NEWS a life well planned is a life well lived
The Captain’s Log Spring 2019
Welcome to the spring of 2019. This year, along the east coast of Virginia, we have had the great fortune of enjoying a mild, warm and unseasonably wet winter season. Now, as March has arrived, we are all cheering for the inevitable arrival of warmth and summer. The change of the season has become palatable. With the arrival of spring 2019, it is appropriate to remember that exactly 10 years ago, during March of 2009, the stock market bottomed and the U.S. economy somehow veered out of what appeared at the time to be the inevitable death spiral brought on by the collapse of the housing market. Exactly 10 years prior to that, during the late 1990’s, we were collectively enjoying the bountiful irrational exuberances of the tech bubble. Remember those years? The beckoning of an avant-garde era with a promised new economic model coupled with the bountiful and limitless prosperity of “clicks
and ships”. Alas! Here we are today, the spring of 2019, 20 short years removed from the tech bubble and 10 hardly discernable years removed from the housing market bubble. One decade removed from the 2009 stock market crash, we continue to enjoy the benefits of one of the longest bull market runs in American history. As we look through 2019 and beyond, are we presently overpriced, underpriced, or should we even care? As informed and proactive investors should we with confidence be “risk-on” with our investment assets or is now the time to protect our pennies, head to the barn, and begin looking towards hedging away our exposure and opportunity. (continued on next page)
What’s Inside: The Captain’s Log Retirement Timeline Helping You Stay on Track Ways the Middle Class Can Make a Difference For Charity Tolerate the Turbulence Stay Focused for Your Long-term Objectives Spring Cleaning Quarterly Update Recipe Corner
A MESSAGE FROM CLAYTON Your Trusted Advisor
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With a present-day market price to earnings valuation near 14, at this point in the investment cycle we cannot discount the undeniable benefits given to corporate America by the Federal Reserve’s twodecade period of interest rate experimentation and accommodation. The extended 20-year era of loose fiscal policy provided corporations ample opportunity to conduct radical financial reengineering. Our current economic expansion, accelerating GDP growth, improving labor market, and forward corporate earnings growth expectations continue to glide effortlessly on the tailwinds of the Federal Reserve’s combined simulative responses to the economic challenges of the first decade of the 21st century. How much longer can these tailwinds push our economy to new heights and continue to facilitate the current environment of stock market prosperity and expansion? We all agree the current period of market expansion appears to be “on borrowed time” and “long in the tooth”, but in discernable terms, what exactly does it mean to be "on borrowed time"?
CLAYTON JAMES FINANCIAL ADVISOR
These are infinitely complex questions, and no one really knows where the stock market or the U.S. economy moves from here.
What we do know, with exacting certainty, is the U.S. economic engine continues to grind out competitive advantages and market opportunities, and these advantages come to us in the form of innovation and productivity gains. As investors, we consciously vote daily to believe in capitalism and to trust in the longterm value capitalism brings to the world and to our individual balance sheets. Much like the seasonality of spring in Virginia, the U.S. economy and the stock market will sometimes make us feel as if we are stuck in winter, but if we persevere, the inevitability of warm summer afternoons is never too far from reach. My very best to you and your family and I hope everyone has a fantastic spring and early summer. Clayton W. James, CFM, AAMS Managing Director
Retirement Timeline Helping you stay on track
Retirement planning can be challenging, but creating a timeline can help ensure your savings stay on track. Here are some expert tips for helping to ensure your retirement plans are on schedule at every stage. Set an income goal—and know that it could change. For younger workers, it can be difficult to determine how much income will be needed in retirement and how much their income will increase over their lifetime. Many people start out looking at an income replacement ratio of around 80%. That said, when you’re younger, 80% of your income is not going to be close to 80% of your income at retirement. That will change over time. It’s important to set goals early in your retirement planning process. But be prepared to revisit them frequently as you get closer to retirement—and work with your financial advisor to make your goals as realistic as possible. Plan to increase your savings rate. If you’re 20 years old, a savings goal of 10% of your current salary per year is a good start. By age 30 you should be putting away at least 15% per year. If you have access to a qualified employer-sponsored retirement plan (QRP), such as a 401(k) or 403(b), start there. If your employer offers matching contributions, consider contributing at least as much as the match. This is free money you don’t want to pass up, and it can help you get to the right percentage. At the same time, consider a Roth IRA or, if available, the designated Roth account option in your 401(k) for their potential tax-free distributions. Your savings rate should increase as you age; at the same time, you should explore additional investment options so you’re getting the most benefit now and when you’re in retirement.
