Monthly Market Monitor
November 2021
Table of contents
Macro Radar In a Nutshell
Taking the pulse of economic activity
Our view on the markets
06
04
Satellite View Geopolitical heat map
Asset Allocation Notes from the Investment Committee
07
08
Theme in Focus How long until parity?
10
Drawdown: All about private banking Why losses are so "expensive"
11
The Back Page Asset classes & agenda
12 Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - November 2021
3
In a Nutshell
Our view on the markets
A winter without lockdowns The macro mix of rising (energy) prices, labor shortages and ongoing supply bottlenecks in global merchandise trade is blowing a stiff headwind at the economic recovery and is likely to cause a noticeable pullback in growth in the second half of this year. But developments surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic at least inspire hope because renewed lockdowns are unlikely to be necessary this winter. A resumed acceleration in economic growth from spring 2022 onward remains our baseline expectation. Buy the dip The autumnal storm on the equity markets was of exceptionally short duration this year. Once again, investors used the setback in early October to do some buying. The question now, though, is how much higher equity markets can climb in the face of weakening economic growth dynamics, mounting price pressure and impending tapering by the US Federal Reserve. The third-quarter reporting season provides at least a partial answer. Inflation is leaving fingerprints Persistently high inflation rates are making more and more central bankers nervous. Shifts to tighter monetary policies are now happening faster in many places
Chart of the Month Higher inflation and slower economic growth | The recipe for a stagflation cocktail? Number of Bloomberg stories mentioning stagflation
Sources: Bloomberg, Kaiser Partner Privatbank 4
Monthly Market Monitor - November 2021 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG
than had been conceivable a short time ago. This has also left marks on the fixed-income markets. Government bonds threaten to post the worst price performance this year since 1999. While the fixed-income asset class remains vulnerable in the current macro climate, private-market assets look set to stay in demand and are likely to deliver above-average returns. How long until parity? The Swiss National Bank, staying true to its mantra, continues to call the franc “highly valued.” But like so many things, a currency valuation is a matter of perspective (or the model employed). In any case, the value of Switzerland’s currency (against the euro) actually is almost cheap, at least on the basis of purchasing power parity. Why losses are so “costly” The human brain isn’t wired to operate and maneuver tactically on financial markets. Psychology plays pranks on investors from time to time, and (financial) mathematics can also be tricky. In this context, the stock market adage to “cut your losses and let your winners run” ranks among the wisest maxims of its kind, but adhering to it is much easier said than done. We explain why investors should follow it consistently and diligently in the new Private Banking Corner section of Monthly Market Monitor.
The latest COVID wave, endless disruptions to world trade, soaring energy prices, and tenaciously high inflation rates are causing mounting concerns about economic growth and inflation and are fanning fears among investors about a coming phase of stagflation. But it’s seldom helpful to let oneself be misled by the media noise. Although inflation admittedly is unlikely to revert so quickly to the pre-pandemic level, it does look set to pull back over the course of 2022 (especially as temporary inflationary factors fade). Meanwhile, economic growth will indeed decelerate, but ultimately will stay firmly in expansion territory. Furthermore, a recurrence of an oil price shock like the one in the 1970s is improbable because the world economy today is far less (oil-based) energy-intensive than before. Moreover, in inflation-adjusted terms, the real price of oil (for businesses and consumers) is still cheaper today than it was in 2008 or during the 2011–2014 period.
Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - November 2021
5
Macro Radar
Taking the pulse of economic activity
Little sunlight and lots of cloud cover – this description applies not only to the chilly season, but also to the (near-term) economic outlook at the moment. But there’s no reason for pessimism. We continue to expect that the situation will brighten again by the middle of 2022.
