.3%

2017

0.7%

2018

1.4%

2019

1.3%

2020

2.4%

2021

2022

1.5%

2023

1.5%

Vacancy rates in the City have remained low for over 10 years. The Housing Needs Review conducted in 2023 estimated the vacancy rate in the City at 1.5%. This number continues to be lower than the national average and creates challenges for those seeking affordable rental housing. In 2022 and 2023, over 250 rental units began to be built. This will hopefully add much-needed rental housing supply over the coming years. While the overall vacancy rates across the City have remained low, a significant housing issue in Kawartha Lakes is the high rate of vacant residential units above commercial storefronts in the historic downtowns of Lindsay and Fenelon Falls. These apartments once provided affordable housing and supported downtown vitality, but current estimates suggest up to 20% remain empty. Restoring these units could improve affordability, strengthen downtown vibrancy, and stimulate the local economy. City staff identify the Ontario Building Code’s secondary egress requirement as a key barrier. Second exits are now required, unless the units have remained occupied and/or have not required major renovation. In many heritage buildings, adding a second exit is difficult: ground floor retail space prevents internal stairwells, and as the buildings are built to the lot line, external fire escapes are unfeasible. This challenge is common across Canada, and municipalities are exploring options to address the “second egress” barrier. Collaboration with the City’s Economic Development and Building Divisions will be essential to quantify vacancy, evaluate solutions, and pursue policy flexibility. Addressing the issue could unlock a supply of affordable rental units while advancing downtown revitalization and economic growth. The following table shows the vacancy rate among primary rental units per CMHC’s Rental Market Survey. These values reflect data collected in October of each year. Kawartha Lakes CY (CSD, ON) Change in Vacancy Rates between 2016 and 2023

Vacancy Rate (%)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

0.3%

0.7%

1.4%

1.3%

2.4%

n/a

1.5%

5.6 How have trends in core housing need changed over time between both tenant and owner-occupied households? 5.6.1 Core Housing Need by Year and Tenure Characteristic

Data

Value

2016

1,935

2021

1,705

Total Change

-230

Percent Change

-11.89%

2016

1,970

2021

1,540

Total Change

-430

Percent Change

-21.83%

Owner households in Core Housing Need (percentage)

2016

7.99%

2021

6.58%

Tenant households in Core Housing Need (percentage)

2016

39.36%

2021

28.33%

Owner households in Core Housing Need (number)

Tenant households in Core Housing Need (number)

Change in Core Housing Need (CHN) Over Time (2016-2021) by Tenure The following table shows the number of households in Core Housing Need (CHN) among owner-occupied and tenant-occupied households in 2016 and 2021. Please note that tenant-occupied includes both primary and secondary rental market households (Housing Needs Assessment Tool).

Kawartha Lakes CY (CSD, ON) Number of households in CHN

2016

2021

Change 2016-2021

Owner-occupied

1935

1705

-230

Renter-occupied

1970

1540

-430

We should be cautious with the 2016 to 2021 census data change in core housing need showing a decrease. One of the factors in core housing need is affordability. In 2021, at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, there were additional financial resources available for households that may have temporarily increased incomes during that time and in turn drove down core housing need. 5.7 Non-Market Housing

5.7.1 Current Non-Market Housing Units Characteristic

Data

Value

Number of housing units that are subsidized

Total

995

Number of housing units that are below market rent in the private market (can either be rent or income-based Total definition)

3810

Number of co-operative housing units

n/a (None exist)

Total

Number of other non-market housing units (permanent Total supportive, transitional, etc.)

Presently there are not any co-operative housing units connected to the community housing waiting list and RGI housing in Kawartha Lakes. There are 24 supportive/transitional units connected to our homelessness by-name list and our coordinated access system. 5.8 Please describe any other affordable and community housing options and needs/gaps currently in your community that are not captured in the table above. Examples can include: • • •

Are any of these affordable housing units accessible or specifically designed for seniors, including long-term care and assisted living? Does your municipality provide rent supplements or other assistance programs that deepen affordability for households? Is your community in need of supportive housing units with wrap-around supports, such as for those with disabilities?

Our municipality provides rent supplements to over 130 households in the area to assist with affordability challenges. There is an ongoing need for additional rent supplements in our community along with more supportive housing units. Many of the individuals experiencing homelessness in our community require supportive housing to assist them to become stable in their housing. Supportive Housing with Integrated Services There is a significant gap in supportive housing—particularly for individuals managing serious mental illness, substance use, or chronic health conditions. While some community housing providers offer informal support, most do not have the staffing, funding, or operating models to serve higher-acuity tenants. This limits housing stability for individuals leaving hospitals, shelters, or transitional care and contributes to recurring homelessness. Aging Housing Stock and Mismatch with Current Need Many of the buildings in the community housing portfolio were developed decades ago and are no longer well suited to current demand. Larger units are underused, while there is high need for smaller, accessible, and adaptable units—especially for older adults and single-person households. Support needs have also increased, but capital and operating resources have not kept pace. Interviewees also stressed that while the need for accessible, barrier-free housing is rising, most new construction is still focused on ownership products rather than supportive or rental options Limited Accessibility and Designated Seniors Housing There are few units specifically designed to support aging in place or to meet the needs 65

of people with physical disabilities. As the population ages, demand for accessible, barrier-free housing is expected to increase sharply. This includes both independent units and models with on-site supports or partnerships with health providers. Stakeholder interviews noted that many older adults remain in larger homes because downsizing options are not financially attractive. Interviewees emphasized that condominiums and smaller units are often priced close to detached homes, leaving seniors with little incentive to move. This reduces turnover in the existing stock while demand for smaller, affordable formats continues to grow. Limited Reach of Rent Supplement Programs The City does offer rent supplements, but these have not proven to be the most effective instrument for reaching residents with the lowest incomes. Deeply Affordable Housing Still Falls Short of Need There are 1,008 deeply affordable units in the system today. These are primarily rent-geared-to-income units within the community housing portfolio. While essential, this supply is not sufficient to meet the level of need among households on OW, ODSP, or low-wage employment. Waitlists remain long, turnover is limited, and most new development does not reach these income thresholds. Gaps in Prevention and Tenancy Support Much of the current housing system is oriented toward crisis response. Stakeholders consistently highlighted the need for stronger prevention infrastructure—eviction diversion, housing stabilization, tenancy support, and conflict resolution. Strengthening these services could help keep more people housed and reduce demand on the limited supply of affordable units. 5.9 Housing Trends 5.9.1 Housing Values Characteristic