difficult factors is estimating how long you can expect to be in retirement. We suggest planning for 20 to 30 years but strongly recommend a contingency plan in case something forces you into an unexpected early retirement, such as health problems, perhaps, or an unforeseen layoff. One way of thinking that can help you get there: Plan to retire at age 55. This will allow you to be prepared for unanticipated events, and any money you make by working past that age will be a bonus. Set the steps to reach your goals. If you’ve gotten a late start on retirement planning, or if you’re rethinking your timeline around a plan to retire at age 55, there are effective actions you can take now to help pursue your goals. Keeping a budget is essential. As part of that budgeting, be sure to look at your discretionary spending. If you’ve been supporting children through college, once they become independent, it might be tempting to reallocate that money to exotic travel or home renovations— but it’s your retirement fund that should get the first deposit. No matter when you start, planning a retirement timeline is effective only if you budget for saving—and stick with that budget. Your financial advisor can help guide this conversation. A final tip for those in their 60s: You may want to withdraw money earlier than you think. If the bulk of your money is in qualified retirement plans or IRAs, most of the money you’ll receive in retirement is taxable—you can even bump yourself into a higher tax bracket. At age 70½, retired minimum distributions (RMDs) kick in, so if you’re retired at age 62, for example, take some money out then—this will lessen the impact of larger distributions later on.
Sketch out how long you could be in retirement. When creating a retirement timeline, one of the most / 4
Ways the Middle Class Can Make a Difference for Charity You don’t need to be wealthy to make an impact and get a win-win.
Do you have to make a multimillion-dollar gift to a charity to receive immediate or future financial benefits? No. If you’re not yet a millionaire or simply a “millionaire next door,” yet want to give, consider the following options, which may bring you immediate or future tax deductions. Partnership gifts. These gifts are made via long-term arrangements between donors and recipient charities or non-profits, usually with income resulting for the donor and an eventual transfer of the principal to the charity at the donor’s death. For example, a charitable remainder trust (CRT) may be structured to provide a beneficiary (i.e., you) with cash flow for a defined number of years, even for life. After the end of the trust term (or your death), the remaining trust principal passes to charity, or in some cases, to a family foundation. You could even name a CRT as the beneficiary of your IRA as part of your estate planning strategy. In fact, some charities and universities will now administer a CRT you create for free if the remaining trust principal is designated for that charity or university’s investment or endowment fund. A charitable lead trust (CLT) makes annual charitable gifts on your behalf, for a set number of years; if structured and executed properly, the trust beneficiaries (i.e., your heirs) can eventually receive the leftover trust assets without having to pay estate or gift taxes on them.1,2 If you don’t have enough funds to start one of these, you might opt to invest some of your assets in a pooled income fund offered by a university or charity. In a pooled income fund, your gifted assets go into a “pool” of assets invested by a fund manager; as a donor, you are assigned “units” in the fund proportionate to your share of the fund’s total assets. In turn, you get a proportionate share of the income of the fund for life, and when your last income beneficiary passes away, the principal of your gift goes to the school or charity.3 If you like the idea of a family foundation, but don’t quite have the money and don’t want the bureaucracy, you could consider setting up a donor-advised fund. Essentially, this is a charitable savings account. You make an irrevocable contribution to a third-party fund, realizing an immediate tax deduction for the year of the gift; the fund invests the money in an account you create, where it grows without being taxed. You can request where the / 5
charitable donations from the DAF go, and you have a say in how you want the funds in the DAF invested, but the DAF makes the actual donations to non-profits and has the legal control over these matters.1,4 Lifetime gifts. These are charitable gifts in which the donor retains no powers or other controls over the gift once it is made. The gift is irrevocable, or in federal tax terms, “complete.” A lifetime gift of this sort is not included in what the Internal Revenue Service calls your Gross Estate (but taxable gifts are used in calculation of estate tax).5
Would you like to learn more? Now is as good a time as any to do so. Your charitable gifting can have real impact even if you don’t have a fortune. Keep in mind that your unique circumstances need to be weighed before making any decision. Please consult me at 757-941-5150 prior to making any move.