Business sentiment is souring Labor shortages, rising (energy) prices and worsening supply chain bottlenecks – this mix of woes is increasingly ruining moods in corporate boardrooms and C-suites. The Eurozone purchasing managers’ index, for instance, fell in October for the third consecutive month. Even though it is still solidly in expansion territory at a current reading of 54.3 points, it portends a far worse slowdown in economic growth for the second half of this year than was expected this summer. COVID-19 appears manageable Those who are optimists can at least take hope in current developments surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic. The fourth wave in Europe has significantly gained momentum since the start of October, but is now mostly affecting young age brackets. Meanwhile, the correlation between case counts and serious medical complications has broken down. A combination of booster vaccinations, a broadening of immunization campaigns to include younger people and incentives for the unvaccinated should render renewed lockdowns unnecessary in the biggest countries of Europe. Central banks on the move The macroeconomic dissonance has caused sentiment to swing also among many central bankers. Ever fewer of them consider an ultra-accommodative monetary policy appropriate in the current climate, and more and more of them are prepared to step on the brakes. After Norway and New Zealand, the Bank of England soon
Soon back to triple digits? | Adjusted for inflation, black gold is not expensive yet Price of Brent crude oil
looks set to become the first heavyweight to tighten the interest-rate screw. Meanwhile, after the US Federal Reserve's tapering has been a done deal at the November FOMC meeting, the question in the USA will now revolve around the timing of the first interest-rate hike. China only slowly easing Economic growth in China decelerated to +4.9% in the third quarter. Although exports remained robust, the government’s new priorities (sustainable growth and social equity) took a toll on economic output. Highranking Communist Party officials nonetheless seem a long way from panicking about this, so we are seeing more of a fine-tuning of growth. Alongside the recent easing of coal mining and mortgage approval regulations, the fine-tuning also includes stepped-up borrowing by local governments (for investments in infrastructure). China, however, is unlikely to become a driver of world economic growth for the time being. Consensus estimates 2020
2021
2022
GDP growth (in %) Switzerland
-3.2
3.4
3.0
Eurozone
-6.8
5.0
4.3
UK
-9.9
7.0
5.0
USA
-3.5
5.7
4.0
2.3
8.1
5.5
-0.7
0.5
0.6
0.3
2.3
2.0
China Inflation (in %) Switzerland Eurozone UK
0.9
2.3
3.2
USA
1.3
4.4
3.3
China
2.5
1.0
2.2
Kaiser Partner Privatbank interest rates view Last
3M
12M
Key interest rates (in %) Switzerland
-0.75
→
→
Eurozone
-0.50
→
→
UK
0.10
↗
↗
USA
0.25
→
↗
China
2.95
↘
↘
10-year yields (in %)
Sources: Bloomberg, Kaiser Partner Privatbank 6
Monthly Market Monitor - November 2021 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG
Switzerland
-0.04
→
↗
Eurozone
-0.12
→
↗ ↗
UK
1.04
→
USA
1.55
→
↗
China
2.93
→
→
Sources: Bloomberg, Kaiser Partner Privatbank
Satellite View Geopolitical heat map
Iran (and the atomic bomb) Iran announced its intention to restart diplomatic talks on the country’s nuclear program by the end of November. This, however, veils the fragility of the geopolitical risk situation because the Iranians may already acquire the capability to build nuclear weapons by the end of this year. The USA and Israel have not brandished a credible military threat lately to directly deter Iran’s nuclear ambitions, but instead have been conducting a “covert war” of sabotage and cyberattacks against Iran outside the public eye. First and foremost, though, they are banking on diplomacy. But major diplomatic progress now needs to be made very soon, and there is an ever-increasing risk of a miscalculation. A nearterm crisis that brings all parties back to the negotiating table and culminates in an acceptable nuclear deal appears practically inevitable. If such a deal does not materialize, Iran will soon develop a nuclear first strike capability, which would compel a military response by the USA and Israel. If a military altercation ensues, in that risk scenario, Iran could shut down the Strait of Hormuz, which would not only upend the global petroleum market, but would also spark a global recession. Even smaller-scale interventions such as a “Tanker War 2.0” or renewed drone attacks on oil infrastructure could cause the price of petroleum to soar.
China’s appetite for reforms What has top priority for the Communist Party on the road to “common prosperity”: ideology or pragmatism? If the former outweighs the latter, China’s autocratic government risks getting ensnarled in its populist campaign to cap housing costs and risks precipitating a real estate crash. But even the lesser evil – an overly sharp slowdown in economic activity – could pose a risk for Xi Jinping because in order for him to cement his hold on power as president for life, he needs to secure key personnel promotions to the party’s inner circle at the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in 2022. An economy in free fall would hardly be helpful to that end. So, once again, pragmatism appears destined to outweigh ideology (as is the standard political practice in China). This means that reform efforts in the months ahead are likely to be calibrated in a way to safeguard economic stability.
Geopolitical developments do not stop at the gates of the financial markets. On the contrary, they have become an increasingly important influencing variable in recent years. Our Satellite View takes a look at the major hotspots at the moment.
Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - November 2021
7
Asset Allocation
Notes from the Investment Committee
The motto “buy the dip” once again held sway on equity markets in October. From a purely seasonal standpoint, there’s a lot suggesting that stock prices look set to climb higher until year-end. Macroeconomic risks and side effects will probably continue to be tuned out for the time being.