Data

Median monthly shelter costs for rented Median dwellings (Canadian dollars)

Purpose-built rental prices by unit size

Value

1,100

Total

1,030

Bachelor

5.9.1 Housing Values Characteristic

Data

Value

(Average, Canadian dollars)

1 bedroom

916

2 bedrooms

1,227

3 bedrooms+

Total

958

Bachelor

1 bedroom

900

2 bedrooms

3 bedrooms+

Average

$742,432

Median

$660,000

Average

$742,432

Bachelor

$358,374

1 bedroom

$498,725

Purpose-built rental prices by unit size (Median, Canadian dollars per month)

Sale prices (Canadian dollars)

Sale prices by unit size 2 bedrooms (Average, Canadian dollars)

3 bedrooms+

5.9.1 Housing Values Characteristic

Data

Value 5 Beds: Avg $923,860 | 6–10 Beds: Avg $1,282,320 |

Median

$660,000

Bachelor

$242,000

1 bedrooms

$404,950

2 bedrooms

Sale prices by unit size (Median, Canadian dollars)

3 bedrooms+

5.9.2 Housing Units: Change in Housing Stock Characteristic

Demolished – breakdown by tenure

Data

Value

Tenant Owner

701 (2023) – total, we do not have this data based on tenure

Total

272 (2023)

Single Completed – Overall and breakdown by Semi-detached structural type (annual, number of structures) Row

Completed – Breakdown by tenure (annual, number of structures)

2 (2023) 29 (2023)

Apartment

1 (2023)

Tenant

Owner

Condo

Coop

Total

351

Single Starts – Overall and breakdown by structural Semi-detached type (2021, number of structures) Row Apartment

240 (2023)

351 * * *

5.9.2 Housing Units: Change in Housing Stock Characteristic

Data

Value

Tenant

Starts – Breakdown by Owner tenure (2021, number of structures) Condo

Housing starts (all)

351 *

Coop

Total

431 (2023)

Two-bedroom Average sale prices were derived from Zolo, while other Average and Median sale information is based on data provided by the Central Lakes Association of Realtors. Information about demolished buildings provided by the City’s Chief Building Official.

6. Projected Housing Needs and Next Steps This section aims to answer the question, how much and what type of housing is needed to meet the needs of the population over the next 10 years? How will this Housing Needs Assessment (HNA) be meaningfully used in planning and investment decisions? This section projects population trends from the previous 10 years, dividing by income category and target housing costs while considering migration trends. An example of a benchmarked projection from Edmonton’s Affordable Housing Needs Assessment is provided below.

Household Growth Projection 2016- 2026. Source: Edmonton Affordable Housing Needs Assessment – August 2022 HNAs should be able to convey through their data-driven narrative how many housing units are needed by income category, household size and dwelling type over the next 10 years. In completing this section, communities must carefully consider their past growth trends and future demographic projections, including recent immigration patterns, aging population dynamics, and economic trends. Furthermore, it is also crucial for communities to consider any pre-existing housing shortages, as evidenced by indicators such as recent trends in rental vacancy rates, growth in prices/rents, the number of households in core housing need, and the aging of their current housing stock. 6.1 Projection Methodology Guidelines There are several projection methodologies that can be used to project housing demand, including the HART housing needs projection here. The federal government recommends using the HART methodology as a reference point, with additional considerations and data points to improve the validity of the methodology. These considerations, including economic data integration and supply capacity and gaps as well as steps for calculating the methodology are noted below. Provinces and territories, in consultation with their municipalities/communities, are invited to use a methodology that fits their regional circumstances, ensuring the assumptions that inform their preferred methodology are also clearly explained. The federal government will review the HNAs as a requirement for its various funding programs and assess the methodology and assumptions that inform it for their validity and robustness. If needed, further engagements can take place to better align the preferred methodology with the federal government’s expectations.

In employing a projection methodology, jurisdictions may find the following list of key considerations and steps useful. The following approach involves first projecting the population into the future, then projecting household formation from headship rates, and then demand for housing by tenure, dwelling type and size, family type and income groups. Following the Population Projection, Household Projection and Housing Demand Projection steps, a table is presented of the key considerations for each step in the process. Step 1: Population Projection •

Conceptually the projected population is calculated as the survived population + births + projected net migrants. An example of an accepted method to calculate population projection is the Cohort-Component population projection method.

Step 2: Household Projection •

•

Project family and non-family households separately by multiplying the projected population by age group in a given year with projected headship rates (household formation) by age group in a given year. – A headship rate represents the probability that a member of a given age group will head (maintain) a household of a given type (family or nonfamily). Historical headship rates are calculated as the ratio of household heads in an age group to the population of that age group. – Total headship rates can be determined by adding family and non-family headship rates together for a given age group and year. An increase in the total headship of any particular age group means that overall a higher proportion of that group heads households than previously. The converse holds true for a decrease in the total headship rate. Thus, the total rate is an overall indication of the propensity to form households in a particular age group. Project both family and non-family households by household type (composition), including couples without children, couples with children, lone parents, multiplefamily households, one-person households, and other non-family households. This can be achieved by multiplying the projected number of households in a particular age group by the projected household type proportions for that age group.