Lifetime gifts also include outright gifts of cash or appreciated property, such as stocks or real estate. Thanks to the 2017 federal tax reforms, you can make outright gifts via cash or check and deduct such donations up to 60% of your income. A gift of appreciated property could bring you an income tax deduction for its fair market value and help you avoid the capital gains tax that would result from the sale of the asset.6,7 Through a partial or whole gift of appreciated property, you can transfer a real estate deed to a school or charity and get around capital gains taxes that may result from a property’s sale. You may receive an immediate charitable income tax deduction for the full fair market value of the gifted property, a deduction which you may apply up to 30% of your adjusted gross income. You could even arrange a retained life estate, in which you transfer the title to your home to a charity or non-profit while retaining the right to live in it as your primary residence for the rest of your life.8 Life insurance policies and IRAs. Donating a paid-up life insurance policy to a university or charity may allow you an immediate charitable deduction for the value of the gift. You can also name a charity as the beneficiary of an IRA; upon your death, the full value of the account will transfer to the charity without being subject to federal estate or income taxes.6 The caveats. As your income increases, you may face limits on the amounts of charitable gifts you can deduct. Your charitable deductions for any federal tax year cannot be more than 50% of your adjusted gross income. But if you exceed such limits, the I.R.S. lets you carry forward excess contributions for up to five years.9
Jamestowne Investments is honored to be named to the 2019 Prospera Director's Circle. This recognition is given to the top 25 advisors for their work in the previous year.
Citations. 1 - foundationsource.com/learn-about-foundations/charitable-vehicles/ [9/4/18] 2 - forbes.com/sites/bobcarlson/2018/02/16/how-a-charitable-trust-could-save-your-ira/ [2/16/18] 3 - giftplanning.cmu.edu/how-you-can-give/giving-and-generating-income/pooled-income-fund [9/4/18] 4 - mdmag.com/physicians-money-digest/personal-finance/preserve-tax-deductions-by-using-donor-advised-fundsstrategically [6/19/18] 5 - irs.gov/businesses/small-businesses-self-employed/frequently-asked-questions-on-estate-taxes [5/11/18] 6 - accountingweb.com/practice/clients/10-tax-efficient-ways-clients-can-give-to-charity [6/21/18] 7 - nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/free-books/avoid-probate-book/chapter9-5.html [9/4/18] 8 - supportuw.org/gift-planning/estate-gifts/assets/real-estate/ [9/4/18] 9 - 20somethingfinance.com/irs-maximum-charitable-donation-limit/ [1/2/18]
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Tolerate the Turbulence Look beyond this moment and stay focused on your longterm objectives.