Asset Allocation Monitor -
+
-
Cash
Equities
Fixed Income
Global
Sovereign bonds
Switzerland
Corporate bonds
Europe
Microfinance
UK
Inflation-linked bonds
USA
High-yield bonds
Emerging markets
Emerging-market bonds
Alternative Assets
Insurance-linked bonds
Gold
Convertible bonds
Real estate
Duration
Hedge funds
Currencies
Structured products
US dollar
Private equity
+
Swiss franc Euro British pound
Scorecard Macro
+ 10/2021
Equites: Well-trained reflexes • The autumnal storm on the equity markets was of Monetary/fiscal policy Corporate earnings exceptionally short duration this year. Once again, Valuation investors used the setback in early October to do Trend some buying – after all, the reflexes needed to 10/2021 Investor sentiment buy the dip had gotten sufficient practice over the course of this year. But jokes (and sarcasm) aside, the recent developments fit with the (statistical) those companies with feeble pricing power. More picture. We have expressly pointed out the power than ever, investment success in the near future of momentum more than once in this space. In this is likely to come down to having a good individual sense, given the robust price momentum in the first stock and sector allocation. Cyclical (value) stocks half of this year (and since the coronavirus trough that thrive in a climate of rising market interest in March 2020), what to be expected wasn’t an rates should be given a rightful place in portfolios. abrupt trend reversal, but rather a continued benign tendency. The question now, though, is how much Fixed income: Fear barometer for bonds near yearhigher equity markets can climb in the face of weak- to-date high ening economic growth dynamics, mounting price • The persistently and partly surprisingly high inflation pressure and impending tapering by the US Federal rates have left deep marks on fixed-income markets Reserve. in recent weeks in the form of nervousness and price • The well-advanced third-quarter reporting season declines. The MOVE index, which is also referred to provides at least a partial answer to that question. as a fear gauge for the US Treasury bond market, Although most companies exceeded expectations has climbed back into close vicinity of its year-toby a wide margin, as they did in previous quardate high hit in March. At the same time, yields on ters, the ones that disappointed were punished long-term US Treasurys have risen significantly, just severely this time (with share-price losses), which like they did at the start of this year. This has been indicates that investors have become very sensitive accompanied by corresponding price dips for holdto negative surprises. Unpleasant surprises could ers of government debt securities on both sides of become more frequent, though, in the months the Atlantic because German and Swiss benchmark ahead because supply bottlenecks and upward yields have also risen considerably since August and wage pressures are bound to hurt the earnings of have even already reached new year-to-date highs. 8
Monthly Market Monitor - November 2021 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG
Investors holding 10-year notes in all three markets Currencies: Euro at an interest-rate disadvantage are down around 4% year-to-date as of end-October. • EUR/USD: The adherents of a “transitory inflation” outlook among Anglo-American central bankers have This year thus threatens to become the worst one for gradually capitulated, but monetary policy doves conbonds since 1999. Although US Treasurys, German tinue to dominate within the ranks of the European Bunds and Swiss Confederation bonds have now beCentral Bank, which is the farthest away from reachcome a bit “cheaper” again, we think the nominal ing its inflation target despite the recent rise in infla(and especially the real) yields on sovereign bonds tion rates. Against this backdrop, even the initial ECB remain unattractive despite the correction, so we rate hike priced in for 2023 appears overly optimistic, continue to recommend underweighting them. Incompletely in contrast to the two quarter-point rate terest-bearing alternatives such as microfinance and hikes that the Fed is currently expected to implement insurance-linked bonds and private credit promise a in 2022, which portend a strengthening of the greenbetter risk/reward tradeoff, in our view. back. But since market participants have accordingly positioned themselves for that by now, the dollar’s upAlternative assets: Private assets in times of ward tendency may lack momentum in the near term. elevated inflation • Private equity managers definitely didn’t have sum- • GBP/USD: The Bank of England may become the third G10 central bank to tighten the interest-rate screw, mer doldrums to complain about this year. The deal following in the footsteps of Norges Bank (Norway) flow remained brisk even at mid-year, and the secand the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Two months tor is on its way to wrapping up a new record year ago, an initial rate hike didn’t seem realistic until the for 2021. Whoever presumes to detect certain signs middle of next year, but now it appears more than likeof overheating in the current market environment ly to happen even before this year is over. Interest-rate will find sufficient fuel for his or her suspicions, be speculation has recently been benefiting the British it Blackstone’s announcement of a new USD 30 bilpound. Our models remain bullish on the currency for lion (!) flagship buyout fund or the massive valuation the months ahead. leaps registered by some high-tech unicorns. But it’s not only next to impossible to time the market with • EUR/CHF: The EUR/CHF exchange rate tumbled in October to a new year-to-date low beneath the 1.07 private-market investments, it’s also advisable to mark. But in contrast to August, there were no signs not even try to do that. That’s why investors should of intervention by the Swiss National Bank this time. stick to their private-market allocations (and regular Since a stronger franc is justified by the fundamentals capital commitments) even in exuberant times. Parand is increasingly warranted by inflation differentials ticularly amid a potentially imminent (and long inex(read more on that in the “Theme in Focus” article), istent) environment of elevated inflation and tighter the SNB may perhaps have become a bit more tolermonetary policy, private markets historically have exant of CHF appreciation in the meantime. But maybe hibited a more attractive return profile than publicly the US Treasury Department’s upcoming report on traded stocks. However, those who wish to benefit the monetary policy practices of the USA’s biggest from the inflation protection and the above-average trade partners due out toward the end of this year is returns that private markets offer also have to take also playing a role here – the SNB doesn’t necessarily their illiquidity into account. Earplugs and blinders want to get branded as a currency manipulator. help to block out the current private equity hype.