–

•

Historical proportions for family households are the ratio of the number of family households of a given type in an age group to the total number of family households headed by that age group. – Historical proportions for non-family households are the ratio of the number of non-family households of a given type in an age group to the total number of non-family households headed by that age group. Project net household formation according to family and non-family household types by calculating the difference between projected households in successive years.

Step 3: Housing Demand (Need) Projection •

•

Project the number of owner households within a particular age range and household type by multiplying projected household by type (family and nonfamily) by projected ownership rates. Project the number renter households by calculating the difference between projected households and the number of projected owner households. – Historical ownership or renter rates are the ratio of the number of owning/ or renter households of a given type and age of head to the total number of households (owners and renters combined) of that type and age of head. Project dwelling type (single, semi, row, apartment) by multiplying projected age-specific renter and owner dwelling choice propensities by household type (family and non-family) with the projected number of renter and owner households of the given household type and age group. – Historical dwelling choice (occupancy) propensities describe the proportion of a given household type, tenure, and age of head group occupying each of the four dwelling types. Finally, communities should integrate assessments of pre-existing housing shortages into their final calculations. This integration should be informed by a thorough review of the preceding quantitative and qualitative analyses within the HNA. Additionally, communities should utilize the data and more advanced methodologies detailed in the Annex to ensure a comprehensive estimation of these shortages.

HART Household Projections – Projected Households by Household Size and Income Category •

The HART methodology estimates the total number of units by type (number of bedrooms) and with reference to income categories that will be needed to house a community’s projected population.

Please use the Housing Assessment Resource Tools Households Projections tab to fill out the table below for your jurisdiction – Housing Needs Assessment Tool | HART 6.1.1 Projected Households by Household Size and Income Category, 2031 HH Income Category

1 person

2 person

3 person

4 person

5+ person

Total

Very Low Income

1,074

1,099

Low Income

3,984

1,746

153

5,889

Moderate Income

2,161

3,545

604

103

6,417

Median Income 1,199

4,494

1,150

563

170

7,576

High Income

759

4,727

2,761

2,621

1,632

12,500

Total

9,177

14,537

4,668

3,287

1,812

Key Considerations Population •

•

It is strongly advised to use the updated post-census population estimates for 2022 as your base population provided by Statistics Canada’s demographic estimates division. These estimates account for any discrepancies in population counts, whether they are undercounts or overcounts. These estimates also smooth out the sharp downturn in immigration due to the pandemic in 2020/21. Please refer to annex for links to Statistics Canada CSD and CMA estimates. If historical fertility, survival and mortality rates by age category are stable and not trending, apply average historical rates to current population by age to project forward. If rates do trend by age over time, estimate the average change in rates in percentage points and add to current rates when projecting forward for the baseline scenario. For larger communities and centres where the data exists, disaggregate and project baseline net migration flows for respective components (i.e., net interprovincial, net intra migration and net international). Disaggregate net international migration and project its components further (emigration, returning Canadians, non permanent residents, etc.) and use recent growth trends per flow to project total net international migration. In projecting international migration, it will be important for communities to use the more updated federal immigration targets as an anchor. Because of the economic uncertainty triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic and potential future shocks, larger communities are expected to create one additional population scenario (high) to supplement the baseline. Utilize StatsCan projection methodology for fertility, survival, and migration to establish the high scenario. Consult Statistics Canada’s population projection report cited in the appendix. Communities should avoid using low population or migration scenarios to prevent housing need undercounting. Smaller Communities: –

–

In smaller centers where population projection scenarios are unavailable from StatsCan, but there is the capacity to generate them, cities can resort to using historically high population growth rates or migration scenarios as alternative methods for projecting future population. One industry communities should also develop multiple population scenarios to manage economic volatility

Household Projections • • •

•

Headship rate is commonly defined as the ratio of the number of households by age to the population of adults by age in each community and can be used to project future households. If historical headship rates data is not trending or stable by age, apply the average historical census family/non-family headship rates by age group to the corresponding population within each age group. If historical headship rates by age is showing a trend over time, include the average historical census family/non-family headship rates percentage point change to the current headship rate. Subsequently, apply these adjusted headship rates by age to the corresponding population within each age group. By incorporating average historical headship rates into household projections, communities can mitigate the impact of potential decreases in recent headship rates that may be due to housing unaffordability, therefore avoiding artificially low household projections. Optional for Smaller Communities: – For the younger population aged 18-34, predict family/non-family headship rates using economic modeling. See UK study in annex for further guidance. – Project household composition by family/non-family households using latest census proportions by family type. – Project household size by age for family/nonfamily type by dividing population by households.

Housing Demand To project housing demand by tenure: •

•

If ownership rates for family/non-family households within specific age groups are not showing a trend over time, apply the average historical ownership rates to projected households by age. The remaining households are considered renter households by age. If ownership rates for family/non-family households within specific age groups are trending over time, include the average historical percentage point change to the current ownership rates. Apply these adjusted ownership rates to household counts by age to project tenure by age. The remaining households are considered renter households by age.

To project housing demand by dwelling type:

• •

If historical dwelling propensities by family type, age, and tenure are not exhibiting a trend, apply the average historical demand propensity by type, age, and tenure to project households by type, age, and tenure. If historical demand type propensities are trending, incorporate the average percentage point change in demand type propensities to the current propensities. Apply these adjusted propensities to household types to estimate future dwelling propensities.