Volatility will always be around on Wall Street, and as you invest for the long term, you must learn to tolerate it. Rocky moments, fortunately, are not the norm. Since the end of World War II, there have been dozens of Wall Street shocks. Wall Street has seen 56 pullbacks (retreats of 5-9.99%) in the past 73 years; the S&P index dipped 6.9% in this last one. On average, the benchmark fully rebounded from these pullbacks within two months. The S&P has also seen 22 corrections (descents of 1019.99%) and 12 bear markets (falls of 20% or more) in the post-WWII era.1 Even with all those setbacks, the S&P has grown exponentially larger. During the month World War II ended (September 1945), its closing price hovered around 16. At this writing, it is above 2,750. Those two numbers communicate the value of staying invested for the long run.2 This current bull market has witnessed five corrections, and nearly a sixth (a 9.8% pullback in 2011, a year that also saw a 19.4% correction). It has risen roughly 335% since its beginning even with those stumbles. Investors who stayed in equities through those downturns watched the major indices soar to all-time highs.1 As all this history shows, waiting out the shocks may be highly worthwhile. The alternative is trying to time the market. That can be a fool’s errand. To succeed at market timing, investors have to be right twice, which is a tall order. Instead of selling in response to paper losses, perhaps they should respond to the fear of missing out on great gains during a recovery and hang on through the choppiness. After all, volatility creates buying opportunities. Shares of quality companies are suddenly available at a discount. Investors effectively pay a lower average cost per share to obtain them. Bad market days shock us because they are uncommon. If pullbacks or corrections occurred regularly, they would discourage many of us from investing in equities; we would look elsewhere to try and build wealth. A decade ago, in the middle of the terrible 2007-09 bear market, some investors convinced themselves that bad days were becoming the new normal. History proved them wrong. / 7
Spring Cleaning Window Washing Recipe by John A. Singleton, Esquire •
Do not wash windows on sunny days it will dry too fast and show streaks.
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Add ½ cup ammonia to ½ cup white vinegar and 2 tablespoons corn starch to a bucket of warm water.
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Wash windows with a cloth soaked in white vinegar for indoor window.
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Shine with newspaper instead of paper towels.
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Dry the inside panes with vertical strokes and the outside panes with horizontal strokes so you can see smudges.
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After the windows are dried rub a clean blackboard eraser over them for a final shine.
As you ride out this current outbreak of volatility, keep two things in mind. One, your time horizon. You are investing for goals that may be five, ten, twenty, or thirty years in the future. One bad market week, month, or year is but a blip on that timeline and is unlikely to have a severe impact on your long-run asset accumulation strategy. Two, remember that there have been more good days on Wall Street than bad ones. The S&P 500 rose in 53.7% of its trading sessions during the years 1950-2017, and it advanced in 68 of the 92 years ending in 2017.3,4 Sudden volatility should not lead you to exit the market. If you react anxiously and move out of equities in response to short-term downturns, you may impede your progress toward your long-term goals.
1 - marketwatch.com/story/if-us-stocks-suffer-another-correction-start-worrying-2018-10-16 [10/16/18] 2 - multpl.com/s-p-500-historical-prices/table/by-month [10/18/18] 3 - crestmontresearch.com/docs/Stock-Yo-Yo.pdf [10/18/18] 4 - icmarc.org/prebuilt/apps/downloadDoc.asp [2/18]