There has been significant movement in government bond markets in recent weeks, particularly at the short end of the yield curve, which reacts especially sensitively to central-bank monetary policy. After the governor of the Bank of England in October signaled a need to take action soon in light of a jump in inflation rates, 2-year yields in the United Kingdom rose substantially as the financial market priced in multiple rate hikes over the next several months all at once, viewing the BoE as a first mover among the world’s major central banks. However, the current market expectations also imply that after a series of hikes over the next two years, interest rates could then get cut again afterwards (because the economy will already be weakening by then). This would be a classical monetary policy error of the kind last committed by the European Central Bank in 2011.
Chart in the Spotlight Is the BoE committing a monetary policy error? | Markets are pricing in hasty rate hikes Yield on 2-year government bonds
Sources: Bloomberg, Kaiser Partner Privatbank
Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - November 2021
9
Theme in Focus How long until parity?
Constant inflation differentials… …make the franc strong The persistently (and partly surprisingly) high inflation Switzerland is a textbook example of a typical “Country data continue to fray tempers not just among financial an- A.” For decades, inflation in the Swiss Confederation has alysts, but increasingly also among consumers. Fewer and mostly been lower than inflation in its most important fewer experts believe that the current burst of inflation is trading partner countries. The inflation gap versus the Eumerely a temporary phenomenon – the “inflation tran- rozone, for example, has widened since 2009 by 17% as sitionistas” camp is rapidly shrinking. Nerves are bound measured by consumer prices and by 25% as gauged by to be raw or at least severely under strain even among producer prices. This “law of nature” hasn’t changed at all some central bankers in light of the stickiness of the high this year even in the midst of the “perfect inflation storm.” (and increasingly broader-based) inflation. It’s ultimately And a look into the crystal ball doesn’t augur anything difno secret that central banks, too, haven’t yet really fig- ferent in the future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) itself ured out the mechanisms of inflation and how to predict projects an inflation rate of “just” 0.6% for 2023. The Eurothem. Meanwhile, inflation data, and especially inflation pean Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve, on the othdifferentials between different countries, also have rel- er hand, see a “1” or “2” in front of the decimal point for evance for currency markets. If, for example, inflation in the next two years. The SNB’s assertion recently reiterated “Country A” stays lower than inflation in “Country B” for a in September that the Swiss franc remains “highly valued” lengthy period, then ceteris paribus, the real exchange corresponds less and less with the inflation picture with rate of “Country A’s” currency declines. This means that each passing day, at least when we look at the relations “Currency A” buys less in “Country B” than before – its pur- versus the euro and the US dollar. Based on purchasing chasing power decreases. Since the real external value of parity indices calculated by Bloomberg, the franc has actua currency (under simplified assumptions) should fluctu- ally become slightly undervalued by now against both of ate around a certain equilibrium value over the long run, those currencies, at least on the basis of producer prices. it takes an equalizer valve to correct large deviations. This corrective is the nominal exchange rate, which in the case When will the SNB lower its EUR/CHF intervention of “Country A” must rise over the long term to preserve threshold? the purchasing power of “Currency A.” But to be equitable and to avoid succumbing to confirmation bias, one must add that the Bloomberg analysis based on consumer prices backs the SNB’s assertion and appraises the franc as being a bit above its “fair value” against the Richly valued?