Economic Data Integration • • • •

Relying solely on traditional demographic approaches to forecast housing needs can underestimate housing demand. Headship rates by age and family type can be projected by considering economic factors as explanatory drivers. These factors could include income, unemployment rates, prices, rents, and vacancy rates. CMHC is developing models to project headship rates for household maintainers aged 18-34 in provinces and larger metropolitan areas. Larger communities can benefit from leveraging these projections. Using an economic approach to project headship rates and incomes facilitates the estimation of household counts by age, size, tenure, and income. When integrated with dwelling type, price, and rent data, this approach assists in identifying potential households in core housing need.

Supply Capacity & Supply Gaps • •

• •

Housing need projections should be adjusted upwards or downwards to account for the net effects of conversions, demolitions, and vacant units in each community. Where data is available, communities should assess future capacity by compiling data on draft approved serviced lots, categorized by dwelling type and tenure, that will be available for residential development. When combined with household projections by dwelling type and tenure, help estimate supply gaps In addition, larger communities can leverage supply gap estimates from CMHC to help inform where need is greatest and to identify housing shortages. Optional for Smaller Communities: –

Comparing housing need projections with supply capacity will enable communities to identify potential gaps in supply by dwelling type and tenure.

6.2 Projection Methodology Please outline the methodology and calculations used to complete the projections here, including any assumptions made. The forecast prepared by Watson as part of the Growth Management Study applies a headship-rate framework grounded in the City’s population scenarios. Households are projected by applying age-specific headship rates, calculated as the ratio of household maintainers to population, to the forecast age distribution. These rates are based on Statistics Canada data and are assumed to remain generally stable across the horizon. Persons-per-unit are tracked to ensure the model remains internally consistent, with average values gradually declining as the population ages and the housing mix shifts toward medium- and higher-density forms. The High growth scenario was adopted for planning purposes after testing the Ministry of Finance forecasts and reconciling results against historical Census evidence. To supplement the projections, the Housing Needs Assessment analyzed Statistics Canada data from 2001 to 2021 on tenure, age of primary maintainer, and housing type in order to forecast households by tenure. Anticipated distributions by income category were derived using the HART tool, which proportionally allocates household growth by income group. For estimating apartment units by bedroom count, a customized Statistics Canada dataset linking construction year and bedroom size was used to establish a local profile. These steps provide a consistent framework for linking demographic growth with the type, size, and tenure of housing needed across the City. Historical trends in Census data regarding fertility, survival rates, and migration were analyzed and applied to the forecast accordingly.

6.2.1 Projections 2025 - 2051 Characteristic

Women by age distribution (# and %)

Data/Formula

Value

0-14

2,088 (9%)

15-19

800 (4%)

20-24

989 (4%)

25-64

9,726 (43%)

6.2.1 Projections 2025 - 2051 Characteristic

Data/Formula

Value

65-84

4,656 (20%)

85+

4,594 (20%)

Total

22,853

Male Births

Births x Estimated Proportion of Male Births

11,200 (50%)

Female Births

Total births – Male Births

11,200 (50%)

Survival Rate

Survival rate for those not yet born at the beginning of the census year

99.6%

Net Migrations

Net migration (in and out) of those not yet born 220 at the beginning of the census year

Projected Family Households

Age-group population x projected age-specific family headship rate

13,350

Projected Non-family Households

Age-group population x projected age-specific non-family headship rate

6,220

Total Projected Headship Rate

Family headship rates + non-family headship rates

19,570

Projected Net Household Formation

Projected households by type (family and nonfamily) (Year 2) – Projected households by type 19,570 (family and non-family) (Year 1)

Projected Owner Households

Structure Type: Low (single and semis): Projected households by type, year and age group x Projected ownership rate by type, year 8,967 and age group Medium (towns/rows): 3,943

6.2.1 Projections 2025 - 2051 Characteristic

Data/Formula

Value High (apartments): 3,015 Total Units: 15,925

Projected Owner Households by Age of Primary Maintainer: 15-24 Years: -14 25-34 Years: 748 35-44 Years: 1,209 45-54 Years: 2,575 55-64 Years: 1,272 65-74 Years: 1,753 75+ Years and Older: 8,381 Total: 15,925 Structure Type: Low (single and semis): 305

Projected Renter Households

Projected households by type, year and age group – projected rental households by type, year and age group

Medium (towns/rows): 1,723 High (apartments): 1,615 Total Units: 3,644

Projected Renter Households by Age

6.2.1 Projections 2025 - 2051 Characteristic

Data/Formula

Value of Primary Maintainer: 15-24 Years: 236 25-34 Years: 359 35-44 Years: 459 45-54 Years: 437 55-64 Years: 370 65-74 Years: 227 75+ Years and Older: 1,556 Total: 3,644 Structure Type: Low (single and semis): 9,270 Medium (towns/rows): 5,660 High (apartments): 4,630 Total Units: 19,560

Projected Dwelling Choice

Projected households by type, tenure and age group x projected dwelling choice propensities by type, tenure and age group

Projected TOTAL Households by Age of Primary Maintainer: 15-24 Years: 230 25-34 Years: 1,110 35-44 Years: 1,670 45-54 Years: 3,010 55-64 Years: 1,640

6.2.1 Projections 2025 - 2051 Characteristic

Data/Formula

Value 65-74 Years: 1,970 75+ Years and Older: 9,930 Total: 19,560

6.3 Population and Households Projections

6.3.1 Anticipated Population by [Mid 2051] Characteristic

Data

Value

Anticipated population

Total (2051)

130,000

Total

44,150

Percentage

51%

Average

Median

0-14

12%

15-19

20-24

25-64

47%

65-84

24%

Anticipated population growth

Anticipated age

Anticipated age distribution (# and %)