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Quarterly Economic Update THE QUARTER IN BRIEF Wall Street saw many ups and downs in the last three months of 2018. The fourth quarter concluded with bulls and bears vying for control of the market and with the S&P 500 suffering a 13.97%, three-month loss. The Federal Reserve sent conflicting signals about its implementation of monetary policy normalization, to the frustration of investors. No real progress was made in resolving the U.S.-China trade war, and the Brexit appeared to reach a standstill. The price of oil dropped sharply. The housing market gained a bit of momentum as home prices and mortgage rates both declined. The quarter was quite newsworthy, but its major headlines raised some troubling questions about the direction of the markets.1
DOMESTIC ECONOMIC HEALTH On the whole, the economy looked quite good in the fall. Consumer spending increased 0.8% for October and 0.4% for November, with retail sales up 1.1% in the tenth month of the year and 0.2% in the eleventh. Retailers benefited from a great holiday sales season: on an annualized basis, consumer purchases made between November 1 and December 24 were up 5.1% compared to the same period in 2017.2,3 Consumer confidence indices declined from strikingly high levels, but were still notably strong. The Conference Board index hit 137.9 in October, 136.4 in November, and 128.1 in December. Having its best year since 2000, the University of Michigan’s monthly consumer sentiment gauge came in at 98.6 for October, 97.5 for November, and 98.3 for December; it averaged 98.4 for 2018.4,5 Both the service and factory sectors were booming, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s monthly purchasing manager indices. ISM’s nonmanufacturing index was above 60 in both October and November (60.3, then 60.7); its manufacturing index rose from 57.7 in October to 59.3 in November.6
How was the jobs picture? Nonfarm payrolls expanded with 237,000 net new jobs during October; the November gain was 155,000. During both months, average yearly wage growth was at 3.1%. The main jobless rate held at 3.7%; the underemployment (U-6) rate moved north from 7.4% to 7.6%.2,7 Inflation was advancing just 2.2% a year by November; the 12-month increase had approached 3% as recently as July. Falling fuel costs helped tame inflation pressure. As a result, the average non-supervisory worker saw his or her inflation-adjusted income rise 1.0% in the 12 months ending in November, the most since 2016. On the wholesale front, producer prices jumped 0.6% in October, but rose only 0.1% during November. (Speaking of producers, industrial production was up 3.9% year-over-year in November; overall durable goods orders rose 0.8% for November after a 4.3% fall during the prior month.)2,8 In late December, the Bureau of Economic Analysis stated the economy had expanded 3.4% in the third quarter, revising its previous estimate of 3.5%. With growth like that, it not be surprising that the Federal Reserve made its fourth rate move of the year in December, taking the target range on the federal funds rate to 2.25-2.5%. Top Fed officials sounded alternately dovish and hawkish during the fourth quarter. In October, Fed chair Jerome Powell commented that interest rates were “a long way” from neutral, irritating Wall Street. A month later, both he and Fed vice chair Richard Clarida remarked that the benchmark interest rate was close to a “neutral” level. December’s rate increase came with a relatively hawkish dot-plot, projecting two more hikes in 2019.2,9 The U.S. and China did little to address the tariffs they had imposed on each other earlier in the year. At the start of December, both nations did agree to a 90-day truce on introducing new import taxes. Even so, the U.S. was slated to
GLOBAL ECONOMIC HEALTH Wall Street saw many ups and downs in the last three months of 2018. The fourth quarter concluded with bulls and bears vying for control of the market and
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with the S&P 500 suffering a 13.97%, three-month loss. The Federal Reserve sent conflicting signals about its implementation of monetary policy normalization, to the frustration of investors. No real progress was made in resolving the U.S.-China trade war, and the Brexit appeared to reach a standstill. The price of oil dropped sharply. The housing market gained a bit of momentum as home prices and mortgage rates both declined. The quarter was quite newsworthy, but its major headlines raised some troubling questions about the direction of the markets.1