| At least not on the basis of producer prices euro. Nevertheless, the EUR/CHF exchange-rate fair value Euro vs. Swiss franc and purchasing power parity (based on producer price indices) is decreasing in front of our eyes as a result of the continual inflation differential, and the same goes for the SNB’s exchange-rate index over the last 12 months. Moreover, there is also anecdotal evidence – complaints about an overly strong franc from the Swiss manufacturing sector have more or less fallen silent in any case. So, it’s definitely warranted to ask how long the SNB intends to continue intervening on the currency market. Our expectation is that as long as “exchange-rate management” can be done on 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 the cheap and costs “only” a few billion francs (like most «fair value» EUR/CHF recently in August), the benefits of intervening outweigh the potential drawbacks. However, the risk/reward reasoning gets out of whack if significantly more money eventually becomes necessary to fund currency interventions. In the meantime, over the longer term the SNB could (and should) lower its EUR/CHF “pain threshold” in view of the 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 inflation differentials that are expected to persist in the over-/undervaluation future, because the continual accumulation of risk on the Sources: Bloomberg, Kaiser Partner Privatbank SNB’s balance sheet is ever less justified as time goes on. The Swiss National Bank (SNB), staying true to its mantra, continues to call the franc “highly valued.” But like so many things, a currency valuation is a matter of perspective (or the model employed). In any case, the value of Switzerland’s currency (against the euro) actually is almost cheap, at least on the basis of purchasing power parity.
10
Monthly Market Monitor - November 2021 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG
Drawdown: All about private banking Why losses are so "expensive"
Investors who play the stock market on their own to USD 50, a subsequent 50% rally lifts it only to USD The human brain isn’t definitely don’t have it easy. The amount of available 75. The percentage gain needs to double (to +100%) wired to operate and data, analyses and news has increased massively in to get back to USD 100. If a stock price plunges 80%, maneuver tactically recent years, and as a result, investors these days it afterwards needs to climb 400%(!) to get back to on financial markets. are confronted with a veritable flood of information. breakeven. Psychology plays pranks Alongside this relatively recent phenomenon, there on investors from time is also another obstacle – the human psyche – that Therefore, whoever consistently limits his or her to time, and (financial) regularly stands in the way of investment success. losses lays a key foundation stone for long-term in- mathematics can also be “Buy low and sell high” is something that everyone vestment success. (That’s why we actively manage tricky. would like to do, but this countercyclical mode of risk and investment positions in our asset manageinvestment behavior usually goes against our in- ment mandates.) Although every investment needs stincts. We prefer to wait for a stock price to rise as sufficient “room to breathe,” it nonetheless makes a confirmation before buying. And again when we sense to define a maximum allowable drawdown for sell stocks, our timing (especially that of less expe- each portfolio position and to systematically secure rienced investors) is likewise oftentimes bad, and in it with a stop-loss order. This should largely avert the worst case we sell in a state of panic close to a catastrophic losses that are near impossible to restock’s low point. Our good intention thus unfortu- coup, even with extreme patience, due to accursed nately all too frequently ends up devolving into “buy financial mathematics. For investors who manage high and sell low.” their portfolios themselves, Yuletide is a good time not only to devise a loss-limiting strategy for 2022, The pitfalls of investor psychology therefore shouldn’t but to also separate the wheat from the chaff. If this be underestimated. In this context, the stock market “inventory” turns up proverbial horses that already adage to “cut your losses and let your winners run” is bolted the stable before you could close the gate one of the sagest maxims. But adhering to it is much (i.e. if it turns up positions in stocks with book losses easier said than done because cutting losses and let- greater than 25%–30%), you shouldn’t automatically ting winners run once again goes against what our in- pull the ripcord. In such cases, investors should instincts tell us to do. In reality, we are actually subject stead ask themselves whether they would reinvest to the disposition effect – we take profits too soon in each of those companies at today’s share prices and let losers run. Why? Because pocketing gains based on the information currently available. doesn’t just reinforce our self-confidence and give us bragging rights, but is also an act of finality and ends Accursed mathematics | Investors with pocket calculators are clearly at an advantage the risk of an investment. Holding onto losing posi- Scenario analysis: Losses and the subsequent gains needed to get back to breakeven tions, on the other hand, preserves the (oft-futile) hope of a price rebound