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Elections 2026: Reform

UK and the Greens Enter the Local Mainstream (at Last)

This May, around 20 million people across the country will have the opportunity to head to the polls and give their verdict on the performance of each major party.

Last year, with around 1,600 seats in play, we witnessed the rise of Reform at a local level, with the Conservatives and Labour taking significant losses. This year, with more Labour Councillors defending than any other party, we expect to see the current party of government take a significant hit.

This set of elections are also several orders of magnitude bigger than last year, made bigger still following the Government U-turn for Council areas where they were due to be postponed due to Local Government Reorganisation (LGR). 5,066 Councillors are to be elected across 136 authorities, as well as 129 members of Scottish Parliament, and 96 members of the Senedd.

Key Contacts

For further information, please contact:

Charlie Gilmartin

Associate, Strategic Engagement

E: cgilmartin@iceniprojects.com

T: 07789 506 190

Theo Taylor

Consultant, Strategic Engagement

E: ttaylor@iceniprojects.com

T: 07353 107 443

Where are elections happening?

32 London Boroughs: all out elections

32 Metropolitan Boroughs: 16 all out elections, 16 in “thirds”

18 Unitary Authorities: 6 all out elections, including the new East and West Surrey unitaries established in shadow form, 12 “in thirds”

6 Mayoral elections: In 5 London Boroughs, and Watford

6 County Councils: all out elections

48 District Councils: 3 all out elections, 7 for half, 38 “in thirds”

Devolved National Parliaments: Scotland and Wales

What’s the Outlook?

Despite local elections being locally focused, the national picture will be on many voters’ minds.

An historically unpopular Labour Government fuelled by ongoing scandals, U-turns and controversial economic policies, coupled with a Conservative Party unable to recover fully from the General Election, will see a further departure from our more familiar twoparty system.

Alongside the ongoing march of Reform who impressed last year, these elections will see Green and Independent Councillors grow significantly in number, especially in urban areas.

As voter preferences become more fragmented, councils are increasingly likely to end up under No Overall Control (NOC). NOC councils have real implications for coalition-building and decision making, and have steadily increased as a proportion of councils across the nation since 2018.

We may well be left with more questions than answers on May 8th. Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens, Reform UK and Independent groupings all have the potential to make localised gains. However, if too many parties each hold too few seats to form a working majority, coalitions are likely to become increasingly unstable, or even impossible to form.

This problem will likely be seen more clearly in Wales than anywhere else. Plaid Cymru and Reform are close at the top of the polls, and Labour a very distant third. This will mean horse trading between parties in order to scrape together coalitions, and confidence and supply deals in order to pass budgets – creating significant uncertainty for the strategic direction of some.

County Council Elections

County Council elections will be held in Essex, Hampshire, Norfolk, Suffolk, East Sussex and West Sussex.

Two of the key battle grounds will be in Essex and Suffolk, both capturing the continued rise of Reform through the UK’s political ranks.

Essex: Reform GAIN

Margaret Thatcher’s target voter demographic was always ‘Basildon Man’. Essex is historically a Conservative stronghold, with Conservative rule only experiencing a few disruptions since the council’s establishment in 1974.

This election is likely to produce the Conservative’s worst ever result in Essex. As part of the Devolution Priority Programme, the Conservative-ran council delayed elections in 2024 and is claimed to have attempted to lobby the Government in favour of a second delay this year, though this has been disputed.

The election delay was highly unpopular and interpreted as an attempt to avoid accountability. Essex residents may have this in mind when heading to the polls, to punish the Conservatives locally to Reform UK’s benefit. Reform UK has consistently campaigned in favour of holding elections.

Other factors propelling Reform UK is the party’s position on the matter of migration. Migration has always registered high as an issue of importance to Essex, with Reform UK seen as most credible on this issue ahead of polling. Despite it bearing little relevance to County Council administration, it is one example

where national issues are increasingly featuring at a local level alongside the likes of balancing budgets.