WORLD MARKETS As bearish sentiment mounted in Q4, marquee equity indices steadily descended. Most of the 13-week declines were sizable: in the west, France’s CAC 40 slid 13.89%; Germany’s DAX, 13.80%; the United Kingdom’s FTSE 100, 10.41%. In the east, India’s Sensex lost just 0.44%; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, 6.99%; Japan’s Nikkei 225, 17.02%; Australia’s All Ordinaries, 9.74%; China’s Shanghai Composite, 11.61%. To our north, the TSX Composite retreated 10.89% in Q4. MSCI’s Emerging Markets index fell 7.85% during the quarter; its World index tumbled 13.74%.14,15
COMMODITIES MARKETS While equities had a dismal quarter, some commodity futures posted significant Q4 gains. Take cocoa, which advanced 16.04%, and palladium, which rose 12.32%. Sugar improved 7.41% in Q4; gold, 6.61%; silver, 4.86%; soybeans, 2.68%; corn, 1.90%. The U.S. Dollar Index added 1.62%. At the closing bell on December 31, gold and silver were respectively worth $1,284.50 and $15.54 per ounce on the COMEX.16,17 What notable commodities lost value in the quarter? Here is a list. Platinum fell 3.22%; coffee, 3.78%; wheat, 4.55%; natural gas, 4.70%; cotton, 6.59%; copper, 6.63%; RBOB gasoline, 37.41%; WTI crude, 37.54%. WTI crude ended Q4 at just $45.83 a barrel on the NYMEX.16,17
REAL ESTATE While the real estate market cooled off in 2018, the pace of home buying began to improve in the fourth quarter. By the estimations of the National Association of Realtors, existing home sales rose 1.4%
in October and 1.9% in November. Perhaps sellers were lowering prices to meet prospective buyers on their turf. By November, NAR noted a median sale price of $257,700, which was merely 4.2% higher than in November 2017.2,18 A dip in mortgage rates could also have been a factor. In the last Freddie Mac survey of 2018 (December 27), the average interest rate for a conventional home loan was 4.55% nationally; it had been 4.72% three months earlier. (Rates on 15-year, fixed loans and 5/1-year, adjustable loans were respectively at 4.01% and 4.00% in the December 27 survey, compared with 4.16% and 3.97% in late September.)19 Even so, NAR’s pending home sales index measuring monthly housing contract activity showed declines of 2.6% in October and 0.7% in November. New home purchases fell 8.9% in October. (We do not yet know about November new home sales, as the release of that Census Bureau report was delayed due to the federal government shutdown.)2 Home builders broke less ground in October, then started more projects (and took out more permits) in November. Census Bureau data showed housing starts down 1.6% for October, up 3.2% a month later; building permits were down 0.4% in the tenth month of the year, but up 5.0% in the eleventh.2
LOOKING BACK, LOOKING FORWARD The fourth quarter is often hot for stocks, but this past one was ice cold. Equity investors grew concerned about the Federal Reserve’s plans for 2019, the evident economic deceleration in China and Europe, and a narrowing spread between long-term and short-term Treasury yields that risked becoming an inversion. The S&P 500 closed out 2018 at 2,506.85; the Dow Jones Industrial Average, at 23,327.46; the Nasdaq Composite, at 6,635.28; their quarterly performances are noted in the table below. The CBOE VIX volatility index surged 109.74% in the quarter to 25.42.1,9 If you are wondering how the small caps fared, the short answer is: even worse than the big three. The S&P SmallCap 600 lost 20.43% in Q4; the Russell 2000, 19.39%.1,20 (continued on next page)
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MARKET INDEX
YTD CHG
Q4 CHANGE
Q3 CHANGE
DIJA
-5.63
-11.83
9.01
NASDAQ
-3.88
-17.54
7.14
S&P 500
-6.24
-13.97
7.20
YIELD
12/31 RATE
1 MO AGO
1 YRAGO
10 YR TIPS
2.69
3.01
2.40
Sources: barchart.com, wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 12/31/181,21,22 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.