6.3.1 Anticipated Population by [Mid 2051] Characteristic

Data

Value

85+

Characteristic

Data

Value

Current number of households

Total (2025)

34,752

Anticipated number of households

Total (2051)

54,320

Average

2010

Median

2000

Renter

9,700

Owner

44,650

Total (Includes 310 ‘Other’ Units)

54,320

Single

37,700

Semi-detached

770

Row (All Medium)

7,330

Apartment

8,210

6.3.2 Anticipated Households by 2051

Anticipated Household Age by 2051

Anticipated Households by Tenure by 2051

Anticipated Units by Type

Anticipated Units by Number of Bedrooms (High Density)

1 bedroom

4,219

6.3.2 Anticipated Households by 2051 Characteristic

Data

2 bedroom

3 bedroom

Value 3,476

443

29 4 bedroom

5 bedroom

Average

10,595

Median

11,960

Very Low

1,270

Low

10,530

Moderate

11,370

High

19,210

Total

2.34

Anticipated Households by Income

Anticipated average household size

Draft approved lots by planned housing type

Total

Residential (10+): 3,454 units (3,073 OPA; 381 ZBA). Residential (Under 10): 32 units (7 OPA; 25 ZBA).

6.3.2 Anticipated Households by 2051 Characteristic

Data

Value Total: 3,488 units.

Tenant

110

Owner

3,378

Draft approved lots by tenure

Growth Management Study, 2025 Watson & Associates completed a Growth Management Strategy (GMS) in January 2025 fro the City. Relevant information from the GMS is being provided in lieu of some of the missing data in the template’s tables above. The full GMS report is available on our website, as well as a Supplementary Technical Package. The GMS recommends the high growth scenario, which forms the basis for the 2051 projections. The high growth scenario was chosen as the recommended long-term growth forecast for Kawartha Lakes as it is consistent with Provincial planning policy direction representing the upper limit long-term growth potential. The high growth scenario represents a reasonable forecast considering increased opportunities for population growth to Kawartha Lakes, largely due to continued outward growth pressure from the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (G.T.H.A) municipalities and increased local urban housing supply opportunities. This trend is also confirmed through an assessment of recent building permit activity, as well as increased residential supply opportunities in Kawartha Lakes. The follow table from the GMS shows the projections based on the high growth scenario. It complements the data requested above in tables 6.3.1 and 6.3.2. Housing Units

Year

Population (including Census undercoun t)[1]

Population Excluding Census Undercount

Singles & SemiDetached

Multiple Dwellings[2]

Apartments[3]

Other

Total Households

Person Per Unit (P.P.U): Total Population/ Total Households

Mid 2011

75,030

73,214

25,470

1,215

2,820

176

29,681

2.47

77,290

75,423

26,515

1,495

2,765

325

31,100

2.43

81,210

79,247

27,955

1,495

2,950

310

32,710

2.42

86,700

84,600

29,820

2,050

3,420

310

35,600

2.38

96,200

93,900

32,260

3,010

4,180

310

39,760

2.36

105,600

103,000

34,440

4,090

5,060

310

43,900

2.35

114,000

111,200

36,090

5,150

5,980

310

47,530

2.34

122,200

119,200

37,410

6,220

7,020

310

50,960

2.34

130,000

126,900

38,470

7,330

8,210

310

54,320

2.34

Mid 2011 Mid 2016

2,260

2,209

1,045

280

149

1,419

Mid 2016 Mid 2021

3,920

3,824

1,440

Mid 2021 Mid 2026

5,490

5,353

1,865

555

470

Mid 2021 Mid 2031

14,990

14,653

4,305

1,515

1,230

Mid 2021 Mid 2036

24,390

23,753

6,485

2,595

2,110

Historical

Mid 2016

Mid 2021

Mid 2026

Mid 2031

Mid 2036

Mid 2041

Forecast

Mid 2046

Incremental

Mid 2051

-55

185

-15

1,610

2,890

7,050

11,190

Mid 2021 Mid 2041

32,790

31,953

8,135

3,655

3,030

Mid 2021 Mid 2046

40,990

39,953

9,455

4,725

4,070

Mid 2021 Mid 2051

48,790

47,653

10,515

5,835

5,260

14,820

18,250

21,610

[1] Census undercount estimated at approximately 102.5% [2]

includes townhouses and apartments in duplexes

[3]

Includes bachelor, 1-bedroom, 2-bedroom+ apartments

Source: Historical growth from Statistics Canada Census data; forecast by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2024

The following graph from the GMS presents the high growth scenario for the overall population projection.

City of Kawartha Lakes Recommended High Growth Scenario, 2001 to 2051

Population (including undercount)

140,000

130,000 122,200 113,900 120,000 105,600 96,100 100,000 86,000 81,200 76,900 77,300 80,000 72,000 74,900 60,000 40,000 20,000 0

Year Note: Population includes net Census undercount and has been rounded. Source: 2001 to 2021 historical data derived from Statistics Canada Census; 2021 to 2051 forecast by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

The following table, taken from the 2025 GMS, shows the forecasted housing structure types, complementing the data requested in Table 6.3.2 above.