A Reform UK-led Essex would seek to reverse Local Government Reorganisation in Essex if victorious – but the legal avenues available to them following the issuing of a decision notice this March are very limited.

Suffolk: Reform GAIN

Suffolk has been Conservative territory since 2005 – save for a short hiatus from 2013 to 2017 – but with the party losing councillors in defections to Reform over recent years and 24 of the existing 45 councillors standing down, that era is set to come to an end.

These elections were due to be postponed due to Local Government Reorganisation but were reinstated in February, giving candidates a shorter window of time to mobilise. Most of the new councillors taking up these 70 seats will only serve for two years before the Council is abolished as LGR reaches its conclusion, limiting their ability to make significant change.

The Conservatives arrive at this election with no favourable national tailwind and years of local governance that has generated frustration rather than loyalty. They can only afford to lose nine seats to maintain control, and with current projections this seems unlikely.

In 2021, the Greens became the official opposition party in coalition with the Lib Dems and Independents – under Leader Andrew Stringer. They have continued to gain support across the county in recent years, taking Mid Suffolk Council in 2023 and returning the area’s first Green MP, Adrian Ramsey in Waveney

Valley in 2024. Indeed, County Council Leader Matthew Hicks is expected to lose his seat to the Greens this time around.

Nevertheless, Reform UK has campaigned hard across the county and the electoral conditions driving gains across the East of England read across to Suffolk much as with Essex. The party currently has six seats on the Council, having gained all six through by-elections and defections. In one of the most recent, Reform’s former General Election candidate for Lowestoft June Mummery won a seat on the Council in December with a significant 49% of the vote.

Opposition to Reform UK however is strong and likely to be shown in the Green vote. Reform UK (or indeed the Greens) would need to gain 29 seats to take control of the County Council. If Reform are to win, they can anticipate a robust opposition at County Hall.

Unitary Authority and Metro Borough Elections

West Surrey: NOC, Liberal Democrats Largest Party

West Surrey is not a conventional county council election. Voters here are electing a shadow unitary authority, a body created through Local Government Reorganisation that will, once fully established, absorb the functions of both Surrey County Council and the existing district councils beneath it.

West Surrey sits firmly in the party’s southern England heartland: leafy, commuter-belt, the kind of territory where the collapse of Conservative support since 2019 has been most visible. An area once regarded a stable platform for ambitious Tory politicians like Michael Gove and Dominic Raab has seen the Liberal Democrats steadily build a credible and now dominant electoral base, reflecting a wider shift among affluent, graduate-heavy electorates.

The Liberal Democrats already control three of the councils being absorbed into the new authority – Guildford Borough Council, Woking Borough Council and Surrey Heath Borough Council – and are the largest party in Waverley Borough Council. That provides them with both organisational strength and a proven coalition of support heading into this contest.

Reform will feature and will take votes, particularly in the less affluent parts of the area such as Spelthorne, but West Surrey does not offer the same demographic conditions as other parts of the country where the party has performed more strongly. The immigration issue is less prominent here, and Reform’s ceiling is correspondingly lower – meaning its impact is more likely to be felt in splitting the Conservative vote than translating into significant seat gains.

The Conservatives will hope that local name recognition and residual loyalty deliver some seats, but their national brand no longer holds the same confidence in the minds of the public. This is particularly acute in commuter-belt areas where tactical voting, especially among anti-Conservative voters coalescing behind the Liberal Democrats, has become more entrenched in recent election cycles.

Local dynamics add further complexity. Planning, housing delivery and concerns around overdevelopment remain highly salient issues, particularly in Guildford and Woking, and continue to favour parties able to position themselves as defenders of local character. At the same time, recent financial challenges at Woking Borough Council have sharpened the focus on governance and delivery, increasing scrutiny on all parties seeking to lead the new authority. A strong tradition of residents’ associations adds a further layer of unpredictability, with well-organised independent candidates capable of disrupting party gains in key divisions.