The fourth quarter of 2018 was the poorest quarter on Wall Street in 11 years. Was the welcomed, large-cap rebound at the end of December a hint of better times ahead? Earnings season is about to start, and it might be just what the Street needs; before it begins, investors may tread cautiously. Wall Street cannot “resume normal programming” fast enough for some market participants, but the path toward stability may not be an easy one; the volatility seen in December may take weeks to moderate. In sum, 2019 presents investors with many more uncertainties than 2018 did, and patience will be required to contend with them. Patience, in fact, may be an investor’s greatest friend this quarter and year.23 This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs, or expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in indices. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. The CAC-40 Index is a narrow-based, modified capitalization-weighted index of 40 companies listed on the Paris Bourse. The DAX 30 is a Blue Chip stock market index consisting of the 30 major German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The FTSE 100 Index is a share index of the 100 most highly capitalized companies listed on the London Stock Exchange. BSE Sensex or Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitivity Index is a value-weighted index composed of 30 stocks that started January 1, 1986. Nikkei 225 (Ticker: ^N225) is a stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE). The Nikkei average is the most watched index of Asian stocks. The Hang Seng Index is a free floatadjusted market capitalization-weighted stock market index that is the main indicator of the overall market performance in Hong Kong. The All Ordinaries (XAO) is considered a total market barometer for the Australian stock market and contains the 500 largest ASX-listed companies by way of market capitalization. The SSE Composite Index is an index of all stocks (A shares and B shares) that are traded at the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The S&P/TSX Composite Index is an index of the stock (equity) prices of the largest companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) as measured by market capitalization. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index consisting of indices in more than 25 emerging economies. The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index that includes developed world markets and does not include emerging markets. The CBOE Volatility Index® is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices. The S&P SmallCap 600® measures the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity market. The Russell 2000 Index is a small-cap stock market index of the bottom 2,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. CITATIONS: 1 - barchart.com/stocks/indices?viewName=performance [1/1/19] 2 - investing.com/economic-calendar/ [12/28/18] 3 - cbsnews.com/news/2018-holiday-sales-soar-to-6-year-high/ [12/20/18] 4 - investing.com/economic-calendar/cb-consumer-confidence-48 [12/27/18] 5 - tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence [12/27/18] 6 - instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm?SSO=1 [12/6/18] 7 - bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-07/u-s-payrolls-rise-below-forecast-155-000-as-wage-gain-misses [12/7/18] 8 - marketwatch.com/story/cheaper-gas-tamps-down-consumer-inflation-in-november-cpi-shows-2018-12-12 [12/12/18] 9 - forbes.com/sites/jjkinahan/2018/12/19/hawkish-now-dovish-later-fed-hikes-but-lowers-projected-2019-rate-projections [12/19/18] 10 - scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2179505/us-china-trade-war-timeline-first-tariffs-90-day-truce [12/26/18] 11 - bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-27/december-early-indicators-show-china-slowed-for-a-seventh-month [12/27/18] 12 - nasdaq.com/article/british-ministers-split-over-next-brexit-steps-if-pms-deal-fails-20181220-00145 [12/20/18] 13 - tinyurl.com/ycbvf56h [12/28/18] 14 - news.morningstar.com/index/indexReturn.html [12/31/18] 15 - msci.com/end-of-day-data-search [12/31/18] 16 - barchart.com/futures/performance-leaders?viewName=chart&timeFrame=3m [12/31/18] 17 - money.cnn.com/data/commodities/ [12/31/18] 18 - cleveland.com/business/2018/12/ohio-us-home-sales-down-in-november-from-last-years-levels.html [12/19/18] 19 - freddiemac.com/pmms/archive.html [1/1/19] 20 - money.cnn.com/data/markets/russell/?page=33 [1/1/19] 21 - quotes.wsj.com/index/SPX [9/28/18] 22 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [12/31/18] 23 - cnbc.com/2018/12/31/stock-market-wall-street-stocks-eye-us-china-trade-talks.html [12/31/18]
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Recipe corner Spring Green Risotto Submitted by Amy Berry Herron - sister of Ginger James