City of Kawartha Lakes Housing Forecast by Structure Type, 2021 to 2051 Forecast Average…

900 800

830

150

180

400 300

580 190 Historical Average 550 300 90 280

100

210

2011-2016

30 20 40 -10

240

210 210

320 50 30

220 490 370

280

210

220

110

200 100

670

180

600 500

720 680

2006-2011

Total Annual Households

700

440 330

260

250

210

-10

Low Density

Medium Density

High Density

Historical Average

2046-2051

2041-2046

2036-2041

2031-2036

2026-2031

2021-2026

2016-2021

2001-2006

-100

Forecast Average Notes: Low-density includes singles & semi-detached, and “other” households. Medium-density includes townhouses and apartments in duplexes. High-density includes bachelor, 1-bedroom, and 2-bedroom plus apartments. Figures have been rounded. Source: 2021 derived from Statistics Canada Census, 2021, and 2021 to 2051 forecast by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

Under the GMS’s recommended high population growth scenario to 2051, the percentage of people 75 years and over is forecast to significantly increase from 12% in 2021 to 22% in 2051. This increase is seen while all other age groups are projected to decline in percentage by 2051. This increase in people over 75 years old is anticipated to place increasing demand on the need for seniors’ housing, affordable housing, and community and social services geared to older seniors. It will also place downward pressure on the population and labour force growth rate within the City, similar to the Province as a whole, resulting in more reliance on net migration as a source of population growth.

City of Kawartha Lakes Forecast by Age Structure, Recommended High Growth Scenario, 2021 to 2051

Share of Population by Age

100% 90% 80% 70%

14%

17%

20%

22%

16%

17%

15%

13%

60%

17%

15%

13%

12%

13%

50%

13%

12%

11%

40%

11%

12%

10%

11%

30%

10%

20%

10%

10% 9%

10% 9% 9%

9% 9% 10%

9% 9% 9%

13%

14%

13%

2021

2026

2031

2036 Year

2041

2046

2051

10% 0%

12%

0-14 years

15-24 years

25-34 years

35-44 years

45-54 years

55-64 years

65-74 years

75 years and over

7. Use of Housing Needs Assessments in Long-Term Planning 7.1 This final section aims to determine how your community anticipates using the results and findings captured in the Housing Needs Assessment to inform long-term planning and concrete actions that can address identified needs. Please use the following questions to describe how those linkages will be made. •

•

How will this HNA inform your official community or development plan, housing policies and/or actions going forward? For example, if the HNA identifies specific needs in your community across the housing spectrum – such as housing needed for priority populations, units for large households in denser form factors, more diverse structural types such as missing middle housing, or more affordable and higher-density housing near transit - how could actions and changes in policy and planning help address those needs? How will data collected through the HNA help direct those plans and policies as they aim to improve housing locally and regionally, and how will this intersect with major development patterns, growth management strategies, master plans and capital plans that guide infrastructure investments?

The City of Kawartha Lakes Official Plan was approved in 2012 and was subject to many appeals. Those appeals were finally resolved in 2024. The City will begin in 2025 to develop a new Official Plan. Provide a vision for growth to accommodate all residents with diverse housing options to meet the needs identified in this HNA. For example, it has been identified that one-parent families have incomes well below the average and need subsidized housing. It has also been identified that seniors now represent the highest proportion in core housing need. The Official Plan will develop policies to address these needs. The Official Plan will also need to address the apparent imbalance of single detached dwellings, which comprise 84% of housing units, compared to multiunit buildings. Multi-unit buildings less than five storeys make up only 7% of all housing units. A greater diversity of housing options is needed to accommodate those who are low-income, single-parent, senior, or refugee claimants. The development of the new Official Plan will include a number of background studies, including its own ‘housing needs assessment’ to examine more fully the different forms of housing needed and where they need to be located. This HNA lays the groundwork for a more detailed analysis to ensure we provide the appropriate range of housing typologies. The development agreement for the lands subject to the Minister’s Zoning Orders just outside of Lindsay, which will see more than 10,000, contains commitments to 91

affordable housing. The data and information gathered in this HNA will help support the decisions regarding the form these affordable units take. The City’s Strategic Plan 2024-2027 was developed through consultation with Council, the public, community partners and staff, reflecting our municipality's values, vision and mission. One of the Strategic Plan’s priorities is to increase affordable and attainable housing by meeting the targets in the Municipal Housing Pledge, streamlining the approval process for residential development, encouraging intensification, and providing the full continuum of housing types, including purpose-built rentals. Other priorities in the Strategic Plan include providing homelessness prevention programs and support, and ensuring key planning documents are created or updated to support residential development. The City’s 2025 budget invests $15 million to begin construction on 65 new affordable housing units in Fenelon Falls and Minden. The budget also directs funding toward organizations supporting vulnerable residents, expanded childcare spaces, and the Integrated Wellness Hub, set to open in 2025 and offering comprehensive support for those dealing with mental health, addictions, and homelessness. •

Based on this HNA's findings, particularly the projected housing needs, please describe any anticipated growth pressures caused by infrastructure gaps that must be prioritized and addressed to effectively plan and prepare for forecasted growth. This can relate to any enabling infrastructure needed for housing, including fixed and non-fixed assets, as well as social, community or natural infrastructure that your local government has identified as a priority for fostering more complete and resilient communities.

Examples may include: • • • • •

Will your public transit system have the capacity to meet increasing demand? Will your water and wastewater system have the capacity for additional connections based on the number of new housing units that need to be built? Will new roads or bridges need to be built to serve new or growing communities? Will new schools, parks, community or recreational centres need to be built to serve new or growing communities? Will broadband service and access need to be significantly expanded to help new residents and businesses connect? Are there any climate risks or impacts that will affect new growth?