The Liberal Democrats are well organised, well-funded and highly motivated. Their strength at district level, combined with an ability to target resources effectively, puts them in a commanding position. They may fall short of a majority – particularly depending on the performance of independents and residents’ groups –but are strongly positioned to emerge as the largest party in a no overall control result.

Birmingham: NOC, multi-party Marginal

The election for England’s second city will be one of the closest of the night. The Council has the most seats in England, and also by far the most candidates – more than 600. What makes Birmingham unique beyond its size is its diversity. All prominent political groups – Labour, Conservative, Reform,

Green, Liberal Democrats, and Independents – are expected to win a meaningful number of councillors. Expect the postelection map of Birmingham to be something of a Joseph’s Technicolour Dreamcoat.

Accordingly, it’s incredibly hard to say which party will emerge as the largest, and what the coalition formation arithmetic will look like.

Labour arrives with a majority won in 2022, but the Council’s bankruptcy, bin strikes and the Section 114 notice issued in 2023 have caused reputational catastrophe, and the party carries that burden into every ward contest. Voters who have backed Labour in Birmingham for generations have been given a reason to look elsewhere.

Where they look will vary by neighbourhood. Reform will make inroads in the white working-class communities of the outer ring, areas like Erdington and Kingstanding where the party’s national message lands hardest. The Liberal Democrats and Greens will compete strongly in the more affluent, educated wards, with Moseley, Edgbaston and Harborne all in play. The Conservatives should defend areas such as Sutton Coldfield.

Birmingham’s large and politically diverse Muslim communities add a further layer of complexity. Independent candidates aligned with Gaza solidarity campaigns performed strongly at the 2024 general election in Birmingham, and that energy has not dissipated. Several wards in the City Centre are expected to be won by Independents, many of them former Labour Councillors.

London Borough Elections

Hackney: NOC, Greens Largest Party

A model of how the Greens and Independents can squeeze out Labour in one of their historic strongholds, Hackney is a bellwether seat for Zack Polanski’s resurgent Greens.

Defining issues of the campaign have not only been (similarly to Birmingham) the war in Gaza, but also the more localised debate of Low Traffic Neighbourhoods (LTNs). This issue has been incredibly polarising, with all parties using it to challenge Labour across the Capital. The Greens have found it hard to balance their environmentalist roots with opposing an environmentalist policy for political gain. Their messaging in Hackney has focused on the implementation rather than the concept of LTNs.

There are Independents in the mix too. The Hackney Independent Socialist Collective, or HISC, look set to win in Victoria after it was announced the Greens would cooperate with the new left-wing group.

Hackney will host a Mayoral election as well as a Council election. Return candidate Zoe Garbett is forecast to win the Mayoralty comfortably. She currently sits on the London Assembly where housing has emerged as a key interest of hers. She campaigns for rent controls and opposes luxury development, firmly in line with modern Green Party principles. The playbook here is one which applies to many other London boroughs the Greens expect not only to be competitive in, but to gain, including Lewisham, or potentially places like Waltham Forest, Haringey and Lambeth.

Westminster: Conservative GAIN

The Conservatives enter this election as underdogs challenging to reclaim lost ground. Labour seized control of the council for the first time in 2022 in a result that shocked many. That result was always likely to prove a high-water mark.

The national mood has shifted, and not in Labour’s favour. Westminster’s electorate is transient and profoundly wealthy in parts, and the areas that swung to Labour in 2022 did so under incredibly tight voting margins. The Conservatives have campaigned hard on local issues - street cleanliness, licensing, and the character of the West End where Labour’s record in office has received mixed reviews.

Reform may take some votes amongst some of the proscribed right-wing intelligentsia, but Westminster is not a real target nor does its demographics lend well to the party’s central offer. The Lib Dems and Greens will feature in specific wards, particularly in the north west of the borough but lack the campaign presence to threaten across the council.