Ingredients 1 1/2 tablespoons good olive oil 1 1/2 tablespoons unsalted butter 3 cups chopped leeks, white and light green parts (2 leeks) 1 cup chopped fennel 1 1/2 cups Arborio rice 2/3 cup dry white wine 4 to 5 cups simmering chicken stock, preferably homemade 1 lb. thin asparagus 10 ounces frozen peas, defrosted, or 1 1/2 cups shelled fresh peas 1 tablespoon freshly grated lemon zest (2 lemons) Kosher salt and freshly ground black pepper 2 tablespoons freshly squeezed lemon juice 1/3 cup mascarpone cheese, preferably Italian 1/2 cup freshly grated Parmesan, plus extra for serving 3 tablespoons minced fresh chives, plus extra for serving
Preparation Heat the olive oil and butter in a medium saucepan over medium heat. Add the leeks and fennel and saute for 5 to 7 minutes, until tender. Add the rice and stir for a minute to coat with the vegetables, oil, and butter. Add the white wine and simmer over low heat, stirring constantly, until most of the wine has been absorbed. Add the chicken stock, 2 ladles at a time, stirring almost constantly and waiting for the stock to be absorbed before adding more. This process should take 25 to 30 minutes. Meanwhile, cut the asparagus diagonally in 1 1/2-inch lengths and discard the tough ends. Blanch in boiling salted water for 4 to 5 minutes, until al dente. Drain and cool immediately in ice water. (If using fresh peas, blanch them in boiling water for a few minutes until the starchiness is gone.) When the risotto has been cooking for 15 minutes, drain the asparagus and add it to the risotto with the peas, lemon zest, 2 teaspoons salt, and 1 teaspoon pepper. Continue cooking and adding stock, stirring almost constantly, until the rice is tender but still firm.Whisk the lemon juice and mascarpone together in a small bowl. When the risotto is done, turn off the heat and stir in the mascarpone mixture plus the Parmesan cheese and chives. Set aside, off the heat, for a few minutes, sprinkle with salt and pepper, and serve hot with a sprinkling of chives and more Parmesan cheese. We serve with roasted chicken (see recipe on next page).
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Perfect Roast Chicken Submitted by Katy Berry Sierk - sister of Ginger James
Ingredients 1 six-pound roasting chicken 2 tablespoons unsalted butter Salt and freshly ground black pepper 2 medium onions, peeled and sliced crosswise 1/2 inch thick 2 lemons 3 large cloves garlic, peeled
Preparation 1. Let chicken and 1 tablespoon butter stand at room temperature for 30 minutes. Preheat oven to 425 degrees. Remove and discard the plastic pop-up timer from chicken if there is one. Remove the giblets and excess fat from the chicken cavity. Rinse chicken inside and out under cold running water. Dry chicken thoroughly with paper towels. Tuck the wing tips under the body. Sprinkle the cavity of the chicken liberally with salt and pepper and set aside. 2. In the center of a heavy-duty roasting pan, place onion slices in two rows, touching. Place the palm of your hand on top of lemon and, pressing down, roll lemon back and forth several times. This softens the lemon and allows the juice to flow more freely. Pierce entire surface of lemon with a fork. Using the side of a large knife, gently press on garlic cloves to open slightly. Insert garlic cloves, thyme sprigs, and lemon into cavity. Place chicken in pan, on onion slices. Cut about 18 inches of kitchen twine, bring chicken legs forward, cross them, and tie together. 3. Spread the softened butter over entire surface of chicken, and sprinkle liberally with salt and pepper. Place in the oven, and roast until skin is deep golden brown and crisp and the juices run clear when pierced, about 1 1/2 hours. When chicken seems done, insert an instant-read thermometer into the breast, then the thigh. The breast temperature should read 180 degrees and the thigh 190 degrees. 4. Remove chicken from oven, and transfer to a cutting board with a well. Let chicken stand 10 to 15 minutes so the juices settle. Meanwhile, pour the pan drippings into a shallow bowl or fat separator, and leave onions in the pan. Leave any brown baked-on bits in the bottom of the roasting pan and remove and discard any blackened bits. Using a large spoon or fat separator, skim off and discard as much fat as possible. Pour the remaining drippings and the juices that have collected under the resting chicken back into the roasting pan. Place on the stove over medium-high heat to cook, about 1 minute. Add chicken stock, raise heat to high, and, using a wooden spoon, stir up and combine the brown bits with the stock until the liquid is reduced by half, about 4 minutes. Strain the gravy into a small bowl, pressing on onions to extract any liquid. Discard onions and stir in the remaining tablespoon of cold butter until melted and incorporated. Untie the legs, and remove and discard garlic, thyme, and lemon. 5. Carve, and serve gravy on the side.
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