The City of Kawartha Lakes has completed or is nearing completion of the following studies, which will guide our long-term planning. Numerous other studies are not listed here, but the following are more closely related to housing. 92

Growth Management Strategy The City’s Growth Management Strategy was completed in early 2025. The 2025 GMS is foundational to the forthcoming update of the City’s Official Plan. This new GMS will replace the City’s 2011 GMS in light of evolving local/regional demographic, socioeconomic, and economic trends and updated provincial planning legislation. The GMS is designed to proactively plan for growth and accommodate change over the next several decades. Under the recommended high-growth scenario, by 2051, the total permanent population base for the City of Kawartha Lakes is forecast to grow to approximately 130,000 persons. This represents an increase of approximately 48,800 residents between 2021 and 2051, or an average annual population growth rate of 1.6%. Accommodating forecast population growth across the City to 2051 will require approximately 21,640 new households, or about 720 new households annually. The GMS provides a breakdown of the housing typologies forecasted and a land economic analysis to demonstrate which settlement areas need to expand to accommodate the forecasted growth. Transportation Master Plan and Active Transportation Master Plan Completed in 2024, the Active Transportation Master Plan outlines a long-term vision for improving infrastructure to support active transportation, such as biking, walking, and other forms of self-propelled movement, across the City. Completed in 2025, the Transportation Master Plan will serve as a living document that will aid the city and its staff in identifying the multi-modal transportation facilities, services, and policies required to ensure enhanced mobility, accessibility and connectivity. This will include incorporating the recommendations of the Active Transportation Master Plan. The Transportation Master Plan will include the development of a roadmap for multi-modal transportation planning needs to cope with the demands under the 2051 horizon year with a goal of optimizing the performance of existing infrastructure and identifying the most sustainable approach to accommodating new development, in line with growth as reflected in the City’s Growth Management Strategy (“GMS”). Our approach envisions an integrated and multi-modal network of mobility options that supports the city’s strategic objectives, reflects the community context, and contains the appropriate transportation infrastructure. Housing and Homelessness Assessment (Strategy) The Housing and Homelessness Assessment is currently being completed. This project facilitates community members' providing their firsthand experiences and insights so they can inform policies that improve housing affordability, stability, and inclusion. The Assessment aims to identify: common challenges in finding and keeping housing; 93

barriers to affordability, stability, and fairness; and community-driven ideas to enhance housing policies and well-being. Preliminary work into this Assessment was used to complete this HNA, and the HNA may, in turn, refine some of the focus and direction of the Assessment. Parks and Recreation Strategic Plan and Parks Master Plan The Parks and Recreation Strategic Plan will be completed in the Summer of 2025. This Strategic Plan will assist Council and staff in managing the direction of parks and recreation assets and services through 2040. The Plan will define community needs and interests; identify where parks and facilities should be located, when they will be needed, and how they will be delivered and funded. Following the completion of the Strategic Plan, a Parks Master Plan will be developed to review the City’s parks and open space system and refine the park planning process. The Parks Master Plan will provide an assessment as to which areas are underserviced by parkland and provide recommendations to improve access to and the quality of the City’s existing and future parkland. Transit Master Plan The 2018 Transit Master Plan is set to be replaced by a new Transit Master Plan that will develop a comprehensive plan to enhance and expand public transit services across the City’s rural and urban areas. The new plan will guide transit planning, investment, and operations over the next 10 years, ensuring that the transit system meets all residents' current and future needs. Water and Wastewater Strategy The 2025 Water and Wastewater Servicing and Capacity Master Plan aims to ensure adequate water and wastewater infrastructure to support existing communities and planned growth to 2051, accommodating an anticipated population of 130,000 and 40,600 jobs. This plan addresses existing constraints, identifies upgrades needed, and proposes a long-term strategy for servicing, including potential expansion and enhancements to treatment plants, pipelines, and storage facilities. As the Consolidated Service Manager for Kawartha Lakes and Haliburton, the City has a legislated responsibility under the Housing Services Act, 2011, to plan, fund, and oversee housing and homelessness programs across the full continuum. This Housing Needs Assessment (HNA) has already been used. It served as the foundation for the Deeply Affordable and Supportive Housing Strategy (2025)—a high-level, action-focused plan to guide delivery over the next decade. The HNA will continue to support implementation in the following ways: 94

1. Strategy Implementation The findings of the HNA directly shaped our forthcoming deeply affordable housing strategy, which sets a delivery target of 310 deeply affordable units, 80 supportive housing units, and 85 transitional units. These numbers come from the HNA’s modelling work and income-based demand projections. The strategy includes a costed project pipeline, internal coordination framework, and governance model. 2. Upcoming Official Plan Update The City is preparing for an Official Plan update in 2026. The HNA will inform land use designations, density targets, and policies supporting more diverse, lower-cost housing types. It will also be used to align zoning with income realities and ensure that land-use decisions help enable—not restrict—affordable and supportive housing. 3. Growth Management and Infrastructure Planning The HNA is used to operationalize the Growth Management Strategy by identifying where housing needs intersect with infrastructure readiness. It helps guide where new projects should go—and what infrastructure gaps (water, wastewater, roads) need to be addressed to unlock those sites. This alignment will also be reflected in capital planning and asset management strategies. 4. Growth-Related Infrastructure and Housing Alignment This HNA coordinated with the Growth Management Strategy and the Infrastructure Master Plan recommendations will be used to sequence housing delivery with growthrelated infrastructure where applicable. The City will apply a readiness lens that prioritizes sites and areas with available or near-term water and wastewater capacity, safe transportation access, and proximity to services. Where capacity is constrained, the HNA will inform the timing and scope of capital works so that planned upgrades unlock the right unit types for priority populations identified in Sections 3 and 4. This approach links housing outcomes to master plans and the capital budget, and ensures the Official Plan update advances a full continuum of housing in locations that infrastructure can support. 5. Internal Systems Alignment Data from the HNA is being used to support internal coordination across planning, engineering, finance, infrastructure, and human services. The goal is to treat deeply affordable and supportive housing as core infrastructure and embed housing outcomes into how sites are prioritized, budgets are built, and approvals move through the system. 6. Advocacy and Intergovernmental Funding The HNA provides a strong evidence base for funding applications and provincial/federal engagement. It clearly articulates local need—by population group, income level, and geography—and supports the City's case for external investment. It also strengthens 95