The Conservatives, despite the residual apathy towards them nationally, should emerge as the largest party and reclaim control of arguably their most symbolically significant local authority in England. Their hope will be that Westminster can be the springboard for reviving their party brand.

Havering: Reform GAIN

If there was one London borough to act as Reform’s beachhead into the capital, it was always Havering. Sitting on the eastern edge of Greater London, bordering Essex and

sharing much of its political culture, Havering has long been an outlier. Predominantly white, working class, and Leave-voting; the borough has never quite felt ‘London’.

Reform have leant into that narrative. Leading the charge is their newest MP, Andrew Rosindell in Romford, who has raised the prospect of a ‘Hexit’ referendum for Havering to join Essex, in the hope this will propel his party’s chances.

The incumbent Havering Residents’ Association (HRA) will not disappear. They are still popular and could, on a good night, curtail a Reform majority. However, current leader Cllr Ray Morgon announced he won’t contest this election in a blow for the HRA, made worse by the Chair Cllr Gillian Ford refusing to identify a successor because “It would be incredibly foolish to announce a leader, only for them to lose their seat”. This statement is not what you’d expect from a party going into these elections with confidence, giving credence to the view that Reform should replace the HRA as the leading party.

District Council Elections

Brentwood: NOC, Conservatives Largest Party

Brentwood is a curious example of a local authority hosting elections this May for its one of very few Liberal Democrat/ Reform battlegrounds.

Sitting in the Essex commuter belt, Brentwood contains two quite distinct political communities under one council roof. The more affluent, suburban wards such as Shenfield which voted Conservative for decades before 2019 and have since drifted towards the Lib Dems; versus more working-class areas where Reform’s message on immigration and political disillusionment has been compelling. The result is a council with two distinct political brands competing, with the Conservatives caught awkwardly in the middle.

Notwithstanding, the Conservatives being yesterday’s news in Brentwood, their presence may be saved by lower structural churn, primarily as a result of this being a thirds election, and will likely emerge as the largest single party. The Conservatives and Reform will likely work together here in coalition.

Reform boasts big names in Brentwood. Their only incumbent is Cllr Russell Quirk, a Talk TV host who won a by-election in the Conservative stronghold of Hutton South. He is challenging the ECC division, where the Conservative incumbent and Deputy Leader of ECC, Cllr Louise McKinlay, is standing down - likely to avoid the embarrassment of losing to Quirk. The most highprofile Reform candidate at these election is former Conservative Leader of the Council, Chris Hossack. Challenging in Hutton North, he is expected to win a seat on the Council and is a

challenger for Deputy Leader should Reform enter into coalition with the Conservatives.

Hartlepool: NOC, Labour Largest Party

Hartlepool will be a bellwether for Reform’s continued success in the historic ‘Red Wall’. Use of such a term feels dated already – the area hasn’t been solidly red for some time now. It is almost exactly 5 years since the by-election for the parliamentary constituency of Hartlepool took place, in which Conservative Jill Mortimer won the seat from Labour with 51.9% of the vote and a swing of 16%; the largest ever swing towards an incumbent governing party in recorded UK by-electoral history. Whilst Labour did regain most of its northern strongholds in the 2024 General Election, 2025’s locals saw them take another step backwards, losing Durham and Doncaster to Reform.

Labour goes into this “thirds” election in a strong position, controlling a majority. They won most of the seats available last election in 2024, but this was when Labour was still riding high in the polls and before the rise of Reform. Hartlepool Labour’s election communications have focused on maintaining frozen core Council Tax, a 15% cut in business rates for pubs, free breakfast clubs in every primary school and strict new controls on HMOs. Local Reform campaigners point to a failure of the Labour Council with regard to housing issues, anti-social behaviour, community spirit and family safety.