and averts having to admit Loss Gain needed a potential (investment) error. That’s why (retail) investors much more prefer to hoard a “cemetery of -10% 11% corpses” in their securities portfolios. -20% 25% The reason why it’s so important to overcome typical human tendencies and rigorously cut losses is explained in another, less-known stock market maxim that was coined by André Kostolany († 1999): “You can win, you can lose, but it is impossible to win back.” This somewhat awkward adage harbors an essential mathematical truth (that unfortunately is not entirely intuitive): the greater the preceding loss, the (disproportionately) higher the subsequent gain must be get back to the original acquisition price. If a stock price, for example, drops 50% from USD 100
-30%
43%
-40%
67%
-50%
100%
-60%
150%
-70%
233%
-80%
400%
-90%
900%
Source: Kaiser Partner Privatbank
Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - November 2021
11
The Back Page Asset classes & agenda
Performance as of 31 October 2021 Asset class
YTD
1 Month
1 Year
3 Years
Cash CHF
-0.1%
-0.7%
-2.0%
EUR
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.3%
USD
0.0%
0.2%
3.7%
Sovereign bonds
-0.3%
-2.4%
8.8%
Corporate bonds
0.1%
1.7%
21.0% 10.0%
Fixed Income
Microfinance
0.5%
3.4%
Inflation-linked bonds
1.9%
6.0%
24.6%
-0.3%
9.1%
20.8%
High-yield bonds Emerging-market bonds
0.0%
4.2%
21.6%
Insurance-linked bonds
0.2%
4.9%
13.2%
Convertible bonds Equities
2.6%
26.2%
68.5%
Global
5.5%
40.4%
63.2%
Switzerland
4.1%
28.4%
42.9%
Europe
4.1%
43.7%
39.5%
UK
2.3%
35.6%
11.5%
US
6.9%
42.7%
80.0%
Emerging markets
0.9%
14.6%
32.3%
Alternative assets Commodities
2.6%
43.9%
24.2%
Gold
1.5%
-5.1%
46.8%
Real estate Switzerland
-3.7%
13.1%
35.1%
Hedge funds
0.9%
10.1%
18.2%
Currencies EUR/USD
-0.2%
-0.8%
2.2%
EUR/CHF
-1.9%
-0.9%
-7.2%
GBP/USD
1.5%
5.7%
7.2%
On our Agenda November 17: World Philosophy Day Any investor on the move in the fast-paced, information-drenched world of financial markets should treat him or herself to a time-out every now and then. A good occasion for doing that is World Philosophy Day, which invites people around the globe to engage in a collective exercise in free, reasoned and informed thinking on the major challenges of our time. November 26 and 29: Black Friday and Cyber Monday Are consumers in a shopping mood? The end of this month will provide an answer to that question because the day after Thanksgiving is Black Friday, which traditionally rings in the Christmas shopping season. Cyber Monday follows right on the heels of Thanksgiving weekend. December 1: Our Advent calendar Christmastime = Advent calendar time. In December, we will open one little door every day on our website until Christmas Eve. We’ll take a behind-the-scenes look at Kaiser Partner Privatbank, we’ll present our financial market outlook for 2022, and a whole lot more… Get ready for some surprises!
12
Monthly Market Monitor - November 2021 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG
Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG | Monthly Market Monitor - November 2021
13
This document constitutes neither a financial analysis nor an advertisement. It is intended solely for informational purposes. None of the information contained herein constitutes a solicitation or recommendation by Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG to purchase or sell a financial instrument or to take any other actions regarding any financial instruments. Furthermore, the information contained herein does not constitute investment advice. Any references in this document to past performance are no guarantee of a positive future performance. Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG assumes no liability for the completeness, correctness or currentness of the information contained herein or for any losses or damages arising from any actions taken on the basis of the information in this document. All contents of this document are protected by intellectual property law, particularly by copyright law. The reprinting or reproduction of all or any parts of this document in any way or form for public or commercial purposes is expressly prohibited unless prior written consent has been explicitly granted by Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG.
14
Monthly Market Monitor - November 2021 | Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG
Publisher:
Kaiser Partner Privatbank AG Herrengasse 23, Postfach 725 FL-9490 Vaduz, Liechtenstein HR-Nr. FL-0001.018.213-7 T: +423 237 80 00, F: +423 237 80 01 E: bank@kaiserpartner.com
Editorial Team:
Oliver Hackel, Senior Investment Strategist Roman Pfranger, Head Private Banking & Investment Solutions Cornelia Kopf, Marketing Specialist, 21iLAB AG
Design & Print:
21iLAB AG, Vaduz, Liechtenstein
DE210312
kaiserpartner.bank