the City's ability to respond to federal and provincial funding opportunities with shovelready projects and defined delivery priorities. The findings of this HNA highlight that housing outcomes in Kawartha Lakes are inseparable from the timing and delivery of growth-related infrastructure. Without alignment between housing demand, servicing capacity, and community supports, population growth will continue to intensify affordability gaps rather than reduce them. By linking the HNA to capital planning and master servicing strategies, the City can ensure that housing delivery is directed to locations where infrastructure is ready or can be upgraded in the near term. This integrated approach will improve affordability, accelerate housing supply, and support complete communities. Key intersections between housing and infrastructure include: •

• •

•

Water and wastewater: Prioritize upgrades in locations such as Fenelon Falls and Bobcaygeon, where storage and distribution capacity affects new supply, and downtown Lindsay, where incremental improvements could enable upperstorey apartment conversions. Transportation: Align transit improvements with higher-density and rental development in areas such as Lindsay and along key settlement corridors. Community facilities: Explore opportunities to co-locate affordable and supportive housing with facilities such as the Integrated Wellness Hub to enhance tenant stability. Growth phasing: Consider sequencing capital projects so that major expansions, including trunk infrastructure for MZO lands near Lindsay, are timed to support both market and affordable housing delivery.

Taken together, this Housing Needs Assessment provides a comprehensive picture of where housing pressures exist, who is most affected, and how growth can be managed to address these challenges. The analysis combines quantitative data and local lived experience to highlight both structural gaps in the housing system and opportunities for targeted action. By linking housing demand with infrastructure, land use planning, and community services, the HNA positions Kawartha Lakes to make coordinated, evidencebased decisions that advance the City’s Strategic Plan and strengthen quality of life for all residents.

Annex A: Relevant Links for Developing Housing Needs Projections Data and Analysis Housing Statistics - Statistics Canada Population estimates, July 1, by Census subdivision, 2016 boundaries (statcan.gc.ca) Population estimates, July 1, by census metropolitan (statcan.gc.ca) Population and demography statistics (statcan.gc.ca) Population Projections for Canada (2021 to 2068), Provinces and Territories (2021 to 2043) (statcan.gc.ca) Housing Market Information Portal UrbanSim – Scenario Modeling Reports & Publications Housing Markets Insight - CMHC’s household projections for 8 of Canada’s major urban centres until 2042 CMHC - Housing Shortages in Canada Report University of British Columbia - Housing Assessment Resource Tools (HART) University of London - Affordability targets: Implications for Housing Supply Nova Scotia Housing Needs Assessment Report Methodology Ontario Land Needs Assessment Methodology British Columbia Affordable Housing Need Assessment Methodology

Annex B: Glossary Affordable Housing: A dwelling unit where the cost of shelter, including rent and utilities, is a maximum of 30% of before-tax household income. Area Median Household Income: The median income of all households in a given area. Cooperative Housing: A type of residential housing option whereby the owners do not own their units outright. This would include non-profit housing cooperatives, as stand-alone co-operatives or in partnership with another non-profit, including student housing co-ops, as well as Indigenous co-ops, including those in partnership with Indigenous governments and organizations. This does not, however, include homeownership co-ops or equity co-ops that require an investment, which along with any profit earned, is returned to co-op investors. Core Housing Need: Refers to whether a private household’s housing falls below at least one of the indicator thresholds for housing adequacy, affordability or suitability, and would have to spend 30% or more of its total before-tax income to pay the median rent of alternative local housing that is acceptable (attains all three housing indicator thresholds). •

•

Adequate – Does not require any major repairs, according to residents. Major

repairs include those to defective plumbing or electrical wiring, or structural repairs to walls, floors or ceilings. Suitable – Has enough bedrooms for the size and make-up of resident households, according to guidelines outlined in National Occupancy Standard (NOS). Affordable – All shelter costs total less than 30% of a household’s before-tax income.

Household: A person or a group of persons (other than foreign residents) who occupy a private dwelling and do not have a usual place of residence elsewhere in Canada. Household Formation: The net change in the number of households. Supportive Housing: Prioritizes people experiencing chronic homelessness and other vulnerable people who have the highest support needs. It provides long-term affordable housing and a diversity of customized support services. Permanent Supportive Housing: Prioritizes people experiencing chronic homelessness and other vulnerable people who have the highest support needs. It provides long-term affordable housing and a diversity of customized support services. Purpose-Built Rental: Also known as the primary rental market or secure rentals; multi-unit buildings (three or more units) which are built specifically for the purpose of providing long-term rental accommodations. Short-Term Rentals: All or part of a dwelling unit rented out for less than 28 consecutive days in exchange for payment. This includes bed and breakfasts (B&Bs) but excludes hotels and motels. It also excludes other accommodations where there is no payment. Suppressed Household Formation: New households that would have been formed but are not due to a lack of attainable options. The persons who would have formed these households include, but are not limited to, many adults living with family members or roommates and individuals wishing to leave unsafe or unstable environments but cannot due to a lack of places to go. Missing Middle Housing: Housing that fits the gap between low-rise, primarily singlefamily homes and mid-rise apartment buildings, typically including secondary and garden suites, duplexes, triplexes, fourplexes, rowhouses and townhouses, courtyard housing, and low-rise apartment buildings of 4 storeys or less. These housing types provide a variety of housing options that add housing stock and meet the growing demand for walkability. The missing middle also refers to the lack of available and affordable housing for middle-income households to rent or own.