Reform have long held the white working class as its ‘hero voter’; an archetype which lent its vote to Labour providing necessary change in 2024, and are now likely to win their vote off the back of this group feeling let down. It is likely that Reform will win most of the 12 out of 26 seats on the Council up for election this year,

stripping Labour of their majority and leaving the Council in No Overall Control.

Devolved Parliaments

Scotland: Hung, SNP Largest Party

Looking further North, Scotland will host its every 5-year elections to its devolved Parliament. Holyrood has been led by the SNP since 2007, but only once have they won a majority, in 2011.

Since coming just shy of a majority in 2022, the SNP have had a tough time. Three leaders – Nicola Sturgeon leaving in scandal, Humza Yousaf presiding over the collapse of the SNP / Green coalition (or Bute House Agreement), and now John Swinney. Swinney has steadied the ship however, and polling places the Nationalists firmly at the top; a commendable recovery from their poor General Election result in 2024.

It’s unlikely they will win an outright majority though, with Reform, led by Lord Malcolm Offord, projected to win a significant number of seats; as well as Anas Sarwar’s Labour Party managing to some degree in detaching itself from an unpopular Westminster operation. The SNP will likely be just a few seats short, requiring another conversation with the only other nationalist party expected to win a notable number of MSPs – they’re previously not-so-happy bed fellows, the Scottish Greens.

Wales: Hung, Plaid Cymru / Reform Marginal

‘Labour wins in Wales’ used to be as obvious a statement as ‘the Pope is Catholic’. Not so in 2026. Labour’s domination in the Senedd is expected to end in a dramatic re-shaping of the political landscape.

Polls place Plaid Cymru and Reform clear at the top, with Labour in a very distant third.

The vote for the new First Minister following the election will be fascinating. Although Labour won’t win many MS’s, they could well be king makers. Whether Reform or Plaid win the most seats, both will require votes from other parties, or abstentions, to form a government. Labour has historically worked with Plaid to form a government, but that relationship has soured. Current FM Eluned Morgan is unlikely to accept being a junior partner to a nationalist party, but equally won’t want to see Reform in power. If Reform end up as the largest party, and Labour abstains in the vote for a First Minister – there is a real possibility of a Reform government in Wales. Perhaps more likely is the unprecedented re-run of the election if no First Minister can be agreed. Expect seriously tough political negotiations in Cardiff Bay.

Conclusion

Historically, if you chose not to vote Conservative or Labour at elections, your alternative was to vote Liberal Democrat, or perhaps the SNP in Scotland. However, with research from The Elections Centre showing candidate lists are longer than ever, there is increasingly a party out there for everyone, on the one or two issues they may care about most.

The increasing rejection of the Conservative/Labour duopoly has already been observed in local government, with the upward trend of No Overall Control (NOC) councils revealing a gradual weakening of two-party control over time in a way general election results cannot. But the 2026 elections feel different, not just because we know that Reform and the Greens will be in for a good night. It is because our politics appears to be more atomised and stratified across categories like socio-economic status, age, geography and ethnicity, with former ‘broad churches’ like Labour losing their flock to both the left in places like Hackney, and the right in places like Hartlepool.

The most recent national polling shows the gap between the largest four parties narrowing in ways we have not seen before, with the Lib Dems also holding double digit support. Whilst this national polling does not fully read across to local or devolved government, it sets the conditions for weaker political leadership, particularly in more urbanised areas where there are a greater mix of interests to account for. Navigating the landscape to secure planning outcomes where more fragmented communities exist will inevitably become more tactical.

It is also true that we may see political entrenchment in other more homogenous communities, likely to coalesce around a particular

policy platform (see Essex for Reform, SNP for Scotland). However, whilst these areas may deliver more stable government, their views towards planning and development tend to be ideologically driven, with Greens expecting greater public sector delivery, and Reform UK more resistant to community change.

One thing however is certain – an unpredictable election year will filter through into a less predictable political landscape and the planning challenges that accompany it.

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